₦airaland Forum

ADC Is About to Implode and Peter Obi Holds All the Cards

The opposition's 2027 dream is crumbling. And the architects of this disaster have names.

Let me tell you what just happened. The Federal High Court in Abuja slammed the gavel and declared Senator Nenadi Usman the legitimate leader of the Labour Party. Julius Abure, the man who overstayed his welcome and turned the party into his personal fiefdom, is officially finished. INEC has been ordered to recognize reality.

But this isn't just about Labour Party housekeeping. This is about the survival of Nigeria's opposition. This is about whether we get a real contest in 2027 or another coronation for Bola Tinubu.

Peter Obi just got handed a nuclear option. And the greedy, shortsighted politicians running the ADC are about to find out what happens when you push a man with options into a corner.

## The Zoning Betrayal

Let's call it what it is. The ADC is trying to rig its own primary before it even starts.

State chairmen are out there singing the same song. No zoning. Open primary. Let the best man win. We all know what that means. Let the man with the deepest pockets win. Let the man who has been buying politicians for three decades win. Let Atiku Abubakar have his seventh shot at a presidency he will never win.

Peter Obi saw this coming. He warned them publicly. He called the coalition unstable. He said the agreements were unsigned. He demanded they settle the zoning question before it tears everything apart.

What did the ADC do? They told him to make up his mind. They said zoning is not on the table. They treated the man who delivered over six million votes in 2023 like an inconvenience.

The arrogance is breathtaking. The stupidity is criminal.

Obi's Masterstroke

Everyone thought Peter Obi burned his bridges when he showed up at Nike Lake Resort on December 31st to declare for the ADC. Everyone thought he had abandoned Labour Party and thrown in his lot with Atiku and the recycled politicians club.

Everyone was wrong.

Listen to what Obi actually said that day. I am not decamping. I have been with this coalition from the go.

He joined a coalition. He did not join a party. He did not tear up his Labour Party membership card. He kept his options open while everyone assumed he had closed them.

That is not desperation. That is chess while everyone else is playing draughts.

Now look at the board. Nenadi Usman, a woman who stood with Obi against Abure's tyranny, is now the legally recognized leader of Labour Party. Governor Alex Otti, the man who hosted the meeting that removed Abure, is now Labour Party's National Leader. Datti Baba Ahmed, Obi's running mate who stuck with Labour Party while others fled, is positioning himself within the structure.

The Labour Party didn't collapse when Obi walked toward the ADC. It reorganized under people loyal to him. It waited. And now it has legal backing from the highest courts in the land.

Peter Obi has a political insurance policy that Atiku Abubakar cannot buy, cannot destroy, and cannot ignore.

The Prophetic Warning

Hakeem Baba Ahmed is not a man given to wild predictions. When he speaks, smart people listen. This week he went on Channels Television and delivered a verdict that should terrify everyone in the ADC.

The ADC will bleed after its convention because almost certainly former Vice President Atiku will win the ticket, and when he does, some people will walk out. It will be severely damaged.

Some people will walk out.

Stop pretending you don't know who he is talking about. Peter Obi will walk. Rotimi Amaechi will walk. Every southerner who joined this coalition believing in the promise of power rotation will walk. And they will take their supporters, their structures, and their votes with them.

The ADC will be left with Atiku Abubakar, his money, his baggage, and his proven ability to lose elections.

The 2023 Crime Scene

We need to talk about what happened in 2023 because the same criminals are about to commit the same crime.

Bola Tinubu won the presidency with 36.61 percent of the vote. Barely more than a third of Nigerians who voted chose him. He didn't win. The opposition lost.

Atiku Abubakar got 29.07 percent. Peter Obi got 25.40 percent. Add those numbers together. That is 54 percent. That is a landslide victory for the opposition if they had been united. Instead they split the vote and handed Tinubu the keys to Aso Rock.

The whole point of the ADC coalition was to prevent this from happening again. United we stand. One candidate. One platform. One mission to remove Tinubu.

But here we are, watching the same script play out. Atiku wants the ticket. The ADC machinery is clearing the path for him. Peter Obi is being told to fall in line or get out. The southerners who believed in this coalition are being told that zoning doesn't matter, that competence should decide, that the best man should win.

