₦airaland Forum

Makinde contesting the 2027 presidential election could affect Atiku’s chances in Oyo State more than it affects Tinubu’s.

A lot of people believe Makinde joining the race under APM will mainly reduce Tinubu’s votes in Oyo, but if you look closely at the 2023 presidential election results, the bigger damage may actually be on Atiku’s side.

2023 Oyo Presidential Results:

* Tinubu — 449k votes
* Atiku — 182k votes
* Peter Obi — 99k votes

Despite Tinubu’s dominance, Atiku was still able to secure the required 25% in Oyo. But with Makinde now potentially on the ballot and the PDP structure in Oyo no longer fully aligned with Atiku, a large portion of anti-Tinubu voters could naturally shift toward Makinde instead.

Many of the people who voted against Tinubu in 2023 are 50% likely to vote against him again in 2027, but this time Makinde may become the direct beneficiary of those votes.

Yes, Tinubu may lose some support too, but percentage-wise, the impact on Atiku could be much deeper because Makinde directly cuts into the PDP voting base and opposition structure in the Southwest.

At this point, Atiku will struggle to secure 25% in most Southwest states. Osun, for example, will also vote very differently in 2027 because Adeleke openly support Tinubu.

Strategically, one could argue that the best option for Atiku would have been a Makinde/Atiku alliance or Makinde deputizing him. That combination could have opened more doors in the Southwest and strengthened PDP’s chances of reaching the constitutional spread requirement.

LegendHero:
Makinde contesting the 2027 presidential election could affect Atiku’s chances in Oyo State more than it affects Tinubu’s.
A lot of people believe Makinde joining the race under APM will mainly reduce Tinubu’s votes in Oyo, but if you look closely at the 2023 presidential election results, the bigger damage may actually be on Atiku’s side.
2023 Oyo Presidential Results:
* Tinubu — 449k votes
* Atiku — 182k votes
* Peter Obi — 99k votes

Despite Tinubu’s dominance, Atiku was still able to secure the required 25% in Oyo. But with Makinde now potentially on the ballot and the PDP structure in Oyo no longer fully aligned with Atiku, a large portion of anti-Tinubu voters could naturally shift toward Makinde instead.

Many of the people who voted against Tinubu in 2023 are 50% likely to vote against him again in 2027, but this time Makinde may become the direct beneficiary of those votes.

Yes, Tinubu may lose some support too, but percentage-wise, the impact on Atiku could be much deeper because Makinde directly cuts into the PDP voting base and opposition structure in the Southwest.

At this point, Atiku will struggle to secure 25% in most Southwest states. Osun, for example, will also vote very differently in 2027 because Adeleke openly support Tinubu.

Strategically, one could argue that the best option for Atiku would have been a Makinde/Atiku alliance or Makinde deputizing him. That combination could have opened more doors in the Southwest and strengthened PDP’s chances of reaching the constitutional spread requirement.

As it stands now, even Sowore may defeat Tinubu.

LegendHero:
Makinde contesting the 2027 presidential election could affect Atiku’s chances in Oyo State more than it affects Tinubu’s.

A lot of people believe Makinde joining the race under APM will mainly reduce Tinubu’s votes in Oyo, but if you look closely at the 2023 presidential election results, the bigger damage may actually be on Atiku’s side.

2023 Oyo Presidential Results:

* Tinubu — 449k votes
* Atiku — 182k votes
* Peter Obi — 99k votes

Despite Tinubu’s dominance, Atiku was still able to secure the required 25% in Oyo. But with Makinde now potentially on the ballot and the PDP structure in Oyo no longer fully aligned with Atiku, a large portion of anti-Tinubu voters could naturally shift toward Makinde instead.

Many of the people who voted against Tinubu in 2023 are 50% likely to vote against him again in 2027, but this time Makinde may become the direct beneficiary of those votes.

Yes, Tinubu may lose some support too, but percentage-wise, the impact on Atiku could be much deeper because Makinde directly cuts into the PDP voting base and opposition structure in the Southwest.

