₦airaland Forum

Let me first begin by stating that I maintain a non-partisan stance because I (like many others) believe that systemic challenges in the country are deeply rooted in every sector, enough that any president (no matter how good his intentions are) can only do so much.
Also, I'm mostly basing this analysis on the last election's official results. While some may debate the integrity of the previous results, for the sake of this analysis, we must use the official data as a baseline. If one assumes the previous process was flawed, one must also consider that such factors could persist, making it even more necessary to work with the available data.
Lastly, feel free to correct me if I overlook any factor.

First, the official 2023 election results:
APC (Tinubu): ~8.8 million votes
PDP (Atiku): ~7 million votes
LP (Obi): ~6.1 million votes
NNPP (Kwankwaso): ~1.5 million votes
Others

Let's begin with Atiku. I don't see any immediate reason why his support base should significantly increase or decrease (though there is a variable regarding politicians in the new alliance who could potentially work to increase the votes). But using the same baseline, Atiku maintains 7 million votes.

For Obi, similarly, I don’t see a clear reason for a major shift in his baseline of 6.1 million votes.

For Kwankwaso, the situation is more complex. It is unclear if his supporters would remain as committed if he were to run in a secondary role (such as Vice President) rather than for the Presidency. On the other hand, while he was not as prominent nationally in the last cycle, a formal alliance with Obi could expand his influence in the North. For this analysis, let’s assume these factors offset each other, leaving him with a 1.5 million vote pull.
Combining Obi and Kwankwaso, a potential coalition brings a total of roughly 7.6 million votes.

As for the APC, this is the most interesting variable. While the party secured nearly 8.8 million votes last time, repeating that may be difficult due to the socio-economic impact of the subsidy removal and the floating of the Naira. While these may not necessarily be bad policy decisions, we cannot overlook their effect on the daily life of Nigerians. If we estimate that 50% of those who voted for Tinubu are staunch party loyalists (a generous higher end estimate as the core base may be debatable) that accounts for 4.4 million votes. The remaining 4.4 million came from the South (mostly west) and parts of the North. Informal observations of current public sentiment suggest a shift; even in traditionally strong areas, a random sampling might yield mixed (if not visibly critical) reactions regarding re-election. Based on these trends, it is possible the APC might struggle to retain its previous margins and might only retain an additional 2 to 3 million votes at best (another generous estimate) from previous supporters, bringing their projected total to roughly 6.4 or 7.4 million.
This leaves us with three blocks of roughly 7 million to 7.6 million votes each. As for who would ultimately win, I'll leave that to God. However, as the title suggests, even with a divided opposition, victory remains uncertain for the APC due to the evolving socio-economic climate.

For the APC, there remain two unknown variables that could alter these projections. First, if the administration manages to significantly appease the public before the next election (though I'm not sure how because reinstating the subsidy would be economically unsustainable). Second, any unforeseen electoral variables or external factors could render this statistical analysis obsolete.

Summary/Key Takeaway:
From evidence and observations, APC's votes would likely decrease (due to the economic impact of the subsidy removal and floating of Naira) while Obi and Kwankwaso's votes will most likely be combined, which will probably put their numbers close to each other even with a divided opposition. As for the final winner, God decides.

Please feel free to correct me if I have overlooked any factor. I would appreciate input that is based on empirical analysis and logical thinking rather than personal preference.

2027 election will be quite interesting especially for us fence sitters.

I'm not a tinubu fan but let me tell you this only death can stop him from winning next year.

The average Nigerian does not vote base on performance,they vote base on sentiments,tribe and religion.

He has control over the INEC, security agencies,huge war chest and federal power.

You also have another formidable political tactician on his side the ever wicked Nyesom wike.

LordBiden:
I'm not a tinubu fan but let me tell you this only death can stop him from winning next year.

The average Nigerian does not vote base on performance,they vote base on sentiments,tribe and religion.

He has control over the INEC, security agencies,huge war chest and federal power.

You also have another formidable political tactician on his side the ever wicked Nyesom wike.

I understand that people vote based on sentiments (tribe and religion) but you cannot deny the fact that the subsidy removal and floating of naira doesn't have any impact on people, I for one know many people that was behind PBAT in 2023 and are totally against him now due to economic issues obviously (not just a few people but many).

Yeah, the adminstration has control over INEC, security and others (which I accounted for) but it's not an absolute control, because if that was the case, then power won't ever change from any ruling party ever.