We know how this ends. Atiku gets the ADC ticket. Obi goes back to Labour Party. The opposition splits again. Tinubu wins again. Nigeria loses again.

The only people who can't see this coming are the ones causing it.

Atiku's Curse

Someone needs to say this plainly. Atiku Abubakar cannot win a presidential election. He has proven this six times. He is about to prove it a seventh time.

This man has been running for president since 1993. Datti Baba Ahmed said it perfectly. When I was doing my NYSC, Baba Atiku was an aspirant. An entire generation of Nigerians has grown up watching this man lose.

He lost to Obasanjo. He lost to Yar'Adua. He lost to Buhari. He lost to Tinubu. He has crossed from PDP to APC to PDP to ADC chasing the same dream that keeps slipping away.

And every time he loses, he takes the opposition down with him.

The APC knows how to beat Atiku. They have beaten him twice. They know his playbook. They know his weaknesses. They know which of his allies can be bought. They know exactly where to hit him.

Datti Baba Ahmed warned the ADC. If you bring out Atiku, they know how to work against Atiku. You need a candidate they can't understand, they don't know where to catch. That is how to win an election.

Peter Obi was that candidate in 2023. He came from nowhere and won Lagos State in Tinubu's own backyard. He mobilized millions of young Nigerians who had given up on politics. He built a movement that scared the establishment so badly they had to rig the results in broad daylight.

The ADC has a candidate the APC fears. They are about to throw him away for a candidate the APC has already defeated twice.

This is not politics. This is self sabotage.

The Obidient Army

The ADC seems to think that if they give Atiku the ticket, Peter Obi's supporters will simply transfer their loyalty. They seem to think the Obidient Movement was about Labour Party, not about Obi himself.

They are dangerously wrong.

Dr Yunusa Tanko, National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement Worldwide, has made the position clear. Wherever he goes, that's where we are going.

Those six million voters in 2023 didn't vote for a party logo. They voted for Peter Obi. They voted for a new kind of politics. They voted against the exact kind of recycled, transactional, money bag politics that Atiku Abubakar represents.

If Obi walks back to Labour Party, they walk with him. If Obi tells them ADC betrayed the South, they will believe him. If Obi says Atiku and his cronies care more about power than about Nigeria, they will remember every dismissive statement, every call to abandon zoning, every arrogant assumption that their votes could be inherited.

The Obidient Movement is not a political party. It is a political insurgency. And you cannot buy an insurgency. You cannot bribe it. You cannot tell it to make up its mind and expect it to comply.

The Verdict

The ADC has one choice left. Zone the ticket to the South. Honor the agreement that brought this coalition together. Give Peter Obi or another credible southern candidate the nomination. Go into 2027 united and give Tinubu the fight of his political life.

Or they can do what Nigerian politicians always do. Let greed win. Let Atiku's money talk. Let the convention become an auction. Watch Peter Obi walk away. Watch the coalition collapse. Watch the opposition split. Watch Tinubu celebrate.

Every day they delay on zoning, they are writing Tinubu's second term into existence. Every statement dismissing Obi's concerns is a gift to the APC. Every move toward an open primary is a step toward opposition suicide.

The Labour Party is ready. The court has spoken. Nenadi Usman is in charge. Alex Otti is leading. The structures are intact. Peter Obi has somewhere to go.

The question is not whether Obi has options. He clearly does. The question is whether the ADC will give him a reason to stay.

I have watched Nigerian opposition politics for years. I have seen them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory over and over again. I have seen brilliant opportunities wasted by ego, greed, and shortsightedness.

What is happening in the ADC right now is the most predictable disaster in Nigerian political history. Everyone can see it coming. Everyone knows how it ends. And yet the people in charge seem determined to drive off the cliff anyway.

When Tinubu wins in 2027, remember this moment. Remember who refused to zone. Remember who told Peter Obi to make up his mind. Remember who chose Atiku's seventh failed campaign over a united opposition.

History will judge them. Nigerians will judge them. And they will have no one to blame but themselves.

visit Avalanche Media blog for more
https://designsteve.github.io/Avalanche-Media-Blog/article.html?slug=how-atiku-s-greed-is-about-to-hand-tinubu-a-second-term

Sense is always far from the average obi supporter

It must be obi or nothing else

Abeg na secret cult una be, don't people have the right to their aspirations

And why are you people always looking for who and what to blackmail

Primaries dey ground, make una begin politicking like amaechi has started doing una choose online blackmail

This is so funny.

