₦airaland Forum

As the countdown to the 2027 general elections begins in earnest, the intensity of political activities has increased.

With Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu set to complete his constitutionally permitted two terms, the race to succeed him is shaping up to be one of the most consequential political contests in the country.

With its massive population estimated at over 21 million, economic dominance as Africa’s second largest economy, and strategic importance in national politics, the choice of the next governor of Lagos State will reverberate far beyond its borders.

From party structures to political godfathers, technocrats to grassroots mobilisers, the emerging succession battle reflects both continuity and disruption within the state’s political architecture.

Since 1999, Lagos has been governed by a relatively stable political bloc, beginning with Bola Ahmed Tinubu, followed by Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode, and now Sanwo-Olu. This succession has largely been orchestrated within the same political family from Alliance for Democracy (AD) to Action Congress (AC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and now the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The continuity, according to analysts, has ensured policy stability, especially in infrastructure development, revenue generation, and urban planning. However, it has also sparked debates about internal democracy and the influence of political kingmakers. As 2027 approaches, these issues are once again coming to the fore.


The Ambode factor

Akinwunmi Ambode who was governor between 2015 and 2019, is the first to have spent only one term since the advent of the current dispensation.

He lost the return ticket on account of falling out with the leadership of the party over some irreconcilable differences. Ambode was accused of several sins, among which was his alleged decision to dump the state’s developmental plan. The former governor did not only lose the return ticket, he also lost out of the state’s political relevance.

After going out of circulation for a while however, the former governor is back within the progressives family. His name has been reinstated as a member of the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC), the group of elders within the APC family and the highest decision making organ of the party.

With Ambode’s return to the fold, there have been speculations of handing over the ticket to him to complete his second term. The speculation has been also fueled by his recent public appearances.


The rise of Hamzat

However, everything is still within the realm of speculation and if recent report is anything to go by that the leadership has settled for the incumbent Deputy Governor, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, it means Ambode might be compensated in another way at the federal level.

This also means that Hamzat would break the jinx and make history as the first Deputy Governor in Lagos to have succeeded the outgoing governor.

Weekend Trust reports that the GAC led by Chief Tajudeen Olusi at a recent meeting with the President agreed to field Hamzat as the next governorship candidate out of several other contenders including Ambode who have reportedly shown interest in succeeding Sanwo-Olu.

But despite serving only one term, analysts say Ambode left office with a reputation for aggressive infrastructural development, fiscal discipline, and urban renewal initiatives.

His administration recorded significant strides in road construction, environmental management, and civil service reforms. However, his political fallout with party leaders—widely believed to have cost him a second term—remains a critical factor.

In recent years, Ambode has maintained a relatively low political profile while rebuilding relationships within the APC. His supporters argue that he represents competence and unfinished business, while critics question whether the political establishment would fully trust his return.


Other aspirants line up

Other serious aspirants for the Lagos governorship ticket on the APC platform include Femi Gbajabiamila, former Speaker of the House of Representatives and current Chief of Staff to the President, Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa, Chief of Staff to Governor Sanwo-Olu, Tayo Ayinde, Private Secretary to the President, Hakeem Muri-Okunola, Senator representing Lagos East, Tokunbo Abiru, Commissioner for the Environment, Tokunbo Wahab, Olajide Adediran (Jandor), Minister of Education, Tunji Alausa, Samuel Ajose (SMA).

Virtually all the aspirants are considered as the President’s men who could be propelled to the highest level of governance in the state at the endorsement of Asiwaju.

For instance, within the growing network of trusted aides surrounding President Tinubu, one figure whose influence has steadily expanded is Hakeem Muri-Okunola. Known within government circles simply as “HMO,” Muri-Okunola has built a reputation as a discreet but powerful administrator.

Those in the President’s camp said the rise reflects the technocratic side of Tinubu’s political establishment.

Unlike many of the president’s allies who emerged primarily through electoral politics, Muri-Okunola’s ascent has been shaped largely by his bureaucratic expertise and administrative competence.

From being Head of Service at a young age, he enjoyed a rare meteoric rise in the service of Lagos civil service

Muri-Okunola’s background is deeply rooted in Nigeria’s political history. He is the son of the late Muritala Okunola, a respected Appeal Court judge.

Femi Gbajabiamila

Also, Femi Gbajabiamila has emerged as one of the most prominent figures within the Lagos APC family, rising through the ranks from Lagos politics to the pinnacle of national governance.

Gbajabiamila’s political rise began during the formative years of Tinubu’s political dominance in Lagos State.

Gbajabiamila’s political career reached a major milestone in 2019 when he emerged as Speaker of the House of Representatives.

As the 2027 election draws nearer, there have been speculations around the former Speaker as a possible successor to Governor Sanwo-Olu. How that will play out is still within the realm of speculations.

Mudashiru Obasa

Also in that category is the Speaker of the House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa, considered as one of the highly influential politicians in the state. He is not only the longest speaker in the House, he is also the longest serving lawmaker in the state assembly. His influence played out in 2025 when he was removed as the Speaker and he was able to overturn the impeachment. Analysts say only a strong politician could muster that power to reclaim his position.

Seyi Tinubu

Initially, no analysis of the politics of Lagos is concluded withoutthe mention of the name of the son of the President, Seyi Tinubu. But recently, there are speculations he has been told to soft pedal so as not to make the President look overbearing.

