₦airaland Forum

In response to thread, Where are the obidients megaphones of 2023,a n Obidient recently made the familiar claim that “all those you mentioned won’t bring 10 percent of the votes Kwankwaso would bring in the North.”

It sounds powerful until you place it beside the 2023 election results. Then the myth begins to collapse.

So let us leave emotion and enter arithmetic.

Is Kwankwaso a northern giant, or is he mainly a Kano colossus being mistaken for the whole North?

This begs the question: which North are we talking about — Kano North or Northern Nigeria?

In the 2023 presidential election, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso scored 1,496,687 votes nationally. But here is the uncomfortable truth: 997,279 of those votes came from Kano alone. That means roughly two-thirds of his total national vote came from one state. Kwankwaso won Kano with almost one million votes.

Now look beyond Kano.

Across the entire North-West, Kwankwaso scored 1,268,250 votes. Remove Kano’s 997,279, and he got only about 270,971 votes from the remaining six North-West states combined: Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara.

In the North-East, he scored only 126,343 votes. In the North-Central, including FCT, he scored only 60,056 votes.

So where exactly is this mythical “Kwankwaso will deliver the North” coming from?

Kwankwaso has value, no doubt. He has a strong Kano base. He has name recognition. He has Kwankwasiyya structure. But Kano strength is not the same thing as Northern conquest.

And here is the harder political question: if Kwankwaso, a Hausa/Fulani northern Muslim, could not win serious votes across most of the North while heading his own presidential ticket, how will he suddenly convince those same northern voters to troop out massively for a ticket headed by Peter Obi, a South-East Christian politician?

That is not ethnic hatred. That is electoral realism.

Historically, South-East presidential candidates have struggled to gain broad northern acceptance at presidential level. You may dislike that reality. You may call it unfair. You may blame civil-war memory, religious suspicion, elite propaganda, political mistrust or weak coalition-building. But serious politics begins by recognising voting patterns, not romanticising them.

Kwankwaso could not deliver Katsina. He could not deliver Kaduna. He could not deliver Sokoto. He could not deliver Zamfara. He could not deliver the North-East. He could not deliver the North-Central. But suddenly, as Obi’s number two, he will unlock the North like an ATM card?

Politics is not abracadabra.

A serious coalition counts votes. A fantasy coalition counts vibes.

So yes, Kwankwaso may help Obi in Kano. But anyone saying he will “deliver the North” is selling political suya without meat.

Kano is important. Kano is powerful. But Kano is not the North.

2027 kwankwaso will know what is really Andrew liver salt in Kano state

Just like Lagos was not the SW in 2023.

CodeTemplar:
Just like Lagos was not the SW in 2023.

Even obi knows the dynamics that worked in his favour in 23 to get the bulk of the protest votes against Buhari’s at the time,those dynamics arent the same and the potency as been adversely diluted..... moreso he is up and against a more formidable tinubu whi is in a far stronger position than 23.

Lithiumite:
Even obi knows the dynamics that worked in his favour in 23 to get the bulk of the protest votes against Buhari’s at the time,those dynamics arent the same and the potency as been adversely diluted..... moreso he is up and against a more formidable tinubu whi is in a far stronger position than 23.

Which is more potent: a protest vote against an outgoing destroyer, or a far more furious and fierce protest, indeed, a revolution at the ballot box, against the current destroyer, who has inflicted a level of hardship, hunger, and insecurity never before witnessed in this country's history?

Tinubu knows that if he allows Peter obi to run in this election, he will lose, the kind of vote that he and kwankwaso will get is going to be too overwhelming to the extent that it will be impossible to rig

CodeTemplar:
idiotic submission. Protest vote against an outgoing destroyer.

27 is here upon us already, you only have barely 6 months to delude yourself. You see the way tinubu is already playing ping pong with ur obi's head,thats how he will have in for breakfast come January.

Ofunaofu:
Which is more potent: a protest vote against an outgoing destroyer, or a far more furious and fierce protest, indeed, a revolution at the ballot box, against the current destroyer, who has inflicted a level of hardship, hunger, and insecurity never before witnessed in this country's history?

That's how you were running all over the place with the superfluous narrative that nigerians had rejected apc but you have severally bitten the dust over several elections held since last year....ekiti, enugu north etc readily comes to mind......only a fool revels in self denial when the facts are staring you right in the face.

CharlesCNG:
In response to thread, Where are the obidients megaphones of 2023,a n Obidient recently made the familiar claim that “all those you mentioned won’t bring 10 percent of the votes Kwankwaso would bring in the North.”

It sounds powerful until you place it beside the 2023 election results. Then the myth begins to collapse.

So let us leave emotion and enter arithmetic.