The way some people make up laws and decide to impose them on everyone else as if they are God.

So Atiku Abubakar has no right to contest?

So Rotimi Amaeachi has no right to contest?

So nobody else has any right to contest except your candidate, because you are the only one in the world and everybody must do as you say?

Does this actually make sense to you??

The labour party has recognised the Nenadi faction of LP and Turaki is now the recognised Chairman of the PDP. Obi is not being held down in the ADC against his will. The ADC will conduct a transparent primary to select its presidential candidate and no one will step down for anyone, except by their will. Obidients didn't even know Obi was part and parcel of the ADC until he publicly declared it in Enugu. It will be best to manage your expectations lest you get disappointed.

avalancheMedia:
ADC Is About to Implode and Peter Obi Holds All the Cards

The opposition's 2027 dream is crumbling. And the architects of this disaster have names.

Let me tell you what just happened. The Federal High Court in Abuja slammed the gavel and declared Senator Nenadi Usman the legitimate leader of the Labour Party. Julius Abure, the man who overstayed his welcome and turned the party into his personal fiefdom, is officially finished. INEC has been ordered to recognize reality.

But this isn't just about Labour Party housekeeping. This is about the survival of Nigeria's opposition. This is about whether we get a real contest in 2027 or another coronation for Bola Tinubu.

Peter Obi just got handed a nuclear option. And the greedy, shortsighted politicians running the ADC are about to find out what happens when you push a man with options into a corner.

## The Zoning Betrayal

Let's call it what it is. The ADC is trying to rig its own primary before it even starts.

State chairmen are out there singing the same song. No zoning. Open primary. Let the best man win. We all know what that means. Let the man with the deepest pockets win. Let the man who has been buying politicians for three decades win. Let Atiku Abubakar have his seventh shot at a presidency he will never win.

Peter Obi saw this coming. He warned them publicly. He called the coalition unstable. He said the agreements were unsigned. He demanded they settle the zoning question before it tears everything apart.

What did the ADC do? They told him to make up his mind. They said zoning is not on the table. They treated the man who delivered over six million votes in 2023 like an inconvenience.

The arrogance is breathtaking. The stupidity is criminal.

Obi's Masterstroke

Everyone thought Peter Obi burned his bridges when he showed up at Nike Lake Resort on December 31st to declare for the ADC. Everyone thought he had abandoned Labour Party and thrown in his lot with Atiku and the recycled politicians club.

Everyone was wrong.

Listen to what Obi actually said that day. I am not decamping. I have been with this coalition from the go.

He joined a coalition. He did not join a party. He did not tear up his Labour Party membership card. He kept his options open while everyone assumed he had closed them.

That is not desperation. That is chess while everyone else is playing draughts.

Now look at the board. Nenadi Usman, a woman who stood with Obi against Abure's tyranny, is now the legally recognized leader of Labour Party. Governor Alex Otti, the man who hosted the meeting that removed Abure, is now Labour Party's National Leader. Datti Baba Ahmed, Obi's running mate who stuck with Labour Party while others fled, is positioning himself within the structure.

The Labour Party didn't collapse when Obi walked toward the ADC. It reorganized under people loyal to him. It waited. And now it has legal backing from the highest courts in the land.

Peter Obi has a political insurance policy that Atiku Abubakar cannot buy, cannot destroy, and cannot ignore.

The Prophetic Warning

Hakeem Baba Ahmed is not a man given to wild predictions. When he speaks, smart people listen. This week he went on Channels Television and delivered a verdict that should terrify everyone in the ADC.

The ADC will bleed after its convention because almost certainly former Vice President Atiku will win the ticket, and when he does, some people will walk out. It will be severely damaged.

Some people will walk out.

Stop pretending you don't know who he is talking about. Peter Obi will walk. Rotimi Amaechi will walk. Every southerner who joined this coalition believing in the promise of power rotation will walk. And they will take their supporters, their structures, and their votes with them.

The ADC will be left with Atiku Abubakar, his money, his baggage, and his proven ability to lose elections.

