₦airaland Forum

For months, Nigeria's social media warriors, assisted by professional prophets of doom and election astrologers, have confidently informed us that APC is dead in the North.

Dele Momodu and the usual online commentators assured us that the North had moved on and that 2027 was already settled.

Then the voters of Dawakin Kudu/Warawa Federal Constituency in Kano showed up.

And they voted.

The result?

APC's Shuaibu Rabiu secured over 35,000 votes. The nearest challenger barely crossed a few hundred votes.

Apparently, the obituary writers forgot to inform the electorate that APC had already died.

This is the difference between politics and social media.

Social media rewards noise.

Democracy rewards organisation.

For all the endless declarations that "Nigerians have rejected APC," one simple question remains:

Rejected by whom?

By YouTube channels?

By Twitter spaces?

By professional outrage merchants?

Because elections have a cruel habit of exposing fantasies.

The same people who spent months predicting APC's funeral are now preparing the usual excuses.

"Incumbency."

"Bread."

"Vote buying."

"State power."

Anything but the possibility that voters may have made a choice they dislike.

Perhaps the opposition should spend less time manufacturing narratives and more time manufacturing votes.

Because anti-Tinubu sentiment is not a manifesto.

Hashtags are not structures.

And outrage is not organisation.

As for the social media warriors, one can only sympathise.

Once again, reality has rudely interrupted prophecy.

And once again, the ballot box has proved itself a far harsher examiner than Twitter.

Votes speak.

Echo chambers merely echo.

I'm laughing at you bro with your thinking

CharlesCNG:
For months, Nigeria's social media warriors, assisted by professional prophets of doom and election astrologers, have confidently informed us that APC is dead in the North.

Dele Momodu and the usual online commentators assured us that the North had moved on and that 2027 was already settled.

Then the voters of Dawakin Kudu/Warawa Federal Constituency in Kano showed up.

And they voted.

The result?

APC's Shuaibu Rabiu secured over 35,000 votes. The nearest challenger barely crossed a few hundred votes.

Apparently, the obituary writers forgot to inform the electorate that APC had already died.

This is the difference between politics and social media.

Social media rewards noise.

Democracy rewards organisation.

For all the endless declarations that "Nigerians have rejected APC," one simple question remains:

Rejected by whom?

By YouTube channels?

By Twitter spaces?

By professional outrage merchants?

Because elections have a cruel habit of exposing fantasies.

The same people who spent months predicting APC's funeral are now preparing the usual excuses.

"Incumbency."

"Bread."

"Vote buying."

"State power."

Anything but the possibility that voters may have made a choice they dislike.

Perhaps the opposition should spend less time manufacturing narratives and more time manufacturing votes.

Because anti-Tinubu sentiment is not a manifesto.

Hashtags are not structures.

And outrage is not organisation.

As for the social media warriors, one can only sympathise.

Once again, reality has rudely interrupted prophecy.

And once again, the ballot box has proved itself a far harsher examiner than Twitter.

Votes speak.

Echo chambers merely echo.

NDC didn't participate in the elections , so stop deceiving yourself

madridguy:
I'm laughing at you bro with your thinking

Your fellow data boy is a joke to you?

The kind of flogging PORK will get in the NW, NE, NC, SW and SS no be here

Giringori will fade permanently away after the next elections and his mob will go back to their "Biafra or death" project.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
NDC didn't participate in the elections , so stop deceiving yourself

So why didn't they participated? We know that the people that will vote NDC in Kano are only the Igbo traders and their numbers are as shown in Obi last 2023 results in the entire Kano. This time, it will be lesser because Kwankwaso will shock them before election day.

phemray:
So why didn't they participated? We know that the people that will vote NDC in Kano are only the Igbo traders and their numbers are as shown in Obi last 2023 results in the entire Kano. This time, it will be lesser because Kwankwaso will shock them before election day.

So Kano people will leave their son Kwankwanso on the ballot and vote for tinubu?

People don't really know how to argue elections in Nigeria. For over 12 years, APC has produced 2 Presidents, over 20 Governors, over 70 Senators, and more than 200 Representatives, House of Assembly, and Councillors.

About 55 per cent of this value came from the North. This means APC has a strong presence in the North and you are not going to change that in just 2 or 4 years.

A lot of you will see APC votes from the North in 2027 and begin to shed online tears. Party politics is more than social media grandstanding.

