₦airaland Forum

By : Adenike Ibirogba

Date: 11 June 2026 12:13pm WAT

There has been public commentary that has portrayed the current administration under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as Nigeria’s most aggressive borrower since the return to democracy in 1999, with some commentators saying it has borrowed more than all previous democratic administrations combined.

However, the available evidence does not support these conclusions. In May 2023, Nigeria’s external debt stock stood at approximately $42.5 billion when President Tinubu assumed office, and by December 2025, it had risen to approximately $51.9 billion, representing a net increase of around $9.4 billion. By contrast, Nigeria’s external debt increased from approximately $10.3 billion in 2015 to $42.9 billion by 2023, representing a net addition of about $32.6 billion during the Buhari administration.

This evidence, therefore, indicates that the largest increase in Nigeria’s external debt stock in the democratic era occurred between 2015 and 2023, and President Tinubu is not Nigeria’s largest borrower since the return to democratic rule in 1999.

Nigeria also faces a genuine fiscal challenge. Much of the apparent increase in Nigeria’s debt stock in naira terms reflects the exchange-rate revaluation of inherited foreign-currency obligations, rather than equivalent new borrowing.
It should also be noted that the most significant fiscal constraint facing Nigeria today is debt service, which absorbs a substantial proportion of government revenues. Rising debt-service obligations accumulated over many years continue to constrain fiscal space for infrastructure, healthcare, education, security, and other critical expenditures.

Nigerians should also bear in mind that external debt obligations are contracted and repaid in foreign currency, with the dollar being the denominant measurements used for comparison across administrations. Following exchange-rate unification in June 2023, the naira depreciated significantly against the US dollar. This had a substantial accounting effect on the domestic valuation of Nigeria’s external debt stock. The approximately $42.5 billion inherited by the current administration was valued at around ₦19.6 trillion under the previous exchange-rate regime. After revaluation at market exchange rates, the same stock appeared substantially larger in naira terms.

It can, however, be said that this claim of unprecedented borrowing under the current administration stems largely from the revaluation of inherited foreign-currency obligations following the June 2023 exchange-rate adjustment.

This increase did not arise because the government borrowed tens of trillions of naira in new external obligations. Rather, it shows the massive effect of applying a weaker exchange rate to an existing stock of foreign-currency debt. Comparing debt figures expressed in naira before and after exchange-rate adjustment, without controlling for these valuation effects, creates a misleading impression of debt accumulation.

The majority of the criticism surrounding Tinubu’s borrowing record has been focused on external debt, with the domestic figures adding important context. In dollar terms, domestic debt eased from about $65.6 billion in Q1 2023 (Buhari era) to $59.1 billion by end2025 (Tinubu era), a decline of roughly $6.5 billion. That sits against an increase of around $11.6 billion during the Buhari years. In adding domestic and external debt together, total public debt rose by only about $2.7 billion in dollar terms between Q1 2023 and Q4 2025, even though the naira headline rose by roughly ₦109.4 trillion over the same period. Both figures are correct, but only the dollar measure reflects actual new borrowing.

Between Q1 and Q2 2023, the naira value of external debt rose from ₦19.6 trillion (Buhari) to ₦33.2 trillion (Tinubu) with little change in dollar terms, reflecting exchange rate unification and revaluation of existing debt. In the same period, domestic debt increased from ₦30.2 trillion (Buhari) to ₦54.1 trillion (Tinubu), driven primarily by the securitisation and balance sheet recognition of ₦23.9 trillion in Ways and Means advances; previous Central Bank overdrafts accumulated under Buhari and subsequently converted into marketable government debt instruments. These movements represent accounting reclassification and stock revaluation adjustments, not incremental fiscal borrowing flows.

In conclusion, a fact-based assessment of Nigeria’s debt profile leads to one clear conclusion: the central challenge facing Nigeria today is not merely how much has been borrowed, but how inherited obligations, debt-service pressures, and limited revenues constrain the country’s development ambitions.

https://guardian.ng/news/who-borrowed-most-nigerias-presidential-debt-record-1999-2025/

We collect DEBTS in DOLLARS, repayment of the loans are in DOLLARS …….So calculations of how much is owed MUST be calculated in DOLLARS!!!!

They are just trying to be SMART by using Naira to calculate our debts.

Only ILLITERATES will fall for this.

Nonsensical comparison.
You are comparing Buhari's 8 years( 2015-2023)to Tinubu's 2.5 years (May 2023 - Dec. 2025).
Why don't you compare Buhari's first 2.5 years to Tinubu's 2.5 years, then we can talk.

How exactly is APC regime any better than PDP’s?

Cos they kept saying PDP years.

Just look at what “Progressives” have done to this country.

I remember Tinubu nicknamed PDP Poverty Development Party while he was in opposition.

Who is the real poverty developer now?

