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Nigeria set to overtake South Africa as Africa’s top contributor to global growth in 2026

Business Insider Africa
01 February 2026 12:00 AM

Nigeria is set to emerge as Africa’s leading contributor to global economic growth in 2026, surpassing South Africa, according to the latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), signalling a gradual shift in the continent’s economic landscape.

Nigeria is forecasted to surpass South Africa as Africa's leading contributor to global economic growth by 2026, according to the IMF.

An estimated 1.5% of global real GDP growth in 2026 will come from Nigeria, placing it among the world's Top 10 contributors.

Nigeria's economic resurgence follows currency adjustments, removal of fuel subsidies, and fiscal reforms, despite existing structural challenges.

South Africa's growth is constrained by power shortages, logistical issues, and trade frictions, leading to a relatively reduced global economic contribution.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Nigeria will account for 1.5 percent of total global real GDP growth in 2026, placing it among the world’s Top 10 contributors and making it the only African country on the list.

In previous IMF outlooks, South Africa had ranked ahead of Nigeria in Africa’s share of global growth, supported by its larger nominal economy.

Nigeria’s weaker performance over the past two to three years, affected by currency instability, inflation, and policy uncertainty, had limited its contribution.

The 2026 projections mark a shift in Africa’s economic landscape, with Nigeria regaining momentum following recent reforms, while South Africa continues to face headwinds from low growth, power shortages, and trade pressures.


Nigeria’s Growth Outlook

The IMF forecasts Nigeria’s real GDP will expand by 4.4 percent in 2026, easing slightly to 4.1 percent in 2027.

The Fund attributes this outlook to exchange-rate adjustments, the removal of fuel subsidies, and efforts to stabilise public finances, supported by expanding domestic demand.

Despite this growth, key domestic indicators; including inflation, exchange-rate stability, real wages, employment, and purchasing power, remain under pressure.

While Nigeria’s projected 1.5 percent contribution to global GDP growth signals progress, structural and economic challenges persist.

.....

South Africa’s Growth Outlook

South Africa, Africa’s largest economy by nominal GDP, is projected to grow 1.4 percent in 2026 and 1.5 percent in 2027.

Growth remains constrained by power shortages, logistical bottlenecks, weak private investment, and high unemployment, which have weighed on industrial output and domestic consumption.

Chronic underinvestment in Eskom (power) and Transnet (logistics), along with trade frictions and tariff-related uncertainty with major partners, including the United States, have further limited growth, particularly in manufacturing and mining.

......

Consequently, its projected real growth of 1.4 percent in 2026 is expected to contribute far less to global expansion than Nigeria, which is forecast to grow 4.4 percent over the same period.


Market Reaction

The projections have drawn attention from global business figures. Tesla CEO Elon Musk shared the IMF data on X, commenting that “the balance of power is changing.”

The remark was widely interpreted as highlighting a gradual shift in economic momentum away from Europe and the United States, historically driven by consumption, toward emerging economies such as China, India, and Nigeria, which are increasingly shaping global output.

mrvitalis:
Lmaooo once you See APC paid write up you just know

Nigeria GDP is not bigger than South Africa GDP we are 40% or more short off

Real GDP contribution is largely driven by population and not productivity

You know the painful part? APC guys know this but would still push the wrong narrative

Same when they started measuring GDP in PPP lol

helinues:
When I said both Egypt and South Africa are using old glory about their economy, some people didn't understand then.

South Africa is indebted, they can't do much while Egypt are exhausted financially with their new city in the desert

Btw, imagine someone below claiming high GDP is not by production but by population, abeg is South Africa having population than Nigeria?

How some people are hell bent not to see the development of Nigeria and also not worried about the way they have been sounding and behaving about good news about Nigeria should be something worrisome

seunmsg:
This news ordinarily should elicit optimistic and positive reactions from all sensible Nigerian. Since the IMF published the stats, folks who primarily come from the SE have done everything humanly possible to attack and condemn the news. While Chinese, Indians and nationals of other countries mentioned in the top ten went under the tweet to project their countries positively, these set of Nigerians who support Peter Obi went under the tweet to attract IMF and world of statistics.

South African and a lot of Europeans went under same tweet to bash their government for not doing enough to make the top ten. In fact, some Europeans appealed to IMF to present the EU as a country so that the EU can make the top ten. That’s how much other countries value the achievement. But in Nigeria, these haters are attacking everybody because Nigeria achieved what a lot of other countries are struggling to achieve. They are so pained and angry.

Sadly for them, our economic growth is on a very high trajectory. It is unstoppable. The country shall continue to get better and they shall continue to get angry.

seunmsg:
This news ordinarily should elicit optimistic and positive reactions from all sensible Nigerian. Since the IMF published the stats, folks who primarily come from the SE have done everything humanly possible to attack and condemn the news. While Chinese, Indians and nationals of other countries mentioned in the top ten went under the tweet to project their countries positively, these set of Nigerians who support Peter Obi went under the tweet to attract IMF and world of statistics.

