₦airaland Forum

Dangote is a corporate bandit & armed rubber.
Am happy I wasn’t one of those that celebrated the dangote refinery.

Nigerian capitalism is the worst in the world.
Dangote, Bua, Air peace, etc.

malali:
The Executive Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Commission, Mr. Tunji Bello, clarified that the FCCPC does not regulate or approve petroleum prices in Nigeria’s deregulated downstream sector.

“To be clear, the Commission does not regulate or approve petroleum prices in a deregulated downstream market.” Bello said.

He added that while petroleum marketers often increase pump prices almost immediately whenever global crude oil prices rise, consumers are yet to enjoy corresponding reductions despite the recent decline in crude prices.

“We are concerned that while dealers often respond swiftly by hiking pump prices whenever crude prices rise, it is curious that it is taking forever for consumers to benefit significantly when crude prices fall. Competitive markets must work fairly in both directions,” he stated.

Source: https://dailytrust.com/just-in-crude-falls-to-70-but-nigerian-marketers-maintain-n1200-pump-price/

^^^


How are those "bold and courageous" economic reforms working out for you?

Fuel subsidy is 'gone' and the downstream market has been 'deregulated'...but by government's own admission, prices are working in just one direction (in a so called competitive market).

If your regulators have to keep making these public interventions to threaten petroleum marketers, then your markets are not competitive, full stop.

Crony capitalism is the worst of both worlds

Subsidy removal without national functional refinery and floating of the naira are BAT's major economic miscalculations😡

yesloaded:
I blame the Federal Government because the country is not ripe for such policy


You can leave the fate of petroleum sector in the hands of an individual

They've messed up cement & some peoples full year salaries cannot pay their house rent

Well if you guys had supported one GEJ to remove fuel subsidy in 2012, by now we would have had more refineries.

Not doing so made it impossible for other people with licences to compete with Dangote, because they didn't have the collateral dangote did to secure the loans he needed to build his refinery.

(BUA is hard at work on his Ibeno refinery though., and three others are coming, plus we have five working private refineries)

Plus if you people had listened to the IMF In 1993, the NNPC refineries would have not only been working , they would have been massively exporting and satisfying domestic need at the same time too.

ikechukz:
I'll just assume that most people posting here are not business people. Imagine if Dangote had bought for $100 and is even yet to refine that batch, he should automatically start selling at a huge loss to Nigerians to make them happy.

Most people think that profits go straight into a businessman's pocket and private accounts. It does not work that way.

Noblex2011:
Are you stupid or what? You should keep your level of it to yourself. Pele.... businessman isonu.
When it was increased he didn't have left over then. Your level of stupidity in too much.
Very annoying comment sha

The reason why it was increased was because marketers would have money to buy stock coming from /REFINED FROM the crude that was sold at the higher prices.

Had they not done that, you would have eventually seen scarcity, if they kept prices low all this while, because they cannot afford enough new stock. And you would be buying fuel at black market for N2000-3000 Per liter.

oshkoach:
Dangote is a corporate bandit & armed rubber.
Am happy I wasn’t one of those that celebrated the dangote refinery.

Nigerian capitalism is the worst in the world.
Dangote, Bua, Air peace, etc.

No business person keeps prices low for you to make you happy, they sell at prices that keep their businesses running, especially since they have to pay taxes, wages, pensions, and a host of other things.

ikechukz:
I'll just assume that most people posting here are not business people. Imagine if Dangote had bought for $100 and is even yet to refine that batch, he should automatically start selling at a huge loss to Nigerians to make them happy.

Don’t try to be clever by half. When they purchased at say $60 and price rose to $100 did they clear the batch bought at $60 before raising prices?

bdon123:
This is an ignorant post.giv time as old stock has to go.price cannot be changed every week becos crude oil prices has changed.

But it does not have to go when prices go up?
Or was price not changing every week (every other day, in fact) during the Iran war?

Becos tiffnubu no send una papa

femi4:
There are other factors to put into consideration

Like what? Educate us!

bdon123:
This is an ignorant post.giv time as old stock has to go.price cannot be changed every week becos crude oil prices has changed.

You're the ignorant one here. Why are they quick to raise the prices IMMEDIATELY crude price goes up without considering the "old stock"?!

Fryzi:
Nigerians are the biggest problems to themselves. We are wicked and greedy.

I keep. Saying that Nigeria is the most greedy species of human to ever existed. Everywhere, people are taking advantage of the masses. Go to transport sector and see how transport cost has flair up. A short distance you can even trek is now 1k. I think union should be disband like NURTW. This guy's are smiling yo the bank and they don't want to reduce prices. People that transport from island to mainland, how do you guys survive this?

nairalanda1:
Well if you guys had supported one GEJ to remove fuel subsidy in 2012, by now we would have had more refineries.