After losing in 2027, if the opposition goes to sleep, then don't cry when APC sweeps everything in 2031 again.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
So Kano people will leave their son Kwankwanso on the ballot and vote for tinubu?

I can see u don't understand voting pattern in politics, go and check, Tinubu helped Kwankwaso in the past in Many ways and they are both governors at same point. Kwankwaso is looking for 2031 strategy and he knows NDC is just by the way to stay in public relevance.

phemray:
I can see u don't understand voting pattern in politics, go and check, Tinubu helped Kwankwaso in the past in Many ways and they are both governors at same point. Kwankwaso is looking for 2031 strategy and he knows NDC is just by the way to stay in public relevance.

Story Story,everybody is working for tinubu according to data boys

The mistake you guys make in your political analysis is that you forgot that Nigerians now vote for personality than party.


If the people are more closer to the man contesting under APC, of course they will vote him irrespective of the party he is running under.


Again, most Nigerians have come to realize that the most important election and position in Nigeria that decide the future of Nigeria is the Presidential election, so many young people who make up majority of the voting population don't care about Senatorial/Reps, etc election, their interest is the Presidential election.


Another point to note is this; in Nigerian election, off-season elections are usually won by the ruling party all over Nigeria because there is usually high level of voter apathy and most voters that turn up are usually party members and staunch party followers which favor the ruling party more.


This is different from general election. Many Nigerians don't even know there is an election going on in their state, everyone is waiting for 2027.



You guys ought to know all these facts before now.

franchasng:
The mistake you guys make in your political analysis is that you forgot that Nigerians now vote for personality than party.


If the people are more closer to the man contesting under APC, of course they will vote him irrespective of the party he is running under.


Again, most Nigerians have come to realize that the most important election and position in Nigeria that decide the future of Nigeria is the Presidential election, so many young people who make up majority of the voting population don't care about Senatorial/Reps, etc election, their interest is the Presidential election.


Another point to note is this; in Nigerian election, off-season elections are usually won by the ruling party all over Nigeria because there is usually high level of voter apathy and most voters that turn up are usually party members and staunch party followers which favor the ruling party more.


This is different from general election. Many Nigerians don't even know there is an election going on in their state, everyone is waiting for 2027.



You guys ought to know all these facts before now.

Are you saying sane people are voting APC because of some individual personalities excuse?

You dey mind Obedients and online AMINDA s?

CharlesCNG:
For months, Nigeria's social media warriors, assisted by professional prophets of doom and election astrologers, have confidently informed us that APC is dead in the North.

Dele Momodu and the usual online commentators assured us that the North had moved on and that 2027 was already settled.

Then the voters of Dawakin Kudu/Warawa Federal Constituency in Kano showed up.

And they voted.

The result?

APC's Shuaibu Rabiu secured over 35,000 votes. The nearest challenger barely crossed a few hundred votes.

Apparently, the obituary writers forgot to inform the electorate that APC had already died.

This is the difference between politics and social media.

Social media rewards noise.

Democracy rewards organisation.

For all the endless declarations that "Nigerians have rejected APC," one simple question remains:

Rejected by whom?

By YouTube channels?

By Twitter spaces?

By professional outrage merchants?

Because elections have a cruel habit of exposing fantasies.

The same people who spent months predicting APC's funeral are now preparing the usual excuses.

"Incumbency."

"Bread."

"Vote buying."

"State power."

Anything but the possibility that voters may have made a choice they dislike.

Perhaps the opposition should spend less time manufacturing narratives and more time manufacturing votes.

Because anti-Tinubu sentiment is not a manifesto.

Hashtags are not structures.

And outrage is not organisation.

As for the social media warriors, one can only sympathise.

Once again, reality has rudely interrupted prophecy.

And once again, the ballot box has proved itself a far harsher examiner than Twitter.

Votes speak.

Echo chambers merely echo.

We didn't notice that Tinubu was on the ballot yesterday. You lot erroneously believe that Tinubu owns the APC, he doesn't. Atiku won more APC states than PDP states in 2023 and that's instructive considering the fact that 4 Southern PDP governors worked against him and invariably against their party. When Tinubi is voted out in 2027, the real owners of the APC will reclaim their party. Afterall, where was Tinubu and his current lackeys barely 3 years ago? The PDP continued to win elective positions long after Jonathan was voted out of power.