Is Kwankwaso a northern giant, or is he mainly a Kano colossus being mistaken for the whole North?

This begs the question: which North are we talking about — Kano North or Northern Nigeria?

In the 2023 presidential election, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso scored 1,496,687 votes nationally. But here is the uncomfortable truth: 997,279 of those votes came from Kano alone. That means roughly two-thirds of his total national vote came from one state. Kwankwaso won Kano with almost one million votes.

Now look beyond Kano.

Across the entire North-West, Kwankwaso scored 1,268,250 votes. Remove Kano’s 997,279, and he got only about 270,971 votes from the remaining six North-West states combined: Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara.

In the North-East, he scored only 126,343 votes. In the North-Central, including FCT, he scored only 60,056 votes.

So where exactly is this mythical “Kwankwaso will deliver the North” coming from?

Kwankwaso has value, no doubt. He has a strong Kano base. He has name recognition. He has Kwankwasiyya structure. But Kano strength is not the same thing as Northern conquest.

And here is the harder political question: if Kwankwaso, a Hausa/Fulani northern Muslim, could not win serious votes across most of the North while heading his own presidential ticket, how will he suddenly convince those same northern voters to troop out massively for a ticket headed by Peter Obi, a South-East Christian politician?

That is not ethnic hatred. That is electoral realism.

Historically, South-East presidential candidates have struggled to gain broad northern acceptance at presidential level. You may dislike that reality. You may call it unfair. You may blame civil-war memory, religious suspicion, elite propaganda, political mistrust or weak coalition-building. But serious politics begins by recognising voting patterns, not romanticising them.

Kwankwaso could not deliver Katsina. He could not deliver Kaduna. He could not deliver Sokoto. He could not deliver Zamfara. He could not deliver the North-East. He could not deliver the North-Central. But suddenly, as Obi’s number two, he will unlock the North like an ATM card?

Politics is not abracadabra.

A serious coalition counts votes. A fantasy coalition counts vibes.

So yes, Kwankwaso may help Obi in Kano. But anyone saying he will “deliver the North” is selling political suya without meat.

Kano is important. Kano is powerful. But Kano is not the North.

Add Obi Kano to Obi's success in the north. Don't forget that Obi scored extremely well in the north in the last election. Kano is enough to sway the election.

Lithiumite:
That's how you were running all over the place with the superfluous narrative that nigerians had rejected apc but you have severally bitten the dust over several elections held since last year....ekiti, enugu north etc readily comes to mind......only a fool revels in self denial when the facts are staring you right in the face.

Listen, this isn’t about running a narrative or celebrating isolated elections, it’s about what Nigerians are actually living through right now.

And let’s be clear, Nigerians are up against the one who has inflicted a level of hardship, hunger, and insecurity never before witnessed in this country’s history, none other.

Ofunaofu:
Listen, this isn’t about running a narrative or celebrating isolated elections, it’s about what Nigerians are actually living through right now.

And let’s be clear, Nigerians are up against the one who has inflicted a level of hardship, hunger, and insecurity never before witnessed in this country’s history, none other.

If tinubu were to be half as unpopular as you guys claim,his party still wouldn't be winning elections,those isolated elections as you claim are pointers to where the pendulum is swinging,they are tge barometer that measures the political direction of the country......do not let anyone deceive you, the apc us far more Popular than it was in 23.....

Lithiumite:
If tinubu were to be half as unpopular as you guys claim,his party still wouldn't be winning elections,those isolated elections as you claim are pointers to where the pendulum is swinging,they are tge barometer that measures the political direction of the country......do not let anyone deceive you, the apc us far more Popular than it was in 23.....

You're missing the point.

Can you remind us how many off-cycle governorship elections the opposition won before the 2015 presidential election, when the APC went on to defeat the PDP? Or are we pretending those elections made a change of government impossible?

The real issue isn't Ekiti or Enugu North. It's that Nigerians are now up against an incumbent whose administration has inflicted unprecedented levels of hardship, hunger, and insecurity. That's what voters will ultimately judge.

Interestingly, you Tinubu supporters spend more time talking about isolated off-cycle elections than campaigning on his record over the past three years. If that record were as convincing as you suggest, surely it would be the centerpiece of the campaign rather than a list of by-election or off-cycle victories.

The facts staring Nigerians in the face aren't just election results, they're the cost of living, fuel pump prices, gas prices, food prices, jobs, and security. Nigerians know that they have been worst off and will be unwilling to walk this path for another four years. Those are the realities that will shape the next presidential election.

CodeTemplar:
Just like Lagos was not the SW in 2023.

This is deflection, not rebuttal.

“Lagos was not the South-West in 2023” does not answer the argument that Kano is not the North.

In fact, you have simply repeated my point in another form: one state is not the same thing as an entire region.

