₦airaland Forum

Public Approval of President Tinubu Stands at 30.2%, EBDA Mid-Term Survey Finds

Nationwide poll shows worsening economic experience is the dominant driver of public sentiment

ABUJA, Nigeria, 29 May 2026 — Exactly three years after his inauguration, public approval of President Tinubu stands at 30.2%, according to a nationwide survey released today by Eagle Badger Data Analytics (EBDA). Some 47.5% of respondents disapprove, 18% are neutral, and 4.4% declined to answer. Compared with EBDA’s mid-year survey twelve months ago, approval has fallen seven points and disapproval has risen four. The survey’s central finding is that lived economic experience is the single strongest predictor of how Nigerians rate their president, outweighing every other factor measured.

Regional and Demographic Picture
Approval is uneven across the country. It is highest in the North East (39.2%) and stands at 37% in both the South West and North West, with the North Central at 30.3%. It is lowest in the South East (16.5%) and the South South (13.5%), where disapproval reaches 62.9% and 59.8% respectively. These southern readings are consistent with the previous wave, suggesting a settled rather than volatile pattern. The only demographic and regional group to record net positive approval is South West respondents aged 56 and above, at +18.7%. Among working-age Nigerians nationally, disapproval runs at 63.6%.

Economic Experience: The Dominant Variable
For the first time, EBDA asked whether respondents’ economic situation today is better or worse than it was three years ago. The responses were emphatic: 62% say they are worse off, against 23.3% who say they are better off. In the South East, 78.5% report deterioration; in the South South, 75.5%. Nationally, 42.4% say they are much worse off, more than five times the share who say they are much better off.

The cross-tabulation between economic experience and approval is stark. Among those who say their situation is much worse, 73.2% disapprove. Among those who say their situation is somewhat better, 70.7% approve. The relationship is near-linear across all five economic categories.

“A single approval number tells you the temperature. The zonal and economic cross-tabulations tell you where sentiment is concentrated, and what is shaping it. That second question is the one policymakers and government should care about. — Sharon Orisakwe, MD, EBDA”

Why the Recovery Is Not Yet Felt
Macro indicators have improved on most measures: headline inflation has fallen from a peak of 34.8% in December 2024 to 15.7% by April 2026; real GDP growth has risen above 4%; the naira has recovered from ₦1,740 to around ₦1,370 to the dollar. Yet the World Bank reports that the share of Nigerians living in poverty rose from 56% in 2023 to 63% in 2025, placing roughly 140 million citizens below the line. EBDA’s finding that 62% of respondents say they are worse off sits within one percentage point of that poverty estimate.

The explanation is the difference between a falling rate and a falling price. Disinflation means prices are rising more slowly, not that they are falling. Since May 2023, the general price level has risen roughly 80% and food prices by more than 90%. A bag of rice that cost ₦35,000 in mid-2023 still costs around ₦80,000 today. The minimum wage rose from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000 over the same period; petrol rose roughly sevenfold; the exchange rate roughly tripled. Macroeconomic stabilisation and household purchasing power have moved in opposite directions.

“The two indicators are not in conflict. They are measuring different things, and the distance between them is itself the policy problem government is yet to resolve. — Sharon Orisakwe”

Global Comparative Context
Incumbent approval has weakened across much of the world. US President Donald Trump stands at 36% approval; UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 23%; French President Emmanuel Macron at a record low of 18%. South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa stands at 38%. The sharpest contrast is Ghana, where President John Dramani Mahama records 67% approval across every region, following a 32% cedi appreciation against the dollar and a fall in inflation from 23.8% to 5.4% in 2025. The pattern is consistent: where macroeconomic gains have reached household prices and incomes directly, approval has followed. Where they have not, it has not.

Implications for Policy
The evidence points to a clear conclusion. Sentiment is unlikely to shift in response to improved macroeconomic data alone. It will respond to changes households can observe directly: stable or falling prices for staple goods, restored security in productive rural areas, and incomes that keep pace with the cost of living.

“The most important finding in this survey is not the approval figure. It is the strength of the link between economic experience and public sentiment. Until that experience improves at the household level, sentiment is unlikely to move, whatever the aggregate indicators show. — Sharon Orisakwe”

Methodology: Fieldwork was conducted by telephone in April 2026 using proportionate stratified random sampling across all six geopolitical zones, in respondents’ preferred languages. Margin of error ±3% at a 95% confidence level.

About EBDA: Eagle Badger Data Analytics is a Nigerian research and analytics firm specialising in public opinion measurement, economic sentiment tracking, and data-driven policy analysis.

https://businessday.ng/business-economy/article/tinubus-approval-rating-falls-to-30-as-economic-hardship-bites-harder-survey/

How can 30% approve Tinubu? How? Are they mentally ok?

You see the direction we are heading and you are like this is what I voted for? This is what I want for Nigeria?

My household and I, can never approve a total FAILURE, that doesn't know his left from right. Person way even him own State of origin reject am in 2023, who wan accept am? Only EYEneck, by RIGGING.

Before rolling out statistics, let there be a proper data collection. Even most of the paid online supporters and now majority of the APC politicians after the primaries are now against Tinubu. Oyo school children abduction and the failure of the Tinubu led federal government to show that they are concerned has equally reduced the popularity. To worsen it, they are threatening VDM for an AI generated video message, yet they can't use the same force to rescue the school children, who are still being tortured by the terrorists, even on the children's day.

That's enough to win the next election convincingly.

In my opinion, awarding up to 30% is outrageous.
Weting Tinubu do deserve 30%
I'm not saying this will make him lose the 2027 Presidential election. No.
Not even now that opposition has splitted to front 4 or so Presidential candidates.

