₦airaland Forum

This is the best analysis on Nairaland since the inception of the forum!

Short and highly detailed!

I must commend the Op for a job well done. I am not a believer of novels and always love it short and brief like you did.

You over nailed it!

You just didn’t add the “the powers that make be” behind His Excellency, President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (GCFR)

The only way Tinubu can win is for Tinubu to use every juju available to him to scatter Atiku/Obi/Kwankwaso/El-Rufai/Tambuwal/Amaechi coalition.




But if he fails to do so and Atiku/Obi runs or Obi/Kwankwaso runs, Tinubu will definitely lose because he won't get up to 15% in the North.


Opposition will win Southeast landslide, win SouthSouth comfortably and win or get draw in Middlebelt.



You guys will witness a northern electoral revolution that will remain in the hearts of Nigerians for decades.


Tinubu betrayed Northern Nigeria and it's paining them so much and they are waiting for 2027 to revenge on Tinubu.



Tinubu's defeat will start from Northwest and Northeast and concluded in Southeast and parts of North Central.


Tinubu's handlers didn't try for him by allowing him divide Nigeria so much and turn Nigeria to a Yoruba-first agenda nation, a multiethnic nation like Nigeria? Buhari started it yes, but even Buhari's nepotism wasn't as bad and daring as Tinubu's own.


And why must Tinubu even follow the unscrupulous footsteps of Buhari when it comes to nepotism, divisive policies and being unforgiven? Must you follow the bad ways? Can't you make a difference and be remembered for good?


Tinubu governed Nigeria as if Yorubas finally conquered Nigeria in a war, it was really that bad and it's sad Tinubu followed such dishonorable pathway after being declared winner in an election he was so unpopular!

Rigging, that's the only way that thing (tulumbu) can win. All these are just long story, everything points to rigging and using of state machinery.

2027 will be a long ride between Tinubu/APC and Nigerian

By the way, nice writte up op

An INEC chairman denied owning an X account linking him to his support for Tinubu.

For an INEC chairman to lie about this means Tinubu recruited him to rig elections.

SeverusSnape:
Rigging, that's the only way that thing (tulumbu) can win. All these are just long story, everything points to rigging and using of state machinery.

Bro, Tinubu cannot win even with rigging unless Atiku/Obi or Obi/Kwankwaso ticket didn't fly under the coalition of opposition.



Tinubu dared Northern Nigerians that installed him as President. You don't challenge your "chi" in Igbo tradition because Northerners were the "chi" that made Tinubu President.


He will learn a bitter lesson.


You rig where you have the chance to do so and Northern politicians know when their people are angry with someone and will never dare make attempt to help Tinubu rig election in the North when they know their commoners are angry with Tinubu


As for Southeast, it's rig and die unless Peter Obi is completely out of the equation, yes!


SouthSouth, I can't say much about that region in 2027, we shall see as it goes

Odewaleadesoye:
[font=Georgia]...at the end of the day, power belongs to the people.

Campaign for Tinubu with your full chest and nobody will kpai you.
All these childish permutations you are painting in green are merely a reflection of your limitations and brain capacity.

Odewaleadesoye:
[font=Georgia]...at the end of the day, power belongs to the people.

You didn't mention hi-neck chairman that is tinibu's puppet

Many people will not vote for Tinubu.
Most people will vote for Tinubu.

Their only hope to win a reelection is through rigging in collaboration with INEC.


The opposition must have this at the front and back of their minds as they go into the polls. They must be fully prepared to unleash mayhem on election riggers including INEC!


2027 election, people's votes must count by fire by force or risk national revolution.



Just allow people's votes to count. You misruled Nigeria. Your wicked leadership caused a lot of deaths of Nigerians and inflicted pains, sufferings and hunger on millions of Nigerians and instead of you to be apologizing you are preparing to rig yourself into office for a second time to do what? To finish the destruction of Nigeria you started?


To implement a people-killing and business-killing-tax to raise more money you and your political cronies will loot through white elephant projects like the coastal highway to perdition?


