₦airaland Forum

I'm sure a lot of heads are doing a double take at the captioning of my post. I believe though that we can freely support whoever we want while being objective in our analysis.

Yes, I support Obi and proudly so. At the same time, that hasn't blinded me from seeing and acknowledging positive steps the Tinubu government has undertaken. Let me get to the point.

The truth is a burden and can be uncomfortable to read or hear. But that inconvenience doesn't stop it being the truth. Was Tinubu right about subsidy removal? Could he have gone about it in a different, less hurtful way? I'll answer that shortly.

Nigeria would have collapsed if Tinubu hadn't stopped subsidy payments when he did. Every president before him, had toyed with the idea or even attempted some measure of subsidy removal. Subsidy payments was the elephant in the room of every economic policy meeting the NEC was having. But it was the holy grail few dared actually face head-on.

At a point, Nigeria's subsidy payments were exceeding its earnings. Nigeria was borrowing not for development but to offset subsidy claims. Claims that for the most part, were unverifiable. The country was shouldering fuel costs of a good number of neighbouring African countries. There was no way that was sustainable short or long term.

The argument can be made that Nigeria's present economic crisis can actually be tied to years of subsidy payments. The country was living on debt and borrowing from the future. That future is today and the cheque has come due. Nigeria borrowed so much for subsidy payments that these debt obligations and servicing costs still take huge chunks of our earnings. It doesn't help also, that future crude production was the collateral used to secure these loans. We must also take notice that a healthy portion of Nigeria's debt profile is debt incurred by the various states but that's a topic for another day.

If Tinubu hadn't stopped subsidy payments, Nigeria would have probably experienced a similar situation Greece and Argentina faced a few years back. But we aren't entirely out of the woods yet I must say.

Some have argued that Tinubu was wrong for channeling the freed funds accruing from subsidy payments to state governments. On the face of it, that appears to be a legit argument but here's a key overlooked detail. Every money that hits the federation account must be disbursed according to the distribution formula set by the Revenue Mobilisation and Fiscal Allocation Committee (RMFAC). There is an enabling law backing this and the president would be remiss act otherwise.

In simple terms, no. Tinubu on his own cannot decide how the money canceling subsidy payments has brought, gets shared.

That said, he does his government no good by not putting pressure on the senate to investigate the NNPC and get to the root of how 210 trillion naira cannot be accounted for. Money doesn't just fly. Accountants know that every money has a trace and a trail. In who's interest is the Nigerian senate refusing to investigate this matter.

The country cannot be embarking on a borrowing galore when its chief earner, the NNPC, cannot account for over 30 billion dollars.

I welcome nuanced, well reasoned and fact based arguements. Thank you for reading.

What about the truth from Tinubu supporters all over Nigeria causing the day Tinubu became president

Dogalmighty17:
I'm sure a lot of heads are doing a double take at the captioning of my post. I believe though that we can freely support whoever we want while being objective in our analysis.

Yes, I support Obi and proudly so. At the same time, that hasn't blinded me from seeing and acknowledging positive steps the Tinubu government has undertaken. Let me get to the point.

The truth is a burden and can be uncomfortable to read or hear. But that inconvenience doesn't stop it being the truth. Was Tinubu right about subsidy removal? Could he have gone about it in a different, less hurtful way? I'll answer that shortly.

Nigeria would have collapsed if Tinubu hadn't stopped subsidy payments when he did. Every president before him, had toyed with the idea or even attempted some measure of subsidy removal. Subsidy payments was the elephant in the room of every economic policy meeting the NEC was having. But it was the holy grail few dared actually face head-on.

At a point, Nigeria's subsidy payments were exceeding its earnings. Nigeria was borrowing not for development but to offset subsidy claims. Claims that for the most part, were unverifiable. The country was shouldering fuel costs of a good number of neighbouring African countries. There was no way that was sustainable short or long term.

The argument can be made that Nigeria's present economic crisis can actually be tied to years of subsidy payments. The country was living on debt and borrowing from the future. That future is today and the cheque has come due. Nigeria borrowed so much for subsidy payments that these debt obligations and servicing costs still take huge chunks of our earnings. It doesn't help also, that future crude production was the collateral used to secure these loans. We must also take notice that a healthy portion of Nigeria's debt profile is debt incurred by the various states but that's a topic for another day.

If Tinubu hadn't stopped subsidy payments, Nigeria would have probably experienced a similar situation Greece and Argentina faced a few years back. But we aren't entirely out of the woods yet I must say.

Some have argued that Tinubu was wrong for channeling the freed funds accruing from subsidy payments to state governments. On the face of it, that appears to be a legit argument but here's a key overlooked detail. Every money that hits the federation account must be disbursed according to the distribution formula set by the Revenue Mobilisation and Fiscal Allocation Committee (RMFAC). There is an enabling law backing this and the president would be remiss act otherwise.

