₦airaland Forum

Currently, the numbers from the Nigerian economy suggest recovery, yet the lived reality of millions of citizens tells a different story. On paper, the economy is expanding at its fastest pace in three years. In reality, households continue to sink deeper into hardship, squeezed by a cost-of-living crisis.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.87 percent in 2025, with fourth-quarter output rising by 4.07 percent year-on-year. It is the strongest yearly performance since 2022 and, by conventional economic standards, a sign that the nation may finally be turning the corner after years of instability.

For many Nigerians, this recovery remains largely statistical.q “On paper, the economy is expanding at its fastest pace in three years. In reality, households continue to sink deeper into hardship, squeezed by a cost-of-living crisis.”

The economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu in 2023 were designed to correct deep structural distortions. The removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of the exchange rate were bold decisions long recommended by economists and international financial institutions. By allowing the naira to float and dismantling the opaque multi-tier currency system, the government signalled its willingness to confront longstanding economic inefficiencies.

There are signs that these reforms have begun to stabilise key macroeconomic indicators. External reserves have climbed to roughly $50 billion, the highest level in about 13 years, while the naira has strengthened modestly this year. Inflation, though still high, has begun to trend downward before the recent Gulf War, and investor confidence has shown some signs of improvement.

Despite the improving statistics, living standards have continued to deteriorate. Inflation over the past two years has eroded purchasing power, leaving both low-income households and the once-resilient middle class struggling. Basic necessities, particularly food and energy, have become increasingly unaffordable.

The price of staple foods illustrates the scale of the crisis. Meanwhile, wages have remained largely stagnant. Even as food inflation begins to moderate statistically, millions of Nigerians are still unable to afford adequate meals. The result is a painful disconnect between economic growth and human welfare.

A recent report by PwC projects that Nigeria’s poverty crisis will deepen further in 2026. The number of people living below the poverty line is expected to rise from 139 million to 141 million, about 62 percent of the population. That figure would represent the highest poverty level ever recorded in Nigeria.

Such projections underscore a troubling reality: economic growth that does not create jobs or raise incomes will do little to improve the lives of ordinary citizens. At the heart of the problem lies Nigeria’s weak productive base. While sectors such as finance and telecoms continue to expand, the industries that traditionally absorb large numbers of workers remain stagnant.

Manufacturing provides a telling example. According to the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, the sector accounts for roughly 80 per cent of employment opportunities across the value chain. Yet its contribution to real economic output remains painfully small.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, manufacturing accounted for only 1.13 percent of GDP in real terms, down from 1.25 percent in the preceding quarter. This decline reflects a broader loss of investor confidence in the sector.

Foreign investment in manufacturing plunged by more than 54 percent during the first nine months of 2025, even as overall capital importation into the nation rose sharply. Investors appear increasingly wary of structural obstacles such as high energy costs, poor infrastructure, currency volatility, and an unpredictable policy environment.

The consequences are predictable. When manufacturing slows, job creation suffers, an[sub][/sub]d when jobs disappear, poverty expands. On the other hand, when poverty rises, economic growth becomes disconnected from the welfare of the people it is supposed to serve. Nigeria’s challenge, therefore, is not merely to grow but to grow in a way that creates broad-based prosperity.

Adetilewa Adebajo, an economist, has argued that Nigeria must achieve sustained growth of between 8 and 10 percent yearly to significantly improve living standards. Such expansion cannot be driven by consumption or extractive industries alone. It must be anchored in productivity, industrialisation, and large-scale job creation.

Therefore, reviving the manufacturing sector should be a national priority. Reliable electricity, affordable credit for producers, improved logistics infrastructure, and stable trade policies are essential for restoring investor confidence. Industrial zones and export-processing hubs must move from policy documents to practical implementation.

Agriculture also requires urgent modernisation, as food insecurity remains one of the biggest drivers of inflation and poverty. Investment in storage facilities, irrigation systems, rural roads, and agricultural technology could dramatically increase food supply while creating millions of jobs across the value chain.

Equally important is the need for targeted social protection. Economic reforms often impose short-term pain before long-term gains materialise. Without safety nets, such as cash transfers, food subsidies for vulnerable households, and employment programmes, the poorest citizens will continue to bear a disproportionate share of the burden.

The real test of success will not be measured in GDP figures or foreign reserves but in whether ordinary Nigerians can afford food, find meaningful work, and regain hope. Growth that exists only in statistics is not prosperity. For Nigeria, the task ahead is to ensure that economic expansion finally translates into economic relief for all.

The real test of success will not be measured in GDP figures or foreign reserves but in whether ordinary Nigerians can afford food, find meaningful work, and regain hope. Growth that exists only in statistics is not prosperity.

For Nigeria, the task ahead is to ensure that economic expansion finally translates into economic relief for all.

demstone:
3YRS AGO 28 OF 36 STATES WERE NOT JUST BANKRUPT BUT CLDNT PAY SALARIES TODAY D STORY IS DIFFERENT..

SOME HOW SOME WAY MANY NIGERIANS DONE 4GET

EVEN INDEGENES OF ABIA, ENUGU, BENUE, ZAMFARA & OSUN WEY SUFFER PASS DON 4GET

demstone:
3YRS AGO 28 OF 36 STATES WERE NOT JUST BANKRUPT BUT CLDNT PAY SALARIES TODAY D STORY IS DIFFERENT..

SOME HOW SOME WAY MANY NIGERIANS DONE 4GET

EVEN INDEGENES OF ABIA, ENUGU, BENUE, ZAMFARA & OSUN WEY SUFFER PASS DON 4GET

nairalanda1:
Nigeria's prosperity does not benefit all the people, because Nigeria is not a producer economy. Nigeria is, and always has been , a resource dependent country. The problem is at the the end of the day, a resource dependent country with a large population is always going to have issues all the time.

