₦airaland Forum

You can use NIN to estimate population using one state as reference


There has not been a census in Nigeria for years but there are enough digital data with which to compare the population of states and if the population of a particular state is known then the population of the entire country can be estimated and it would be accurate enough.

For example if we all agree Lagos has 21 million people as the UN agrees the metro area contains 17 million people and we know the NIN registration is 12:million then we can say Osun state with NIN registration of 2 3 million is around one fifth of the population of Lagos state all other variables being static. This means the population of Osun state is around 4.5 million.

If we assume Lagos population to be 23 million as some people think then the figure for Osun state will be higher.

You can perform the operation for each and every state and then get the estimate population of the country.

After using NIN data, you can also use other available digital data like voters registration, internet subscribers and etc and you are going to get much the same results.


https://nimc.gov.ng/nin/enrolment-report/october-2025

https://www.nairaland.com/8376120/list-igerias-nin-enrollment-ac

Makes sense but the pattern doesnt guarantee uniformity. Lagosians might be averaging more Adults per 1000 human population compared to Jigawa, and we know adults are more in NIN compliance. Overall a good idea. Instead of using trillions to count ojoro.

CodeTemplar:
Makes sense but the pattern doesnt guarantee uniformity. Lagosians might be averaging more Adults per 1000 human population compared to Jigawa, and we know adults are more in NIN compliance. Overall a good idea. Instead of using trillions to count ojoro.

I want to believe the disparity is not significant. Farming is a major occupation in Nigeria and the majority of Lagosians are not farmers. Lagos does not really have much more than ten percent of the job opportunities in the country. We are six children in my family and only one person is in Lagos

lawani:
You can use NIN to estimate population using one state as reference


There has not been a census in Nigeria for years but there are enough digital data with which to compare the population of states and if the population of a particular state is known then the population of the entire country can be estimated and it would be accurate enough.

For example if we all agree Lagos has 21 million people as the UN agrees the metro area contains 17 million people and we know the NIN registration is 12:million then we can say Osun state with NIN registration of 2 3 million is around one fifth of the population of Lagos state all other variables being static. This means the population of Osun state is around 4.5 million.

If we assume Lagos population to be 23 million as some people think then the figure for Osun state will be higher.

You can perform the operation for each and every state and then get the estimate population of the country.

After using NIN data, you can also use other available digital data like voters registration, internet subscribers and etc and you are going to get much the same results.


https://www.nairaland.com/8376120/list-igerias-nin-enrollment-across

Less than 130 million Nigerians have NIN.

lawani:
I want to believe the disparity is not significant. Farming is a major occupation in Nigeria and the majority of Lagosians are not farmers. Lagos does not really have much more than ten percent of the job opportunities in the country. We are six children in my family and only one person is in Lagos

The sort of parents likely to settle in Lagos dont want more than average of 2-3 children per wife(if many wives). Northerners can have much more per wife. How do you account for such disparity?
Also there are many adults in Lagos unmarried compared to Jigawa and Zamfara. How so you account for those?

Parachoko:
Less than 130 million Nigerians have NIN.

It does not remove anything from the validity of my position or how does it?

CodeTemplar:
The sort of parents likely to settle in Lagos dont want more than average of 2-3 children per wife(if many wives). Northerners can have much more per wife. How do you account for such disparity?
Also there are many adults in Lagos unmarried compared to Jigawa and Zamfara. How so you account for those?

Having more than three kids is now rare. How many people do you actually know that have more than three kids anywhere in the country whether North or south?. I am not saying my method is perfect but it is near perfect. Lagos will not attract on the overall much more than it's fair share of workers or adults. Many industries don't even exist at all in Lagos and adults work in those industries. So everything evens out

This claim might not be totally true.
I have my NIN registered when I was in Lagos back in 2011, I have had course to update some data from my new state many years later, what I find out is that the old addresses on the NIN is not editable.
In my mind, even within a state, tenant can relocate, so why was that field unchangeable.

So, I believed if going by that claimed of yours, the data will be flaw.

PS: the same can be say of other state, where people have their NIN registered, but now reside in another state permanently.

Naijaepic:
This claim might not be totally true.
I have my NIN registered when I was in Lagos back in 2011, I have had course to update some data from my new state many years later, what I find out is that the old addresses on the NIN is not editable.
In my mind, even within a state, tenant can relocate, so why was that field unchangeable.

So, I believed if going by that claimed of yours, the data will be flaw

That applies to all states and not only Lagos

So, you agree that your initial assessment is flaw?

PS: Key criteria for accuracy of NIN as a population yardstick for a state is residency not citizenship. At the national level, residency is irrelevant.

lawani:
That applies to all states and not only Lagos

Naijaepic:
So, you agree that your initial assessment is flaw?

PS: Key criteria for accuracy of NIN as a population yardstick for a state is residency not citizenship. At the national level, residency is irrelevant.

If you moved from Lagos to another state. Others too moved to Lagos from another state. It cancels out. That is my position. All such movements are not significant enough to affect the data and conclusions gotten from the analysis of the data

lawani:
It does not remove anything from the validity of my position or how does it?