The 2023 Crime Scene

We need to talk about what happened in 2023 because the same criminals are about to commit the same crime.

Bola Tinubu won the presidency with 36.61 percent of the vote. Barely more than a third of Nigerians who voted chose him. He didn't win. The opposition lost.

Atiku Abubakar got 29.07 percent. Peter Obi got 25.40 percent. Add those numbers together. That is 54 percent. That is a landslide victory for the opposition if they had been united. Instead they split the vote and handed Tinubu the keys to Aso Rock.

The whole point of the ADC coalition was to prevent this from happening again. United we stand. One candidate. One platform. One mission to remove Tinubu.

But here we are, watching the same script play out. Atiku wants the ticket. The ADC machinery is clearing the path for him. Peter Obi is being told to fall in line or get out. The southerners who believed in this coalition are being told that zoning doesn't matter, that competence should decide, that the best man should win.

We know how this ends. Atiku gets the ADC ticket. Obi goes back to Labour Party. The opposition splits again. Tinubu wins again. Nigeria loses again.

The only people who can't see this coming are the ones causing it.

Atiku's Curse

Someone needs to say this plainly. Atiku Abubakar cannot win a presidential election. He has proven this six times. He is about to prove it a seventh time.

This man has been running for president since 1993. Datti Baba Ahmed said it perfectly. When I was doing my NYSC, Baba Atiku was an aspirant. An entire generation of Nigerians has grown up watching this man lose.

He lost to Obasanjo. He lost to Yar'Adua. He lost to Buhari. He lost to Tinubu. He has crossed from PDP to APC to PDP to ADC chasing the same dream that keeps slipping away.

And every time he loses, he takes the opposition down with him.

The APC knows how to beat Atiku. They have beaten him twice. They know his playbook. They know his weaknesses. They know which of his allies can be bought. They know exactly where to hit him.

Datti Baba Ahmed warned the ADC. If you bring out Atiku, they know how to work against Atiku. You need a candidate they can't understand, they don't know where to catch. That is how to win an election.

Peter Obi was that candidate in 2023. He came from nowhere and won Lagos State in Tinubu's own backyard. He mobilized millions of young Nigerians who had given up on politics. He built a movement that scared the establishment so badly they had to rig the results in broad daylight.

The ADC has a candidate the APC fears. They are about to throw him away for a candidate the APC has already defeated twice.

This is not politics. This is self sabotage.

The Obidient Army

The ADC seems to think that if they give Atiku the ticket, Peter Obi's supporters will simply transfer their loyalty. They seem to think the Obidient Movement was about Labour Party, not about Obi himself.

They are dangerously wrong.

Dr Yunusa Tanko, National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement Worldwide, has made the position clear. Wherever he goes, that's where we are going.

Those six million voters in 2023 didn't vote for a party logo. They voted for Peter Obi. They voted for a new kind of politics. They voted against the exact kind of recycled, transactional, money bag politics that Atiku Abubakar represents.

If Obi walks back to Labour Party, they walk with him. If Obi tells them ADC betrayed the South, they will believe him. If Obi says Atiku and his cronies care more about power than about Nigeria, they will remember every dismissive statement, every call to abandon zoning, every arrogant assumption that their votes could be inherited.

The Obidient Movement is not a political party. It is a political insurgency. And you cannot buy an insurgency. You cannot bribe it. You cannot tell it to make up its mind and expect it to comply.

The Verdict

The ADC has one choice left. Zone the ticket to the South. Honor the agreement that brought this coalition together. Give Peter Obi or another credible southern candidate the nomination. Go into 2027 united and give Tinubu the fight of his political life.

Or they can do what Nigerian politicians always do. Let greed win. Let Atiku's money talk. Let the convention become an auction. Watch Peter Obi walk away. Watch the coalition collapse. Watch the opposition split. Watch Tinubu celebrate.

Every day they delay on zoning, they are writing Tinubu's second term into existence. Every statement dismissing Obi's concerns is a gift to the APC. Every move toward an open primary is a step toward opposition suicide.

The Labour Party is ready. The court has spoken. Nenadi Usman is in charge. Alex Otti is leading. The structures are intact. Peter Obi has somewhere to go.

The question is not whether Obi has options. He clearly does. The question is whether the ADC will give him a reason to stay.