At this point, Atiku will struggle to secure 25% in most Southwest states. Osun, for example, will also vote very differently in 2027 because Adeleke openly support Tinubu.

Strategically, one could argue that the best option for Atiku would have been a Makinde/Atiku alliance or Makinde deputizing him. That combination could have opened more doors in the Southwest and strengthened PDP’s chances of reaching the constitutional spread requirement.

Why cry over what was never lost? Even by the figures up there it is quite obvious to a mathematical mind that he never got 25% there in the first place. Your concern instead should be redirected towards Tinubu who worked with Seyi Makinde and the popular G5 to frustrate pdp then and deliver Presidential votes to him in Oyo State. The question on everyone's lips is what now happens to those votes now that Seyi is on the ballot? Will APC secure 25% in the Presidential election in Oyo State? In the words of my good friend, AMINDA, Time indeed is a gentleman.

WhizdomXX:
Why cry over what was never lost? Even by the figures up there it is quite obvious to a mathematical mind that he never got 25% there in the first place. Your concern instead should be redirected towards Tinubu who worked with Seyi Makinde and the popular G5 to frustrate pdp then and deliver Presidential votes to him in Oyo State. The question on everyone's lips is what now happens to those votes now that Seyi is on the ballot? Will APC secure 25% in the Presidential election in Oyo State? In the words of my good friend, AMINDA, Time indeed is a gentleman.

Guy if Seyi Makinde put all his heart for Tinubu in 2023 election, can you explain how Atiku got over 182k votes? Who are those that voted for Atiku in that election?

Atiku is more finished by Makinde. While we can argue Makinde might take 10% of Tinubu voting base in Oyo, he will eat more into traditional PDP stronghold of Atiku that for Atiku to even get any reasonable votes in any SW state will be a miracle.

Lol why will APC not get 25% in Oyo, even when Adeleke fully supported Atiku in Osun, APC still got over 45% of the votes. Shey na Oyo wey be the stronghold of core Yoruba people Jagaban no go come win.

Validated:
As it stands now, even Sowore may defeat Tinubu.

I agree, even Nnamdi Kanu can defeat Tinubu

LegendHero:
Guy if Seyi Makinde put all his heart for Tinubu in 2023 election, can you explain how Atiku got over 182k votes? Who are those that voted for Atiku in that election?

Atiku is more finished by Makinde. While we can argue Makinde might take 10% of Tinubu voting base in Oyo, he will eat more into traditional PDP stronghold of Atiku that for Atiku to even get any reasonable votes in any SW state will be a miracle.

Lol why will APC not get 25% in Oyo, even when Adeleke fully supported Atiku in Osun, APC still got over 45% of the votes. Shey na Oyo wey be the stronghold of core Yoruba people Jagaban no go come win.

APC is stronger in Osun than in Oyo, factos. Yes, ADC will perform better in Osun than in Oyo, depending on if Adeleke wins his race. Oyo is conservative, they will support a son of the soil. Ibadan politicians that made Awolowo to go and beg . In the voice of Odin13, we will learn politics together.

WhizdomXX:
APC is stronger in Osun than in Oyo, factos. Yes, ADC will perform better in Osun than in Oyo, depending on if Adeleke wins his race. Oyo is conservative, they will support a son of the soil. Ibadan politicians that made Awolowo to go and beg . In the voice of Odin13, we will learn politics together.

Guy I’m from Ibadan too. Oyo state is not only Ibadan and if you’re talking the core conservative base, you’ll mention Oyo, Ogbomosho, all those Ibarapas and etc.

Olubadan is openly on Tinubu side and you have lot of APC heavyweights in Ibadan.

I can argue this with anybody that Atiku should be more frustrated of Makinde running than Tinubu.

Look at Kano in 2023 for example, Kwakwanso eat into Atiku base because APC have a standing and those that would naturally vote Atiku if Kwakwanso was not on the ballot thumprinted for Kwakwanso because APC folks will always vote APC folks.

Tinubu will still get his nothing less than 400k*m+ votes in Oyo state even if Olubadan himself is on the ticket.