That is why it would be difficult to get as much as he did previously (though not impossible)

LordBiden:
I'm not a tinubu fan but let me tell you this only death can stop him from winning next year.

The average Nigerian does not vote base on performance,they vote base on sentiments,tribe and religion.

He has control over the INEC, security agencies,huge war chest and federal power.

You also have another formidable political tactician on his side the ever wicked Nyesom wike.

Baba if he has all the control he won't be using INEC, Judiciary and whatever. He will just wouldn't worry himself, he will just sit down and write the result himself. Something is unfolding underneath and you people don't know about, that's why they are doing everything to stop the opposition.

LordBiden:
I'm not a tinubu fan but let me tell you this only death can stop him from winning next year.

The average Nigerian does not vote base on performance,they vote base on sentiments,tribe and religion.

He has control over the INEC, security agencies,huge war chest and federal power.

You also have another formidable political tactician on his side the ever wicked Nyesom wike.

This my bro is funny. In the SW for example,if elections were held today, Tinubu will struggle to win. There will be a huge voter aparthy from a Man who has made his people poorer. No be say them say,I live here and a full blooded yoruba Man and I know lots of his supporters are dissapointed and most of them are even denying ever supporting him. It is what it is.

He will have more votes from the political class,but how.many are they? It is the people that vote and if things continue this way,the oppostion will just keep on being hrotter than before.

Infact his loss in the SW will be more than 2023. Because for sure he wont win Oyo. As Seyi might be on the ballot as VP candidate. Likewise Osun. Those ones dont even want to see or hear anything APC, and likewise Lagos if Obi and Kwanwanso will run a joint ticket

Oya tell me,if he cant win his region hands down, tell me where he will win?

Heeen?

happney65:
This my bro is funny. In the SW for example,if elections were held today, Tinubu will struggle to win. There will be a huge voter aparthy from a Man who has made his people poorer. No be say them say,I live here and a full blooded yoruba Man and I know lots of his supporters are dissapointed and most of them are even denying ever supporting him. It is what it is.

He will have more votes from the political class,but how.many are they? It is the people that vote and if things continue this way,the oppostion will just keep on being hrotter than before.

Infact his loss in the SW will be more than 2023. Because for sure he wont win Oyo. As Seyi might be on the ballot as VP candidate. Likewise Osun. Those ones dont even want to see or hear anything APC, and likewise Lagos if Obi and Kwanwanso will run a joint ticket

Oya tell me,if he cant win his region hands down, tell me where he will win?

Heeen?

Tinubu will sweep the entire SW. If Makinde gets a VP position his new party will even lose and might even affect his Governorship candidate in Oyo

Adeleke in Osun has openly said he supports Tinubu which is why he refused to join ADC and separated from PDP

Tinubu is winning Lagos going forward. Many of those Anti Tinubu Yorubas have seen what the Obidient is in the past 4yrs. Many of them will vote Tinubu or stay at home

Tinubu will win more votes from the South than he did in 2023

You’re just making noise. No sane human being in the entire SW will vote for Tinubu. The only people voting for him are the agberos and touts he has raised over the years.

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will sweep the entire SW. If Makinde gets a VP position his new party will even lose and might even affect his Governorship candidate in Oyo

Adeleke in Osun has openly said he supports Tinubu which is why he refused to join ADC and separated from PDP

Tinubu is winning Lagos going forward. Many of those Anti Tinubu Yorubas have seen what the Obidient is in the past 4yrs. Many of them will vote Tinubu or stay at home

Tinubu will win more votes from the South than he did in 2023

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will sweep the entire SW. If Makinde gets a VP position his new party will even lose and might even affect his Governorship candidate in Oyo

Adeleke in Osun has openly said he supports Tinubu which is why he refused to join ADC and separated from PDP

Tinubu is winning Lagos going forward. Many of those Anti Tinubu Yorubas have seen what the Obidient is in the past 4yrs. Many of them will vote Tinubu or stay at home

Tinubu will win more votes from the South than he did in 2023

My dear bro,you are not on ground.. . Even if you are,see Makinde is a Engima in Oyo. Him standing aloof was what made Tinubu to win in 2023. I hope you know that. In 2027 it wont be so again

With tinubu's obvious failure in all facets of Govornance has made his supporters,not you politicians delusioned. Just pray Seyi decides to stand aloof like 2023 that is the only thing that can make Tinubu to win Oyo.

Because ati Presidential,ati Govorship,in Oyo state,whereever Seyi Goes is where wè are going. There is no two ways about it.

