₦airaland Forum

Do Not Underestimate the Obi – Kwankwaso (OK) Movement

Whether you agree with Peter Obi or not, don't make the mistake of dismissing the OK Movement, and here's why.

Let's look at the numbers.

During the 2023 presidential election, Peter Obi got 6.1 million votes nationwide. He won Lagos, Abuja, Edo, Rivers (unofficial), and all 5 SE states. He also dominated much of SS, and got over 2 million votes in the North.

Remember, this was Peter Obi's first presidential election, and he ran against two already established candidates: Tinubu, who had the backing of Buhari, and Atiku, who had a strong Northern base and PDP structure.

Now add Kwankwaso to the equation, and the calculation changes.

Kwankwaso got about 1.4 million votes in 2023. Most of those votes came from Kano. Most other voters saw the election as a 3-horse race and voted strategically.

An Obi – Kwankwaso ticket changes that calculation.

The Numbers

Obi + Kwankwaso: 7.5 million votes (PO 6.1m + Kwankwaso 1.4m)
Atiku + Amaechi: 7.2 million votes (Atiku 6.9m + Amaechi 300k).

I gave Amaechi 300k because his highest contribution to Buhari in 2019 was about 150K. I doubled that.

This puts the OK Movement ahead on paper.

The Biggest Unknown

The biggest unknown is Buhari's political base, which gave about 5 to 6 million votes to Tinubu in 2023.

Where do those votes go in 2027?

Do they remain with Tinubu?
Do they split between Tinubu, Obi – Kwankwaso, and Atiku?

Calling the numbers is very difficult at this stage because most of Buhari's 5 to 6 million votes came from the NW. Kwankwaso is from the NW. Atiku is established in the NW. Tinubu is the President.

From my estimates, the NW is our battleground for 2027. The region will ultimately decide the winner of the 2027 Presidential election.

One thing is certain: the Obi – Kwankwaso alliance is well positioned for 2027. Anyone dismissing the OK Movement is making a mistake.

Parachoko:
Peter Obi Will Never Become The President Of Nigeria

Show us with numbers how you came about this conclusion.

Atiku 6.9 million votes includes heavy votes from Osun, Delta, Lagos, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo and other very strong southern and middle belt states. Those votes were majorly influenced by the PDP governors and very strong PDP structures in those state.

In 2027, there is no single governor behind Atiku and the PDP structures have been merged into APC. So, we now have a stronger APC and a structure less ADC in the south and North Central. Atiku won’t get 10% in any southern or NC state. That’s about half of the 6.9 million votes. And guess what, majority of those votes will be going to APC. In Rivers state, Amaechi will not get 100k. Not with Wike and Fubara working together and Obi on the ballot. So, the 300k in unrealistic.

The sentiments in the north here where I live is that,Tinubu is going home.

And there is nothing anyone can do.

If he rigs and the number does not tally with what is on ground,he is then demanding for fight.

Mark this my word again,Tinubu is going home.

One mistake you are also making is using past results to forecast the future.

Obi ran under LP .....Trade Union party, Church sympathy.

Let us see where the new found love NDC will take him to.

Nice2023:
The sentiments in the north here where I live is that,Tinubu is going home.

And there is nothing anyone can do.

If he rigs and the number does not tally with what is on ground,he is then demanding for fight.

Mark this my word again,Tinubu is going home.

lol. Bring on the fight, we are waiting.

seunmsg:
Atiku 6.9 million votes includes heavy votes from Osun, Delta, Lagos, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Edo and other very strong southern and middle belt states. Those votes were majorly influenced by the PDP governors and very strong PDP structures in those state.

In 2027, there is no single governor behind Atiku and the PDP structures have been merged into APC. So, we now have a stronger APC and a structure less ADC in the south and North Central. Atiku won’t get 10% in any southern or NC state. That’s about half of the 6.9 million votes. And guess what, majority of those votes will be going to APC. In Rivers state, Amaechi will not get 100k. Not with Wike and Fubara working together and Obi on the ballot. So, the 300k in unrealistic.

You have an interesting argument with the governors.

Yes having the governors counts, but I have to dispute that because Peter Obi won 12 states in 2023 without any governor, including Nassarrawa, Plateau, and Lagos with APC governors.

In fact, Atiku’s running mate was the sitting governor in 2023 yet PO won the state.

You mean the PORK movement?

Nice2023:
The sentiments in the north here where I live is that,Tinubu is going home.

And there is nothing anyone can do.

If he rigs and the number does not tally with what is on ground,he is then demanding for fight.

Mark this my word again,Tinubu is going home.

We hear pass this before, even 1 porpular bingo here said he will kill himself if Apc win in the last election that’s it’s certain Labour Party will win, I want to believe it’s Labour Party that is in government now and the bingo have commited sucide??

An election that will held same day with 360 HOR seats and 109 SENATE seats.......show us the NDC and ADC candidates for these seats,they are even non exitent in majority of the states while APC on the other hand has candidates for every seat in every state.