NIN can't be used

Parachoko:
NIN can't be used

In short, what you are saying is that a state with a high NIN registration figure can have a lower population than another with a lower NIN registration figure? Alright

lawani:
You can use NIN to estimate population using one state as reference

https://www.nairaland.com/8376120/list-igerias-nin-enrollment-across

This is the update as at October 2025.

https://nimc.gov.ng/nin/enrolment-report/october-2025

How do you track dead persons?

How many Nigerians have NIN because me i don't have yet

The NIN is the factual data that can form factual baseline for estimating population in Nigeria alongside BVN, phone lines, drivers, voters cards and international passports.

If you base your computation on this and not rely on disputed and faulty estimates, Nigeria population may just be over 200m and not up to 230m as being touted. Each of these means of identification has their faults but they c an provide us with reasonable values.

The core argument that many young people don't have the NIN for instance is a common denominator within +-10% . The core north historically do have more people mobilized for government issues especially with certain rewards such as resource allocations etc. the Fulani population was used in the post 1963 census to shore up the NW population.

Factually speaking, the difference between the Hausa and the Yoruba are two largest groups with +-5m difference between them. I believe the population of the NW is grossly exaggerated. Although the NW has better rural dwellers, am still yet to see where their estimated population live. Believe you me, its possible Kano may have enrolled more than 90% of its people into NIN including the almajiri who some may have sometimes been provided with voters card during elections. So instead of assuming that the North is under registered, it may be the north that is better registered than others. Kano state for instance cannot probably exceed 14m and still far behind Lagos state

The NIN is the factual data that can form factual baseline for estimating population in Nigeria alongside BVN, phone lines, drivers, voters cards and international passports.

If you base your computation on this and not rely on disputed and faulty estimates, Nigeria population may just be over 200m and not up to 230m as being touted. Each of these means of identification has their faults but they c an provide us with reasonable values.

The core argument that many young people don't have the NIN for instance is a common denominator within +-10% . The core north historically do have more people mobilized for government issues especially with certain rewards such as resource allocations etc. the Fulani population was used in the post 1963 census to shore up the NW population.

Factually speaking, the difference between the Hausa and the Yoruba are two largest groups with +-5m difference between them. I believe the population of the NW is grossly exaggerated. Although the NW has better rural dwellers, am still yet to see where their estimated population live. Believe you me, its possible Kano may have enrolled more than 90% of its people into NIN including the almajiri who some may have sometimes been provided with voters card during elections. So instead of assuming that the North is under registered, it may be the north that is better registered than others. Kano state for instance cannot probably exceed 14m and still far behind Lagos state

aieromon:
This is the update as at October 2025.

https://nimc.gov.ng/nin/enrolment-report/october-2025

How do you track dead persons?

It can be required for everybody to update once every three years for the NIN to remain valid.

mandarin:
The NIN is the factual data that can form factual baseline for estimating population in Nigeria alongside BVN, phone lines, drivers, voters cards and international passports.

If you base your computation on this and not rely on disputed and faulty estimates, Nigeria population may just be over 200m and not up to 230m as being touted. Each of these means of identification has their faults but they c an provide us with reasonable values.

The core argument that many young people don't have the NIN for instance is a common denominator within +-10% . The core north historically do have more people mobilized for government issues especially with certain rewards such as resource allocations etc. the Fulani population was used in the post 1963 census to shore up the NW population.

Factually speaking, the difference between the Hausa and the Yoruba are two largest groups with +-5m difference between them. I believe the population of the NW is grossly exaggerated. Although the NW has better rural dwellers, am still yet to see where their estimated population live. Believe you me, its possible Kano may have enrolled more than 90% of its people into NIN including the almajiri who some may have sometimes been provided with voters card during elections. So instead of assuming that the North is under registered, it may be the north that is better registered than others. Kano state for instance cannot probably exceed 14m and still far behind Lagos state

I don't understand Kano. I saw one stat years ago that shows Kaduna students that registered for NECO to be almost double Kano students but the recent records say Kano is around the same number of students as Lagos. Kano also have more internet subscribers than Oyo but much lower than Lagos. Kaduna is also said to be producing more maize than Kano which is a wonder. Then Kano has only one major city which is around 5 million in population which means up to fifteen million people live in rural or semi urban areas in Kano. Kano has around half the number of hotels in Osun or Anambra and less than one third of what Oyo has. The indications that Kano is more populated than Kaduna are things like number of internet subscribers and now this NIN registration but my mind has never left that NECO stats of many years ago showing Kaduna to be double Kano

lawani:
It can be required for everybody to update once every three years for the NIN to remain valid.

What happens to the persons who refuse to provide an update? Who will provide the funding for the database update?

The NIMC cannot supersede the role of the NPC.

The National Population Commission (NPC) in Nigeria determines population growth rates by analyzing data on three key components: birth rates, death rates, and net migration. These metrics are derived from census figures, surveys (such as the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey), and vital registration systems to track population change.

aieromon:
What happens to the persons who refuse to provide an update? Who will provide the funding for the database update?

The NIMC cannot supersede the role of the NPC.

NIN registration is ongoing at numerous centers all over the country. If you don't update, then they freeze your bank account if it is still working and then mark the id as dead after a length of time

lawani:
NIN registration is ongoing at numerous centers all over the country. If you don't update, then they freeze your bank account if it is still working and then mark the id as dead after a length of time

Wishful thinking

aieromon:


Wishful thinking

It is infact a potential revenue source for government