₦airaland Forum

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will win the Southwest decisively
Many of those who fell for the LP propaganda in 2023 have now seen the light

Did you read the report? NDC currently leads APC by 44% to 25%. The remaining 23% are undecided, meaning they lean on either side.
However, nationality, NDC is OK.

Southwest has always been.
Specifically southwest and NorthCentral.

Thet are two zones that do 50:50 kind of voting and unpredicatble.

Southwest swing from GEJ in 2011 and to buhari in 2015 to give buhari victory

fergie001:
https://nairametrics.com/2026/06/15/southwest-likely-to-decide-winner-of-2027-presidential-election-report/

Validated:
Did you read the report?

Read, abi? Smh.

Social media content party's sponsored post.

TheStoriesOfMan:
Spread ke? You mean spread of eby pwawa?

Hehehehehehehehehehehe

What you wrote there is what the northern political leaders have used for years to'win'

That's why they are able to boast of numbers in election. They rely on begging to vote, they enslave their people in favour of numbers

We must not forget our history and how feudalism reigns in the north. It's changing now especially after Buhari's spectacular failure but does it work? Yes

Let's see if the south doesn't get conquered with this kind of politics

Believe this polls at your own risk. Tinubu will win with a landslide

SixSeven:
What you wrote there is what the northern political leaders have used for years to'win'

The thing is this: you write beautiful, captivating think pieces, but don't you think the electorates have made up their mind to collect gala, malt, rice, ewa, plates, facecaps and other mgbatibati from politicians, and still vote APC?

Scope Lamba don start...voters for southwest go quadruple under four years Abi...?? Make Una dey fear God..!

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will win the Southwest decisively

Many of those who fell for the LP propaganda in 2023 have now seen the light

Seen which light actually

From the year of 2014, the country called Nigeria has been suffering in peanury, shall we fold our hand and allow it to continue??

We moved from darkness of hoarding of fuel , scarcity of fuel to light of excess file but little people to buy because the price is not encouraging...from #210 - #1350

We moved from a dollar that was #180 to now #1500

Insecurity during Jonathan Government was concentrated , atleast we know it was only happening in the North where they were able to deceive the masses ....but as of today everywhere is burning into light...

Yes, we are seeing fire 🔥🔥 which may be the light you mentioned anyway....

You people should go and hide in shame but as a data boy, you must remain loyal ...

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will win the Southwest decisively

Many of those who fell for the LP propaganda in 2023 have now seen the light

Seen which light actually

From the year of 2014, the country called Nigeria has been suffering in peanury, shall we fold our hand and allow it to continue??

We moved from darkness of hoarding of fuel , scarcity of fuel to light of excess file but little people to buy because the price is not encouraging...from #210 - #1350

We moved from a dollar that was #180 to now #1500

Insecurity during Jonathan Government was concentrated , atleast we know it was only happening in the North where they were able to deceive the masses ....but as of today everywhere is burning into light...

Yes, we are seeing fire 🔥🔥 which may be the light you mentioned anyway....

You people should go and hide in shame but as a data boy, you must remain focused ... 😆

TheStoriesOfMan:
The thing is this: you write beautiful, captivating think pieces, but don't you think the electorates have made up their mind to collect gala, malt, rice, ewa, plates, facecaps and other mgbatibati from politicians, and still vote APC?

This is the playbook of the lord and slaves. I have to be careful of labelling it a northern problem, it is a Nigerian problem.

Money politics is a big problem for us in Nigeria so when the people are hungry, do they have enough sense despite knowing the food will not be enough for 4 years?

For every reform we have in our electoral process, the politicians find a way to manipulate it, that's our big problem. If no one offers food, we will see the true result but how many politicians are bold enough to say vote me without any mobilization fees?

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will win the Southwest decisively

Many of those who fell for the LP propaganda in 2023 have now seen the light

Three years into his ill-fated administration, the South-West where the mandate grabber hails from has the highest rate of voter apathy and undecided voters.

Think about it when you're less busy.

raumdeuter:
So who will win those states? Majority of voters dont even know what NDC is. They might think its a subsidiary of NTA or NNPC

Why did your mind instantly run to NDC @ the bolded?

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will win the Southwest decisively

Many of those who fell for the LP propaganda in 2023 have now seen the light

They have now seen the dark you mean

But these same people will attack this region for bigotry and being tribal. Is this not confusion? Just write report, start dey happy until reality happens.

H

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will win the Southwest decisively

Many of those who fell for the LP propaganda in 2023 have now seen the light

Seen light in the massive insecurity threatening everyone, massive poverty that has become the second name of Nigeria, admix record borrowing level never seen before in the history of this country and massive division of the people. Yes, we have seen the light.

Validated:
Did you read the report? NDC currently leads APC by 44% to 25%. The remaining 23% are undecided, meaning they lean on either side.
However, nationality, NDC is OK.

Una no dey ever learn? You've started this your online wins again. You think Nigerian elections is online game?

SixSeven:
This is the playbook of the lord and slaves. I have to be careful of labelling it a northern problem, it is a Nigerian problem.

