₦airaland Forum

Pastorsarynzay:
Obi won rivers and benue hands down. So add am up

Wetin be hands down here?

Atiku is treated as a don, a godfather. We are tired of godfathers. We want something different.

InifinteXR:
This is not necessarily true, check my analysis
https://www.nairaland.com/8665419/2027-victory-not-guaranteed-apc

That's your own view! My view is that all major players will lose voters and in the end the voting patern will be largely the same with Obi and Atiku each fighting fiercly for second and third!

Atiku may pick an Igbo man or at least a southerner to reduce Obi's influence in the south a little.

And it's not sure Kwankwaso still has the same 1.5million votes he pulled back then with him.

Uchesis:
In a free and fair election, Tinubu won't even get 2 million votes

Keep dreaming! So na who give am 8M votes?

Dricker:
delulu

Less than a year now!

SMerchant:
Tinubu has been tested but can't be trusted so his votes should come down by 3million plus. The 5 million that he will be getting will be out of tribal bigotry plus rigging, as the religious bigotry has reduced due his disastrous term in office and the hardship that follows.

Atiku is old and should retire1

Obi has been found to be unstable everywhere he is. One time they are party of criminality! When he joined them he became Jesus metting prostitutes and tax collectors aka sinners! Now song don change!

Daguccizgreat:
Without Obi, ADC is going no where. Atiku will fail woefully no matter whom he chose as VP

obi can't win the north. the race is still between Tinubu and Atiku. Kwankwaso just want to use obi to penetrate the obidient who are mostly south east in preparation for 2031. very smart move. I keep saying that igbos will be the pawn in the political chess game of 2027. the best combo will have be Atiku and obi and that will have lead to the surest way to igbo presidency.

AMINDA:
Southsouth and Southeast was locked for him in 2023 but he still lost. The work to be done is not in the Southsouth and Southeast. It's in the North! Tinubu lost those regions woefully including Lagos but still won because he got 5.6m votes in the North.

You're right, but 2027 might be different. Kwankwaso( his running mate) might be the game changer and his commitment (obi's) to do one term of 4years.

We rise by lifting others

kedeojo:
obi can't win the north. the race is still between Tinubu and Atiku. Kwankwaso just want to use obi to penetrate the obidient who are mostly south east in preparation for 2031. very smart move. I keep saying that igbos will be the pawn in the political chess game of 2027. the best combo will have be Atiku and obi and that will have lead to the surest way to igbo presidency.

That's not true brother. Obi will loose most of his followers (Obidients) if he accept to be Atiku vice presidential candidate. Must Atiku run in 2027, the south still has four years more to rule.



We rise by lifting other's

yarimo:
Obi you want to be president yet you are very scared of ordinary primary election

it's his turn ...no primary whatever.... Atiku should get that in his skull.

ogododo:
https://punchng.com/adc-coalition-train-still-moving-despite-obi-others-exit-atikus-ex-aide/

Sure! The ceiling fan when switched off grinds to a halt slowly!!

Hedonisco:
We're saying the same thing. The ability to bribe delegates does not confer electoral value in the general elections, especially when there is no 'federal might' or 'structures' to rig him in. The guy is annoying.

am sure he's not working for Tinubu is Obi that is working for Tinubu

kedeojo:
obi can't win the north. the race is still between Tinubu and Atiku. Kwankwaso just want to use obi to penetrate the obidient who are mostly south east in preparation for 2031. very smart move. I keep saying that igbos will be the pawn in the political chess game of 2027. the best combo will have be Atiku and obi and that will have lead to the surest way to igbo presidency.

What do you know to tell me about politics in Nigeria? You're naive.

AntiChristian:
Keep dreaming! So na who give am 8M votes?

I'm talking about 2027 elections.

A lot of people werw deceived in 2023

AMINDA:
Southsouth and Southeast was locked for him in 2023 but he still lost. The work to be done is not in the Southsouth and Southeast. It's in the North! Tinubu lost those regions woefully including Lagos but still won because he got 5.6m votes in the North.

Yes you're apt, but this time around the north are not with him(Tinubu). My major concern is Atiku(Spoiler cause is not yet the turn of Nothern Nigeria)who might probably split the votes Obi will get from that region.


We make a living by what we earn, but we make life by what we give

The honourable thing for ADC is to support NDC on the presidential election. Anything less than that will limit the context between Obi and Tinubu. We don't have issues with Atiku and he's a great man but always miscalculating. Power will remain in the south for the next 4 years and that is sacrosanct. Either Tinubu or any other Southerner.

