₦airaland Forum

Nigeria Has Surpassed Its OPEC Oil Production Quota

Nigeria has recently surpassed its crude oil production quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), this was achieved in May 2026 with average crude output of 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd) versus its OPEC-assigned 1.5 million bpd quota.

If condensates are added, the country’s total hydrocarbon output in May was some 1.7 million bpd, which is 13% above its OPEC quota.

Minus condensates, this is Nigeria’s highest crude production level in the last 15 months, and it clearly positions the country as Africa’s largest oil producer.

HOW WAS THIS ACHIEVED?

Oil industry experts and stakeholders credit the following factors for the country’s significant increase in crude output:

Better surveillance of infrastructure.
Improved pipeline security.
Improved operational efficiency in the upstream sector.
Stability in the Niger Delta.

The latest figures will boost oil revenue and bolster confidence in ongoing drives to raise crude production capacity, which was previously constrained by theft, pipeline vandalism and operational challenges.

source

Okay. Congrats. However this progress should reflect positively on Nigerians as well

Tinubu this statistics wey we de chop don taya the common man oo😄

Wey our 1 refinery a year wey APC promise us?

This is NOT true.

How can we surpass OPEC quota, save billions of dollars in subsidy removal, reduce imports and increase non oil exports YET the master strategist has failed to deliver on his short term promise of N300/$1?

This is not just impossible, it’s also impossiCan’t.

What is Tinubu doing with all these revenues




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn29b0SkCWU?si=7R3mnj6mVplfAIIZ

ijustdey:
Nigeria will pay an interest of 11.85 percent per annum on the $3.3 billion “pre-export finance facility” (PxF) facilitated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Ltd and arranged by Afrexim Bank, TheCable can report.

Until now, the fine details of the transaction, which has a five-year tenor, had been withheld by all parties involved.

A similar cocoa-backed $800 million facility arranged for Ghana by its cocoa marketing board attracts an interest of 8 percent per annum.

Bilateral lenders, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), would typically charge 1-3 percent with a longer tenor.

In the details seen by TheCable, Nigeria pledged a total of 164.25 million barrels of crude oil — at 90,000 barrels per day — starting from 2024 to repay the loan through Project Gazelle Funding Ltd, an “orphan” special purpose vehicle (SPV) incorporated in Bahamas for the PxF.

Effectively, the NNPC has pledged 38.58 percent of five years’ worth of tax and royalty oil to secure the loan.

Nigeria pledges over $12 billion worth of oil
At the beginning of 2024, a barrel of Nigerian oil was sold at the international market at $77.93 per barrel, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data.

At $77.93 per barrel, the 164.25 million barrels of oil pledged by Nigeria equals $12.8 billion — about three times more than the facility taken.

Pre-2014, the national oil company used to remit an average of $3 billion from oil sales every month.

Officially, Project Gazelle Funding Ltd (PGFL) is the borrower while the NNPC is the “sponsor” and will pay with oil to the SPV to liquidate the loan.

To make the repayment, the NNPC will forward-sell 90,000 barrels per day of Nigeria’s share of offshore crude oil under the production sharing contract (PSCs) with the oil companies.

Under PSCs, the companies usually pay royalties and taxes by giving the oil equivalent to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) respectively.

The NNPC in turn exports the oil on behalf of NUPRC and FIRS and remits the proceeds to the agencies.

This is part of the revenues paid into the federation account and shared by the three tiers of government.

But under the PxF, the revenue from 90,000 barrels per day will be used to service the loan in the next five years.

The loan arrangers will get a commission of $66 million or 2% of the facility, TheCable further learnt.

Nigeria will pay 2 percent penalty per annum in the event of a default.


‘DOLLAR LIQUIDITY TO STABILISE THE NAIRA’

The national oil company announced in August 2023 that the PxF was to support the federal government “in its ongoing fiscal and monetary policy reforms aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate market”, describing it as “a relief for the naira”.

It called the facility “crude oil repayment” with an upfront cash loan “against proceeds from a limited amount of future crude oil production”.

At the time, the dollar exchanged for an average of N775 in the official market and N885 on the streets.

The rates have now moved to N1,035/$ (official) and N1,230/$ (parallel).

Nigeria’s outstanding forex liabilities are currently thought to be over $7 billion.

In an explainer after announcing the PxF last year, the NNPC said its exposure is very limited, “covering just a fraction” of their entitlements and that “there are no sovereign guarantees tied to it”.

It said it “will also equip the Federal Government with the necessary dollar liquidity to stabilize the Naira, with limited risk”.