God will not allow such evil plan to work in 2027!

franchasng:
The only way Tinubu can win is for Tinubu to use every juju available to him to scatter Atiku/Obi/Kwankwaso/El-Rufai/Tambuwal/Amaechi coalition.




But if he fails to do so and Atiku/Obi runs or Obi/Kwankwaso runs, Tinubu will definitely lose because he won't get up to 15% in the North.


Opposition will win Southeast landslide, win SouthSouth comfortably and win or get draw in Middlebelt.



You guys will witness a northern electoral revolution that will remain in the hearts of Nigerians for decades.


Tinubu betrayed Northern Nigeria and it's paining them so much and they are waiting for 2027 to revenge on Tinubu.



Tinubu's defeat will start from Northwest and Northeast and concluded in Southeast and parts of North Central.


Tinubu's handlers didn't try for him by allowing him divide Nigeria so much and turn Nigeria to a Yoruba-first agenda nation, a multiethnic nation like Nigeria? Buhari started it yes, but even Buhari's nepotism wasn't as bad and daring as Tinubu's own.


And why must Tinubu even follow the unscrupulous footsteps of Buhari when it comes to nepotism, divisive policies and being unforgiven? Must you follow the bad ways? Can't you make a difference and be remembered for good?


Tinubu governed Nigeria as if Yorubas finally conquered Nigeria in a war, it was really that bad and it's sad Tinubu followed such dishonorable pathway after being declared winner in an election he was so unpopular!

Can El-Rufai deliver his LGA in kaduna

Can Kwakwanso deliver kano 100%

Can Amaechi deliver his ward

Can Tambuwal deliver his LGA

Obi Can never win in SE the way he did in 2023.

APC have strong politicians in all the states to rival all the people you mentioned.

Defeating Tinubu come 2027 is a difficult task.

2027 is a done deal for Tinubu, so you better forget about it

Cherrybae:
Can El-Rufai deliver his LGA in kaduna

Can Kwakwanso deliver kano 100%

Can Amaechi deliver his ward

Can Tambuwal deliver his LGA

Obi Can never win in SE the way he did in 2023.

APC have strong politicians in all the states to rival all the people you mentioned.

Defeating Tinubu come 2027 is a difficult task.

2027 is a done deal for Tinubu, so you better forget about it

No wahala then.


In 2027, you will realize that politicians only influence election they have a chance to do so.


That rigging Tinubu and you his supporters are hoping on by always mentioning he has Governors and politicians in all states to deliver their state via rigging will fail!



Instead of you guys to tell Nigerians what Tinubu did amazingly as a President for the past 3 years to makes him merit reelection, you guys are always busy threatening Nigerians with election rigging using political figures who una believe would deliver (rig for Tinubu) in their respective states, no wahala

I'm anti Tinubu but the opposition arising matters in that coalition is making me lose hope

He has got no opposition ... Everyone forming opposition will do worst when given the opportunity. It's obvious with the way they are disorganized currently... they just want power,they don't have plans on how to save the country from sinking..

Take a look at Atiku.. Take a look at Obi .. Two unserious elements.. Kwankwanso just joined them to be fooling around.


I don't see any candidate yet who can unseat Tinubu as it stands now... He has got the inec,the courts,the security outfits,the money,even the governors. What else does he need?

5k will settle citizens on election day,cux those ones will prefer to collect 5k now and suffer for four years. Citizens own no dey hard.

aydought:
Time for Atiku to shift, enough is enough.
If he’s desperately interested in power and love Nigeria so much to die for her as a President, he should wait for the pendulum to swing to Northern Nigeria in 2031, then he’ll be massively voted into power.
For now, the focus is on the key players from Southern Nigeria in all the existing parties. This I have seen!

.. They are not reading the room. It's the old guard that are still whining him but he doesn't recognize how time flies. Now that Buhari is dead, he thinks the North will vote for him and all he needs is someone who will help him get Southern votes.

In the three times he appeared on the general ballot for the presidency, Atiku Abubakar received

- 2,637,848 votes (7.47%) in 2007 to finish third,

- 11,262,978 votes (41.22%) in 2019 to finish second, and

- 6,984,520 votes (29.07%) in 2023 to finish second once again.