But let's leave sentiments aside and tell ourselves the truth, President Tinubu is an abysmal failure in governing Nigeria for the past 3 years.

I'm still bewildered that he has beaten Bihari's failure quotient. It's astonishing.

mrvitalis:
How can 30% approve Tinubu? How? Are they mentally ok?

You see the direction we are heading and you are like this is what I voted for? This is what I want for Nigeria?

Not everyone is bittered like you.

You hate Tinubu cos of his tribe.

We will put you all to shame next year.

All he needs to get a second term is 10 percent
30 percent means landslide victory come next year.
Meanwhile, everyone should know that Tinubu will never be popular. His policies are based on though but necessary reforms. Nigerians are gluttons who wouldn't mind eating their children's future

Dreal1247:
Before rolling out statistics, let there be a proper data collection. Even most of the paid online supporters and now majority of the APC politicians after the primaries are now against Tinubu. Oyo school children abduction and the failure of the Tinubu led federal government to show that they are concerned has equally reduced the popularity. To worsen it, they are threatening VDM for an AI generated video message, yet they can't use the same force to rescue the school children, who are still being tortured by the terrorists, even on the children's day.

Stop shifting the goal post.

More than 30% of Nigerians are satisfied with Tinubu.

Thank you.

na inec conducted the survey


na 3%




Go to court

Sirjamo:
All he needs to get a second term is 10 percent
30 percent means landslide victory come next year.
Meanwhile, everyone should know that Tinubu will never be popular. His policies are based on though but necessary reforms. Nigerians are gluttons who wouldn't mind eating their children's future

Exactly.

He's winning that election most especially because of the divided opposition.

None of the individual opposition members can get a 30% rating nationally but can get more when combined.

He was able to get 30% ?

Despite all the available indices?

How did they get their data? Cam they please share the indices used?

Obaofaba:
That's enough to win the next election convincingly.

the number of touts and agberos still high in this country

But the fools are still standing on his shaking mandate of criminality

zenburster:
30% or 3%?

Who are those still approving of this man?

Iku kprai gbogbo yin

Imagine when my vote and that of others not included in the survey is added.

Tinubu should have at least 50% approval rating in the real sense.

That survey is rigged.

Hahahahhahahaha story!!!

Even in 3024 I remember Tinubu was given 13.1% by this same useless people at tthe end wetin happened Tinubu won and beat their obi to far 3rd. Go and check who are the people doing this shit statistics you will see 95% of them are followers of that onuku called obi with no registered entity so what do you expect?

We go choke uuna by 2027 una go dey ask how it take happen as we do in 2027.

Obaofaba:
Exactly.

He's winning that election most especially because of the divided opposition.

None of the individualnopposition members can get a 30% rating nationally but can get more when combined.

Of course
The oppositions make everything easy for him

Obaofaba:
Not everyone is bittered like you.

You hate Tinubu cos of his tribe.

We will put you all to shame next year.

keep quiet, everything is about Tribe, when someone criticizes it's because of tribe. In honesty is Tinubu performing? Even deep inside you know that Tinubu is a disaster but because he's from your tribe it's Ok, let him be there as long as Igbo doesn't. That's they twisted thinking that has brought Nigeria to this terrible level.. your see tribe before common sense.

Nationwide poll shows worsening economic experience is the dominant driver of public sentiment
I think they should add INSECURITY AND BLATANT CORRUPTION, INCOMPETENCE & CLUELESSNESS through all tiers of this government as the DOMINANT DRIVERS and that should being Tinubu’s approval rating to maybe 3% instead of the 30% in that publication

mrvitalis:
How can 30% approve Tinubu? How? Are they mentally ok?

You see the direction we are heading and you are like this is what I voted for? This is what I want for Nigeria?

Be rest assured that the organization will be summoned by DSS soon.

Noted.

30% is not too bad, considering the way things are presently in the country.

Obaofaba:
Not everyone is bittered like you.

You hate Tinubu cos of his tribe.

We will put you all to shame next year.

Which tribe. TUluMbU the Useless is the most incompetent president in the world. Something a pig is better than, is that one a human being

The truth is that it's below 10%. Even people from the South West don't like him. Thay call him names am not willing to mention.

If not for greed, wickedness and a system that is not working, he should be in Jail. Infact almost all the POLITICIANS in Nigeria should be in Jail and some facing a firing squad irrespective of their religion and ethnicity.


I cum in peace!!!

mrvitalis:
How can 30% approve Tinubu? How? Are they mentally ok?

You see the direction we are heading and you are like this is what I voted for? This is what I want for Nigeria?

Check very well the 30% might come from south west.

sirchim:
My household and I, can never approve a total FAILURE, that doesn't know his left from right. Person way even him own State of origin reject am in 2023, who wan accept am? Only EYEneck, by RIGGING.

My Household will vote for him massively. We can´t just wait.

mrvitalis:
How can 30% approve Tinubu? How? Are they mentally ok?

You see the direction we are heading and you are like this is what I voted for? This is what I want for Nigeria?

There's something very wrong with people like you. People have a right to choose their leaders in a democracy. Stop online bullying.
Nobody stops you from supporting your favorite but stops shoving him down other's throats and behaving like terorists when you see, read or hear other views.

I'm not a Tinubu person but When dat one start.

When did you start doing approval rating in Nigeria

From where you do am, AIT or NTA

Tinubu has failed, it's a disgrace we can't map out our territorial space and outflank terrorists, despite trillions spent on security. Tinubu and the political class have failed. A bunch of greedy myopic people. A nation where you see grown old men advocating for terrorists yet security agencies can't move on them. It's a disgrace.

Not bad at this point in time. He was elected with 37% of the votes. However, some dissatisfied supporters are frustrated with his indecision regarding crucial national security and economic policy issues.