The discussion is not about whether Lagos represents the South-West. It does not. The discussion is about the claim that Kwankwaso will “deliver the North” for Obi.

That claim collapses under arithmetic.

Kwankwaso got almost one million votes in Kano, but outside Kano his northern numbers were very thin. So the burden is on you to explain how a man who could not deliver most of the North for himself as presidential candidate will suddenly deliver the same North for Peter Obi as running mate.

Bringing Lagos into it is like being asked why your roof is leaking and replying that your neighbour’s fence is short.

If your point is that Obi won Lagos in 2023 ( by less than 10,000 votes) but did not win the South-West, then thank you — you have just strengthened my argument. A big performance in one strategic state does not mean control of a whole geopolitical zone.

Exactly.

Kano is important. Lagos is important. But Kano is not the North, just as Lagos is not the South-West.

So please, address the actual point: where are the northern votes Kwankwaso delivered outside Kano?

Ofunaofu:
Which is more potent: a protest vote against an outgoing destroyer, or a far more furious and fierce protest, indeed, a revolution at the ballot box, against the current destroyer, who has inflicted a level of hardship, hunger, and insecurity never before witnessed in this country's history?

This “furious revolution at the ballot box” sounds sweet until you test it against real political movement on ground.

In Kano, the people who actually control structure have not been behaving like they believe Tinubu is a “destroyer.” Governor Abba Yusuf left NNPP in January 2026, and reports say he moved with 21 Kano Assembly members, 8 House of Representatives members and all 44 local government chairmen. That is not a small cough. That is the political engine room changing address.

Even before that, the 2025 bye-elections showed that Kano was not locked in one direction. APC won Ghari/Tsanyawa with 31,472 votes against NNPP’s 27,931, while NNPP won Bagwai/Shanono with 16,198 against APC’s 5,347. In other words, Kano voters are competitive and practical, not trapped inside your “destroyer” fantasy.

So where is this revolution? On Nairaland? On X? In WhatsApp groups?

If Kano people truly bought the “Tinubu the destroyer” narrative the way Obidients preach it, why is the sitting governor moving toward APC? Why are lawmakers moving? Why are federal representatives moving? Why are local government chairmen moving? Why is the structure shifting?

You can call hardship. That is fair. Nigerians are feeling pain. But hardship does not automatically translate into an Obi revolution. Politics is not anger alone; it is structure, trust, local interest, ethnic arithmetic, coalition, and candidate acceptability.

The same people who said Kwankwaso will deliver the North now ignore that Kwankwaso’s own Kano structure is bleeding into APC.

So please, let us leave poetry. Show us the northern structure for this Obi revolution.

Because from what we are seeing, the revolution is loud online, but the politicians with polling-unit machinery are quietly entering another bus.

oyichi:
Tinubu knows that if he allows Peter obi to run in this election, he will lose, the kind of vote that he and kwankwaso will get is going to be too overwhelming to the extent that it will be impossible to rig

This is Obidient delusion of grandeur at industrial scale.

Peter Obi ran in 2023. Nobody stopped him. He came third. Kwankwaso also ran. He came fourth. Together, they still did not win.

Now you are assuming that because two candidates who lost separately may stand near each other politically, northern voters, South-West voters, South-South voters and Middle Belt voters will suddenly line up in one miraculous electoral convoy. That is not analysis; that is political daydreaming with confidence.

Kwankwaso’s 2023 vote was overwhelmingly Kano-based. Outside Kano, his northern pull was limited. So the idea that he will magically deliver the North to an Obi-led ticket ignores both history and arithmetic.

Tinubu is not afraid of Obi running. What APC fears, like any serious party, is a disciplined opposition with structure, unity, funding, polling-unit agents, national spread and a credible path to 25% across states.

What Obidients are offering so far is noise, entitlement and prophecy.

Election is not won by saying “it will be too overwhelming to rig.” It is won by numbers, structure and coalition.

In 2023, the same people said Obi would win by a landslide.

After the election, landslide became lawsuit.

Please, let us respect arithmetic.

Ofunaofu:
You're missing the point.

Can you remind us how many off-cycle governorship elections the opposition won before the 2015 presidential election, when the APC went on to defeat the PDP? Or are we pretending those elections made a change of government impossible?

The real issue isn't Ekiti or Enugu North. It's that Nigerians are now up against an incumbent whose administration has inflicted unprecedented levels of hardship, hunger, and insecurity. That's what voters will ultimately judge.

Interestingly, you Tinubu supporters spend more time talking about isolated off-cycle elections than campaigning on his record over the past three years. If that record were as convincing as you suggest, surely it would be the centerpiece of the campaign rather than a list of by-election or off-cycle victories.

