₦airaland Forum

PRESIDENT Bola Tinubu’s fresh declaration, while hosting media executives at the Presidential Villa during Ramadan, that “Nigeria is back from the brink”, rings hollow. For millions of Nigerians grappling daily with hunger and hardship, it sounds less like reassurance and more like rhetoric.

It is not the first time the President has stretched optimism over a grim reality. In his October 1, 2025, broadcast, Tinubu told a bewildered country: “I am pleased to report that we have finally turned the corner. The worst is over.” That assertion, like the latest, struggles to withstand the weight of lived experience.

Clearly, the President is measuring the country’s health through the narrow lens of fragile macroeconomic gains, as Nigeria continues to bleed from deeper wounds—raging insecurity, grinding poverty, policy missteps, and a climate of governance uncertainty.

To be fair, Tinubu inherited a battered economy, but the economic reforms introduced at the outset of the administration in mid-2023, viz., the removal of petrol subsidy and the floatation of the naira, did yield measurable gains after the initial shocks, volatility, and instability.

Monthly allocations from FAAC surged past N2 trillion. Foreign reserves climbed to over $50 billion by late 2025, the highest in 13 years, with net reserves exceeding $34 billion, up sharply from $3.9 billion when Tinubu took office. Nigeria also secured a symbolic boost when the Financial Action Task Force removed the country from its Grey List.

After a bruising period that saw the naira tumble to about N1,738 in the official market and N1,900 in the parallel market by late 2024, down from N460/$ in mid-2023, the currency has since steadied, hovering between N1,350 and N1,450 in early 2026.

Yet, macroeconomic indicators, however encouraging, do not define progress. They are, at best, a fragment of the national story.


The true foundations of progress—security, massive investment in energy, logistics, infrastructure, health, and education—remain dangerously weak. Economic diversification, productivity, and value addition cannot take root without reliable and affordable electricity.

Nigeria still generates less than 5,000 MW, while the national grid continues its embarrassing cycle of collapses. In such conditions, growth is not merely constrained; it is throttled.

Little wonder, then, that the progress touted in official circles finds no echo on the streets. For ordinary Nigerians, life is a daily siege of rising prices, shrinking incomes, and deepening poverty that is fraying the fabric of families and communities.

It is therefore difficult for the average citizen to identify with the President’s claim that Nigeria is back from the brink. If anything, many feel the country is edging closer to the precipice.

Inflation may be easing on paper, but its sting remains sharp in markets and homes. Until the so-called improvements in macroeconomic indicators cascade into tangible relief—cheaper food, stable power, accessible healthcare—the narrative of recovery will remain detached from reality.

The business environment tells its own bleak story. Small and medium-sized enterprises are suffocating under the weight of high operating costs, limited access to credit, and punishing interest rates. Meanwhile, the productive sectors, those that should drive real growth, remain starved of investment.

The exodus of more than 15 multinationals, including Microsoft, Procter & Gamble, and GSK, between 2020 and 2025, underscores a deeper loss of confidence. The departure has reportedly cost the country no less than N94 trillion and about 20,000 jobs, both direct and indirect.


For the youth, the picture is even bleaker. Underemployment and informal work rates exceed 92 per cent, despite the revised methodology adopted by the National Bureau of Statistics in line with International Labour Organisation metrics. This is not a labour market recovering; it is one barely holding together.

Then there is security, the fundamental test of any state.

Barely three months after the Independence Day assurance that “the worst is over,” the Sokoto airstrikes of December 25 shattered that claim, exposing once again the government’s struggle to fulfil its primary duty: protecting lives.

Since then, terrorist groups have adapted, dispersing into forests and launching hit-and-run attacks on vulnerable communities. The pattern is chillingly familiar: strike, kill, vanish.

Nigeria ranks fourth in the Global Terrorism Index. The National Human Rights Commission recorded 2,266 killings in the first half of 2025, up from 2,194 in all of 2024. Vice-President Kashim Shettima has estimated that over 100,000 Nigerians have been killed, with millions displaced.

