Why The Usa Must Win This Iran Conflict - Foreign Affairs - Nairaland
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| Why The Usa Must Win This Iran Conflict by RoadMozart(op): 5:13pm On Mar 29 |
Anyone who finally controls the Strait of Hormuz will control the next 100 years in the world. This is a fight for the new world order. Why? The Strait of Hormuz controls 25% of world energy. And since its partial closure by Iran, oil prices have surged 100%. And Iran is asking that any tanker that wants to pass should trade its oil in Chinese currency instead of the dollar. They are trying to collapse the dollar. Because he who controls trade routes controls the world economy. In 1453, the Ottoman Empire captured Constantinople. They blocked the shipping harbor and taxed them and became the greatest empire at that time. Then the Europeans discovered another sea route around the Cape of Good Hope and took their goods through it. Then they bypassed the Ottoman chokepoint (checkpoint) and once the trade routes shifted, the Empire slowly declined. In 1956, another dominant power started losing credibility. It was the Suez Canal crisis. The major route for energy into Europe. Britain controlled the canal, but when Egypt nationalized it, Britain tried to take it back. When the United States failed to support it, the world understood that Britain was no longer the world power. In just one week, Britain lost 104 million pounds in their treasury, trying to defend their currency. Within weeks, they lost over 200 million pounds and never recovered. In 1950, the pound represented 90% of all global currency, but today it's less than 5%. In 1973, the oil embargo crisis exploded oil from $3 to $12 a barrel and USA inflation surged to 11%. Then the United States changed the world order by the Petrodollar system. They struck a deal with Saudi Arabia that oil must be priced in dollars and in return, the USA would provide protection in all Gulf regions. Then all nations were forced to hold the dollar in their foreign reserves if they wanted energy. This system will only work if the United States can protect the trade routes in the Gulf, and now that system is being tested by Iran. So if the USA can't control the Strait of Hormuz and Iran does, the world will believe that the USA has lost its power and the implications are massive. Before now, all world foreign reserves were in dollars, but now they have fallen to under 60% as money has moved to other assets. Now, China is quiet behind the scenes. But they have built a system of international payments that has already processed over $50 billion in transactions in their own currency, yuan. They are now buying 90% of Iran's oil in yuan. So when Iran says oil must be bought in yuan, it's a challenge to the US dollar dominance. If the USA fails to win this war and control Hormuz, China will become the next world power and the dollar will collapse. And a new empire will begin. That is why Trump is sending ground troops into the Middle East to protect the Gulf and to gain control of the strait and to defend the USA empire - the dollar, and USA will remain the world power for the next 100 years until another threats come by if they win. |
| Re: Why The Usa Must Win This Iran Conflict by Flangelo12: 6:06pm On Mar 29 |
If US owned the Strait, they would have tolled it. The same country that imposed Tariffs on the entire world last year would not have hesitated to do so. |
| Re: Why The Usa Must Win This Iran Conflict by masterfactor(m): 6:07am On Mar 30 |
Why should the USA control the Strait of Hormuz, is it located in USA territory??, |
| Re: Why The Usa Must Win This Iran Conflict by motayoayinde: 8:47am On Mar 30 |
The strait of Hormuz sits solidly in Iranian territory. Iran has always had the chance to toll it or refuse passage to its adversaries. They didn't, in spite of years of wicked sanctions and sponsored terrorism on its soil. The lion has awoken. Never again. |
| Re: Why The Usa Must Win This Iran Conflict by Razzness(m): 10:10pm On Mar 30 |
You really understand the implications of this war for the US. Any little miscalculation will be the beginning of their end as a world empire. That is why this war was avoided by all former US presidents in the last 40 years: because there is so much to lose and very little to gain. I believe that it is inevitable that the US will have to send in ground troops to try to topple the regime or at least secure the Strait of Hormuz, and in all honesty, I can't foresee how that will be possible. Iran will always be able to carry out insurgent attacks on the strait, which will invariably affect shipping. Nonetheless, America has just put itself in a difficult situation that could potentially be the end of the petrodollar system as we know it and with it the end of American hegemony. You suggested China could be the new global hegemon, but I really don't see that happening; Chinese society is very conservative and inward-looking, not really caring much about the rest of the world. They will dominate the global economy for sure, but I don't see them stepping into the role of America as "world police." Israel is a more likely contender for that role; they have the political will and means to do so. However, we might also see the reawakening of Europe, stepping back into their old role. Anything can happen, and it all depends on the outcome of this war. From an African perspective, all we can say is "May the best man win." RoadMozart: |
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