As for Osun,adeleke can say whatever,he is just saying that for his own August election. Whatever he says,they dont even want to see you at all in Osun. You politicians always think its about you. The people of Osun dont want to see anything called APC there.Likewise in Oyo.

However like I said,you should be bothered about your Tinubu that has lost more goodwill than ever. He will struggle to win in his region and will lose Lagos as long as it is a Obi/Kwanwanso ticket.

You said many of those yoruba anti Tinubu has seen what Obidents are? What are they o jare? . That is what you say in your APc whatsapp groups to make yourself happy. Because you are surprised how this Man could spring surprises.

P.S Btw,who has dominated the media since yesterday? Both print, electronic and social media? It is OBI.

There goes your answer. My the universe spare our lives

Useless Analysis

happney65:
My dear bro,you are not on ground.. . Even if you are,see Makinde is a Engima in Oyo. Him standing aloof was what made Tinubu to win in 2023. I hope you know that. In 2027 it wont be so again

With tinubu's obvious failure in all facets of Govornance has made his supporters,not you politicians delusioned. Just pray Seyi decides to stand aloof like 2023 that is the only thing that can make Tinubu to win Oyo.

Because ati Presidential,ati Govorship,in Oyo state,whereever Seyi Goes is where wè are going. There is no two ways about it.

As for Osun,adeleke can say whatever,he is just saying that for his own August election. Whatever he says,they dont even want to see you at all in Osun. You politicians always think its about you. The people of Osun dont want to see anything called APC there.Likewise in Oyo.

However like I said,you should be bothered about your Tinubu that has lost more goodwill than ever. He will struggle to win in his region and will lose Lagos as long as it is a Obi/Kwanwanso ticket.

You said many of those yoruba anti Tinubu has seen what Obidents are? What are they o jare? . That is what you say in your APc whatsapp groups to make yourself happy. Because you are surprised how this Man could spring surprises.

P.S Btw,who has dominated the media since yesterday? Both print, electronic and social media? It is OBI.

There goes your answer. My the universe spare our lives

Are you willing to stake money on it. I will wager that Tinubu wins all 6 SW states including Lagos in 2027.

Any amount you want to bet I am game

LordBiden:
I'm not a tinubu fan but let me tell you this only death can stop him from winning next year.

The average Nigerian does not vote base on performance,they vote base on sentiments,tribe and religion.

He has control over the INEC, security agencies,huge war chest and federal power.

You also have another formidable political tactician on his side the ever wicked Nyesom wike.

Wike, political tactician? Hmm

raumdeuter:
Are you willing to stake money on it. I will wager that Tinubu wins all 6 SW states including Lagos in 2027.

Any amount you want to bet I am game

Sure

200K

And that Tinubu doesnt win all the SW States in 2027. That one sure for me daku..

We shall place the bets a month before the elections

Deal?

happney65:
Sure
200K
And that Tinubu doesnt win all the SW States in 2027. That one sure for me daku..
We shall place the bets a month before the elections
Deal?

We will seal this deal 1month before election by December 2026

happney65:
This my bro is funny. In the SW for example,if elections were held today, Tinubu will struggle to win. There will be a huge voter aparthy from a Man who has made his people poorer. No be say them say,I live here and a full blooded yoruba Man and I know lots of his supporters are dissapointed and most of them are even denying ever supporting him. It is what it is.

He will have more votes from the political class,but how.many are they? It is the people that vote and if things continue this way,the oppostion will just keep on being hrotter than before.

Infact his loss in the SW will be more than 2023. Because for sure he wont win Oyo. As Seyi might be on the ballot as VP candidate. Likewise Osun. Those ones dont even want to see or hear anything APC, and likewise Lagos if Obi and Kwanwanso will run a joint ticket

Oya tell me,if he cant win his region hands down, tell me where he will win?

Heeen?

Bro politics doesn’t work like that. I agree that if election is held today, he might not win. If you bring together every 100 yorubas that are muslims that voted for Tinubu in 2023 and you ask if they will be willing to vote for him again, I swear not more than 20 will say yes.
Where it gets more interesting is that a week to election, various financial gifts will be shared and it may sway their minds. On the eve of election, all APC units exco across all the wards will be called to a ward meeting where money for vote buying are shared . Names and addresses of those that will vote for APC would have been collected and the voters card and NIN number verified already. That is what they will use to pay.
I have many APC units excos as my friend

raumdeuter:
We will seal this deal 1month before election by December 2026

Definetly Boss!

