₦airaland Forum

Today, Nigeria’s National Assembly has approved yet another $6 billion loan for the administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

And now, some people are shocked at the rising debt burden. But honestly, why the surprise?

Isn’t this exactly what many wished for in 2022 when they said, “I want Nigeria to be like Lagos”?

Back then, I raised a simple concern: that Lagos, while celebrated as the richest state in Nigeria, was also the most indebted. That tweet triggered outrage. Many attacked it, dismissed it, and refused to see what was unfolding.

Today, that warning is no longer a prediction, but it is our reality.

Some of us saw this coming.

The Loan Reality (FACTS, NOT OPINIONS)

Since May 2023, Nigeria’s debt profile has expanded significantly.

Nigeria’s total public debt rose from ₦87.38 trillion (June 2023) to about ₦152.4 trillion (June 2025). That is a 74% increase in just two years.

With all these loans, Nigerians should expect visible transformation:
• Better hospitals
• Stronger schools
• Improved agriculture
• Functional infrastructure

But what do we see instead?
No fuel subsidy
No electricity subsidy
No single block of classroom built in 3yrs
No hospital built in 3yrs
Ministries struggling to function

Declining real wages (from roughly $100 value to about $40 in purchasing power)

Even basic government operations are reportedly underfunded.

So the question is simple: Where is the money going?

The FAAC Allocation Illusion (WHAT THEY DON’T TELL YOU)

We are told that state allocations have “increased.” But this is one of the biggest propaganda narratives in recent times.

Yes, allocations in naira may appear higher.
But in reality, when you factor in inflation and exchange rate collapse, states are receiving far less value than before.

Let’s break it down simply.
let’s remove emotions and focus on hard numbers, especially the one area many people are being misled about:

2014 (Before the decline began)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦600 billion – ₦700 billion. Exchange rate: ₦165/$1

Dollar value: $3.6 billion – $4.2 billion per month.

2022 (Before Tinubu took over)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦700 billion – ₦800 billion. Exchange rate: ₦430/$1 (official)

Dollar value: $1.6 billion – $1.9 billion per month.

2025 (with our darling master strategist)
Average monthly FAAC: ₦1.1 trillion – ₦1.3 trillion. Exchange rate: ₦1,500/$1 (average)

Dollar value: $730 million – $860 million per month.

So When They Say “Allocations Have Increased”, They are technically correct but economically misleading.

FAAC in naira: INCREASED
FAAC in real value: COLLAPSED by over 75–80% since 2014

Yet, some dodoyo and mumu governors continue to promote this illusion either ignoring basic economics or choosing politics over truth.

So Combine Both Realities:

Government is borrowing more than ever
States are receiving less real value than ever

Let’s take education as another case study.

Federal tertiary school fees have jumped from about ₦30,000 to over ₦300,000 in many cases. That’s an increase of over 900%–1000%.

There is no matching increase in educational quality or infrastructure.

Students are now being offered loans to survive a system that was made unaffordable by policy decisions.

Think about that. A government increases costs massively…

Then offers loans as a “solution.”

When I posted that tweet in 2022 about Lagos being both rich and heavily indebted, many didn’t understand the message.

It wasn’t just about Lagos.
It was about a pattern.
A model.
A direction for Nigeria.

Today, that pattern is playing out nationally.

We must start asking harder questions.
And more importantly, we must start demanding honest answers. Because at the end of the day:

We are all living with the consequences of what was once wished for.

Iree o!

Then why were 85% of the states owing salaries and contractors pre tinubu and they aren't owing now?

Lithiumite:
Then why were 85% of the states owing salaries and contractors pre tinubu and they aren't owing now?

Minimum wage was reduced from over $100 to about $40, that’s less than 50% of what they were earning before this calamity in Aso Rock, and you still want them to owe? As how na?

Lithiumite:
Then why were 85% of the states owing salaries and contractors pre tinubu and they aren't owing now?

What many of you fail to realize is that this government has effectively reduced workers’ real income by more than half.

Maybe it’s time we start asking the right questions: how many civil servants today can afford a tokunbo car or build a house with their salaries, compared to what was possible before Tinubu came into power?

How many can now pay school fees from their earnings without having to resort to dishonest means?

ibabz:
What many of you fail to realize is that this government has effectively reduced workers’ real income by more than half.

Maybe it’s time we start asking the right questions: how many civil servants today can afford a tokunbo car or build a house with their salaries, compared to what was possible before Tinubu came into power?

How many can now pay school fees from their earnings without having to resort to dishonest means?

He doesn't understand what you wrote bros. He won't understand it anyway.

He and his likes have refused to say that Nigerians earn lower than what they earned last before this regime. The financial burden of overheads of governors is lower now than before.

ibabz:
What many of you fail to realize is that this government has effectively reduced workers’ real income by more than half.

Maybe it’s time we start asking the right questions: how many civil servants today can afford a tokunbo car or build a house with their salaries, compared to what was possible before Tinubu came into power?

How many can now pay school fees from their earnings without having to resort to dishonest means?

You still haven't answered my question, how come the govs then were owing salaries when you said they were earning more in real terms while salaries are being paid now when they are earning less.....in 2014,the gej administration also confirmed that the fg was born money to pay salaries but we don't have that with thus govt.......can you explain the reason for this.

Elusive001:
He doesn't understand what you wrote bros. He won't understand it anyway.

He and his likes have refused to say that Nigerians earn lower than what they earned last before this regime. The financial burden of overheads of governors is lower now than before.

Thanks bro. I shouldn’t have engaged with someone thinking on that level, that was my mistake, but I’ve corrected it now.