₦airaland Forum

AMINDA:
How many votes did Atiku get in the South in 2023? In your view, can Tinubu get all his 5.6m Northern votes that he got in 2023? If not, who will those lost voters be voting for? Take away the money induced governors, has Tinubu gotten more popular or less popular among the electorates than he was in 2023?

That low votes Atiku got in the south is why he lost and will still lost. Tinubu getting votes from both north and south is why he won. Tinubu doesn't necessarily need to win anywhere but to get significant votes. Tinubu might have gotten weaker in some areas while getting stronger in other areas. Atiku has gotten weaker overall

Akpakomiza2:
That low votes Atiku got in the south is why he lost and will still lost. Tinubu getting votes from both north and south is why he won. Tinubu doesn't necessarily need to win anywhere but to get significant votes. Tinubu might have gotten weaker in some areas while getting stronger in other areas. Atiku has gotten weaker overall

With low votes in the South, Tinubu's margins over Atiku was less than 1.5m. This was in 2023 when Northerners actually campaigned with their full might for Tinubu against their son, Atiku. You didn't answer the question. Has Tinubu gotten more popular in the North? If he hasn't, who has he lost part of his Northern votes to? Atiku came a close second without Southern votes, Tinubu got 65% of his total votes from the North. Do the maths.

AMINDA:
With low votes in the South, Tinubu's margins over Atiku was less than 1.5m. This was in 2023 when Northerners actually campaigned with their full might for Tinubu against their son, Atiku. You didn't answer the question. Has Tinubu gotten more popular in the North? If he hasn't, who has he lost part of his Northern votes to? Atiku came a close second without Southern votes, Tinubu got 65% of his total votes from the North. Do the maths.

Tinubu has gotten more popular in north central. Nothing has changed in core north. If a whole Buhari couldn't win with just north east and north west, Small Atiku cannot sir. There is no pathway for Atiku.

AMINDA:
To Tinubu's detriment. This means he can no longer campaign with "turn of the South". With Obi leaving the ADC, he now shares Tinubu's Southern votes with him and will most likely come out on top in the South. The question is, will the North come through for Tinubu in 2027 like they came through for him in 2023 when Obi mopped the floor with him across the South (including Lagos)?

I'll love to have a thread between you and Tinubu's supporters with both parties reeling out facts like this... I love the way you analyse things

Now, I'll look for a response to this

Akpakomiza2:
Tinubu has gotten more popular in north central. Nothing has changed in core north. If a whole Buhari couldn't win with just north east and north west, Small Atiku cannot sir. There is no pathway for Atiku.

Buhari couldn't win because it was always a two-horse race with his opponents always winning the entire South and Christian North/Middlebelt. With a three-horse race, Tinubu won with the lowest margin of votes ever and 65% of those votes had to come from the North. He lost the entire South, including Lagos, and won in only 4 Southwestern states. With Obi in the race, Tinubu still can't lay claim to the Southern votes as at today. If he repeats the muslim-muslim ticket, a substantial part of the middlebelt will still prefer to vote Obi. So where will his bloc votes come from?

Kukutente23:
Wetin him do

Wike wants him out .... Mbah is the Trojan horse.

AMINDA:
Buhari couldn't win because it was always a two-horse race with his opponents always winning the entire South and Christian North/Middlebelt. With a three-horse race, Tinubu won with the lowest margin of votes ever and 65% of those votes had to come from the North. He lost the entire South, including Lagos, and won in only 4 Southwestern states. With Obi in the race, Tinubu still can't lay claim to the Southern votes as at today. If he repeats the muslim-muslim ticket, a substantial part of the middlebelt will still prefer to vote Obi. So where will his bloc votes come from?

He lost it because he failed colossally in the other 4 regions. You are making the same mistake obidients make. They thought Tinubu, kwankwaso and atiku will share core north votes making it useless but they forgot that of Obi does not score significant votes in the core north, it will affect his overall tally. For instance Atiku got 288k in sokoto, Tinubu got 285k while obi got 5k. Obi lost but this damaged obi. This Tinubu vote in sokoto cancelled obi's winning in Ebonyi. Across the 17 southern states, Atiku will lose colossally. Any state Tinubu loses, he will trash Atiku there( Atiku will come a distant third) which will offset Atiku vote in a core northern state. For instance Tinubu lost Lagos but beat Atiku there by over 400k. This cancelled atiku winning in Adamawa and Kaduna. Atiku highest margin was in Adamawa yet tinubu got 25% there. Can you see how Tinubu is strong and how useless your Atiku is? Tinubu got 25% in all the 19 northern states. Infact Tinubu is beating atiku in the 6 north central states. This margin is insurmountable....