LegendHero:
Guy I’m from Ibadan too. Oyo state is not only Ibadan and if you’re talking the core conservative base, you’ll mention Oyo, Ogbomosho, all those Ibarapas and etc.

Olubadan is openly on Tinubu side and you have lot of APC heavyweights in Ibadan.

I can argue this with anybody that Atiku should be more frustrated of Makinde running than Tinubu.

Look at Kano in 2023 for example, Kwakwanso eat into Atiku base because APC have a standing and those that would naturally vote Atiku if Kwakwanso was not on the ballot thumprinted for Kwakwanso because APC folks will always vote APC folks.

Tinubu will still get his nothing less than 400k*m+ votes in Oyo state even if Olubadan himself is on the ticket.

Lol. You making jokes of the Olubadan whom is your jokers card spoilt the write-up. APC folks don't vote for APC folks na. Buhari scored close to 2m in kano in 2015, why did they not turn out for Tinubu in 23? Kwankwaso was Atiku's Campaign DG in the north yet Atiku got 300k in Kano in 2019, then 170 when Kwankwaso was on the ticket in 2023. It affects both but APC more.

WhizdomXX:
Lol. You making jokes of the Olubadan whom is your jokers card spoilt the write-up. APC folks don't vote for APC folks na. Buhari scored close to 2m in kano in 2015, why did they not turn out for Tinubu in 23? Kwankwaso was Atiku's Campaign DG in the north yet Atiku got 300k in Kano in 2019, then 170 when Kwankwaso was on the ticket in 2023. It affects both but APC more.

Olubadan Ladoja can’t defeat Asiwaju if he is on the ballot for the presidential ticket under the same circumstances.

Your Buhari example is a good analogy. The Northerners know Buhari will win aside his own street credibility, that explained why Kano gave Buhari their majority votes and they know Atiku is just a joker.

Same exact thing will play out in Oyo state. Tinubu is a Yoruba man, Oyo is a conservative Yoruba state, everybody including Makinde know he’s just into this for his own Senators/rep candidate because of how APC won all the senatorial seat in 2023 election in Oyo.

Makinde himself is not serious and the Oyo electorate are well informed.

I repeat, Atiku should be more scared because all his PDP base in the SW have been eroded and Makinde will just eat into that and Atiku won’t even have 25% in any state in the whole South.

LegendHero:
Olubadan Ladoja can’t defeat Asiwaju if he is on the ballot for the presidential ticket under the same circumstances.

Your Buhari example is a good analogy. The Northerners know Buhari will win aside his own street credibility, that explained why Kano gave Buhari their majority votes and they know Atiku is just a joker.

Same exact thing will play out in Oyo state. Tinubu is a Yoruba man, Oyo is a conservative Yoruba state, everybody including Makinde know he’s just into this for his own Senators/rep candidate because of how APC won all the senatorial seat in 2023 election in Oyo.

Makinde himself is not serious and the Oyo electorate are well informed.

I repeat, Atiku should be more scared because all his PDP base in the SW have been eroded and Makinde will just eat into that and Atiku won’t even have 25% in any state in the whole South.

No problem. I'm not an Atiku fan per say. I trust he's seeing what is happening. My prayer is for a runoff to happen with Tinubu.

WhizdomXX:
No problem. I'm not an Atiku fan per say. I trust he's seeing what is happening. My prayer is for a runoff to happen with Tinubu.

In the event of a runoff with Tinubu, then that simply means Tinubu will win again.

In a runoff, with Atiku using his same VP, he will still not be able to comfortably get 25% in 6 Southern states to add to his 19 Northern states except id the South East choose to support him in the rerun.

LegendHero:
In the event of a runoff with Tinubu, then that simply means Tinubu will win again.

In a runoff, with Atiku using his same VP, he will still not be able to comfortably get 25% in 6 Southern states to add to his 19 Northern states except id the South East choose to support him in the rerun.

And they may. A week is a long time in politics.

When I said Makinde shouldn't be taken seriously, some people don't understand

Is APM not Amosun's party, same Amosun struggling for Apc ticket for Senate

The opposition will learn in a bitter way

No one is voting Atiku across SW. The votes he got last time was because of PDP faithfuls. With his ADC he will perform worse this time around with no governor willing to work for/with him.