AkhereOkaka:
Yes you're apt, but this time around the north are not with him(Tinubu). My major concern is Atiku(Spoiler cause is not yet the turn of Nothern Nigeria)who might probably split the votes Obi will get from that region.


We make a living by what we earn, but we make life by what we give

Who's turn was it in 2007 when Ojukwu contested after 8 years of Obasanjo? The North supported Tinubu because he had earlier Buhari against Jonathan. If Atiku will not be on the ballot, why exactly should the North vote Obi over Tinubu? Can you reap where you haven't sown? Since Obi will not get enough across board, it will be better for the Southeast to vote Tinubu in 2027. This way, they stand a better chance of getting the VP slot to a Northerner come 2031.

AntiChristian:
Doing the same thing and wanting a different result is called what?

Based on last election
Tinubu - 8,794, 726

Atiku - 6,984,520

Obi - 6,101,533

Kwakwaso - 1, 496,678

Obi + Kwankwaso = 7,598,211 They still need 1,196,515 votes to compete as regards total votes!

Detailed Regional Breakdown according to constitutional 25% requirement

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC): Surpassed 25% votes in 29 states across multiple regions:
South-West: Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Lagos.
North-West: Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Kano, Kaduna.
North-Central: Kwara, Niger, Kogi, Benue, Nasarawa, Plateau.
North-East: Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, Adamawa, Yobe.
South-South/East: Rivers, Cross River.

Atiku Abubakar (PDP): Secured ≥ 25% votes in 21 states, mainly in the North and South-South:
North: Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Yobe, Borno, Taraba, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Jigawa, Zamfara, Niger, Kwara, Nasarawa, Plateau.
South: Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, Rivers

Peter Obi (Labour Party): Achieved ≥ 25% votes in 16 states including the FCT, mostly in the South-East and South-South:
South-East: Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo
South-South: Edo, Delta, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Bayelsa
Others: Lagos, FCT, Nasarawa, Plateau, Taraba

Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP): Only secured ≥ 25% votes in Kano State, where he also won.

Let's be clear.

Tinubu has already lost half of the votes he allegedly won in 2023. If rigging is removed from the equation, there is no pathway for relection here. This is particularly true in the north-west and north-east, given the allegations of the 'Lagosisation' of his government by northern elites and the now evident failure of his government in all key performance indicators.

Even with the support of governors and rigging, Tinubu cannot receive 20 per cent of the votes in any south-east state if Peter Obi is on the ballot. The same goes for most south-south states. He will share Lagos with Peter Obi. Obi will also secure over 24 percent of the votes in Ondo and, depending on Makinde's alignment, he may also perform well in Oyo or not.

The key to the above prediction is the opposition's ability to effectively staff the polling stations and protect their votes against the government's long-standing rigging of the system.

Peter Obi will win the north-central states of Nasarawa, Plateau, Benue and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), effectively winning the region. The outcome in the north-west and north-east is too close to call at the moment. The outcome depends on whether Atiku will be on the ballot, and who Malam Nasir El-Rufai works for, even from prison.

ottersberger:
Let's be clear.

Tinubu has already lost half of the votes he allegedly won in 2023. If rigging is removed from the equation, there is no pathway for relection here. This is particularly true in the north-west and north-east, given the allegations of the 'Lagosisation' of his government by northern elites and the now evident failure of his government in all key performance indicators.

Even with the support of governors and rigging, Tinubu cannot receive 20 per cent of the votes in any south-east state if Peter Obi is on the ballot. The same goes for most south-south states. He will share Lagos with Peter Obi. Obi will also secure over 24 percent of the votes in Ondo and, depending on Makinde's alignment, he may also perform well in Oyo or not.

The key to the above prediction is the opposition's ability to effectively staff the polling stations and protect their votes against the government's long-standing rigging of the system.

Peter Obi will win the north-central states of Nasarawa, Plateau, Benue and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), effectively winning the region. The outcome in the north-west and north-east is too close to call at the moment. The outcome depends on whether Atiku will be on the ballot, and who Malam Nasir El-Rufai works for, even from prison.

I also want to be clear and factual that many in SE did rig for Obi too! That's why he was able to pull that much across the SE while LP performed poorly in the governorship and other elections. You can check the attached. So if rigging is removed as you said, Peter Obi too will have much less votes in the SE and all of them go collect the same way!

In the end the end ratios and spread will be similar to last election and BAT will have an edge again!