The problem is, most Nigerians like it that way, they want a government that would share money and goodies to them. Problem is, that fuells corruption and inefficency well well.

Well, until we learn what the sane nations are doing, we won't ever develop or change anything

Yes, Tinubu, obi, atiku, and all our leaders past and present are the same. Because getting to being a productive nation is not what most people want and our leaders are a reflection of ourselves.

magoo10:
that your father feeds you everyday and you eat mama thank you is not a sign of prosperity.
Those States you mentioned are being spoon fed to merely survive with the governors embezzling the rest that is not economic prosperity.

demstone:
3YRS AGO 28 OF 36 STATES WERE NOT JUST BANKRUPT BUT CLDNT PAY SALARIES TODAY D STORY IS DIFFERENT..

SOME HOW SOME WAY MANY NIGERIANS DONE 4GET

EVEN INDEGENES OF ABIA, ENUGU, BENUE, ZAMFARA & OSUN WEY SUFFER PASS DON 4GET

MrPOTUS:
Shey this one get sense

States that are being spoonfed

GboyegaD:
This statement I hear from Nigerians makes me feel we deserve the kind of leaders we have. The reason why those in power clamor for more states to keep people in poverty.

demstone:
D BUDGET OF BENUE HAS GROWN FROM 155B B4 TINUBU TO ABT #700B
ENUGU 140B TO 1.5TRILL
ABIA 145B TO 1TRILL
NIGER 150B TO OVER 1TRILL ETC

U CALL DAT SPOON FEEDING OK OOO

I

demstone:
D BUDGET OF BENUE HAS GROWN FROM 155B B4 TINUBU TO ABT #700B
ENUGU 140B TO 1.5TRILL
ABIA 145B TO 1TRILL
NIGER 150B TO OVER 1TRILL ETC

U CALL DAT SPOON FEEDING OK OOO

I

EnkayDezign:
Budget doesn’t translate to actual cash in hand Mr.
CAPSLOCK.

grandstar:
It would take about 6 years before people can really fill the impacts of the present reforms.

7% economic growth is what is needed to provide enough jobs for those entering the labor market yearly.

Government could still fasten growth by reducing the present company tax rate from 25% to 19%. It should also reduce the current capital gains tax rate from 30% to 15%.

Lower taxes will accelerate an investment boom which could add an extra 1.5% - 2% to any forecasted number.

demstone:
3YRS AGO 28 OF 36 STATES WERE NOT JUST BANKRUPT BUT CLDNT PAY SALARIES TODAY D STORY IS DIFFERENT..

SOME HOW SOME WAY MANY NIGERIANS DONE 4GET

EVEN INDEGENES OF ABIA, ENUGU, BENUE, ZAMFARA & OSUN WEY SUFFER PASS DON 4GET

CodeTemplar:
I knew this would be the next phase of propaganda from you. Not surprised at all.

Some of you are nothing short of demonic in reasining faculty. So it is percentage cut in taxes that will inspire confidence when the projects prioritized have or threaten no immediate impact on the lives of the people. Those indistries you are eyeing to help fulfil your textvook fantasies are for their own profit alone. Tax cut will only save them their profit. Nothing more.

grandstar:
Low taxes boost investments research has shown. This is not about inspiring confidance. It is about boosting investments. Even the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) wants the company tax rate cut to 20%.

Businesses by nature would prefer to investment in countries where they keep a larger share of profits. The former central European have used low company taxes to lure in massive amounts of Foreign Direct Investment.

Search Google: "Does low corporate taxes boost economic growth and provide examples."

franchasng:
Media propaganda economic recovery only felt by the ruling class and their criminal political appointees

demstone:
U OBVIOUSLY NOT ONE OF DOZ WHO WATCHED DERE STATES CRUMBLE ND STAY BANKRUPT FROM 2014 TO 2023..
WEN CRUDE FELL ND STAYED BELLOW $70/BARREL BTW 2014 & 2026

U NOT ONE OF DOZ WHO LITERARILY BECAME REFUGEES IN PORTHARCOURT, LAGOS ETC JUST COS OF POVERTY IN DERE STATES

Fujiyama:
^^^
Your writing style makes your piece confusing and hard to read.

You take out the letter 'a' from the word 'and' - to save time I guess? But you then add a completely unnecessary, extra 'l' to the word 'below' - which leads to a word that shouldn't be in your writeup.

Lets not even go into the other stuff like 'doz', 'dere', 'wen' etc.

Make it easier for readers to understand.

Freetech:
Nigeria poverty is a combination of many factors including religious culture and lack of sense of patriotism

The major problem is high population increase fueled by both culture and religion. A country where population doubles every 20years will surely amaze poverty.

Secondly government social support is imported from the west where things were different.

Nigeria multi culture, tribe and language make this conditional transfer of money a waste and ample opportunity for corruption.

Government should understand that such interventions will only work where citizenship rights is upheld,
Social cohesion creating social capital exists, and
Citizens believe in the government and her policy.

Instead of transfer of money to people account, let NGOS handle social interventions.
Instead of direct cash transfer, provide the poor with food card/stamp.
Provide agricultural input to farmers
Let federal government make it a policy of 3 tractors (1from FG, 1 from State govt and 1 from the LG) per Lg per year for the next 5 years
Lastly let's benchmark India, by ensuring 10-20% of capital budget contracts is reserved for Nigerian youths to execute.

There are more that can done on youth, food security and transport

The youths of Nigeria are smart ready to work, so create opportunities for them and see wonders