No country bleeding lives at that scale can credibly claim to be “back from the brink”.

Nor can one with 18.3 million children out of school and over 141 million people living in abject poverty. These are not just statistics; they are indictments.


The contradictions deepen in the social sector. Nigeria accounts for between 10 and 30 per cent of global maternal deaths, with estimates ranging from 576 to 1,047 per 100,000 live births.

This is staggering. It is not recovery; it is a system under a brutal strain.

The President must confront this reality squarely. Nigeria’s socio-economic fabric is frayed, its citizens weary, its promises overstretched. The macroeconomic picture may be improving, but a country cannot clap with one hand.

Until growth translates into security, jobs, stable power, and dignity for the majority, declarations of a comeback will remain what they are today: premature, disconnected, and unconvincing.

DeepSight:
Up to Richtaiwo, Seunmsg, WizardofNG, Image123 and other BATists to defend.

DeepSight:
Up to Richtaiwo, Seunmsg, WizardofNG, Image123 and other BATists to defend.

DeepSight:
Up to Richtaiwo, Seunmsg, WizardofNG, Image123 and other BATists to defend.

floss:
I think Nigerians deserve Tulumbu and Apc because if a full grown man can write these gibberish just because month is about to end so that he can be paid his monthly 30 k naira…

What exactly is the economic situation of dollar before Buhari handed over to Tulumbu ?

Why can’t Tulumbu take back dollar to what he met it ?

anonimi:
World Bank offers Nigeria forex rate advice, as Tinubu eyes N200/Dollar rate

April 23, 2023

The President-elect said he would work with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to *bring down the exchange rate to N200 in his first term.*

“My administration will collaborate with the Central Bank to harmonize the fiscal and monetary policy to achieve immediate stabilization of the value of the naira against the US dollars and other currencies and in the short term, strengthen the naira by boosting the supply of foreign currency and moderating demand.

“The short-term goal is to achieve a naira/dollar rate of 300 naira/US$ and gradually achieve a less than 200 naira rate over the next four years, Tinubu stated.

https://www.ripplesnigeria.com/world-bank-offers-nigeria-forex-rate-advice-as-tinubu-eyes-n200-dollar-rate/?amp

Muhammadu Buhari, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), has promised to ensure that the naira would be equal to the dollar in value if voted into office.

NAN reports that Buhari said this on Monday during the south-east presidential rally of the party at Dan Anyiam Stadium, Owerri.

“It is sad that the value of the naira has dropped to more than N230 to one dollar. This does not speak well for the nation’s economy,” he said.

He urged the people to vote for APC, noting that he would ensure that corruption was tackled headlong if elected.

https://www.thecable.ng/ill-make-naira-equal-dollar-says-buhari/amp

floss:
I think Nigerians deserve Tulumbu and Apc because if a full grown man can write these gibberish just because month is about to end so that he can be paid his monthly 30 k naira…


What exactly is the economic situation of dollar before Buhari handed over to Tulumbu ?

Why can’t Tulumbu take back dollar to what he met it ?

DeepSight:
Up to Richtaiwo, Seunmsg, WizardofNG, Image123 and other BATists to defend.

Dogalmighty17:
This is the most laughable thing I've read in a while

pdppower:
Which brink is Nigeria back from with epileptic power supply, insecurity, high transportation cost, high cost of living, poor housing facilities and so many uncountable woes Nigerians are going through now?
May Buhari continue to rot in hell for taking Nigeria 100 years backwards

DeepSight:
Up to Richtaiwo, Seunmsg, WizardofNG, Image123 and other BATists to defend.

These reforms, driven by pragmatism over ideology, meant Singaporeans sacrificed personal consumption and immediate political freedoms for industrial growth, infrastructural development, and, ultimately, high-income status.

Facing high unemployment, a lack of natural resources, and the departure of British forces, the government implemented strict policies focused on long-term survival rather than immediate popularity.