Hoelujohn:
Bro politics doesn’t work like that. I agree that if election is held today, he might not win. If you bring together every 100 yorubas that are muslims that voted for Tinubu in 2023 and you ask if they will be willing to vote for him again, I swear not more than 20 will say yes.
Where it gets more interesting is that a week to election, various financial gifts will be shared and it may sway their minds. On the eve of election, all APC units exco across all the wards will be called to a ward meeting where money for vote buying are shared . Names and addresses of those that will vote for APC would have been collected and the voters card and NIN number verified already. That is what they will use to pay.
I have many APC units excos as my friend

See you're allowin them to use scare tactics on you..vote buying and the likes can work in staggered elections like the upcoming Osun election not at General elections like the Presidency

We have 176,000 plus polling boôths,how many boôths they wan buy during the Presidential?na wetin you do na him them go take pay you back. It is as Simple as that.

Today, Tinubu hasnt done well at all. And the people will respond back in kind in 2027 and that is why he is running helter skelter not wanting the oppostion to have any candidate

happney65:
See you're allowin them to use scare tactics on you..vote buying and the likes can work in staggered elections like the upcoming Osun election not at General elections like the Presidency

We have 176,000 plus polling boôths,how many boôths they wan buy during the Presidential?na wetin you do na him them go take pay you back. It is as Simple as that.

Today, Tinubu hasnt done well at all. And the people will respond back in kind in 2027 and that is why he is running helter skelter not wanting the oppostion to have any candidate

Money Dey ground ooo. Don’t play! The budget is 2-3 m per polling unit. That’s chicken change for APC oo. Why do you think they are borrowing money for road projects? Those road projects are where money for election will be generated from. If a project is awarded for 20 billion, the real value is always around 5 billion, the remaining na for stakeholders oo. All those given federal appointments must drop money for campaign too. That’s how APC operates oo.

InifinteXR:
I understand that people vote based on sentiments (tribe and religion) but you cannot deny the fact that the subsidy removal and floating of naira doesn't have any impact on people, I for one know many people that was behind PBAT in 2023 and are totally against him now due to economic issues obviously (not just a few people but many).

Yeah, the adminstration has control over INEC, security and others (which I accounted for) but it's not an absolute control, because if that was the case, then power won't ever change from any ruling party ever.

That is why it would be difficult to get as much as he did previously (though not impossible)

That's a lie
TINUBU will win based on performance

I just travelled down from Ibadan to Ado

Come and see concrete technology road ...
Obi rose on the back of ethno religion sentiment

Nothing to show when he was a governor

Ani ATIKU

Obi is a packaged fraud

Nigerians don open eyes now than before, the mistake of the past May not repeat it's self again , where Tribalism was used as a yardstick to give support to some unqualified persons as winners

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will sweep the entire SW. If Makinde gets a VP position his new party will even lose and might even affect his Governorship candidate in Oyo

Adeleke in Osun has openly said he supports Tinubu which is why he refused to join ADC and separated from PDP

Tinubu is winning Lagos going forward. Many of those Anti Tinubu Yorubas have seen what the Obidient is in the past 4yrs. Many of them will vote Tinubu or stay at home

Tinubu will win more votes from the South than he did in 2023

you have to distinguish between a political statement and a real statement..

LordBiden:
I'm not a tinubu fan but let me tell you this only death can stop him from winning next year.

The average Nigerian does not vote base on performance,they vote base on sentiments,tribe and religion.

He has control over the INEC, security agencies,huge war chest and federal power.

You also have another formidable political tactician on his side the ever wicked Nyesom wike.

Though the opposition bleeped up by not coming together to back and suppor one candidate.

Assume they aligned together, it will be tougher for APC to rig.

But stop saying what you don't know.

Your statement shows that you don't even know Nigeria politics.

Do you think that votes determines who win most Nigeria election/seat?

Do you think if election hold free and fair, even South West is not sure for tinubu.

Someone that couldn't win in the same Lagos he claimed to be transformed by him and his original home state Osun.

For tinubu to settled or bought governors to decamp to APC instead of pleasing the masses supposed to teach you something. The INEC and governors are the ones that have the power to change or manipulate each state votes.