The facts staring Nigerians in the face aren't just election results, they're the cost of living, fuel pump prices, gas prices, food prices, jobs, and security. Nigerians know that they have been worst off and will be unwilling to walk this path for another four years. Those are the realities that will shape the next presidential election.

Between 2011–2015, while PDP controlled the presidency, the opposition was steadily winning major off-cycle elections:

* Edo — ACN beat PDP
* Ondo — LP beat PDP
* Anambra — APGA beat PDP
* Osun — APC beat PDP
* Ekiti — PDP won

Meaning PDP lost 4 out of 5 major off-cycle elections before eventually losing the presidency in 2015.

Since APC took power in 2023, the reverse has happened:

* Imo — APC won
* Kogi — APC won
* Bayelsa — PDP won
* Edo — APC won
* Ondo — APC won

So APC has won 4 out of 5 major off-cycle elections so far.

That’s the difference. Before 2015, the opposition was building visible electoral momentum against the ruling party. Today’s opposition simply hasn’t shown that same momentum yet.

Ofunaofu:
You're missing the point.

Can you remind us how many off-cycle governorship elections the opposition won before the 2015 presidential election, when the APC went on to defeat the PDP? Or are we pretending those elections made a change of government impossible?

The real issue isn't Ekiti or Enugu North. It's that Nigerians are now up against an incumbent whose administration has inflicted unprecedented levels of hardship, hunger, and insecurity. That's what voters will ultimately judge.

Interestingly, you Tinubu supporters spend more time talking about isolated off-cycle elections than campaigning on his record over the past three years. If that record were as convincing as you suggest, surely it would be the centerpiece of the campaign rather than a list of by-election or off-cycle victories.

The facts staring Nigerians in the face aren't just election results, they're the cost of living, fuel pump prices, gas prices, food prices, jobs, and security. Nigerians know that they have been worst off and will be unwilling to walk this path for another four years. Those are the realities that will shape the next presidential election.

Your 2015 comparison actually strengthens my point.

Before 2015, the opposition did not win every off-cycle governorship election. PDP won Ekiti in 2014, APC retained Osun in 2014, APGA retained Anambra in 2013, LP retained Ondo in 2012, and ACN retained Edo in 2012. So nobody is saying off-cycle elections alone decide presidential elections.

But 2015 was not “anger alone.” APC came with a serious structure: ACN, CPC, ANPP and others merged; governors aligned; defectors moved; the North consolidated; the South-West delivered; and the opposition presented a united national machine. That is why Buhari defeated Jonathan. It was not a Twitter revolution.

That is the difference.

Today, the opposition is fragmented. Labour is divided. ADC is struggling for clarity. NNPP is bleeding structure in Kano. PDP has lost governors and direction. Yet some people think hardship alone will automatically become Obi votes. That is not politics; that is wishful thinking.

Yes, Nigerians are suffering. Food prices, fuel prices, jobs and security will matter in 2027. Nobody is denying that. But elections are not decided only by pain. They are decided by who converts public pain into organised votes.

That is why off-cycle elections, bye-elections and defections matter. They show direction of structure on ground. APC winning 12 of 16 seats in the 2025 bye-elections is not everything, but it is not nothing. It shows organisation. It shows mobilisation. It shows where politicians with local machinery are moving.

You say Tinubu supporters should campaign on his record. Fine. The record includes painful reforms: subsidy removal, FX reform, tax reform, local government autonomy, student loans, infrastructure push and state police movement. Imperfect? Yes. Painful? Yes. But it is a record.

The opposition also has a record: quarrels, defections, weak structure, coalition confusion and slogans.

So the real question is not whether Nigerians are angry. Many are.

The question is: who has the structure to harvest that anger?

In 2015, APC had it.

In 2027, does Obi?

Ofunaofu:
You're missing the point.

Can you remind us how many off-cycle governorship elections the opposition won before the 2015 presidential election, when the APC went on to defeat the PDP? Or are we pretending those elections made a change of government impossible?

The real issue isn't Ekiti or Enugu North. It's that Nigerians are now up against an incumbent whose administration has inflicted unprecedented levels of hardship, hunger, and insecurity. That's what voters will ultimately judge.

Interestingly, you Tinubu supporters spend more time talking about isolated off-cycle elections than campaigning on his record over the past three years. If that record were as convincing as you suggest, surely it would be the centerpiece of the campaign rather than a list of by-election or off-cycle victories.

The facts staring Nigerians in the face aren't just election results, they're the cost of living, fuel pump prices, gas prices, food prices, jobs, and security. Nigerians know that they have been worst off and will be unwilling to walk this path for another four years. Those are the realities that will shape the next presidential election.