He is however said not to have completely given up more so as anyone that would assume office at this stage, apart from Ambode, would want to do two terms and that may alter his ambition.


Zoning and power rotation

One of the most critical factors that will shape the succession is zoning. Lagos politics has long operated an informal power-sharing arrangement among its three senatorial districts: Lagos West, Lagos Central, and Lagos East.

Sanwo-Olu hails from Lagos Central, while his predecessor, Ambode, is from Lagos East. Before them, Fashola (Central) and Tinubu (West) held sway. This rotational dynamic suggests that attention may shift back to Lagos West, the most populous and politically influential district.

If zoning holds, aspirants from Lagos West could have a strategic advantage. However, zoning in Lagos has never been rigidly enforced, and political pragmatism often overrides informal agreements. This can be confirmed if Hamzat gets the ticket as he hails from Epe, Lagos East Senatorial District. And if zoning is going to be strictly adhered to, Obasa who is from the West may have an upper hand, ditto Oladiran, popularly known as Jandor who was the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the last election.

Although Lagos has traditionally favoured candidates from within its established political family, there is always the possibility of an outsider disrupting the equation.

Opposition parties, particularly the Labour Party and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), may attempt to capitalise on voter dissatisfaction, especially among young and urban populations however the seeming disunity in the opposition has been their albatross.

The 2023 elections demonstrated that Lagos is no longer a guaranteed stronghold, as opposition forces made significant inroads. But observers say that momentum has since evaporated. Also the newly formed coalition, African Democratic Congress (ADC), where the former Labour Party candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour aligns, is virtually nonexistent.

It is not clear the extent of the acceptability of Jandor and his stance in the current electioneering. He has indicated interest in contesting. While he is also favoured by the zoning agitation having come from the West senatorial district, his past might be an albatross. There are some APC members who said he cannot be trusted.

A GAC member who spoke with our correspondent on the reported endorsement of Hamzat however said it is still within the realm of speculation.

He said, “I am not aware of the endorsement of any candidate. Yes we had a meeting with the President but we have not discussed it. What you have read is still speculation. If there is any recommendation like that we would look at it and we would not have an objection to anybody they picked. Some even said it was Ambode, some pushed Hamzat. The point is every group and individual members of the party are pushing forward their candidates. But at the appropriate time the right candidate would emerge.”

Speaking with Weekend Trust, a political analyst, Dr. Wunmi Bewaji said at the moment nothing is certain yet about the direction of the party over the governorship ticket.

However, he said what is certain is the fact that the next person to succeed the President would come from within the progressive family.

“I hope for the best person to emerge. I hope for the best person because we need, of course, continuity.

“So long as whoever is going to emerge, so long as it’s still going to come from the same progressive family, I don’t think there will be any problem. And the most important thing is for the individual to come from the same Lagos progressive family, that’s the most essential thing, so that there will be continuity. What Lagos has enjoyed over time is continuity.

“When you compare Lagos with other states, even in Western Nigeria, you will discover that this continuity has aided the smooth transition of government continuity of projects and all of that. So that’s what is essential.

“The Lagos party, the APC in Lagos is very strong, and they have a very strong structure. You have the governor’s advisory council and you have the party’s structure itself, which is well entrenched. So whoever comes is coming in to implement the policies and programs of the party, and not his own personal agenda.

“So I think whoever emerges, so long as he’s from the same political family, everybody will embrace him and support him to make sure he wins.”

On the chance of the opposition, he said, “There is no opposition in Lagos. There is no opposition. The former PDP candidate, Jandor, is back and he is now fully APC.

As 2027 draws closer, the interplay of zoning, party politics, federal influence, and voter sentiment will shape the outcome. What is certain is that the race will be closely watched and fiercely contested.

mrvitalis:
Lmaooo things like this make me laugh

Tinubu would anoint the next candidate and you guys have zero options than to support that person.. You guys don't have a choice

mrvitalis:
Lmaooo things like this make me laugh

Tinubu would anoint the next candidate and you guys have zero options than to support that person.. You guys don't have a choice

fatherjesse:
Nairaland has been silent on the teragassing of APC supporters in Abuja yesterday, something is not adding up

VOsimhen144:
Lagos state belongs to the Family and generations of Bola Ahmed Tinubu

mrvitalis:
Lmaooo things like this make me laugh

Tinubu would anoint the next candidate and you guys have zero options than to support that person.. You guys don't have a choice

Ofunaofu:
You’re right.
Bola Tinubu decides who governs them, they have no say and no choice.

Ironically, that’s his idea of being a democrat and progressive.

Validated:
- Seyi for Governor
- Folasade for Market women
- Yarimo for Nairaland
- Seunsng for Tiktok
- Frestuff for Rice loading and offloading
- Richtaiwo aka Helienus for unemployed N30k per post

osuofia2:
The odds favours Ambode

Hemanwel:
The next governor of Lagos State is Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour.

Bookmark this space!

Okoyeeboz:
Yet, they use 'I will take you to Lagos' to impregnate women from your side where you have a choice.

festacman:
Obafemi Hamzat will make an excellent governor as he is cebrebral and broad-minded but it is time for someone from Badagry to step in.

#Badagry lokan

fatherjesse:
Nairaland has been silent on the teragassing of APC supporters in Abuja yesterday, something is not adding up