LegendHero:
In the event of a runoff with Tinubu, then that simply means Tinubu will win again.

In a runoff, with Atiku using his same VP, he will still not be able to comfortably get 25% in 6 Southern states to add to his 19 Northern states except id the South East choose to support him in the rerun.

In a scenario like that, I’m sure the SE will support Atiku sadly.

WhizdomXX:
Lol. You making jokes of the Olubadan whom is your jokers card spoilt the write-up. APC folks don't vote for APC folks na. Buhari scored close to 2m in kano in 2015, why did they not turn out for Tinubu in 23? Kwankwaso was Atiku's Campaign DG in the north yet Atiku got 300k in Kano in 2019, then 170 when Kwankwaso was on the ticket in 2023. It affects both but APC more.

then 170 when Kwankwaso was on the ticket in 2023.
Cross check your figures

No more straight victory for Tinubu? Una don Dey mention run off now?

It’s funny how you people think it’s only APC members that voted Tinubu in 2023. Some were neutral voters that voted him based off the lies sold to people that he built Lagos and all. Now that they’ve seen what a failure he is, I won’t be surprised if some of those if not all of those people choose to vote against him this time around.

LegendHero:
Guy if Seyi Makinde put all his heart for Tinubu in 2023 election, can you explain how Atiku got over 182k votes? Who are those that voted for Atiku in that election?

Atiku is more finished by Makinde. While we can argue Makinde might take 10% of Tinubu voting base in Oyo, he will eat more into traditional PDP stronghold of Atiku that for Atiku to even get any reasonable votes in any SW state will be a miracle.

Lol why will APC not get 25% in Oyo, even when Adeleke fully supported Atiku in Osun, APC still got over 45% of the votes. Shey na Oyo wey be the stronghold of core Yoruba people Jagaban no go come win.

You are naive, isn't same thing that happened in Rivers state in Santa election? makinde out forward his all same way Wike did and we the voters messed him up (irev is a proof) and had to resort to changing the physical results which were different from the uploaded irev results.

That election Seyi supported Tinubu that's why he won, this one Seyi isn't supporting him the only way to win is to use the Wike format in Rivers State.

Validated:
As it stands now, even Sowore may defeat Tinubu.

Adults are discussing politics here. When we need to send someone to buy something you kids will be summoned, OK? In the meantime, go and do your homework.

LegendHero:
Guy I’m from Ibadan too. Oyo state is not only Ibadan and if you’re talking the core conservative base, you’ll mention Oyo, Ogbomosho, all those Ibarapas and etc.

Olubadan is openly on Tinubu side and you have lot of APC heavyweights in Ibadan.

I can argue this with anybody that Atiku should be more frustrated of Makinde running than Tinubu.

Look at Kano in 2023 for example, Kwakwanso eat into Atiku base because APC have a standing and those that would naturally vote Atiku if Kwakwanso was not on the ballot thumprinted for Kwakwanso because APC folks will always vote APC folks.

Tinubu will still get his nothing less than 400k*m+ votes in Oyo state even if Olubadan himself is on the ticket.

You have time explaining things to these children. You'd be more successful reasoning with those heads on Mount Rushmore.

LegendHero:
Guy if Seyi Makinde put all his heart for Tinubu in 2023 election, can you explain how Atiku got over 182k votes? Who are those that voted for Atiku in that election?

Atiku is more finished by Makinde. While we can argue Makinde might take 10% of Tinubu voting base in Oyo, he will eat more into traditional PDP stronghold of Atiku that for Atiku to even get any reasonable votes in any SW state will be a miracle.

Lol why will APC not get 25% in Oyo, even when Adeleke fully supported Atiku in Osun, APC still got over 45% of the votes. Shey na Oyo wey be the stronghold of core Yoruba people Jagaban no go come win.