The political dynamics of 15 are totally different from what we have currently.......in 15 the pdp was being decimated from within it was bleeding from the inside out,govs and other powerful politicians were moving out and heading in one singular destination which was the apc even the NASS caucus was being balanced and the opposition was still far more formidable. These are factors......what have you got now,you even have more of them gravitating towards the center than out of it,the balance of power is heavily tilted in favor of the apc.

The opposition still won osun state,yes you can claim that was in the opposition stronghold but can you juxtapose with contemporary realities,which state can the opposition claim if elections were to be held today,I will agree with you if you mention abia or anambra but I will also ask you where the political leadership of thise 2 states are leaning,even current osun......in 15 the opposition was one formidable unit with 12 govs but today you have a grossly weakened and balkanised opposition struggling to even hold on to even one single state.

You have every right to be anti tinubu ir apc but you should know there are also others who are also on the other side and so many that will be bought over,you can continue to averse yourself from such reality but it's the hard cold truth and the apc currently that has the highest power of patronage, better and well oiled political structure ahead of anybody........the 23 surprise of obi came at a wrong time, he could have stood some chance if he had come 27 as a dark horse but now the establishment already knows him and well aware of his threath and are already primed to clip his wings.

Ofodirinwa:
Add Obi Kano to Obi's success in the north. Don't forget that Obi scored extremely well in the north in the last election. Kano is enough to sway the election.

The Obi Northern Myth: Middle Belt Protest Vote Is Not Northern Conquest

One of the biggest Obidient exaggerations is the claim that Peter Obi “did well in the North” in 2023. The figures tell a more precise story.

Obi’s real northern strength came mainly from the **North-Central/FCT**, especially Plateau, Nasarawa and Abuja. In the FCT, he scored 281,717 votes. In Nasarawa, he won with 191,361 votes. In Plateau, he won strongly with 466,272 votes. These results were significant, but they were largely driven by urban voters, Christian/Middle Belt sentiment, insecurity concerns, and protest against the APC Muslim-Muslim ticket.

That is not the same thing as conquering the North.

In the North-West, Obi was weak outside Kaduna. He got only **28,513 votes in Kano**, while Kwankwaso took **997,279**. In the North-East, Obi’s numbers were also limited, except for pockets like Taraba and Adamawa. He did not win Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, Gombe, Niger, Kogi or Kwara.

So when Obidients say Obi has northern strength, they are stretching the truth.

Obi had a Middle Belt/FCT protest vote, not broad northern acceptance. Politics requires recognising that difference.

Since then, even some of those 2023 protest pockets have changed politically. In Taraba, Governor Agbu Kefas, who came from the PDP structure, has moved into the APC orbit with much of the state’s political machinery. That matters because Obi’s 2023 Taraba support was partly a Christian/Middle Belt protest vote, but state structure is now shifting toward the ruling party.

In Plateau, Obi’s 2023 presidential strength did not automatically become Labour Party control. PDP won the governorship, By 2027, the Muslim-Muslim ticket shock may also be softer, and voters may judge more by security, local alliances, party machinery and performance than by the protest mood of 2023.


A protest pocket is not regional conquest.

Obi did not do well in the North because his vp candidate Datti was a nobody in politics,Tinubu ran with a former Gov as vp,Atiku ran with a former Gov as vp,that's why Obi is running with kwankwanso a former Gov of Kano in 2027.

Lithiumite:
If tinubu were to be half as unpopular as you guys claim,his party still wouldn't be winning elections,those isolated elections as you claim are pointers to where the pendulum is swinging,they are tge barometer that measures the political direction of the country......do not let anyone deceive you, the apc us far more Popular than it was in 23.....

Sanwo-olu won his re-election under APC, but Tinubu lost Lagos. Hope Uzodinma won his re-election under APC, but Tinubu lost Imo. Nwifuru won his re-election but Tinubu lost Ebonyi. The governors of Cross Rivers, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe, etc all won their re-elections under APC but Tinubu did not win the states. Tinubu is more unpopular than APC and Nigerians can tell the difference. Just like PDP after Jonathan, APC as a party will continue to exist and win elections long after Tinubu is voted out of power. Tinubu is not the sole owner of the APC despite his attempts to personalise it by hounding and chasing other blocs away.

Oga rest.. shebi Kano is now SE rest. Zukwanuike.

AMINDA:
Sanwo-olu won his re-election under APC, but Tinubu lost Lagos. Hope Uzodinma won his re-election under APC, but Tinubu lost Imo. Nwifuru won his re-election but Tinubu lost Ebonyi. The governors of Cross Rivers, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe, etc all won their re-elections under APC but Tinubu did not win the states. Tinubu is more unpopular than APC and Nigerians can tell the difference. Just like PDP after Jonathan, APC as a party will continue to exist and win elections long after Tinubu is voted out of power. Tinubu is not the sole owner of the APC despite his attempts to personalise it by hounding and chasing other blocs away.