In the first time the candidate he contested with in 2019 (that gave Atiku his highest vote ever) went to test his popularity in 2023, tell me what was the numbers that candidate got.

SixSeven:
Aside Obi and Kwankwanso, no other politician has been able to prove themselves ALONE outside the establishment.

Repost👇

Obi has the brightest chance going by the last election result followed by Kwankwanso. I choose these two because they left PDP and did not have the structure of the regular party, which Atiku benefitted from using the PDP platform. You also have to look at the time they had to test themselves between the election primaries and election.

If you want to know what that means, Ribadu ran the Presidential election in 2011 under AC and failed with that party structure. Obi and Kwankwanso have been able to test their popularity as candidates outside the regular establishments and done well. Both had no Governors in their party before contesting and pulled a good number in the last election. Buhari used his CPC to bargain with AC to get the Presidential slot in APC. Buhari could say whether he used ANPP or CPC, he could gather votes. I'm not so sure Atiku can do that. He was a presidential candidate of the Action Congress in the 2007 presidential election coming in third to Umaru Yar'Adua of the PDP and Muhammadu Buhari of the ANPP. Atiku came a distant third in that election with less than 10% of the votes.


Obi and Saraki/Kwankwanso

A Saraki will be a difficult campaign for APC that has defaulted to using tribes against themselves. Saraki ticks two boxes of Yoruba/North Central who have been looking for relevance since Gowon.

Here is the stats of the declared winners since 1999. Mr Bola Ahmed tinubu was not a popular president elect

Here is the brief, factual list of Nigeria’s presidential election winners since 1999, including each winner’s name and the percentage of valid votes they received.

1999 – Olusegun Obasanjo: about 62.78% of valid votes.

2003 – Olusegun Obasanjo: about 61.94% of valid votes.

2007 – Umaru Musa Yar’Adua: about 69.60% of valid votes.

2011 – Goodluck Jonathan: about 58.87% of valid votes.

2015 – Muhammadu Buhari: about 53.96% of valid votes.

2019 – Muhammadu Buhari: about 55.60% of valid votes.

2023 – Bola Ahmed tinubu: about 36.6–37% of valid votes.


A United opposition will defeat tinubu before the election begins. With a wiiiiiiiiiiiiiide margin. There is no need to argue about that.

Fact: Tinubu remains the most unpopular president to have won the Presidential elections. He is the easiest to kick out. Back then, PDP told AC, CPC and opposition parties when they were reigning that to kick us out, you need to unite as opposition. That's what they learned in 2015.

Atiku does not appeal to the youth and going by stats, they are the major voting bloc and will be the only ones to want to come out because whether you like it or not, Tinubu is planning on swimming through voter apathy in 2027. Many of these candidates need to retire, including Obi himself. A child born in 1999 is now 27 and would have gone through his adult life hearing about Tinubu and Atiku. A child born in 1993 when Atiku first contested is now telling his own child that Atiku is the future. How? Let me remind you again

In the lead-up to the 2023 elections, approximately 39.65% (roughly 37 million) of registered voters were between the ages of 18 and 34. 84% of the 10 million newly registered voters fell into this age category. Put an Atiku on the ballot and these guys will go watch Big Brother Iran. Before the 2023 elections, they were abused that politics is not online but they proved their point on election day. Except for patronage and access, you won't see youth doing city boy or Jagaban army for Tinubu when they can see how his son who is their age is treated

WATCH: APC Youths Assure Tinubu Of Over 20 Million Votes In 2023 Poll

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SM6oXspI9w8

The old guard, both Atiku and Tinubu recruit young people. For Obi, they don't need recruitment or handout, they are the type that will come out to defend their votes.

