₦airaland Forum

The banner was already hanging when Abdulkarim Lawan walked into the hall in Maiduguri. It stretched wide behind the podium at the North-East Zonal Public Hearing of the All Progressives Congress (APC), filled with familiar faces: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, governors from the zone, and senior party officials.

But one face was missing. Lawan, Speaker of the Borno State House of Assembly and the longest-serving speaker in Nigeria’s history, noticed it instantly. The Vice President of the Federal Republic, Kashim Shettima; a son of Borno, former governor, and the most senior APC figure from the North-East, was nowhere on the banner.

When Lawan stood up to speak, it was not on the constitutional amendment agenda. His voice carried irritation and disbelief.

“Why would the Vice President’s picture not be included in the banner?” he asked. The hall answered with loud applause. What could have been dismissed as a design oversight now felt like a deliberate act, and a provocation.

Why This Absence Hit Harder

This was not the first time Shettima’s image had disappeared at a party event in the region. A similar exclusion at a gathering in Gombe State last year had sparked a fracas that disrupted proceedings entirely. But Maiduguri was different. It was home. And it came at a moment when Nigeria’s political class has begun quietly positioning for 2027.

Within the APC, a troubling speculation has gained ground: that President Tinubu may consider replacing Vice President Shettima on the party’s next presidential ticket, largely because of renewed debates around the Muslim–Muslim ticket and external pressure linked to religious balancing.

The omission of Shettima’s image gave physical form to what had until then existed mostly as whispers.

Inside the Party: Fear of a Costly Gamble

Abayomi Nurain Mumuni, an APC chieftain and security expert who served on the intelligence and security team of the Tinubu/Shettima Presidential Campaign Council in 2023, warned that replacing Shettima on religious grounds would be a dangerous political gamble.

According to Mumuni, the northern region currently lacks a Christian candidate with the political structure, grassroots acceptance and national reach needed to compensate for Shettima’s electoral value.

He argued that loyalty and consistency, qualities he said Shettima has demonstrated, are stabilising forces in governance.

Mumuni stressed that while calls for religious inclusivity are legitimate, altering a winning ticket could undermine internal cohesion, disrupt governance, and weaken the APC’s chances in 2027.

The North-East Pushes Back

For many in the North-East, the idea of dropping Shettima is viewed not as strategy but as betrayal. That sentiment was echoed by the APC Youth Parliament.

Speaking to journalists in Bauchi, its chairman, Kabiru Garba Kobi, dismissed rumours of Shettima’s replacement as divisive and dangerous, warning that such a move could cost President Tinubu massive support in the region.

Kobi insisted that Shettima remains the most unifying political figure in the North-East and a vital bridge between the region and the presidency. He cautioned against listening to voices he described as political opportunists who neither contributed to the APC’s victory in 2023 nor demonstrated loyalty to the party.

Foreign Pressure and Local Sensitivities

Behind the scenes, State House Aso Villa insiders acknowledge growing concern about foreign scrutiny, particularly from the United States, over Nigeria’s religious balance. Statements by U.S. President Donald Trump about Christian persecution in Nigeria have intensified debates within the ruling party.

Some party figures argue that Nigeria’s security leadership already reflects religious diversity, citing appointments across the armed forces, intelligence services and defence establishment. Others reject any suggestion that Nigeria’s electoral decisions should be influenced by foreign expectations.

The tension has further complicated internal discussions, blurring the line between domestic political calculation and external pressure.

North-Central Steps Back, Publicly

Amid speculation that the North-Central zone is pushing for a Christian vice-presidential candidate, the North-Central APC Forum issued a strong denial. The forum said it had no interest in the vice-presidential slot and was focused instead on contesting the presidency in 2031. The group warned that removing Shettima would be a grave political miscalculation that could shrink Tinubu’s vote base and hand the opposition a strategic advantage in 2027.

Public Reactions

“(It) is a potentially disruptive speculation, a kite being flown in political conversations, which could affect the fortunes of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the relationship between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Vice President, Senator Kashim Shettima, as Nigerians begin the dress rehearsal towards the 2027 general election,” said Reuben Abati, journalist and former presidential spokesperson.

“Any attempt to replace Senator Kashim Shettima would amount to a grave political miscalculation that could cost President Tinubu massive support in the north, especially the north-east,” said Kabiru Garba Kobi, President, APC Youth Parliament.