Money politics is a big problem for us in Nigeria so when the people are hungry, do they have enough sense despite knowing the food will not be enough for 4 years?

For every reform we have in our electoral process, the politicians find a way to manipulate it, that's our big problem. If no one offers food, we will see the true result but how many politicians are bold enough to say vote me without any mobilization fees?

The only politician I see doing that is Obi aka "we no dey give Shishi".

Hold on, but money plays a particular role in mobilization and sensitization.

Do you mean to say that this can either blur the grey area between genuinely getting the grassroots to play their part in politics or exploring such activities for selfish gains?

Atiku Abubakar is your next President.

Depending on “ Amala Politics “?🍷

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will win the Southwest decisively

Many of those who fell for the LP propaganda in 2023 have now seen the light

DayoKanu, Seen which light?. It's like the light in south west is very different. Light of hunger, kidnappings and killings.

iwaeda:
Atiku Abubakar is your next President.

This is visible to the blind!

My dear Lagosorigin
You don't need to Argues with anybody 2027 General Election will be the worst poor outing result for Opposition Presidential Candidates in the history of Nigeria. Go and mark my word.
When Tinubu was outside the Fence he narrowly won the Election, now inside the fence, now that he is in the corridor of power. Let wait and see.
As South East is no going Area for Tinubu same thing as well for Opposition that Aouth West is no going Area for Opposition, they what happened in 2023, will repeat again, where we were gullible deceived on religious sentiments nothing else.

Thanks my brother

raumdeuter:
Tinubu will win the Southwest decisively

Many of those who fell for the LP propaganda in 2023 have now seen the light

The bandits light or hunger light?

SixSeven:
South West did not determine Obasanjo's win neither did it determine Buhari's losses for years. Tinubu lost both Osun and Lagos, the two places he claims to come from.

It did. In 2003. And also in 2011 for Jonathan.

SixSeven:
The popular case study is Rivers.

Is this a joke? Using the only state with blatant rigging as the entire case study? Talk about strawmanning. Rivers was the only state where the vote count and iREV figures differed. The remaining states tallied.

TheStoriesOfMan:
The only politician I see doing that is Obi aka "we no dey give Shishi".

Hold on, but money plays a particular role in mobilization and sensitization.

Do you mean to say that this can either blur the grey area between genuinely getting the grassroots to play their part in politics or exploring such activities for selfish gains?

But they insult him with this too? Don't you see how they say they will teach him politics? They laugh at him for not having enough polling unit agents and I have outlined the electoral process in a past post. We do not need agents if not that we want to spend money and 'guard' the votes. The voting machine and iRev where meant to make polling agents redundant

SixSeven:
Repost 👇

Thank you for this thread. Let me repost this
There has been so much confusion over the reportage of this issue and I am so disappointed in the media. It is not electronic voting, it is ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION of results. They have tried to use this confusion to mislead people with e-voting. Is it this NASS that did not allow diaspora to vote that wants to give electronic voting They should start with electronic voting at the Senate first instead of relying on voice vote but these guys we have there now can't. They can never because you can't give what you don't have. Honor is not sold in the market neither is you calling yourself distinguished distinguish you from any cowardly behaviour.

The media is doing a bad work in not reporting the issues properly. I have seen people like Reno mislead the public about the issue. The SP too has said some things when he talks down Nigerians the usual way. Nigerians do not vote electronically, the people are saying cut the amount of manual intervention you have in collation.

The election process is like this:
1. You register to vote.
2. You get your PVC
3. Before election day, you see your name Ong the list of registered voters
4. On election day, you register to vote (this is called accreditation) where the PO confirms that you are on the list of registered voters and it is not someone else
5. You cast your ballot secretly.
6. The PO counts the votes, that IS, ALL the paper you voted for, then writes the results.
This is where Nigerians want the results to be electronically transmitted.
7. This result is announced and a copy normally should be posted for you at your PU
8. The PO takes the counted result that was signed by the party agents and herself to the collation centre

This is where Nigerians saw the magomago. This is why you see the APC guys boast of polling agents. We should be ashamed of ourselves that we need too many people to count votes in 2026. Let me not distract from my essay. Check the quoted post I have below.

There are two collation centres. There's ward collation centre and state collation centre. It is at these places counting magic happens. You see all those things the Professors do on TV? They are only counting LG results for each state. They are also checking if there were any other electoral issues that can lead to some results not counted or cancelled.

What INEC promised at the last election is that with Irev you can see your PU result live. You can even audit the election result for each ward and do your own counting for the LG. But the APC and their abracadabra manipulated your result. So while you were counting after step 5, they saw the live results, did their own counting and gave you the figures they wanted. That's why INEC announced results of the election at night. That's where you saw numbers changed at Irev portal. If party A had 12, they put 6 in front of it and made it 612. That is why the Irev portal had glitch. The glitch was the fraudulent excuse to tamper with the result, change it and have their own numbers. They had to delay the loading to iRev portal so you won't be able to dispute the results. Only a thief at night steals it, snatches it and runs away with it to announce that the white they stole at nibjt is now Ariel clean in the morning.