A strengthened naira as a result of the initiative, it said, “will lead to a reduction in fuel costs. This means that if the Naira appreciates in value, the cost of fuel will drop and further increases will be halted”.

It also ruled out subsidies, maintaining that a stronger naira “will result in lower prices from the current level, making subsidies unnecessary. The deregulation policy remains unchanged”.

Critics questioned NNPC’s involvement in getting loans to boost forex reserves when it should be concentrating its efforts on bringing in more oil revenues.

There were also questions over the decision to pledge the tax and royalty oil belonging to the entire federation to secure the loan.

Analysts also queried why the details of the deal were never made public.

https://www.thecable.ng/exclusive-nigeria-to-pay-11-85-interest-on-3-3bn-afriexim-nnpc-loan-pledges-164m-barrels-as-security/amp

Another progress for emergency lovers of the country to be sad about.

When we couldnt meet the quota in february,they were all jubilating like peter OBI was just declared winner


They will soon come with their whatabout-ism.



GOD BLESS BOLA TINUBU
GOD BLESS NIGERIA
GOD BLESS THOSE WHO DOESNT ONLY LOVE THE COUNTRY WHEN THEIR CHOICE OF CANDIDATE IS IN POWER

anonimi:
This is NOT true.

How can we surpass OPEC quota, save billions of dollars in subsidy removal, reduce imports and increase non oil exports YET the master strategist has failed to deliver on his short term promise of N300/$1?

This is not just impossible, it’s also impossiCan’t.

What is Tinubu doing with all these revenues




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn29b0SkCWU?si=7R3mnj6mVplfAIIZ

Let's set politics aside and discuss the real economic issues.

When people ask, "Where is the money saved from fuel subsidy removal?" I hope that question is not directed solely at President Tinubu or the Federal Government.

First, it is important to understand that Nigeria still runs a significant budget deficit even after removing fuel subsidies. The savings from subsidy removal alone are nowhere near enough to eliminate the deficit. In other words, removing fuel subsidies does not automatically end government borrowing.

What subsidy removal does is increase the amount of money available in the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). However, FAAC funds do not belong exclusively to President Tinubu or the Federal Government. Constitutionally, those funds are shared among the Federal Government, state governments, and local governments. The President cannot spend FAAC allocations at will, nor can he dictate how state governors or local government chairmen use their respective shares.

Therefore, if the question is, "What is the subsidy savings being used for?" that question should not be directed only at the Federal Government. It should also be asked of your state governor and your local government chairman, since they receive constitutionally allocated shares of the increased FAAC revenue.

Secondly, even the Federal Government's share of the additional FAAC revenue is insufficient to cover Nigeria's annual budget deficit, which remains substantial. As a result, the country still has to borrow. The difference now is that, in principle, borrowing is no longer primarily intended to finance fuel subsidies or recurrent obligations such as salaries, but rather to support capital and infrastructure projects.

This shift in fiscal policy has contributed to improvements in Nigeria's sovereign credit outlook. Rating agencies such as S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have upgraded Nigeria's outlook in recent times, partly because of reforms including fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate liberalization.

Finally, Nigerians should not expect these reforms to produce an immediate and drastic reduction in the prices of goods and services. The more realistic expectation is that they will help stabilize inflation over time, restore macroeconomic stability, and gradually improve purchasing power as the economy adjusts. Economic reforms typically take time before their full benefits are reflected in the cost of living.

DeltaBachelor:
Okay. Congrats. However this progress should reflect positively on Nigerians as well

Let's set politics aside and discuss the real economic issues.

When people ask, "Where is the money saved from fuel subsidy removal?" I hope that question is not directed solely at President Tinubu or the Federal Government.

First, it is important to understand that Nigeria still runs a significant budget deficit even after removing fuel subsidies. The savings from subsidy removal alone are nowhere near enough to eliminate the deficit. In other words, removing fuel subsidies does not automatically end government borrowing.

What subsidy removal does is increase the amount of money available in the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). However, FAAC funds do not belong exclusively to President Tinubu or the Federal Government. Constitutionally, those funds are shared among the Federal Government, state governments, and local governments. The President cannot spend FAAC allocations at will, nor can he dictate how state governors or local government chairmen use their respective shares.

Therefore, if the question is, "What is the subsidy savings being used for?" that question should not be directed only at the Federal Government. It should also be asked of your state governor and your local government chairman, since they receive constitutionally allocated shares of the increased FAAC revenue.