In simple terms, no. Tinubu on his own cannot decide how the money canceling subsidy payments has brought, gets shared.

That said, he does his government no good by not putting pressure on the senate to investigate the NNPC and get to the root of how 210 trillion naira cannot be accounted for. Money doesn't just fly. Accountants know that every money has a trace and a trail. In who's interest is the Nigerian senate refusing to investigate this matter.

The country cannot be embarking on a borrowing galore when its chief earner, the NNPC, cannot account for over 30 billion dollars.

I welcome nuanced, well reasoned and fact based arguements. Thank you for reading.

Who ever stated 210 trillion naira was missing should at least provide proof, means and how it was missing. This is a familiar style of simply dishing out figures of missing fund like associated criminals in the national assembly with no clear cut proof. That is over 4 years worth of national budget in whose hands? which local and foreign accounts are these funds shipped?
I am not carried away by many of the semi illiterates in the national assembly who are also criminals masquerading to be working hard.

how much barrels of oil did Nigeria produce yearly? In the last 10 years, Nigeria total crude oil production is less than 5 thrillion barrels, it takes someone living in fool paradise to declare missing 210 trillion naira.

OP subsidy removal was not an accomplishment by itself, it was an action taken by a government that didn’t have the balls to fight corruption in the petroleum sector to save itself from collapse.

Tinubu went about it in the worst possible way. He failed catastrophically on its implementation. You don’t just plunge people into financial losses just because you don’t have the balls to fight corruption. It was very convenient for him but not for Nigerians. The sudden transition was a nightmare. No cushions, no support, no serious plans in place to invest that money right back into the economy. Politicians only got richer.

He failed terribly. This shouldn’t be mentioned anywhere near his achievements.

givedemwotowoto:
OP subsidy removal was not an accomplishment by itself, it was an action taken by a government that didn’t have the balls to fight corruption in the petroleum sector to save itself from collapse.

Tinubu went about it in the worst possible way. He failed catastrophically on its implementation. You don’t just plunge people into financial losses just because you don’t have the balls to fight corruption. It was very convenient for him but not for Nigerians. The sudden transition was a nightmare. No cushions, no support, no serious plans in place to invest that money right back into the economy. Politicians only got richer.

He failed terribly. This shouldn’t be mentioned anywhere near his achievements.

You need to consider that if he hadn't removed the subsidy in its entirety when he did, he would not have been able to subsequently and turn of events like the current US invasion of Iran would have even pushed those subsidy costs up more.

I strongly believe that the pain of subsidy removal is far preferable than the outright economic collapse that continued subsidy payments would have caused. At least with removal of subsidy, the country gets to see another day. There is no way the energy consumption of a nation of 260 million people will be sustainable.

Dogalmighty17:
You need to consider that if he hadn't removed the subsidy in its entirety when he did, he would not have been able to subsequently and turn of events like the current US invasion of Iran would have even pushed those subsidy costs up more.

I strongly believe that the pain of subsidy removal is far preferable than the outright economic collapse that continued subsidy payments would have caused. At least with removal of subsidy, the country gets to see another day. There is no way the energy consumption of a nation of 260 million people will be sustainable.

The biggest waste in Nigeria today and years prior has been corruption, not subsidy payments.

Consider the N210 trillion reportedly missing from NNPC alone between 2017 and 2023. That’s far more than all the combined petrol subsidy payments the various governments have paid between 1999 and 2023, estimated at N20 trillion.

So if you were Tinubu, which one will you go after first? The NNPC corruption, or subsidy payment removal?

Since he chose to remove subsidy rather than fight corruption, and it ended up hurting Nigerians the way it has, only for politicians to continue embezzling the funds and living large while Nigerians suffer extreme hardship, then he deserves all the curses and anger of the populace who elected him to represent them.

He failed woefully on subsidy removal.

givedemwotowoto:
The biggest waste in Nigeria today and years prior has been corruption, not subsidy payments.

Consider the N210 trillion reportedly missing from NNPC alone between 2017 and 2023. That’s far more than all the combined petrol subsidy payments the various governments have paid between 1999 and 2023, estimated at N20 trillion.

So if you were Tinubu, which one will you go after first? The NNPC corruption, or subsidy payment removal?

Since he chose to remove subsidy rather than fight corruption, and it ended up hurting Nigerians the way it has, only for politicians to continue embezzling the funds and living large while Nigerians suffer extreme hardship, then he deserves all the curses and anger of the populace who elected him to represent them.

He failed woefully on subsidy removal.

You are just being emotional.

Basic123:
You are just being emotional.

Do better than a lazy comment. Show your depth