Obi is lucky to have such loyalty that cuts across the country. It's not like he is not part of the same the same but he understood them and answered them. These young people feel he is their own, not hand me down. Since when have they been saying the youth will take over. These ones are smart, they know you people are lying and they feel the older ones caused where we are today. I told people after that Endsars that you just saw part 1 of these ones. Buhari has been a bad boy? You think they don't know what's up? There is no vision men in their 70s want to build for them. For Obi, one thing they see about him is that he has character, or at least, says the right things they want to hear and see in their country, not this same old politics of do or die, grab it and snatch it or moneybags, why you think say dem no de give shishi
The Obidient Movement Is Organic, Peter Obi Didn’t Pay for It - Justin Ijeh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-qgUo2mwaw

franchasng:
No wahala then.


In 2027, you will realize that politicians only influence election they have a chance to do so.


That rigging Tinubu and you his supporters are hoping on by always mentioning he has Governors and politicians in all states to deliver their state via rigging will fail!



Instead of you guys to tell Nigerians what Tinubu did amazingly as a President for the past 3 years to makes him merit reelection, you guys are always busy threatening Nigerians with election rigging using political figures who una believe would deliver (rig for Tinubu) in their respective states, no wahala

So many bye elections have been held under Tinubu, his party kept winning.

I won't vote for Tinubu but his chances of winning are higher than those who will contest against him.

Cherrybae:
So many bye elections have been held under Tinubu, his party kept winning.

I won't vote for Tinubu but his chances of winning are higher than those who will contest against him.

. Bye elections are not always a good indication of how the election will be. When it is general elections, it is what is on everyone's mind. INEC conducted good bye elections in 2022 and fumbled in 2023.

franchasng:
The only way Tinubu can win is for Tinubu to use every juju available to him to scatter Atiku/Obi/Kwankwaso/El-Rufai/Tambuwal/Amaechi coalition.




But if he fails to do so and Atiku/Obi runs or Obi/Kwankwaso runs, Tinubu will definitely lose because he won't get up to 15% in the North.


Opposition will win Southeast landslide, win SouthSouth comfortably and win or get draw in Middlebelt.



You guys will witness a northern electoral revolution that will remain in the hearts of Nigerians for decades.


Tinubu betrayed Northern Nigeria and it's paining them so much and they are waiting for 2027 to revenge on Tinubu.



Tinubu's defeat will start from Northwest and Northeast and concluded in Southeast and parts of North Central.


Tinubu's handlers didn't try for him by allowing him divide Nigeria so much and turn Nigeria to a Yoruba-first agenda nation, a multiethnic nation like Nigeria? Buhari started it yes, but even Buhari's nepotism wasn't as bad and daring as Tinubu's own.


And why must Tinubu even follow the unscrupulous footsteps of Buhari when it comes to nepotism, divisive policies and being unforgiven? Must you follow the bad ways? Can't you make a difference and be remembered for good?


Tinubu governed Nigeria as if Yorubas finally conquered Nigeria in a war, it was really that bad and it's sad Tinubu followed such dishonorable pathway after being declared winner in an election he was so unpopular!

You watch too much American movies!

Desist from it as it is already affecting your arithmetic’s

All indices are pointing to the fact that Tinubu will win. I am not wasting my time making noise

CharlotteFlair:
Campaign for Tinubu with your full chest and nobody will kpai you.
All these childish permutations you are painting in green are merely a reflection of your limitations and brain capacity.

He has got no ballz to do that, that OP doesn't strike like a man to me.

APC and Tinubu is lossing woefully come 2027

HacheNoire:
This is the best analysis on Nairaland since the inception of the forum!

Short and highly detailed!

I must commend the Op for a job well done. I am not a believer of novels and always love it short and brief like you did.

You over nailed it!

You just didn’t add the “the powers that make be” behind His Excellency, President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (GCFR)

The analysis is good and realistic. It's the sad truth. But ya oga Tulumbu no do well oh.
He had a great chance of erasing bad memories of Goodlack & Bubu but he sef follow their part as heartbreakers for a girl dying for true love.
Nigeria is on thin grasp for breathe. I pity the poor more.

Odewaleadesoye:
[font=Georgia]...at the end of the day, power belongs to the people.

That ur No1. Say it all that Agbado is the president and will use his power to do OJORO BY ALL MEANS, the rest of your story is being condemned by that No1. Is this a democracy or military in disguise? But God knows how to handle people like that sha.