In summary, presidential elections is about margins and spread not number of states victories. Tinubu looks at the margins. No matter the votes Atiku gets in the core northern 11 states, it will never be up to the one buhari got in 2011 and 2003. Infact, Atiku can't win all the 11 core north states, Tinubu is sure if winning zamfara and Borno and perhaps sokoto, Jigawa. He will still trash Atiku in Kano. There is no pathway for Atiku except he finds a way like buhari to win north central

Akpakomiza2:
He lost it because he failed colossally in the other 4 regions. You are making the same mistake obidients make. They thought Tinubu, kwankwaso and atiku will share core north votes making it useless but they forgot that of Obi does not score significant votes in the core north, it will affect his overall tally. For instance Atiku got 288k in sokoto, Tinubu got 285k while obi got 5k. Obi lost but this damaged obi. This Tinubu vote in sokoto cancelled obi's winning in Ebonyi. Across the 17 southern states, Atiku will lose colossally. Any state Tinubu loses, he will trash Atiku there( Atiku will come a distant third) which will offset Atiku vote in a core northern state. For instance Tinubu lost Lagos but beat Atiku there by over 400k. This cancelled atiku winning in Adamawa and Kaduna. Atiku highest margin was in Adamawa yet tinubu got 25% there. Can you see how Tinubu is strong and how useless your Atiku is? Tinubu got 25% in all the 19 northern states. Infact Tinubu is beating atiku in the 6 north central states. This margin is insurmountable....

In summary, presidential elections is about margins and spread not number of states victories. Tinubu looks at the margins. No matter the votes Atiku gets in the core northern 11 states, it will never be up to the one buhari got in 2011 and 2003. Infact, Atiku can't win all the 11 core north states, Tinubu is sure if winning zamfara and Borno and perhaps sokoto, Jigawa. He will still trash Atiku in Kano. There is no pathway for Atiku except he finds a way like buhari to win north central

Maybe you should look at the 2023 numbers again. I just told you the North went all out to vote Tinubu in that election. The atmosphere heading into 2023 is no longer the same. If Tinubu fails to win the South in a landslide and scrap margins from the North like other previous Southern presidents did in the past, he will not get the highest number of votes cast. Atiku will. Tinubu will get the spread but may not get the highest votes. Atiku will get the highest votes cast but may not get the spread. This will then throw the election into a run-off. With rumours of Jonathan entering the race, Tinubu's chances are further complicated.

AMINDA:
Maybe you should look at the 2023 numbers again. I just told you the North went all out to vote Tinubu in that election. The atmosphere heading into 2023 is no longer the same. If Tinubu fails to win the South in a landslide and scrap margins from the North like other previous Southern presidents did in the past, he will not get the highest number of votes cast. Atiku will. Tinubu will get the spread but may not get the highest votes. Atiku will get the highest votes cast but may not get the spread. This will then throw the election into a run-off. With rumours of Jonathan entering the race, Tinubu's chances are further complicated.

You are getting confused by 2023 numbers. You should study the figures from 1999 or at least from 2015 to get a better understanding. You clearly do not understand electoral maths and people like you end up deceiving Atiku. The dynamics have changed for all candidates. Atiku cannot get a landslide in the north against Tinubu, he is too weak to do that and Tinubu is too strong even if he is unpopular, Atiku is not popular enough to pull it off...

Tinubu may not win the south in a landslide against Obi but he will do so against Atiku, is that too hard to comprehend? Let's say Tinubu gets 4.5 mil in the south, obi 4 mil, Atiku 500k. That's a landslide against Atiku. Atiku gets 5 mil in the north, Tinubu 3.5 mil, he has scrapped significant margins up north. Atiku wins the north but overall Tinubu wins. Why is it hard for you to grasp this?

Gej is not going to contest sir. If he did, it will reduce Tinubu chances and if obi pairs with Atiku, it reduce Tinubu chances. As it stands game over for Atiku

fergie001:
The meeting is still ongoing as of press time and a new chairman of the forum is expected to be announced soon


SOURCE

Fake News without source.
Is Nairaland now a merchant of fake news?
This is making the second fake news on the front page today.
I see why people are leaving Nairaland.

Guestmale:
You're wrong ,the supreme court didn't just dash Hope Uzodima the governor seat,he earned it.How? Wrongful Exclusion of Votes: The seven-man panel, led by the then Chief Justice of Nigeria, Justice Tanko Muhammad, unanimously held that votes from 388 polling units were unlawfully excluded during the collation of the final election results.

Result Computation: The court accepted the results presented by Hope Uzodinma from the 388 polling units. When these votes (213,695 for APC and 1,903 for PDP) were added to the results initially declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), it was determined that Uzodinma secured the majority of lawful votes.

Removal and Installation: The court declared Ihedioha’s election null and void, ordered the withdrawal of his Certificate of Return, and directed that a new certificate be issued to Hope Uzodinma, who was sworn in immediately.

The Governor you can say he was dashed the governorship seat is Governor Diri of Bayelsa state supreme court removed the real winner of the election and put Diri who came second because of discrepancies in the names of the real winner's deputy.

This happened a day to inauguration. The winner was already rehearsing when the judgement came.
APC messed up for not doing their screening properly.

There is no hope for hope

fergie001:
Wike wants him out .... Mbah is the Trojan horse.

BAT will not allow that.

Go over this thread to know the extend of Hope Uzodinmabuilt n delivered road. Hit me hope if you still want to debate if he is the best governorbin the SE since 1999 or not. Na preamble be this

https://www.nairaland.com/8623751/thread-ogun-vs-imo-project

Dalohad:
What are his performances? And why is the Ihiala-Orlu road the worst road down south. Anambra (a non-APC state) have fixed their own portion on the road since Willie Obiano. Why has Hope (an APC man) not fixed the Imo part.

What has Imo really gained from APC apart from the party foisting 419ers and Ogboni cultists on the Imo State people as governors.