With electronic transmission, Nigeria will reduce massively how much money we spend on elections. Our elections are only expensive because people simply want to cheat, QED! It's a bloody waste of time recruiting so many people just to count numbers, shey we no de shame? Chai


For those of them that bring that useless video of Elon Musk not trusting electronic voting, please read below. They intentionally omitted the part where US does not conduct its election like ours. They work on trust because from birth you already have an ID and government knows when you turn 18.

It's not as if Obi is special but if he wins, one thing he will help our democracy to do is redefine the process of elections. In fact, one thing he did successfully, or maybe two he did was

1. You don't need a sitting governor to win.
Buhari always won some states despite the FG might and governors there. Obi is that kind of person in recent times to have that cult following. Another person like that is Kwankwaso and they have both proved it. Even if it's one state they are popular in, it means a lot.

2. You don't need a political party to win.
This is almost pushing the independent candidacy to our elections.

SixSeven:
Aside Obi and Kwankwanso, no other politician has been able to prove themselves ALONE outside the establishment.

Repost👇

Obi has the brightest chance going by the last election result followed by Kwankwanso. I choose these two because they left PDP and did not have the structure of the regular party, which Atiku benefitted from using the PDP platform. You also have to look at the time they had to test themselves between the election primaries and election.

If you want to know what that means, Ribadu ran the Presidential election in 2011 under AC and failed with that party structure. Obi and Kwankwanso have been able to test their popularity as candidates outside the regular establishments and done well. Both had no Governors in their party before contesting and pulled a good number in the last election. Buhari used his CPC to bargain with AC to get the Presidential slot in APC. Buhari could say whether he used ANPP or CPC, he could gather votes. I'm not so sure Atiku can do that. He was a presidential candidate of the Action Congress in the 2007 presidential election coming in third to Umaru Yar'Adua of the PDP and Muhammadu Buhari of the ANPP. Atiku came a distant third in that election with less than 10% of the votes.

It's the gut to do without the so-called structure that makes the politicians afraid because they have somehow forgotten how to test their popularity with the people and they have to rely on parties, godfathers and financiers which is dangerous for our democracy because they will have no choice but repay the godfathers when they get there. We have seen this before.

Let me read your question again.

Hold on, but money plays a particular role in mobilization and sensitization.

Do you mean to say that this can either blur the grey area between genuinely getting the grassroots to play their part in politics or exploring such activities for selfish gains?
It plays a role but is it bribery! No. This is where Obi has advantage. The big parties literally pay people on social media to fight for them. Again, this is why they don't like Obi. What costs them money, he gets it almost free and they are mad at him because they think he is using jazz on the youth. Obi is just lucky that the youth see him as someone they can hold out of these people to represent them. It's not going to last forever but for them they don't care about the party, they just believe in him. Why? He talks to the issues they want to hear, he doesn't talk down at them. They feel a part of him in his campaign. The other parties have their parents who never want to retire sharing money and positions and calling it structure but it is not, it is business. The cost of social media mobilization and sensitisation is cheaper than the other type. Do you hear them say "elections are not on social media", "they don't know politics" etc. It's all lies. Why?they force people to vote for them by taking their PVCs, threatening them, bribing them etc to make sure they get numbers on election day. Those youth online eventually come out in person at the right time. They know when to come out and when to stay online.

The internet has also made them think about it and see us for who we are. They have the power of change too because in any democratic society, most youth always want to feel they made an impact. APC also gained from youth vote in 2015 when Buhari won. If the people choose you, you don't need to waste money to mobilize them. They will do it themselves. Why? Because their lives are at stake and the decisions you make in your 4 years will affect them so let's see how it goes. I hope this cycle helps us end this money politics to an extent because the guts of these people now in power are getting to a ridiculous height where they can do without us and very soon we'll be like Uganda and Cameroon.

AMINDA:
As I have always maintained, the Southwest remains the most dynamic region in terms of voting pattern, only next to the Northcentral. Unfortunately for Tinubu, that is his only base. Votes will be split here, and even if Tinubu ends up with the highest votes cast here, it won't amount to much.

Where will Atiku get his votes since north east will be divided

Bluna:
I can only talk about where I reside.
Based on popular opinion so far, APC will struggle in Ondo, but NDC is not popular here.

One thing I've observed is that Southwest will likely experience low turnout in 2027. Many people that voted in 2023 have already lost interest in this next election.

The reason Tinubu will likely be reelected is not because he is popular, but because Atiku and Obi won't contest together on a joint ticket. This would've been the only combo to unseat Tinubu and secure victory for the opposition.

Exactly. Tinubu highest winning margin will come from Ondo. SW turnout is usually 3.5 mil since 2015

Svoboda:
Going by this projection, Tinubu is one foot away from losing his re-election. Even if all the 23% undecided were to go for him, it won't materialize to much. This is the region he is expected to win handsomely, considering his general unpopularity and lack of genuine organic support.

Going by that poll, we can agree that obi will win north west, divide north east and win the presidency?