South African and a lot of Europeans went under same tweet to bash their government for not doing enough to make the top ten. In fact, some Europeans appealed to IMF to present the EU as a country so that the EU can make the top ten. That’s how much other countries value the achievement. But in Nigeria, these haters are attacking everybody because Nigeria achieved what a lot of other countries are struggling to achieve. They are so pained and angry.

Sadly for them, our economic growth is on a very high trajectory. It is unstoppable. The country shall continue to get better and they shall continue to get angry.

simpleseyi:
.
No cry, no cry, no cry. But if you still want cry, then cry well well. Cry to sleep and wake up in tears

lawani:
The way GDP is calculated is wrong. Explain how it is possible for a country's GDP to reduce by fifty percent in one year when the people were not genocided.

helinues:
Because they are indebted to so many organizations, they can't borrow anyhow while they are not adjusting their tax rate.

The opposition have been against it.most especially Malema

lawani:
So that will now make the production in the country to go down by half in one year? I am referring to Nigeria and not SA

helinues:
Which new production have been going in South Africa for years now? South Africans are now having up Nepa issue, happening for 2 years now

Tell me which of their sectors is leading other African countries

lawani:
Did SA GDP reduce by fifty percent in one year? I am referring to Nigeria. SA may have its challenges but it is still the number one immigrant worker destination in Africa. Their tax to GDP ratio is not bad. Their budget is like 140 billion dollars for 50 million people. Their GDP can't be much higher than 500 billion dollars. They have one of the best public health care in Africa and they are fast becoming like western Europe. They are more or less a welfare state now just like western Europe

lawani:
The way GDP is calculated is wrong. Explain how it is possible for a country's GDP to reduce by fifty percent in one year when the people were not genocided.

seunmsg:
This news ordinarily should elicit optimistic and positive reactions from all sensible Nigerian. Since the IMF published the stats, folks who primarily come from the SE have done everything humanly possible to attack and condemn the news. While Chinese, Indians and nationals of other countries mentioned in the top ten went under the tweet to project their countries positively, these set of Nigerians who support Peter Obi went under the tweet to attract IMF and world of statistics.

South African and a lot of Europeans went under same tweet to bash their government for not doing enough to make the top ten. In fact, some Europeans appealed to IMF to present the EU as a country so that the EU can make the top ten. That’s how much other countries value the achievement. But in Nigeria, these haters are attacking everybody because Nigeria achieved what a lot of other countries are struggling to achieve. They are so pained and angry.

Sadly for them, our economic growth is on a very high trajectory. It is unstoppable. The country shall continue to get better and they shall continue to get angry.

bigpicture001:
If u studied economics, u will better understand

lawani:
GDP is total production in a country. Explain how it can reduce by half in one year in any country while the population is growing

bigpicture001:
If u understand why the GDP of the US is bigger than the GDP of china who has x4 of the size of the US population, then U will understand this concept

mrvitalis:
Lmaooo once you See APC paid write up you just know

Nigeria GDP is not bigger than South Africa GDP we are 40% or more short off

Real GDP contribution is largely driven by population and not productivity

You know the painful part? APC guys know this but would still push the wrong narrative

Same when they started measuring GDP in PPP lol

AMINDA:
Nigeria is the largest country in Africa in terms of population. It is only natural that we will make the largest contribution to global GDP from the continent.
..

seunmsg:
This news ordinarily should elicit optimistic and positive reactions from all sensible Nigerian. Since the IMF published the stats, folks who primarily come from the SE have done everything humanly possible to attack and condemn the news. While Chinese, Indians and nationals of other countries mentioned in the top ten went under the tweet to project their countries positively, these set of Nigerians who support Peter Obi went under the tweet to attract IMF and world of statistics.

South African and a lot of Europeans went under same tweet to bash their government for not doing enough to make the top ten. In fact, some Europeans appealed to IMF to present the EU as a country so that the EU can make the top ten. That’s how much other countries value the achievement. But in Nigeria, these haters are attacking everybody because Nigeria achieved what a lot of other countries are struggling to achieve. They are so pained and angry.

Sadly for them, our economic growth is on a very high trajectory. It is unstoppable. The country shall continue to get better and they shall continue to get angry.

lawani:
That is why I said GDP is wrongly calculated and it is not a correct measure of economic activity or economy size as it is

Ojuntana:
What drives economic activity in your view?
Is it population or demand?
What drives demand? Is it taste or purchasing power?

lawani:
So that will now make the production in the country to go down by half in one year? I am referring to Nigeria and not SA

lawani:
For example Britain's GDP is purportedly higher than the whole of Africa but list the things that Britain can buy more than the whole of Africa. If there is none, how then is the GDP bigger?