Sangoamadioha1:
Nonsensical comparison.
You are comparing Buhari's 8 years( 2015-2023)to Tinubu's 2.5 years (May 2023 - Dec. 2025).
Why don't you compare Buhari's first 2.5 years to Tinubu's 2.5 years, then we can talk.

You are not sensible

Tinubu the best Nigeria president

Noted.

Nigerians should also bear in mind that external debt obligations are contracted and repaid in foreign currency, with the dollar being the denominant measurements used for comparison across administrations. Following exchange-rate unification in June 2023, the naira depreciated significantly against the US dollar. This had a substantial accounting effect on the domestic valuation of Nigeria’s external debt stock. The approximately $42.5 billion inherited by the current administration was valued at around ₦19.6 trillion under the previous exchange-rate regime. After revaluation at market exchange rates, the same stock appeared substantially larger in naira terms.

mrmayormedia:
You are not sensible

Truth hurts all these APC e.ratssss

The writer is just being clever by half. You are comparing 3 years with 8 years . The right thing to do is to compare how much buhari borrowed in his first three years with what tinubu has borrowed so far

tiger28:
We collect DEBTS in DOLLARS, repayment of the loans are in DOLLARS …….So calculations of how much is owed MUST be calculated in DOLLARS!!!!

They are just trying to be SMART by using Naira to calculate our debts.

Only ILLITERATES will fall for this.

Did you bother to review the table at all abi na de urge to post de move you.

bigdammyj:
Noted.

Nigerians should also bear in mind that external debt obligations are contracted and repaid in foreign currency, with the dollar being the denominant measurements used for comparison across administrations. Following exchange-rate unification in June 2023, the naira depreciated significantly against the US dollar. This had a substantial accounting effect on the domestic valuation of Nigeria’s external debt stock. The approximately $42.5 billion inherited by the current administration was valued at around ₦19.6 trillion under the previous exchange-rate regime. After revaluation at market exchange rates, the same stock appeared substantially larger in naira terms.

The dollar terms are there too. Fact is APC had borrowed far m9re than PDP did.

We are no longer paying Subsidy, why are we still borrowing... ?

mrmayormedia:
You are not sensible

He's very sensible and that statistics is a fraudulent one. Why will you compare a less than one year term to two full year term. Is this what The Guardian newspaper has been reduced to? How do you people even sleep at night??!

We did not borrow in Naira but USD. Also was Naira 1380NGN to 1 USD during Buhari's tenure? As at May 2023, Naira was around 500NGN to 1USD which makes PMB's borrowing to be around NGN16trn as at May 2023 when he handed over to PBAT!

PMB borrowed and at least we had N-Power, a more stable Naira, a stable fuel price, greater gain in Agriculture, more visible projects, lesser tribalism, stronger international reputation. What has PBAT, the first class Accountant done with his own loan? PMB is better than this current disaster in nearly every indices!

Don't cite white elephant projects please, because Nigeria has never had it this bad!

Give the present one more time. He will be worse than all of them. The annoying thing is that other presidents borrowed that much when subsidy was on. Now this Government removed subsidy and is still borrowing this much. Where is the saved money from subsidy going to?

Borrowing to duplicate Lagos-Calabar with a 10 lane highway. Only God knows what touched his heart for him to reduce it to 6 lanes.

mrmayormedia:
You are not sensible

Then what's sensible to you when even something so elementary isn't.

Compare the 2.5yrs of the past presidents with ya Tinubu own ...

It's still simple when I think about it.

Sorry please, it's a double post.

tiger28:
We collect DEBTS in DOLLARS, repayment of the loans are in DOLLARS …….So calculations of how much is owed MUST be calculated in DOLLARS!!!!

They are just trying to be SMART by using Naira to calculate our debts.

Only ILLITERATES will fall for this.

When I first saw the headline on Nairaland I swear I knew it’s wayo

mrmayormedia:
You are not sensible

He is far more sensible than those that will vote for the APC...

mrmayormedia:
By : Adenike Ibirogba

Date: 11 June 2026 12:13pm WAT

There has been public commentary that has portrayed the current administration under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as Nigeria’s most aggressive borrower since the return to democracy in 1999, with some commentators saying it has borrowed more than all previous democratic administrations combined.

However, the available evidence does not support these conclusions. In May 2023, Nigeria’s external debt stock stood at approximately $42.5 billion when President Tinubu assumed office, and by December 2025, it had risen to approximately $51.9 billion, representing a net increase of around $9.4 billion. By contrast, Nigeria’s external debt increased from approximately $10.3 billion in 2015 to $42.9 billion by 2023, representing a net addition of about $32.6 billion during the Buhari administration.

This evidence, therefore, indicates that the largest increase in Nigeria’s external debt stock in the democratic era occurred between 2015 and 2023, and President Tinubu is not Nigeria’s largest borrower since the return to democratic rule in 1999.