Secondly, even the Federal Government's share of the additional FAAC revenue is insufficient to cover Nigeria's annual budget deficit, which remains substantial. As a result, the country still has to borrow. The difference now is that, in principle, borrowing is no longer primarily intended to finance fuel subsidies or recurrent obligations such as salaries, but rather to support capital and infrastructure projects.

This shift in fiscal policy has contributed to improvements in Nigeria's sovereign credit outlook. Rating agencies such as S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have upgraded Nigeria's outlook in recent times, partly because of reforms including fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate liberalization.

Finally, Nigerians should not expect these reforms to produce an immediate and drastic reduction in the prices of goods and services. The more realistic expectation is that they will help stabilize inflation over time, restore macroeconomic stability, and gradually improve purchasing power as the economy adjusts. Economic reforms typically take time before their full benefits are reflected in the cost of living.

People don't know that what we announce is still less than the actual productions. Racketing is going on in that industry.

Hell-born lies.

Ask them to account for the funds generated and they’ll start singing a different tune.

That’s how they claimed they’d achieved the revenue target for the year, only to have it burst.

You can only deceive your gullible supporters.

Lol...

Look at them speaking 'engrish' to justify incompetence.

Good but still not enough to fund our 2026 budget.

Ifopec quota is 1.5 mbpd and nnpc just hit 1.5 mbpd ...the word surpass where is it coming from

perhaps they take us for people with short nemory, if under GEJ nigeria recorded over 2mbdp precisely 15yrs back ..then in 2026 the same people that confuse us jonathan is clueless wants us to jubilate and acept 1.5mbpd as a progress, we didnt even break record and someone is pitching 1.5 for 1.5 as " surpassed" opec quota.

Buhari that was managing the economy , we think say he no get sense. Jonathan made us live in heaven under PDP.

These Lagos dinosaurs came with their tact and skill and see where we are, every sector almost shutting down. Not a single thing is working

Massive looting everywhere and at all levels of government. Naira turning to a tissue paper

Nigerians abroad are attacked and they cant come home because APC is the worse devil at home. APC government is sooooo useless

Crude wey be say dem dey take pay back debt Buhari don borrow since from China. No wonder it ain't making no impact on the economy.

And yet we are borrowing, yet we are the poorest nation on earth. It won't be well with everyone packaging this fraud

KennethOkonkwo:
Let's set politics aside and discuss the real economic issues.

When people ask, "Where is the money saved from fuel subsidy removal?" I hope that question is not directed solely at President Tinubu or the Federal Government.

First, it is important to understand that Nigeria still runs a significant budget deficit even after removing fuel subsidies. The savings from subsidy removal alone are nowhere near enough to eliminate the deficit. In other words, removing fuel subsidies does not automatically end government borrowing.

What subsidy removal does is increase the amount of money available in the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). However, FAAC funds do not belong exclusively to President Tinubu or the Federal Government. Constitutionally, those funds are shared among the Federal Government, state governments, and local governments. The President cannot spend FAAC allocations at will, nor can he dictate how state governors or local government chairmen use their respective shares.

Therefore, if the question is, "What is the subsidy savings being used for?" that question should not be directed only at the Federal Government. It should also be asked of your state governor and your local government chairman, since they receive constitutionally allocated shares of the increased FAAC revenue.

Secondly, even the Federal Government's share of the additional FAAC revenue is insufficient to cover Nigeria's annual budget deficit, which remains substantial. As a result, the country still has to borrow. The difference now is that, in principle, borrowing is no longer primarily intended to finance fuel subsidies or recurrent obligations such as salaries, but rather to support capital and infrastructure projects.

This shift in fiscal policy has contributed to improvements in Nigeria's sovereign credit outlook. Rating agencies such as S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have upgraded Nigeria's outlook in recent times, partly because of reforms including fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate liberalization.

Finally, Nigerians should not expect these reforms to produce an immediate and drastic reduction in the prices of goods and services. The more realistic expectation is that they will help stabilize inflation over time, restore macroeconomic stability, and gradually improve purchasing power as the economy adjusts. Economic reforms typically take time before their full benefits are reflected in the cost of living.

Even though I tend to agree with some of your submission up there, the fact still remains that FG still take 52 percent of FAAC revenue while state and LG take 48 percent.

Even though I detest the approach of obidents in their criticism of government, I don't think it is out of place for them to ask the FG to account for its own share since the FG takes the highest percentage.

If FG cannot be properly accountable, how would state and LG be accountable? FG must lead by example, so the problem is leadership starts from top to bottom.