Odewaleadesoye:
[font=Georgia]...at the end of the day, power belongs to the people.

Also include; The lackadaisical attitude of the citizens.

Another wasted time. Useless post.

Green man abi pink man?

Only number of votes should decide who becomes the next president not this permutations and combinations.

I get this but What you should write about using your AI is how free and fair elections can take affect in Nigeria.

APC agents everywhere.

franchasng:
The only way Tinubu can win is for Tinubu to use every juju available to him to scatter Atiku/Obi/Kwankwaso/El-Rufai/Tambuwal/Amaechi coalition.




But if he fails to do so and Atiku/Obi runs or Obi/Kwankwaso runs, Tinubu will definitely lose because he won't get up to 15% in the North.


Opposition will win Southeast landslide, win SouthSouth comfortably and win or get draw in Middlebelt.



You guys will witness a northern electoral revolution that will remain in the hearts of Nigerians for decades.


Tinubu betrayed Northern Nigeria and it's paining them so much and they are waiting for 2027 to revenge on Tinubu.



Tinubu's defeat will start from Northwest and Northeast and concluded in Southeast and parts of North Central.


Tinubu's handlers didn't try for him by allowing him divide Nigeria so much and turn Nigeria to a Yoruba-first agenda nation, a multiethnic nation like Nigeria? Buhari started it yes, but even Buhari's nepotism wasn't as bad and daring as Tinubu's own.


And why must Tinubu even follow the unscrupulous footsteps of Buhari when it comes to nepotism, divisive policies and being unforgiven? Must you follow the bad ways? Can't you make a difference and be remembered for good?


Tinubu governed Nigeria as if Yorubas finally conquered Nigeria in a war, it was really that bad and it's sad Tinubu followed such dishonorable pathway after being declared winner in an election he was so unpopular!

That's the problem right there.

Tinubu doesn't need to scatter this coalition of 6 heavyweights.

They will scatter themselves..

They all want to be on the ticket.

Amaechi and Atiku have already started nagging..

I doubt very much that two or three of them wouldn't break away after the primaries.



Obi/Kwonkwoso
Atiku/Obi

With any of these two pairings, only rigging can save Tinubu from defeat.

Las las , power belong to the people. All these permutations won't matter if we all unite and refuse to vote APC .

But wait oh , who among the opposition candidates can be able to improve the economy and turn things around for good?

As in who?

Definitely not obi, kwakwanso, Atiku, amaechi or el rufai.
These guys are idiots and greedy clueless criminals just like the balablu in power. They have nothing to offer, they just want to be in power.

Ask them their manifestos and they will stammering .
Buch of thieves.

The army and the police are the major problems of that country Nigeria
Na Dem be the hacking tools

The masses are to be blamed for collecting bribe on election day
Na the same Masses self dey fear death to protest

Then hunger will continue the slow painful death na

The solution is revolution or civil war for disintegration to better reformations

Godfullsam:
Las las , power belong to the people. All these permutations won't matter if we all unite and refuse to vote APC .

But wait oh , who among the opposition candidates can be able to improve the economy and turn things around for good?

As in who?

Definitely not obi, kwakwanso, Atiku, amaechi or el rufai.
These guys are idiots and greedy clueless criminals just like the balablu in power. They have nothing to offer, they just want to be in power.

Ask them their manifestos and they will stammering .
Buch of thieves.

This is the kind of comment people make when they want to support Tinubu indirectly,

Yes they are failures but let us try other failures.

Tinubu has proven to be the worst president in our history..

Atiku and Obi are failures I agree, but let us try them.

It is better to try a failure who hasn't had an opportunity to be president yet than to continue with a failure who is a confirmed failure.

All these points raised leads to one thing, Rigging . Remember APC has least 20 states in 2023 and yet won only 11 , I am pretty sure the SS, se, even some parts of NC will not vote for Tinubu, he may have some significant votes from these parts but he will not win. What achievements is he going to campaign with? He failed woefully. APC brought hunger and insecurity to Land.