Tinubu wasn't on the mantle then,tinubu wasn't the favorite candidate of the cabal.....27 won't be 23 go and write that down.....as you are dreaming,others are equally preparing for you.

Lithiumite:
Tinubu wasn't on the mantle then,tinubu wasn't the favorite candidate of the cabal.....27 won't be 23 go and write that down.....as you are dreaming,others are equally preparing for you.

It wasn't the cabals that voted. It was Nigerians and Tinubu has not gotten more popular overall than he was in 2023. Unless you're affirming that he will rig the election.

AMINDA:
It wasn't the cabals that voted. It was Nigerians and Tinubu has not gotten more popular overall than he was in 2023. Unless you're affirming that he will rig the election.

You know nothing and you truly know nothing.......you think one just wakes up in the morning and becomes president....." the cabal didn't vote" las if they needed to.......what a very pedestrian inference !!

lionshare:
Between 2011–2015, while PDP controlled the presidency, the opposition was steadily winning major off-cycle elections:

* Edo — ACN beat PDP
* Ondo — LP beat PDP
* Anambra — APGA beat PDP
* Osun — APC beat PDP
* Ekiti — PDP won

Meaning PDP lost 4 out of 5 major off-cycle elections before eventually losing the presidency in 2015.

Since APC took power in 2023, the reverse has happened:

* Imo — APC won
* Kogi — APC won
* Bayelsa — PDP won
* Edo — APC won
* Ondo — APC won

So APC has won 4 out of 5 major off-cycle elections so far.

That’s the difference. Before 2015, the opposition was building visible electoral momentum against the ruling party. Today’s opposition simply hasn’t shown that same momentum yet.

Cc svoboda, aminda

AMINDA:
Sanwo-olu won his re-election under APC, but Tinubu lost Lagos. Hope Uzodinma won his re-election under APC, but Tinubu lost Imo. Nwifuru won his re-election but Tinubu lost Ebonyi. The governors of Cross Rivers, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe, etc all won their re-elections under APC but Tinubu did not win the states. Tinubu is more unpopular than APC and Nigerians can tell the difference. Just like PDP after Jonathan, APC as a party will continue to exist and win elections long after Tinubu is voted out of power. Tinubu is not the sole owner of the APC despite his attempts to personalise it by hounding and chasing other blocs away.

This argument is clever on the surface, but weak when you examine the numbers.

First, you said Tinubu lost Lagos. Correct — but by only 9,848 votes. Obi scored 582,454, while Tinubu scored 572,606. Barely three weeks later, Sanwo-Olu won the governorship massively with over 700,000 votes, defeating Labour by more than 400,000 votes. What does that tell you? Lagos voters did not reject APC as a structure. Many simply made a presidential protest vote and returned to APC for state power.

Second, Tinubu did not lose the North-West in 2023. He won the zone in total votes. TheCable’s breakdown showed Tinubu scoring about 2.65 million votes in the North-West against Atiku’s about 2.19 million. Atiku won more states in the zone, but Tinubu’s raw numbers were stronger, especially because he took huge votes in Kano, Katsina, Kaduna and other states even where he came second.

Look at the actual margins. In Katsina, Atiku scored 489,045, Tinubu 482,283 — a difference of only 6,762. In Sokoto, Atiku scored 288,679, Tinubu 285,444— a difference of only 3,235. Those are not signs of rejection; those are razor-thin losses in a four-way presidential election.

In Kaduna, Atiku won with 554,360, Tinubu had **399,293**, and Obi had 294,494. In Kebbi, Atiku won, but again the point is that these were presidential-level 2023 dynamics under a divided field, not evidence that APC as a 2027 ruling structure cannot deliver.

Now to Cross River. Obi won the presidential election there with 179,917, Tinubu had 130,520, Atiku 95,425, and Kwankwaso 1,644. But in the governorship election, APC’s Bassey Otu won with about 258,619, while PDP’s Sandy Onor got about 179,636. That is a major reversal from the presidential mood and proof that local structure, zoning and candidate strength mattered more than presidential protest sentiment.

Also, let us correct your South-East examples. Hope Uzodimma’s re-election was off-cycle, not part of the March 2023 governorship election. Nwifuru did not win “re-election” in Ebonyi; he was elected for the first time in 2023.

The split-ticket phenomenon you are talking about was most pronounced in the South-East and Obi-heavy Christian/urban protest zones. In the South-East, many politicians quietly campaigned split-ticket: Obi for president, but APC/PDP/APGA locally. That is why Tinubu performed poorly presidentially in the South-East, yet APC still held governorship structures in places like Ebonyi and Imo.