AMINDA:
We didn't notice that Tinubu was on the ballot yesterday. You lot erroneously believe that Tinubu owns the APC, he doesn't. Atiku won more APC states than PDP states in 2023 and that's instructive considering the fact that 4 Southern PDP governors worked against him and invariably against their party. When Tinubi is voted out in 2027, the real owners of the APC will reclaim their party. Afterall, where was Tinubu and his current lackeys barely 3 years ago? The PDP continued to win elective positions long after Jonathan was voted out of power.

The comparison between APC in 2023 and APC today is apples and oranges.

In 2023, Tinubu was APC’s candidate, but he was not in full control of the federal machinery. In fact, one can reasonably argue that powerful elements within the sitting presidency were not enthusiastic about him.

That is precisely why 2027 is different.

Today, Tinubu is not merely the APC candidate. He is the sitting President, the leader of the party, the centre of its coalition, and the rallying point of its governors, legislators and defectors.

So when APC wins elections today, it is politically dishonest to pretend Tinubu is detached from the party’s fortunes.

In 2023, APC carried Tinubu to power despite internal resistance.

In 2027, Tinubu will lead APC as the incumbent President with the party structure, governors and federal coalition openly aligned behind him.

That is the difference.

So if anyone wants to argue that APC’s wins mean nothing for Tinubu, they must first explain why governors are endorsing him, defectors are joining him, and the party has already aligned behind him.

The APC of 2023 was divided around Tinubu.

The APC of 2027 is being consolidated under Tinubu.
That is not the same political equation.
Conversely,
Atiku’s 2023 structure is not Atiku’s 2027 structure.
In 2023, Atiku still had PDP governors, northern sympathy, and even anti-Tinubu forces within APC. Today, the opposition is fragmented, and R the 2027 opposition alliance has already suffered major cracks.
Also your PDP-after-Jonathan analogy is weak.
PDP continued winning seats after 2015 because it had governors, senators and state structures. Which sitting governor is openly carrying Atiku today?

Political obituaries are easy to write.

Structure is harder to explain away.

franchasng:
The mistake you guys make in your political analysis is that you forgot that Nigerians now vote for personality than party.

And what personality exactly does Mr "I won the elections, forget about proof" has?

NDC just needs to fold into ADC to give the opposition a chance, though the ego of certain candidates mean they'd rather fail again and cry rigging than work with others to attain a goal.

Myopic!

HIGHESTPOPORI:
NDC didn't participate in the elections , so stop deceiving yourself

Stop lying, they did participate and received flogging ftom APC as usual.

[code][/code]

CharlesCNG:
The comparison between APC in 2023 and APC today is apples and oranges.

In 2023, Tinubu was APC’s candidate, but he was not in full control of the federal machinery. In fact, one can reasonably argue that powerful elements within the sitting presidency were not enthusiastic about him.

That is precisely why 2027 is different.

Today, Tinubu is not merely the APC candidate. He is the sitting President, the leader of the party, the centre of its coalition, and the rallying point of its governors, legislators and defectors.


Structure is harder to explain away.

They are just consoling themselves, those Obidients. They know in their hearts of hearts that they cannot defeat President Tinubu as the sitting candidate. Not a hope in hell.

Even President Buhari couldn't defeat him, by backing other candidates in the party during their primaries, as so solid was his structure in the APC.

He will win in a larger landslide than ever if the opposition don't come together to reduce his winning margin.

National Politics with structure nor bi Obidients mate at all at all.

So it was tinubu on the ballot for house of reps abi senate
Continue deceiving yourself

CorperKola:
So it was tinubu on the ballot for house of reps abi senate
Continue deceiving yourself

You are missing the point.

Nobody said Tinubu’s name was printed on the House of Reps or Senate ballot.

The issue is the political narrative.

If, as you people claim, the North has totally rejected APC, then why is APC still sweeping elections in Kano?

If the ruling party is supposedly dead in the North, why does the “corpse” keep winning at the polling unit?

And more importantly, if NDC is the new popular movement, why did it perform so poorly where actual votes were counted?

That is the point of the thread.

Elections are not won by Twitter confidence, Abuja hotel analysis or WhatsApp excitement.

They are won by structure, voters, agents, collation and numbers.

So yes, Tinubu was not on the ballot.

But APC was.

And if APC is still winning in the North under Tinubu’s presidency, then the claim that the North has rejected APC is at best premature and at worst wishful thinking.

Political popularity is not measured by noise.

It is measured by votes.