Na to dey scatter those bitter opposition's day with good news like this

More looting and loans, nothing concern tge ordinary citizens

DeltaBachelor:
Okay. Congrats. However this progress should reflect positively on Nigerians as well

Don't worry,tinububl is working,he has already been tested and wr trust his ability to grow Nigeria.....our foreign reserves has hit $51b,NELFUND is covering over a million students, no more fuel scarcity,ASUU strikes,FDI is coming back,NGX has hit its highest growth index in history all this means one thing,the economy is better run under tinubu than it was under buhari......as for insecurity he still has a lot to do as he is failing in that.

The achievement is good.

It would be nice if they surpass 2mbpd.

KennethOkonkwo:
Let's set politics aside and discuss the real economic issues.

When people ask, "Where is the money saved from fuel subsidy removal?" I hope that question is not directed solely at President Tinubu or the Federal Government.

First, it is important to understand that Nigeria still runs a significant budget deficit even after removing fuel subsidies. The savings from subsidy removal alone are nowhere near enough to eliminate the deficit. In other words, removing fuel subsidies does not automatically end government borrowing.

What subsidy removal does is increase the amount of money available in the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). However, FAAC funds do not belong exclusively to President Tinubu or the Federal Government. Constitutionally, those funds are shared among the Federal Government, state governments, and local governments. The President cannot spend FAAC allocations at will, nor can he dictate how state governors or local government chairmen use their respective shares.

Therefore, if the question is, "What is the subsidy savings being used for?" that question should not be directed only at the Federal Government. It should also be asked of your state governor and your local government chairman, since they receive constitutionally allocated shares of the increased FAAC revenue.

Secondly, even the Federal Government's share of the additional FAAC revenue is insufficient to cover Nigeria's annual budget deficit, which remains substantial. As a result, the country still has to borrow. The difference now is that, in principle, borrowing is no longer primarily intended to finance fuel subsidies or recurrent obligations such as salaries, but rather to support capital and infrastructure projects.

This shift in fiscal policy has contributed to improvements in Nigeria's sovereign credit outlook. Rating agencies such as S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have upgraded Nigeria's outlook in recent times, partly because of reforms including fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate liberalization.

Finally, Nigerians should not expect these reforms to produce an immediate and drastic reduction in the prices of goods and services. The more realistic expectation is that they will help stabilize inflation over time, restore macroeconomic stability, and gradually improve purchasing power as the economy adjusts. Economic reforms typically take time before their full benefits are reflected in the cost of living.

It couldn't have been said any better.......the opposition supporters are being sold an utopia that Nigeria can become dubai in 4 years,its catchy and sweet to the ears but its all castles in the air propaganda.......this govt has done a very good job in stabilising the economy and halting the tanking,the major concern of the fg is the macro and they have been reputed both locally and internationally to have done a good job.

What this means for Nigeria. (According to Ai)

Higher Revenue and Forex Earnings: Extra barrels boost government oil revenues (which fund a large part of the budget), foreign exchange reserves, and the ability to service imports/debt. This provides fiscal breathing room, especially with ongoing economic reforms.

Improved Investor Confidence: Sustained higher output signals progress in addressing sector challenges (e.g., security via initiatives like Tantita), potentially attracting upstream investment needed for long-term growth.

OPEC Relations: Minor overproduction (just 2–3% above quota) is unlikely to trigger major backlash, as OPEC+ focuses on broader market balance. Nigeria has lobbied for higher quotas in the past; consistent performance strengthens its position. No immediate penalties are expected for this level.

Macro Stability: Supports naira stability, reserve buildup, and GDP growth (oil remains central despite diversification efforts). It helps meet or exceed budget assumptions (e.g., the 2026 budget used conservative benchmarks).

Risks: Gains depend on sustaining output. Renewed disruptions, global price drops, or OPEC+ cuts could reverse benefits. Nigeria's actual capacity exceeds the quota, but infrastructure and investment limit full potential.

Expected Effects on Nigerians (Indirect and Gradual):
More government revenue could fund infrastructure, social programs, or reduce borrowing/deficits, supporting long-term stability and jobs in oil/gas and related sectors.

Stronger forex/reserves may ease import costs over time and help stabilize the naira, potentially moderating some inflation pressures.
Sector growth (e.g., local content, services) could create employment.
Limited or No Immediate Relief for Most People:

Oil revenue has historically not translated well into broad-based development due to governance, corruption, and inefficiency issues ("resource curse". Many Nigerians may see little direct benefit.

Fuel prices and living costs remain high post-subsidy removal; higher production doesn't automatically lower petrol/diesel costs (Nigeria still imports much of its refined fuel).