But 2027 is different. Tinubu is no longer just APC’s candidate; he is the sitting President and leader of the party. No serious APC governor or candidate will openly ask voters to support him locally while abandoning the presidential leader of his own party without damaging his own future.

That is why the real target for APC in the South-East may not even be outright victory. It may be securing **25%** in states where first-term APC governors and local structures now have every incentive to deliver.

Finally, the claim that Tinubu is uniquely unpopular is largely a social-media myth. It is loud in urban spaces, but elections are not won only on X and Nairaland. Rural voters respond to party structure, governors, local leaders, projects, patronage, federal access and political alignment.

So the correct lesson from 2023 is not “Tinubu is more unpopular than APC.”

The correct lesson is this: 2023 produced unusual split-ticket voting because of Obi’s protest wave, regional sentiment and local governorship calculations.

2027 will be a different election, with different incentives, different alignments and a sitting APC President at the centre of the party machinery.

CharlesCNG:
This argument is clever on the surface, but weak when you examine the numbers.

First, you said Tinubu lost Lagos. Correct — but by only 9,848 votes. Obi scored 582,454, while Tinubu scored 572,606. Barely three weeks later, Sanwo-Olu won the governorship massively with over 700,000 votes, defeating Labour by more than 400,000 votes. What does that tell you? Lagos voters did not reject APC as a structure. Many simply made a presidential protest vote and returned to APC for state power.

Second, Tinubu did not lose the North-West in 2023. He won the zone in total votes. TheCable’s breakdown showed Tinubu scoring about 2.65 million votes in the North-West against Atiku’s about 2.19 million. Atiku won more states in the zone, but Tinubu’s raw numbers were stronger, especially because he took huge votes in Kano, Katsina, Kaduna and other states even where he came second.

Look at the actual margins. In Katsina, Atiku scored 489,045, Tinubu 482,283 — a difference of only 6,762. In Sokoto, Atiku scored 288,679, Tinubu 285,444— a difference of only 3,235. Those are not signs of rejection; those are razor-thin losses in a four-way presidential election.

In Kaduna, Atiku won with 554,360, Tinubu had **399,293**, and Obi had 294,494. In Kebbi, Atiku won, but again the point is that these were presidential-level 2023 dynamics under a divided field, not evidence that APC as a 2027 ruling structure cannot deliver.

Now to Cross River. Obi won the presidential election there with 179,917, Tinubu had 130,520, Atiku 95,425, and Kwankwaso 1,644. But in the governorship election, APC’s Bassey Otu won with about 258,619, while PDP’s Sandy Onor got about 179,636. That is a major reversal from the presidential mood and proof that local structure, zoning and candidate strength mattered more than presidential protest sentiment.

Also, let us correct your South-East examples. Hope Uzodimma’s re-election was off-cycle, not part of the March 2023 governorship election. Nwifuru did not win “re-election” in Ebonyi; he was elected for the first time in 2023.

The split-ticket phenomenon you are talking about was most pronounced in the South-East and Obi-heavy Christian/urban protest zones. In the South-East, many politicians quietly campaigned split-ticket: Obi for president, but APC/PDP/APGA locally. That is why Tinubu performed poorly presidentially in the South-East, yet APC still held governorship structures in places like Ebonyi and Imo.

But 2027 is different. Tinubu is no longer just APC’s candidate; he is the sitting President and leader of the party. No serious APC governor or candidate will openly ask voters to support him locally while abandoning the presidential leader of his own party without damaging his own future.

That is why the real target for APC in the South-East may not even be outright victory. It may be securing **25%** in states where first-term APC governors and local structures now have every incentive to deliver.

Finally, the claim that Tinubu is uniquely unpopular is largely a social-media myth. It is loud in urban spaces, but elections are not won only on X and Nairaland. Rural voters respond to party structure, governors, local leaders, projects, patronage, federal access and political alignment.

So the correct lesson from 2023 is not “Tinubu is more unpopular than APC.”

The correct lesson is this: 2023 produced unusual split-ticket voting because of Obi’s protest wave, regional sentiment and local governorship calculations.

2027 will be a different election, with different incentives, different alignments and a sitting APC President at the centre of the party machinery.

Good. Thank you for affirming that the North made Tinubu president. He only won 4 states out of 17 Southern states and his entire margin in the South was nothing to write home about. You gave us the breakdown of votes from Lagos where he ruled for 8 years but didn't give us his breakdown in other APC-governed states in the South like Imo, Ebonyi and Cross Rivers. Bottomline is that having an APC governor is no guarantee for votes. You're welcome.

yarimo:
2027 kwankwaso will know what is really Andrew liver salt in Kano state

The Op will not open thread about more than 30 Borno kids writing Neco that was abducted by Boko haram..