1) Obi has votes already to defeat Tinubu, what he needed was people to protect his votes... I think he has gotten that right now so I see Obi alone getting minimum of 8 million votes. .. What happened in rivers, Akwa, ibom, cross river, Benue, plateau and nassarawa where his votes were significantly reduced won't be allowed again

But do not think he has such structure in Lagos

2) compared to 2023 Obi with his alliance with El rufai ,Bala Mohammed and kwankwaso has significantly improved his chances in the core North

Obi has the message they would help him spread it


On the issue of rigging lmao I just laugh won't say more than that for now

Hoelujohn:
Money Dey ground ooo. Don’t play! The budget is 2-3 m per polling unit. That’s chicken change for APC oo. Why do you think they are borrowing money for road projects? Those road projects are where money for election will be generated from. If a project is awarded for 20 billion, the real value is always around 5 billion, the remaining na for stakeholders oo. All those given federal appointments must drop money for campaign too. That’s how APC operates oo.

Forget it bro. It is not possible. Some of us have been voting for years and wè know how these things work. There are some things that are not possible and among them is this. All these are just fair mongering tactics and nothing else

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will sweep the entire SW...

I hope you don't include Ondo in this your prediction. At least 4 out of every 5 people here are raining curses on Tinubu everyday, even publicly on radio and tv programs. Many of us that supported and canvassed for him in 2023 are facing serious backlash from our people everyday. You can't force people who have been disappointed and impoverished by Tinubu's government to support him again. The poor performance of the current governor of Ondo State will also create more problem for Tinubu here. As long as people's votes will really count, Tinubu will struggle to win in Ondo State. Just wait and see

The issue is that you're counting random people and their shenanigans as a critical variable in APCs re election bid when it's not.

The APC has a fixed but growing amount of people who they've counted and completed their headcount as guaranteed. These are people who'll be paid on the day of the election and they'll deliver. That's where all the monies earmarked for projects and borrowed from foreign countries will go. Why do you think the government has been borrowing aggressively to build existing bridges in good condition in Lagos when they have no electricity power in the Country.

The second group are the people in the North who'll be used to fill up the ballots with fake votes which the INEC chairman will be used to confirm.

The other people with their sentiments and fish brain are the last on the list .Their own allocation are the banners on the street and their naturally naive, tribal and ignorant nature which will be used to manipulate them into perpetuating the evil we're facing.

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will sweep the entire SW. If Makinde gets a VP position his new party will even lose and might even affect his Governorship candidate in Oyo

Adeleke in Osun has openly said he supports Tinubu which is why he refused to join ADC and separated from PDP

Tinubu is winning Lagos going forward. Many of those Anti Tinubu Yorubas have seen what the Obidient is in the past 4yrs. Many of them will vote Tinubu or stay at home

Tinubu will win more votes from the South than he did in 2023

Very funny analysis.

So anti Tinubu yorubas have seen what Obidients are like in the past 4years that's why they will vote Tinubu this time but they have not seen how Tinubu has dragged the country into untold hardship.

Suit yourself with your analysis, it's a free world.

The opposition is not ready. The votes would be split again and bat will win.

The only way to win bat is for the opposition to come together, put egos aside, and combine Atiku and Obi. Anything else is a waste of time.

A clear opposition will make it difficult for apc to rig as the votes will be decisive and less spread out.

Alternatively, Obi and Kwankwaso should be a joint ticket with Atiku stepping aside to support them.

1vandragon:
The opposition is not ready. The votes would be split again and bat will win.

The only way to win bat is for the opposition to come together, put egos aside, and combine Atiku and Obi. Anything else is a waste of time.

A clear opposition will make it difficult for apc to rig as the votes will be decisive and less spread out.

Alternatively, Obi and Kwankwaso should be a joint ticket with Atiku stepping aside to support them.

I agree that the votes will be split again but this time PBAT might not be able to pull the 8.8 million he previously had due to the current economic hardship, most people particularly yorubas that genuinely supported him previously, 5 out of 10 (a generous estimate) are no longer in support of him (you can just walk around any market and ask random Yoruba people), which means the votes will be reduced by at least 1 million (another generous estimate) which will put him in the same boat as the opposition. I'm not saying it is not possible to win I'm just saying divided opposition this time doesn't guarantee winning.
And technically speaking, the opposition is even less divided than last time.

Election winning strategy
Those people running from there hometown won't vote
Those votes goes to the ruling party
How many immigrants do we have
It's a win for the ruling party
And that's not all more reason also is available
Rising tension close to election there's always things that will happen to reduce turnout

We need change, anyone that will reintroduce fuel subsidy