Nigeria also faces a genuine fiscal challenge. Much of the apparent increase in Nigeria’s debt stock in naira terms reflects the exchange-rate revaluation of inherited foreign-currency obligations, rather than equivalent new borrowing.
It should also be noted that the most significant fiscal constraint facing Nigeria today is debt service, which absorbs a substantial proportion of government revenues. Rising debt-service obligations accumulated over many years continue to constrain fiscal space for infrastructure, healthcare, education, security, and other critical expenditures.

Nigerians should also bear in mind that external debt obligations are contracted and repaid in foreign currency, with the dollar being the denominant measurements used for comparison across administrations. Following exchange-rate unification in June 2023, the naira depreciated significantly against the US dollar. This had a substantial accounting effect on the domestic valuation of Nigeria’s external debt stock. The approximately $42.5 billion inherited by the current administration was valued at around ₦19.6 trillion under the previous exchange-rate regime. After revaluation at market exchange rates, the same stock appeared substantially larger in naira terms.

It can, however, be said that this claim of unprecedented borrowing under the current administration stems largely from the revaluation of inherited foreign-currency obligations following the June 2023 exchange-rate adjustment.

This increase did not arise because the government borrowed tens of trillions of naira in new external obligations. Rather, it shows the massive effect of applying a weaker exchange rate to an existing stock of foreign-currency debt. Comparing debt figures expressed in naira before and after exchange-rate adjustment, without controlling for these valuation effects, creates a misleading impression of debt accumulation.

The majority of the criticism surrounding Tinubu’s borrowing record has been focused on external debt, with the domestic figures adding important context. In dollar terms, domestic debt eased from about $65.6 billion in Q1 2023 (Buhari era) to $59.1 billion by end2025 (Tinubu era), a decline of roughly $6.5 billion. That sits against an increase of around $11.6 billion during the Buhari years. In adding domestic and external debt together, total public debt rose by only about $2.7 billion in dollar terms between Q1 2023 and Q4 2025, even though the naira headline rose by roughly ₦109.4 trillion over the same period. Both figures are correct, but only the dollar measure reflects actual new borrowing.

Between Q1 and Q2 2023, the naira value of external debt rose from ₦19.6 trillion (Buhari) to ₦33.2 trillion (Tinubu) with little change in dollar terms, reflecting exchange rate unification and revaluation of existing debt. In the same period, domestic debt increased from ₦30.2 trillion (Buhari) to ₦54.1 trillion (Tinubu), driven primarily by the securitisation and balance sheet recognition of ₦23.9 trillion in Ways and Means advances; previous Central Bank overdrafts accumulated under Buhari and subsequently converted into marketable government debt instruments. These movements represent accounting reclassification and stock revaluation adjustments, not incremental fiscal borrowing flows.

In conclusion, a fact-based assessment of Nigeria’s debt profile leads to one clear conclusion: the central challenge facing Nigeria today is not merely how much has been borrowed, but how inherited obligations, debt-service pressures, and limited revenues constrain the country’s development ambitions.

https://guardian.ng/news/who-borrowed-most-nigerias-presidential-debt-record-1999-2025/

Continue to rub Tinubu's back with your moderate assessment. Nigeria and Nigerians have never been this worse even under military rule.

mrmayormedia:
You are not sensible

And the write up you shared shows how sensible you are.
Take note, I am allergic to dull people mentioning me🫤

You made comparison of two different time frames:
Buhari 8 years, and without Dangote refinery helping to cut down refined Petroleum products import and adding forex to our economy.

Tinubu: 3 years only, subsidy gone, fuel import significantly reduced, forex injection into the economy through refined products sale by Dangote. Yet the borrowing is still high.

Who stole the most
Not who borrowed most

mrmayormedia:
You are not sensible

He is absolutely correct.
It is like doing fractions, the denominator must be common.

The projections of the rate at which this government is borrowing is projected to be devastating to the fiscal stability of this country.

Mark you it is self immolation due to highly bloated budgets aimed at giving out all manner of contracts to satisfy family, friends and whoever seeks to associate with the heist.

Naustine:
The writer is just being clever by half. You are comparing 3 years with 8 years . The right thing to do is to compare how much buhari borrowed in his first three years with what tinubu has borrowed so far

You dey mind am

Eni to to shiere

Wow
These people have sold this country out!

erniok:
The dollar terms are there too. Fact is APC had borrowed far m9re than PDP did.

Is that the change that Oshiomhole’s Assembly of Past Criminals, APC promised us when Tinubu went to Kaduna and begged Buhari to make Jonathan a one term president in 2015, so he could have his own turn eight years later

Simple graphic illustration of what’s happening without bias?

I can’t say anything good about tinubu s APC


If u know anything good tell us

Look at the combined amount APC has borrowed since 2015.

APC has destroyed Nigeria and continues to destroy Nigeria.