It's always about demeaning opposition, is Opposition the problem of Nigeria?.
APc has proven to bereft of ideas on how to pilot the affairs of the country..

Attack Kwankwaso all you want. it won't bring back the oyo children in the bush

Tinubu is a failure

AMINDA:
Good. Thank you for affirming that the North made Tinubu president. He only won 4 states out of 17 Southern states and his entire margin in the South was nothing to write home about. You gave us the breakdown of votes from Lagos where he ruled for 8 years but didn't give us his breakdown in other APC-governed states in the South like Imo, Ebonyi and Cross Rivers. Bottomline is that having an APC governor is no guarantee for votes. You're welcome.

No, the North alone did not “make Tinubu president.” Tinubu became president because he built a formidable national coalition in 2023 — South-West base, North-West strength, North-Central spread, parts of the North-East, and strategic footholds in the South-South.

The figures prove it. Tinubu won the **South-West** with **2,279,407 votes**, but he actually got even more from the **North-West**, where he scored **2,652,235 votes** against Atiku’s **2,329,540**. So while Atiku won more individual North-West states, Tinubu won the zone in total votes. That is coalition politics, not ethnic accident.

Now look at Osun. In 2023, Atiku won Osun with **354,366 votes**, while Tinubu scored **343,945** — a margin of only **10,421 votes**. Obi had just **23,283**, and Kwankwaso **713**. So let us ask honestly: did Atiku really win Osun because Osun people suddenly became Atiku people? No. PDP structure, Adeleke’s popularity, and state-government momentum carried that vote.

Fast-forward to 2027, and that same Osun calculation has changed. Reports show that Governor Adeleke and Osun PDP leaders endorsed Tinubu’s re-election, while Osun APC also received defecting PDP federal lawmakers and endorsed Tinubu. In another report, Adeleke insisted that Accord in Osun would support Tinubu in 2027. That means the local structure that helped Atiku in 2023 is no longer naturally available against Tinubu in 2027.

This is what I call scientific projection: start from the last result, identify why it happened, then ask what has changed. Election projection is not prophecy. It is pattern analysis.

Having an APC governor does not automatically guarantee winning every state. I agree. But it greatly improves the chances of votes, especially where the target is not total victory but constitutional spread. In the South-East, for example, APC does not need to win every state to improve Tinubu’s 2027 position. It needs serious first-term governors and structures to deliver at least **25%** where possible.

That is why the “Tinubu cannot win” crowd keeps missing the point. They are reading 2027 with 2023 emotions, while the ground structure is already shifting.

I will give a state-by-state projection for every single northern state, and I will appeal to you to bookmark it.

I can also give a state-by-state projection for every southern state, and we can all debate it openly on this thread. Then, after the election results are announced, we can return to the projections and cross-check them against reality.

That is how serious political analysis should work.


state-by-state projection, voting history, current alignments, party structure, governors’ influence, local political mood, defections, candidate acceptability, and what has changed since the last election.

Politics is not only about who people liked yesterday.

Politics is also about who controls the machinery tomorrow.

ZombieTERROR:
The Op will not open thread about more than 30 Borno kids writing Neco that was abducted by Boko haram..

It's always about demeaning opposition, is Opposition the problem of Nigeria?.
APc has proven to bereft of ideas on how to pilot the affairs of the country..

Attack Kwankwaso all you want. it won't bring back the oyo children in the bush

Tinubu is a failure

Obidient deflection spotted.

My brother, I am not the only contributor on Nairaland, and I am not under obligation to open a thread on every tragedy, every policy issue, every kidnapping, every court case, every election, and every national crisis.

You and your fellow Obidients are free to open threads on any topic that interests you. I am also free to open threads on topics that interest me. That is the basic meaning of a public forum.

But this is the simple democratic principle many Obidients struggle with: there is no compulsory unanimity of opinion in a democracy.

Nairaland is not your WhatsApp group. It is not an Obidient prayer band.
It is not a place where only anti-Tinubu anger must be allowed to breathe.
It is a forum where different sides can argue, disagree, rebut and present competing narratives.

If you care about the abducted children, open the thread. I will not stop you. If you want to discuss insecurity, discuss it. But do not use tragedy- as you obidients do- as emotional blackmail to dictate what another person must write about.

That is bullying, not activism.

Your real anger is not that I failed to open a thread. Your anger is that I keep opening threads that challenge your political comfort zone.

And I will continue to do that.

Because some of us are determined to stand up to this anti-democratic Obidient habit of abuse, intimidation and narrative policing on Nairaland.

You want everyone to hear only the sound of your own angry voice.

Sorry, this forum is still open to other voices.