I have watched Nigerian opposition politics for years. I have seen them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory over and over again. I have seen brilliant opportunities wasted by ego, greed, and shortsightedness.

What is happening in the ADC right now is the most predictable disaster in Nigerian political history. Everyone can see it coming. Everyone knows how it ends. And yet the people in charge seem determined to drive off the cliff anyway.

When Tinubu wins in 2027, remember this moment. Remember who refused to zone. Remember who told Peter Obi to make up his mind. Remember who chose Atiku's seventh failed campaign over a united opposition.

History will judge them. Nigerians will judge them. And they will have no one to blame but themselves.

visit Avalanche Media blog for more
https://designsteve.github.io/Avalanche-Media-Blog/article.html?slug=how-atiku-s-greed-is-about-to-hand-tinubu-a-second-term

When ADC chooses Amaechi as their flag bearer which they will, you will still cry.

Obi should return to LP where Usman will give him free ticket.

The funny part is that after the election if tinubu wins na obi supporter go receive insult pass from tinubu so to avoid the shade is better obi deputize atiku Atikuobi ticket na sure bet if obi no gree coalition don scatter b that

I also ask if Adc gives amaechi ticket will obidient support him u people should stop this southern turn u only wants obi or nothing

Chinonye2022:
The funny part is that after the election if tinubu wins na obi supporter go receive insult pass from tinubu so to avoid the shade is better obi deputize atiku Atikuobi ticket na sure bet if obi no gree coalition don scatter b that

When ADC give Amaechi the ticket, your eye go clear.

keep underrating Amaechi's immense influence within the ADC.

Your Obi will be heading back to LP laslas but unbeknownst to him, the Abure faction within the party will go to court to insist on primaries.

Hausa determine most of Nigeria elections
Hausa no trust Igbo
Most Hausa blived shey,if Igbo become president,they will suffer them,
Scared of dividing
Igbo presido nah dog dreams
Can't come to past

Truthissupreme:
Sense is always far from the average obi supporter

It must be obi or nothing else

Abeg na secret cult una be, don't people have the right to their aspirations

And why are you people always looking for who and what to blackmail

Primaries dey ground, make una begin politicking like amaechi has started doing una choose online blackmail

naptu2:
This is so funny.

The way some people make up laws and decide to impose them on everyone else as if they are God.

So Atiku Abubakar has no right to contest?

So Rotimi Amaeachi has no right to contest?

So nobody else has any right to contest except your candidate, because you are the only one in the world and everybody must do as you say?

Does this actually make sense to you??

Well said!.. don’t mind those irresponsible fellows, trying to gaslight and guilt trip other aspirants!

Very irresponsible!

Peter obi is not serious, you want to be president yet you don't want to participate in primary election with others.

yarimo:
Peter obi is not serious, you want to be president yet you don't want to participate in primary election with others.

And that only exposes his tyranny in the making.

So by the slimmest margins he gets to Aso Rock, he will not have any favours for his party men.

This is what he did in LP after they gave him free ticket and he refused to endorse or campaign alongside other candidates from the party from other regions.

This is same Obi that was caught horse trading LP gubernatorial candidate for Rivers in exchange that Wike help him rig the Presidential elections for the state in his favour.

The man is a tyrant hoping on his mob support as absolute.

Peter Obi is the weapon fashioned against Atiku Abubakar

DomPerignon:
And that only exposes his tyranny in the making.

So by the slimmest margins he gets to Aso Rock, he will not have any favours for his party men.

This is what he did in LP after they gave him free ticket and he refused to endorse or campaign alongside other candidates from the party from other regions.

This is same Obi that was caught horse trading LP gubernatorial candidate for Rivers in exchange that Wike help him rig the Presidential elections for the state in his favour.

The man is a tyrant hoping on his mob support as absolute.

Lol. Well-said. His main claim to fame today is that he has the most toxic, most anarchic and most radical supporters, by far, out of all those who want to be President of Nigeria.

WizardOfNG:
Lol. Well-said. His main claim to fame today is that he has the most toxic, most anarchic and most radical supporters, by far, out of all those who want to be President of Nigeria.