Not doing so made it impossible for other people with licences to compete with Dangote, because they didn't have the collateral dangote did to secure the loans he needed to build his refinery.

(BUA is hard at work on his Ibeno refinery though., and three others are coming, plus we have five working private refineries)

Plus if you people had listened to the IMF In 1993, the NNPC refineries would have not only been working , they would have been massively exporting and satisfying domestic need at the same time too.

How u take know who I supported?

Oga check my posts regarding politics n you go understand my stand

I don't follow any politicians sheepishly, even if na my blood

Akwamkpuruamu:
Dem no born Tinubu well to caution Dangote to reduce fuel price as the global price is back to former price level

Because he has no right..... Dangote refinery is a private enterprise... What the government needs to do is grant more importing license to other private entity to allow more competition

yesloaded:
How u take know who I supported?

Oga check my posts regarding politics n you go understand my stand

I don't follow any politicians sheepishly, even if na my blood

It doesn't take following a politican to follow and applaud for a good policy or support it.

Also, keeping subsidy or bringing back subsidy because cheap fuel is part of why we have issues with debt and the economy and with domestic refining.

At least we now have dangote. He has to pay for a host of costs. If not for him, we would have been spending nearly N2000 or more per liter at the pump.

greatdave:
You're the ignorant one here. Why are they quick to raise the prices IMMEDIATELY crude price goes up without considering the "old stock"?!

Because once crude goes up, cost of refining goes up, and by extension prices of fuel..and that is going to happen in a few weeks from any price increases, so prices have to go up so that the marketer can afford stock produced from higher priced crude.

just2endowed:
I keep. Saying that Nigeria is the most greedy species of human to ever existed. Everywhere, people are taking advantage of the masses. Go to transport sector and see how transport cost has flair up. A short distance you can even trek is now 1k. I think union should be disband like NURTW. This guy's are smiling yo the bank and they don't want to reduce prices. People that transport from island to mainland, how do you guys survive this?

Well, transporters too have to pay for all sorts of costs, especially fuel costs, because like you they are suffering the tinubu economy.

Unless you want government to be setting prices for everyone, which is a proven bad idea, better accept am.

malali:
How long will it take for the government to intervene in this daylight extortion and exploitation of Nigerians ?

The same man who doubles as Minister of Petroleum, and is busy eyeing re-election, has not uttered a single word as marketers exploit Nigerians despite crashing crude prices.

This is the same president whose only real energy is reserved for collecting foreign loans and spending them.

Insecurity killing people daily? Silence.

Inflation choking families? Silence.

No power, no jobs? Silence.

Mass kidnapping of school children. Silence.

But petrol prices? Not a single official statement from his office.This lackadaisical, tone-deaf leadership is unacceptable. Tinubu should address Nigerians directly on this matter, not through proxies.

Tinubu can ease price pressure by opening temporary free-market import licenses for fuel marketers to import at competitive landed costs. Once new entrants flood supply, monopoly pricing breaks, competition forces margin compression, and prices naturally reset lower before incumbents lose market share.

You think they don't know what to do ? This government is out to fleece Nigerians. One of my colleagues from the SW said that he regrets voting for this party. He said everyday he is asking God to forgive him for supporting this government.
And there are still z0mbies supporting them

Everyone fails to mention Trump when the price is down.

nairalanda1:
It doesn't take following a politican to follow and applaud for a good policy or support it.

Also, keeping subsidy or bringing back subsidy because cheap fuel is part of why we have issues with debt and the economy and with domestic refining.

At least we now have dangote. He has to pay for a host of costs. If not for him, we would have been spending nearly N2000 or more per liter at the pump.

You seems not to understand simple economics bro

If not for dangote? Are you playing? 😂

What's yhe Nigeria debt profile under Jonathan compared to what we have now?

We are taking about reality here and not propaganda

You ain't talking to a kid bro

FBIBOT:
Because he has no right..... Dangote refinery is a private enterprise... What the government needs to do is grant more importing license to other private entity to allow more competition

Keep was your competition theory when oil prices were rising?

yesloaded:
You seems not to understand simple economics bro

If not for dangote? Are you playing? 😂

What's yhe Nigeria debt profile under Jonathan compared to what we have now?

We are taking about reality here and not propaganda

You ain't talking to a kid bro

You are now going off track.

GEJ proposed a good policy to create more refineries, and it was to remove subsidy, and most of you said no then, and said no in the past.

