₦airaland Forum

Nigeria is projected to become the 3rd largest economy in Africa in 2026 from the 4th position it clinched last year, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025 edition), accessed via its datamapper, it was indicated that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices stood at about $285 billion in 2025, placing it behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.

South Africa topped the African ranking with a GDP of about $426 billion, followed by Egypt at $349 billion, and Algeria ranked third with $288 billion.

However, the IMF forecasts that Nigeria will overtake Algeria in 2026 as economic output rebounds, driven by higher oil production, improved foreign exchange liquidity and the impact of ongoing economic reforms.

According to the IMF’s projections, Nigeria’s GDP is expected to rise to $334 billion, putting it ahead of Algeria ($284 billion) and making it Africa’s third-largest economy, behind South Africa ($443 billion) and Egypt ($399 billion).

The lender’s outlook reflects expectations that recent reforms, including petrol subsidy removal, exchange-rate liberalisation and fiscal adjustments, will support medium-term growth, despite short-term inflationary pressures.

Africa’s largest economy’s position has shifted in recent years amid currency devaluations, rebasing exercises and macroeconomic headwinds across major economies on the continent. Nigeria in 2024 lost its status as Africa’s largest economy and dropped to fourth place after a series of Naira devaluations and wider reforms.

However, these appear to have brought about macro reliefs in the near term. On January 19, the IMF reviewed its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth rate upward to 4.4 per cent in 2026. The Bretton Woods organisation revised the rate upward from its initial projection of 4.2 percent.

Prior to that, on January 13, the World Bank also increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4 percent from the 3.7 percent forecast in June 2025.

The federal government expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026, supported by easing inflation, improved foreign exchange stability and continued fiscal reforms.

According to the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, the country’s inflation, which peaked above 33 per cent in 2024, declined to 15.15 per cent by December 2025, adding that foreign exchange volatility has eased, with the Naira trading below N1,500 to the Dollar, while external reserves rose to $46 billion.

He added that GDP growth averaged 3.78 per cent by the third quarter of 2025, with 27 sectors recording expansion.

AMINDA:
Are we supposed to celebrate a mere projection of overtaking Algeria from 4th to become 3rd?

AMINDA:
Are we supposed to celebrate a mere projection of overtaking Algeria from 4th to become 3rd?

Flangelo12:
Yes, we should.

We've overtaken 1.

Kemetian:
Hope some people will be able to sleep well tonight after reading such a 'terrible' news.

Zonefree:
Bandits slaughtereddd over 150 Nigerians two days ago...that should be your major concern at the moment.

Zonefree:
Bandits slaughtereddd over 150 Nigerians two days ago...that should be your major concern at the moment.

Kemetian:
Did you start a thread for it?

AMINDA:
Dollar rate has also "improved" from 1500 to 1450. Let's throw a party.

Flangelo12:
You really wish it was not improving.

Kemetian:
Hope some people will be able to sleep well tonight after reading such a 'terrible' news.

AMINDA:
Buhari handed over a number one GDP at 447 billion dollars to Tinubu. Three years later, we are now expected to celebrate an "improvement" to 334 billion dollars to overtake Algeria at third. The "reforms" are working indeed. The jokes write themselves.

AMINDA:
Lol. Flangelo12, do you even understand your own data? You simply proved how much Tinubu wrecked the economy within 3 years. Here's a better source in words.

https://businessday.ng/news/article/africas-powerhouses-10-largest-economies-on-the-continent-in-2023/

AMINDA:
Africa is the only continent where the most populous country is not the largest economy

helinues:
If you chose to remain sad about the positive news about Nigeria, that's your problem

Others should stop living because killing happened somewhere else bah

AMINDA:
Are we supposed to celebrate a mere projection of overtaking Algeria from 4th to become 3rd? Africa is the only continent where the most populous country is not the largest economy and that happened under Tinubu's watch. Buhari handed over a Nigeria that was the largest economy in Africa. Is Nigeria better-off or worse-off than we were 3 years ago on all metrics? The jury is out there. Tinubu should just take Nigeria back to where he met her. This is retrogression, not progress.

https://businessday.ng/news/article/africas-powerhouses-10-largest-economies-on-the-continent-in-2023/

AMINDA:
Dollar rate has also "improved" from 1500 to 1450. Let's throw a party.