His support has greatly withered since the last elections and he is left with his tribal and IPOB demented mob who only dare make noise online as their nuisance levels will not be tolerated irl like in 2023.

Obi is a spent force.

A one hit wonder.

A foluke one night stand.

yarimo:
Peter obi is not serious, you want to be president yet you don't want to participate in primary election with others.

Tinubu became president without debating his opponents, remember?

ottersberger:
Tinubu became president without debating his opponents, remember?

How does debate and primaries sound the same to you ?

ottersberger:
Tinubu became president without debating his opponents, remember?

is debating part of any electoral act ? Or you hard people just saying debate but you don't know the meaning?

I support obi but it does not mean it is his birth right. He must not be the president. He should stick with the coalition. Anyone the primaries produces is ok.If he leaves the coalition I won't bother supporting him because SW president will rig it again and say go to court. It is only under the coalition we can defend our votes.
SW president who is Yoruba president and his people so much want oni to leave the coalition. They are the ones playing all the card in thr corrupt judiciary. Though I know obi is never going back to labour party again

yarimo:
is debating part of any electoral act ? Or you hard people just saying debate but you don't know the meaning?

I guess party primary where votes are purchased in US dollars is a part of the electoral act.

I have maintained this sentiment jointly shared by a number of people as well.

Atiku remain the biggest singular threat to the opposition political parties and by extension democracy in Nigeria. People don't actually want him. His presence and ambition keeps disrupting the political scenery.
The moment he shelve his ambition now, the apathy you are currently seeing will evaporate.

benardtotti:
How does debate and primaries sound the same to you ?

Your empty head, tongue tied president cannot debate. El-Rufai is no longer there to answer questions on internal security. Man is a cunning chicken.

yarimo:
Peter obi is not serious, you want to be president yet you don't want to participate in primary election with others.

Will Yoruba president allow primaries in apc

brodalikeme:
I have maintained this sentiment jointly shared by a number of people as well.

Atiku remain the biggest singular threat to the opposition political parties and by extension democracy in Nigeria. People don't actually want him. His presence and ambition keeps disrupting the political scenery.
The moment he shelve his ambition now, the apathy you are currently seeing will evaporate.

Wouldn't it just be easier for Obi to defect back to LP and contest on his own? Atiku will not step down. Do not mistake noise for substance. Atiku’s supporters are not on nairaland and they don't own twitter accounts. They only have PVCs and do not do voter apathy as a form of protest. Be rest assured that they will vote. When the North gave Tinubu 5.6m votes in 2023, it wasn't because they hated Atiku. It was because they owed Tinubu for having supported Buhari in 2015. Northerners largely keep their words until betrayed. If you support them, they will return the favour unfailingly. But they have the leverage as far as numbers go. Obi got 99% of Southern votes but it wasn't enough. He needs that handshake across the Niger but nothing goes for nothing. Tinubu has since lost Northern support and he has only lost it to one man. Politics is not an emotional sport.

ottersberger:
Tinubu became president without debating his opponents, remember?

Why should he waste his time with cho cho cho empty barrels?

Streetinvestor2:
Will Yoruba president allow primaries in apc

Obidients always take pride in deceiving themselves, they want to have their cake, & eat it too.

AvalancheMedia claims Gringory Obi never officially left the LP, but in all the elections of late, just to mention a couple i.e. from the just concluded Anambra governorship election, to the upcoming election in Abuja, he has been campaigning for the ADC?

https://www.nairaland.com/8604333/peter-obi-leads-adc-kicks

Who handed Tinubu a first term?
Please, find another avenue of deception biko. Nigerians never voted for Tinubu in the first place.

If Tinubu stole a mandate #1, he will keep stealing till he dies. No credible elections in Africa.

Don’t blame Atiku please.

You got it wrong to have think that both AA and Obi will gather the total votes they got last election.

naptu2:
This is so funny.

The way some people make up laws and decide to impose them on everyone else as if they are God.

So Atiku Abubakar has no right to contest?

So Rotimi Amaeachi has no right to contest?

So nobody else has any right to contest except your candidate, because you are the only one in the world and everybody must do as you say?

Does this actually make sense to you??

Your amala imput is not needed here. Go to any Tinubu thread and praise sing him there as your tribal god that he is.

You people are irritating with the kobo kobo corner corner sense you think you have.