Now enjoy the consequences of saying no, and buy your fuel in peace, and contentment.

malali:
Source: https://dailytrust.com/just-in-crude-falls-to-70-but-nigerian-marketers-maintain-n1200-pump-price/

What Should Petrol Really Cost In Nigeria When Crude Falls To $70? A Dangote Refinery Price Reality Check. by CharlesCNG.

Nigerians are right to ask why petrol prices do not fall as quickly as they rise. In a deregulated market, if crude oil rises, pump prices move up. If crude oil falls, consumers should also see relief. A market cannot be “deregulated” only when marketers want to increase prices.

But to know what petrol should cost, we must separate emotion from the pricing template.

Petrol price is not determined by crude oil alone. The final pump price includes crude cost, refining cost, refinery margin, financing cost, depot margin, transport, marketers’ margin, station operating cost, taxes/levies where applicable, and exchange rate.

As of July 2026, Dangote Refinery has reportedly cut its PMS ex-gantry price to ₦1,075 per litre, after earlier reductions from ₦1,250 to ₦1,175, then ₦1,125, and now ₦1,075. The Guardian reported that Dangote said the cumulative reduction was about ₦200 per litre since May 30, 2026, while also noting that the refinery was still processing crude bought at higher international prices.

Now let us do the arithmetic.

At $70 per barrel, crude oil costs about 44 cents per litre because one barrel contains about 159 litres.

Using an exchange rate around **₦1,370/$**, that gives a crude input cost of roughly:

$70 ÷ 159 = $0.44 per litre.
$0.44 × ₦1,370 = about ₦603 per litre.

So before refining, logistics and margins, the crude element alone is already around ₦600 per litre. The naira exchange rate is crucial here. Current market references put the official rate around the ₦1,369–₦1,380/$ range in early July 2026.

After crude cost, the refinery must recover refining cost, energy cost, chemicals, maintenance, financing, staff, depreciation, refinery margin and distribution-related costs. In the United States, the Energy Information Administration explains that gasoline retail prices are built from crude oil cost, refining costs/profits, distribution/marketing and taxes.

Using that global pricing logic, Dangote’s current ₦1,075 ex-gantry price is not completely out of line with a $70 crude environment when converted through Nigeria’s exchange rate. In fact, if we use a simplified U.S.-style no-subsidy template, a petrol price around ₦1,050–₦1,150 per litre ex-refinery/ex-depot is broadly defensible.

But the question is pump price.

If Dangote sells at ₦1,075 per litre ex-gantry, then a fair Lagos pump price should not still be ₦1,250–₦1,300 unless marketers can justify the spread.

A reasonable price band should look like this:

| Component | Estimated ₦/litre |
| ------------------------------------- | ----------------: |
| Dangote ex-gantry price | ₦1,075 |
| Depot/marketer margin | ₦20–₦40 |
| Transport/logistics within Lagos axis | ₦15–₦35 |
| Retail station margin/operating cost | ₦30–₦50 |
| **Reasonable Lagos pump price** | ₦1,140–₦1,200|

For Abuja and farther locations, transport and distribution costs are higher. So a reasonable range may be:

| Location | Reasonable pump price range |
| ---------------------------------------- | --------------------------: |
| Lagos/Ogun axis | ₦1,140–₦1,200 |
| South-West outside Lagos | ₦1,160–₦1,220 |
| Abuja/North-Central | ₦1,190–₦1,250 |
| Far North/South-East depending logistics | ₦1,220–₦1,280 |

So if Lagos is still selling above ₦1,200 after Dangote’s ex-gantry price has fallen to ₦1,075**, consumers have a legitimate question: what exactly is the additional margin covering?

Now compare with a U.S. refinery without subsidy.

At $70 crude and ₦1,370/$, the crude component is still about **₦603 per litre**. If crude represents roughly half of the final U.S. retail gasoline price, then the full unsubsidised retail equivalent would be around **₦1,200–₦1,300 per litre**, depending on taxes, refining margins, state rules and distribution costs. But if you remove heavy U.S. taxes, the no-subsidy, pre-tax equivalent falls closer to **₦1,050–₦1,150 per litre**.

That is why Dangote’s **₦1,075 ex-gantry price** is not strange. What needs scrutiny is the gap between ex-gantry and pump price.

The FCCPC is also correct to raise the competition question. Its Executive Vice Chairman, Tunji Bello, reportedly clarified that the FCCPC does not regulate petroleum prices in a deregulated market, but it can question anti-competitive behaviour, unfair practices and one-sided market conduct. The commission’s concern is simple: marketers respond quickly when crude rises, but respond slowly when crude falls.