Image123:
Phewww, at last you can mention me without having to be banned for vile remarks.
i am not a BATist anyway. i support and respect the president, and will defend him against useless opposition like the ones presented so far. By 2031, God sparing our lives, i'll again support, respect and defend the next most credible candidate by assessment. That's how free democracy works. i understand most of you haven't had such experience before.
As for your article, yes, as at 2025, Nigeria had turned the corner and was out of the brinks/bottom. That's right to say and data supported it. Nobody says we've arrived. BTW, the discussion and context is largely economic. No one knew the US and Iran would be at war. Projections and budgetting were not made by any country or body with that in mind. All the folks forecasting percentages of growth didn't factor in the Strait of Hormuz. It's an all-things-being-equal statement.
As situation is, there must still be some level of optimism coming from any leadership. No one feels happier or more confident for instance, hearing a minister say things are beyond control or apologising without hope or solution. A good leader must inspire hope and confidence. It's unfortunate if that gets past you. Though understandable since your leader and mentor Obi only glories in scavenging for bad news and misery.

shox:
you suppose tell us about how the war affected power supply too.

Nastrademus:
This man is being deceived by his henchmen, it's either he's plain stupid, evil, wicked or he's a vegetable who doesn't know anything that's happening in the country but always expect his usual praise singers to tell him lies
This man is a clueless junkie

WizardOfNG:
There is nothing to defend before a people who don't understand the problem let alone be aware of solutions required.

Nigeria's problems toady are deeply entrenched and highly debilitating because they are the results of decades upon decades of leaders failing to do the right thing.

The main problems of Nigeria, plaguing us till today, arose when Government became a vendor of shortcuts, through introduction of subsidy to deal with problems in virtually every critical sector instead of taking the sincere and holistic path to solutions provisions which may be more arduous short-term but is best for medium to long term national development and growth.

We damaged the oil, power, education sector and even currency convertibility power of Naira with subsidies. We killed manufacturing and agro-export sector, once a great contributor, to the economy of Nigeria.

Steel and many other industry we allowed to become moribund while newer sources of great wealth, lithium mining for example, we are not in a position to control as we became poor failing to do the right things meaning we need foreign capital and expertise for extractive mining putting us in a weak position over control of our own endowment.

These are sad realities we could have avoided if we had leaders who committed to doing the right things at every stage of our development as a nation instead of seeking shortcuts always as we are predisposed to doing as a people.

Leaders needed to fix problems and keep Nigerians happy at the same time. Instead of choosing the path of tough love as is always done elsewhere globally, because that approach is proven to always lead to permanent and much greater national glory, our own leaders opted to put plaster over a serious infection with numerous subsidies.

We are where we are today because Tinubu, before Nigeria collapses totally, is trying to show the requisite tough love Nigerian needs that leaders before him did not have the sincerity, vision or political will to operate with.

I will say it and repeat it a thousand times for those who are into self-improvement via learning. Singapore, a former colony of the UK as Nigeria, were where we are today decades ago i.e a near failed third world nation.

Today they are a great and developed nation. I wish Nigerian can go and learn in details how they reached the laudable position they are in today so they see glaringly that visionary leaders of Singapore, beginning with lee Kuan Yew, understood the need for critical reforms that must be implemented to save Singapore.

Thankfully Singaporeans too largely understood the problems to appreciate the solutions required and, crucially, the need to make personal sacrifices so that reforms can provide a better future in the medium to long term for Singapore.

Today, It is not a better future Singaporeans are enjoying. It is a glorious future that has made Singapore the nation with one of the strongest passports in the world regularly voted one
of the top three nations anyone can live in on Earth.

It is up to Nigerians to try and learn the problems so they can appreciate solutions required and what they must do to assist those solutions achieve their aims of a glorious future for our nation and future generation.

You are educated Sir, unlike many Nigerians. Critically focus on what is quoted below related to how Singaporeans embraced reforms, even if reluctantly, to note you should be educating less-informed Nigerians about a need to sacrifice ifoe a greater future instead of joining them wielding lynch mob sticks.

Tinubu's Goverment, as is right to do, is "focused on long-term survival rather than immediate popularity" as all our previous leaders preferred. Crucial that educated Nigerians make this distinction