Everyday impacts like food prices, transport, and inflation are driven more by broader reforms, global factors, and local issues than one month's output.

In summary, this is good news for Nigeria's public finances and oil sector momentum, offering a buffer amid reforms. However, for ordinary citizens, tangible improvements (cheaper goods, better services, jobs) will require sustained production, prudent spending, and diversification — not guaranteed from higher barrels alone. If the trend continues into subsequent months, effects could become more noticeable in budgets and reserves.

At the peak of the Goodluck Jonathan Administration, his Govt maintained an oil-output of 2.3m barrels per day, the APC still used insecurity to taint his Government.

PBAT even asked Goodluck Jonathan (PhD) to resign.

PapaNnamdi:
Tinubu this statistics wey we de chop don taya the common man oo😄

Wey our 1 refinery a year wey APC promise us?

tinubu na promise and fail bst

KennethOkonkwo:
Let's set politics aside and discuss the real economic issues.
When people ask, "Where is the money saved from fuel subsidy removal?" I hope that question is not directed solely at President Tinubu or the Federal Government.
First, it is important to understand that Nigeria still runs a significant budget deficit even after removing fuel subsidies. The savings from subsidy removal alone are nowhere near enough to eliminate the deficit. In other words, removing fuel subsidies does not automatically end government borrowing.
What subsidy removal does is increase the amount of money available in the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). However, FAAC funds do not belong exclusively to President Tinubu or the Federal Government. Constitutionally, those funds are shared among the Federal Government, state governments, and local governments. The President cannot spend FAAC allocations at will, nor can he dictate how state governors or local government chairmen use their respective shares.
Therefore, if the question is, "What is the subsidy savings being used for?" that question should not be directed only at the Federal Government. It should also be asked of your state governor and your local government chairman, since they receive constitutionally allocated shares of the increased FAAC revenue.
Secondly, even the Federal Government's share of the additional FAAC revenue is insufficient to cover Nigeria's annual budget deficit, which remains substantial. As a result, the country still has to borrow. The difference now is that, in principle, borrowing is no longer primarily intended to finance fuel subsidies or recurrent obligations such as salaries, but rather to support capital and infrastructure projects.
This shift in fiscal policy has contributed to improvements in Nigeria's sovereign credit outlook. Rating agencies such as S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have upgraded Nigeria's outlook in recent times, partly because of reforms including fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate liberalization.
Finally, Nigerians should not expect these reforms to produce an immediate and drastic reduction in the prices of goods and services. The more realistic expectation is that they will help stabilize inflation over time, restore macroeconomic stability, and gradually improve purchasing power as the economy adjusts. Economic reforms typically take time before their full benefits are reflected in the cost of living.

All these dogo turenchi to defend the integriThief of Tinubu and other A-looter Propaganda Conmen, APC leaders. Does Tinubu have 53% of the federation account alone, while 36 governors share 27%?

Why are we borrowing more now than when we had cheap petrol and cheap dollars with high productivity, low unemployment and low insecurity during 16 years of PDP prosperity, peace and stability anchored on Obasanjo/Atiku's privatisation and deregulation foundation?

I hope you have a concise answer to the question.

Has no effect on the streets and as it affects the fortunes of the average citizen so we are not interested. No one noticed.

So carry your news to those circles where the receipts or revenues are shared.

KennethOkonkwo:
Another progress for emergency lovers of the country to be sad about.

When we couldnt meet the quota in february,they were all jubilating like peter OBI was just declared winner


They will soon come with their whatabout-ism.



GOD BLESS BOLA TINUBU
GOD BLESS NIGERIA
GOD BLESS THOSE WHO DOESNT ONLY LOVE THE COUNTRY WHEN THEIR CHOICE OF CANDIDATE IS IN POWER

People like you are called the O YES members.
People that does not know their left from the right..
You should not be believing every lies snd deceptive policies from the government without asking questions.
You don't keep your brain so dormant,You should start making use of it now.
I come in peace

The result that a nation couldn't obtain for decades one man called Dangote has obtained it within a very short time.

While it’s progress, the story is not complete.

What is the cost of producing a barrel of crude oil, compared to other oil producers.

It cost us $25 to $40 to produce a barrel of oil versus $2-$10 by the Saudis

DeltaBachelor:
Okay. Congrats. However this progress should reflect positively on Nigerians as well

Don't worry it will reflect positively on the chargourys in France, as for ordinary folks, them go wait taya as it will be the more you look the less you see.

Tinubunomics
The more you look, the less you see