Sometimes I marvel at the mentality of some of you. So a governor putting his whole heart in means the electorates can no longer vote their choices? Does it mean Obi stands no chance in his Southeast if all the APC governors put their whole hearts in? Would you change your mind from voting Tinubu if the APC governor in your state defects today and puts his whole heart into his new party? Atiku won more APC states in 2023 than PDP states and it wasn't because the APC governors didn't put their whole hearts in.

All I see in your permutation is fear speaking. Makinde will only make Tinubu bleed votes in the Southwest. Tinubu is supposed to win the SW in a landslide to stand a chance. In 2023, Atiku got 6.9m votes mostly from the North and the North still gave Tinubu 5.6m votes. If Tinubu is no longer popular in the North, that doesn't mean his previous 5.6m voters are now deceased or will be boycotting the election. Far from it. Majority of them will be voting Atiku instead to make up for whatever numbers he may lose in the SW. Atiku’s only challenge in 2027 will be meeting the ⅔ spread. He's already set to get the highest number of votes cast.

AMINDA:
Sometimes I marvel at the mentality of some of you. So a governor putting his whole heart in means the electorates can no longer vote their choices? Does it mean Obi stands no chance in his Southeast if all the APC governors put their whole hearts in? Would you change your mind from voting Tinubu if the APC governor in your state defects today and puts his whole heart into his new party? Atiku won more APC states in 2023 than PDP states and it wasn't because the APC governors didn't put their whole hearts in.

All I see in your permutation is fear speaking. Makinde will only make Tinubu bleed votes in the Southwest. Tinubu is supposed to win the SW in a landslide to stand a chance. In 2023, Atiku got 6.9m votes mostly from the North and the North still gave Tinubu 5.6m votes. If Tinubu is no longer popular in the North, that doesn't mean his previous 5.6m voters are now deceased or will be boycotting the election. Far from it. Majority of them will be voting Atiku instead to make up for whatever numbers he may lose in the SW. Atiku’s only challenge in 2027 will be meeting the ⅔ spread. He's already set to get the highest number of votes cast.

Thank you o. They are just trying to make themselves happy after what happened yesterday which they didnt see coming

They should be focused on Seyi who is going to put an heavy dagger in tinubu's vote.and leave Atiku alone in this regard.

I'm expecting them to start playing Ogunde's song for Seyi anytime soon. They will tell me if Seyi is a lesser Human being

While they were focused on Obi,Seyi shocked them

People are consoling themselves actually..... 😂.
How will you convince an Ibadan or Ogbomoso man to vote Atiku ahead of Tinubu? If you are talking about Osun, it could be let's say maybe. His wife is from Osun, he won Osun in 2023....not Oyo.
I don't know how Atiku will get 25% in any Southern State.

Tinubu is the most hit with Makinde's declaration.

AMINDA:
Sometimes I marvel at the mentality of some of you. So a governor putting his whole heart in means the electorates can no longer vote their choices? Does it mean Obi stands no chance in his Southeast if all the APC governors put their whole hearts in? Would you change your mind from voting Tinubu if the APC governor in your state defects today and puts his whole heart into his new party? Atiku won more APC states in 2023 than PDP states and it wasn't because the APC governors didn't put their whole hearts in.

All I see in your permutation is fear speaking. Makinde will only make Tinubu bleed votes in the Southwest. Tinubu is supposed to win the SW in a landslide to stand a chance. In 2023, Atiku got 6.9m votes mostly from the North and the North still gave Tinubu 5.6m votes. If Tinubu is no longer popular in the North, that doesn't mean his previous 5.6m voters are now deceased or will be boycotting the election. Far from it. Majority of them will be voting Atiku instead to make up for whatever numbers he may lose in the SW. Atiku’s only challenge in 2027 will be meeting the ⅔ spread. He's already set to get the highest number of votes cast.

Apart from Gombe and Adamawa, Atiku will struggle in the North

fergie001:
People are consoling themselves actually..... 😂.
How will you convince an Ibadan or Ogbomoso man to vote Atiku ahead of Tinubu? If you are talking about Osun, it could be let's say maybe. His wife is from Osun, he won Osun in 2023....not Oyo.

Tinubu is the most hit with Makinde's declaration.