That is the heart of the matter.

Dangote has reduced ex-gantry prices. Crude has fallen. The naira has been relatively stable around the ₦1,370/$ region. Therefore, the fair expectation is that petrol should now be moving toward ₦1,150–₦1,200 per litre in Lagos**, and around **₦1,200–₦1,280** in farther locations, depending on logistics.

So my conclusion is this:

At today’s crude and exchange-rate realities, petrol should not be ₦900 per litre. That would likely require either cheaper crude, stronger naira, subsidy, or a very compressed margin.

But petrol should also not remain stubbornly around **₦1,300** in Lagos if Dangote is selling at **₦1,075 ex-gantry**.

The realistic fair price today is not political propaganda.

It is around **₦1,150–₦1,200 in Lagos**, with higher prices outside Lagos justified only by transparent transport and distribution costs.

If marketers want Nigerians to accept deregulation, then deregulation must work both ways.

When crude rises, prices rise.

When crude falls, prices must fall too.

ikechukz:
I'll just assume that most people posting here are not business people. Imagine if Dangote had bought for $100 and is even yet to refine that batch, he should automatically start selling at a huge loss to Nigerians to make them happy.

You are so on point.

It is like a woman who runs a small buka.

Last week, she bought rice at ₦80,000 per bag, tomatoes at ₦40,000 per basket, groundnut oil at a high price, paid transport, paid staff, bought gas, and cooked with those expensive inputs.

This week, rice drops to ₦65,000 in the market.

Will customers now storm her shop and say she must sell a plate of rice at the new lower price immediately, even though the food she cooked came from last week’s expensive stock?

That is not business. That is punishment.

She has to recover the cost of what she already bought before the cheaper market price can reflect in her next batch. If she keeps selling below her cost because people are shouting, she will soon close shop, and the same people will start asking why food sellers are disappearing.

Same thing with Dangote Refinery.

If Dangote bought crude at a higher dollar cost, paid logistics, insurance, financing, operations, staff, power, maintenance and regulatory costs, you cannot expect him to automatically sell that batch at a huge loss because today’s market mood has changed.

Another example: a petrol station buys fuel at ₦900 per litre and fills its underground tank. Two days later, depot price drops to ₦820. Will you force the station to sell its old stock at ₦820 and swallow the loss? If it does that repeatedly, it will not have money to restock.

So yes, prices should come down when input costs fall.

But price reduction must follow the actual cost of supply, not social media emotion.

Business does not run on vibes. It runs on cost, cash flow and replacement value.

Gboss247:
Keep was your competition theory when oil prices were rising?

That could have given citizen multiple choices

FBIBOT:
That could have given citizen multiple choices

multiple choices to buy at the same price

greatdave:
Like what? Educate us!

Fuel prices are influenced not only by crude oil prices but also by factors such as the exchange rate, transportation and distribution costs, and fuel already purchased at higher prices.

As a result, marketers have not immediately reduced pump prices.

airsaylongcome:
Don’t try to be clever by half. When they purchased at say $60 and price rose to $100 did they clear the batch bought at $60 before raising prices?

If they bought at $60 and the price increases to $100, they'll have to increase their prices higher than $100 say $110.

To you it'll feel like they are now making $50 profit but the profit there is now $10. Abi if you sell your old stock at $70 finish when the cost price don increase to $100, you go come begin beg money to restock.

greatdave:
You're the ignorant one here. Why are they quick to raise the prices IMMEDIATELY crude price goes up without considering the "old stock"?!

They dont raise d price immediately.i dey buy fuel its never immediate.
U lack patience

ikechukz:
I'll just assume that most people posting here are not business people. Imagine if Dangote had bought for $100 and is even yet to refine that batch, he should automatically start selling at a huge loss to Nigerians to make them happy.

Th3y seem not to understand shit.price drop 2 weeks or less ago n u wan rampage on product.why not wait a month or more firdt before conclusion

ikechukz:
If they bought at $60 and the price increases to $100, they'll have to increase their prices higher than $100 say $110.

To you it'll feel like they are now making $50 profit but the profit there is now $10. Abi if you sell your old stock at $70 finish when the cost price don increase to $100, you go come begin beg money to restock.

They are making $50 profit on that stock. Profit is Selling Price minus Cost Price. If they bought at $60 and selling at $110, that’s a $50 profit. No Accountant on earth will use today’s cost price to calculate profit for product bought last week.

If you sell your old stock at $70, you either buy reduced stock or inject new capital. Assume say old stock finish 4pm and he go market and price increase immediately he go market, he go add money abi he go buy reduced stock?