“Bola Tinubu is probably done with Shettima. He knows a Muslim-Muslim Ticket will not fly in 2027. He will need a Christian most likely from North Central to try to please that Region but, everything will fail in the end,” said Prof. Olusore Afuye, a political advocate.

“It has already been decided: Shettima will not be on the ticket for the 2027 presidential election. This isn’t really about the Muslim–Muslim ticket; it’s more about internal issues that occurred about a year ago,” said Engr. Arinze Cajet, political commentator.

The Silence at the Centre

Vice President Kashim Shettima has not responded publicly, not to the banner, not to the rumours, not to the speculation swirling around his political future.

But in Nigerian politics, silence is rarely empty. Sometimes it is a restraint. Sometimes it is a calculation. And sometimes, it is the calm before a reckoning.

What began as a missing photograph in Maiduguri has grown into a test of loyalty, power and political memory. As 2027 draws closer, the APC must decide whether altering a familiar equation will save it, or undo it.

OLABAMIJI99:
Same thing I have been hammering on


https://www.nairaland.com/8564653/2027-tinubu-must-drop-shetimma

AMINDA:
Tinubu can try it but he will lose Northern Muslim votes without necessarily gaining christian votes. Tinubu and Shettima have long fallen out with each other. They are just going through with the motions and putting up a farce. Tinubu attempted to rid himself from Shettima and potentially set him up against the masses by banishing him away to the 25 billion naira V.P residence built by Wike but Shettima stubbornly refused to relocate. All the additional drama of tax bill, comments on Rivers state of emergency, etc are all pointers to the nature of their strained relationship.

fergie001:
His fear I understand is that the house may be bugged so he hasn't slept there a night.

Seeplusplus:
This is just strategy on the part of Tinubu to garner sympathy from the Muslim North. Nobody wants to replace any Vice Presidential candidate.

Even if that's the case, Hannatu Musawa is inconsequential in the scheme of things, so she can't be commenting on such sensitive issues without the backing of the presidency.

It's all a game

Talking about this Muslim Muslim ticket thing is the exact reason why those illiterates will go out to vote Tinubu en mass. Tinubu knows and that's why he has started the narrative early

Only dumb Obi and Atiku's supporters will rejoice over this because like their masters, they lack foresight

AMINDA:
No be una again? When Tinubu eventually replaces Shettima, you will be here again with another justification from the WhatsApp group on why that's a master strategy.

OLABAMIJI99:
Same thing I have been hammering on


https://www.nairaland.com/8564653/2027-tinubu-must-drop-shetimma

johannu:
The mentality that it must be Hausa or Fulani Muslim is why some people advocate that Nigeria must divide. Let the Hausa and Fulani be on their own and rule over themselves since they're 'born to rule.' They can't continue to Lord over others as if others are slaves. I advise Tinubu to choose a northern Christian governor in his second term as running mate.

Terrible people. When it is the turn of the north to produce the president, it must be Hausa or Fulani Muslim, and when also it is their turn to produce the vice president, it must be Hausa or Fulani Muslim. So, a Northern Christian can never be president or vice president.

AMINDA:
Did anybody put a gun to his head and insist that he must choose an Hausa/Fulani muslim? Did anybody force him when he was chasing after Kwankwaso like a jilted lover and courting him to become his Vice (before Trump)? Didn't he do so because he needed to secure his 5.6m votes from the North? No one is forcing him to choose a hausa/fulani muslim as Vice. Just as no one can force anyone to vote how they please. We are in a democracy and Tinubu is not a victim. He's an accomplice.

johannu:
You have a point, but it's not Tinubu but the Northern Muslims who would not want the northern Christians to amount to anything. Yakubu Gowon, Theophilus Danjuma and other prominent northern Christian leaders fought for the north, and now the northern Muslims hate the Gowon's people or the Danjuma's people to be president or vice president.

AMINDA:
You people only know divisive politics. Tinubu chose a Northern Muslim in 2023 because he needed Northern Muslim votes. It was 100% his decision and he did it with his clear eyes. You don’t have to pitch Muslims against Christians now that the ticket is no longer viable.

AMINDA:
You are correct. He fears his moves are being monitored. The trust deficit between the president and V.P is too wide for Tinubu to continue with him in 2027. Tinubu never trusts his Vice. He changed deputies twice as governor of Lagos.