Most of those that will vote Makinde would not have voted Tinubu. The votes Atiku and obi got in Oyo will now go to makinde. Tinubu and makinde will now be close will Atiku obi will struggle for bottom

Akpakomiza2:
Most of those that will vote Makinde would not have voted Tinubu. The votes Atiku and obi got in Oyo will now go to makinde. Tinubu and makinde will now be close will Atiku obi will struggle for bottom

Who voted Atiku in the last election?
People who voted him, voted PDP because of Makinde's re-election.

Tinubu is worse off now!

fergie001:
Who voted Atiku in the last election?
People who voted him, voted PDP because of Makinde's re-election.

Tinubu is worse off now!

Not so. Atiku had 180k in Oyo, Obi had 90k. Most of these will go to makinde now. Mind you, Atiku has always recorded good votes in the SW. Both obi and Atiku won't see 10%. Besides, tinubu lost osun and Lagos 2023 so losing two SW states will mean nothing as far as obi and atiku lose woefully

Akpakomiza2:
Not so. Atiku had 180k in Oyo, Obi had 90k. Most of these will go to makinde now. Mind you, Atiku has always recorded good votes in the SW. Both obi and Atiku won't see 10%. Besides, tinubu lost osun and Lagos 2023 so losing two SW states will mean nothing as far as obi and atiku lose woefully

Not SW..... Ondo & Osun.
Ondo is gone, Mimiko has defected.

Lagos & Oyo, most populated and it's nothing, na wah!
Did Atiku and Obi record 25% last time out? NO.
Without Makinde's defection, will they have recorded 25%, NO.
This President is deeply unpopular and see there will be apathy. I believe he will still win because the opposition is unconvincing, but he should worry.

fergie001:
Not SW..... Ondo & Osun.
Ondo is gone, Mimiko has defected.

Lagos & Oyo, most populated and it's nothing, na wah!
Did Atiku and Obi record 25% last time out? NO.
Without Makinde's defection, will they have recorded 25%, NO.
This President is deeply unpopular and see there will be apathy. I believe he will still win because the opposition is unconvincing, but he should worry.

My dear, you know very well that I am very good in this so don't argue. In 2023, you foresaw a runoff and it never happened....

Atiku recorded 25% in 3 SW states, he even won one. Now that's gone. Mimiko is no longer relevant please, his defection means nothing. Tinubu's highest margins was from Ondo..
The opposition in SW share from the same vote pool. Obi and Atiku in 2023 got 1.7 mil combined, that's what PDP usually got in SW between 2015 and 2019. But now in 2023, it divided. Seyi will share from this same pool which means an average of 400k. Atiku used to do well in Lagos but in 2023 he lost badly because obi took his votes. On face value, it reduced Tinubu votes heavily damaged Atiku overall. Can you now see the ripple effects?
Makinde is just a distraction, he isn't going to win. Tinubu concern is Atiku and obi. What makinde gets is not important but what obi/ Atiku gets, Tinubu eyes will be on them. In presidential elections, number of states doesn't matter but margins and spread. Tinubu concern is to increase his margin against Atiku obi in SW and makinde will help him greatly...

Let's look at it from the religious angle. Tinubu greatest supporters in SW are from the Muslims. Now the christians that would not have voted him and voted Atiku or obi will go with Makinde... Oyo will now be like this Tinubu 400k makinde 350k Atiku 30k Obi 20k. Compare this to 2023 and see. Same Oyo that Atiku won in 2019.
If makinde was running with Atiku or supporting one of Atiku or obi like he did to Tinubu 2023, it will benefit the opposition more. Now, those votes will be wasted. No one gets it.

Akpakomiza2:
My dear,

I don't want to do d!ck measurement.
Makinde contesting for President reduces Obi & Atiku's votes increases Tinubu's own.

Let's move on.

fergie001:
I don't want to do d!ck measurement.
Makinde contesting for President reduces Obi & Atiku's votes increases Tinubu's own.

Let's move on.

It also reduces Tinubu's own sir but does no good to anyone eventually. Can Tinubu get 20% in abia