Tinubu ran with atiku with the formidable pdp machinery behind him,obi benefitted from the protest votes and religious sentiments in 23......all 4 ran as equals but now one has all the power while the others have been faltering since 23,if that tells you nothing, you know nothing.

Any state tinubu doesn't win he will come a close 2nd while atiku cant get 25% across any southern state amd obi still cant effectively cross over in the core north where he performed woefully in the last elections.

The same reason you are cocksure obi will clear the SE is the same reason core northern voters will never leave 2 Muslim candidates for a xtian especially that with no link whatsoever with the north whether in terms of alignment, support,investment or bridge building in the past.

Get off that thing you are smoking or beter still change your supply,its making you loose it fast.

givedemwotowoto:
Show us with numbers how you came about this conclusion.

You are setting yourself up for another massive disappointment.

Giringori can never win any election in Nigeria.

I am very sure that he can't win Governor of Anambra state again if he is allowed to contest.

E sure me die that Giringori can not even win a senatorial position in Anambra .

Obi will win second or third!

givedemwotowoto:
Do Not Underestimate the Obi – Kwankwaso (OK) Movement

Even same kwakwaso is preparing for 2031 to run with Dickson. He left Tinubu alliance bcoz Tinubu didn't guarantee him a ticket for 2031. The over 1m votes of kwakwaso in Kano State is not sacrosanct bcoz a lot has happened in Kano.

Nice2023:
The sentiments in the north here where I live is that,Tinubu is going home.

And there is nothing anyone can do.

If he rigs and the number does not tally with what is on ground,he is then demanding for fight.

Mark this my word again,Tinubu is going home.

Tinubu has already won the election, na to announce am remain.

Your kinsman who was crying that elections are in January knows why he was crying.

Tell your brothers in East to start their protest early, e get why.

Parachoko:
Peter Obi Will Never Become The President Of Nigeria

What kind of campaign strategy is this exactly? A political ideology just rooted in hate?

I see this statement all over the place, "Obi can never rule Nigeria! Obi can never rule Nigeria!!! You're not promoting your candidate and neither are you telling us why we should support your candidate. But rather the ideology is just simply, "Obi can never rule Nigeria!"

How exactly can this hate make Nigeria a better place?

Note: Atiku will not get up to 5 million votes.
Reasons.
1. In all the southern states he cannot accumulate more than 1 million votes.
2. North Central also more than 1 million votes
3. He cannot secure more than 3 million votes in both North Central and North East.
Factors responsible for these figures.
1. No more Access to reasonable amounts of money.
2. As of today you have executive chairmen, vice chairmen that will influence voters decision because of their grassroot connection which will not favour Atiku.
3. Remember most of the Governors are very rich now to do political magic
4. No more cashless policy.
5. No major political support groups
6. Most of the students that have access to Nelfund will not vote for Atiku

Take am play first! OK ✅ all the way…

givedemwotowoto:
Do Not Underestimate the Obi – Kwankwaso (OK) Movement

Andrews Liver Salt, consume with lukewarm water.

Going by Peter Obi's losses in by-elections since the last Presidential elections alone, we can safely say that those 6 million votes will not hold, thanks largely to Obidients bad attitude.

1) Lagos state votes will collapse to about a quarter of 2023.

2) Ẹdo state, so called Obidient headquarters, before our father in the big house (gha tọ kpẹre baba) became a target for Obidients of a certain tribe. That vote will collapse hugely to about a tenth.

3) Aligbo, with APGA and APC now in bed with each other, those high percentages, over 85%, from 2023, will most likely be halved or reduced to three quarters at the most.

I myself am voting APGA this time round though a seemingly wasted vote but I can't vote APC, not until Prof Soludo or Bianca is their presidential candidate.

These ones are sha flogging a dead horse.

When you've insulted and bullied, rather than educate and prove your stance to people that can vote for your candidate, you've already underestimated them yourself.

givedemwotowoto:
You have an interesting argument with the governors.

Yes having the governors counts, but I have to dispute that because Peter Obi won 12 states in 2023 without any governor, including Nassarrawa, Plateau, and Lagos with APC governors.

In fact, Atiku’s running mate was the sitting governor in 2023 yet PO won the state.

2023 was a protest vote against APC.

Today's APC is not Buhari's APC.

Today's APC under Tinubu has swallowed all that mattered in the PDP, has consolidated it's hold in the SS , NC and the SW.

Even the SE now has strong party support for Tinubu.

The NW and NE are also having strong political structures for the APC.

How do you even consider that Atiku's ADC can even stand a chance in the core north talk less of Obi and his PORK mushroom party NDC?

The next elections will be so devastating to both Atiku and Obi that they will not even know how to challenge it at the PET.

Tinubu is going to bury both Atiku and Obi's careers come next year.

As for Kwankwaso, his alliance with Obi has eroded almost all his grassroot support in Kano and his Kwankwassai movement have migrated to support the current governor who is now in the APC.

I don't know why you guys still think in static mode not understanding that a day in politics is like a year and since the last elections, centuries worth of realignment have occured.

Even Atiku is not attracting the strong northern base support he enjoyed in the last elections . Saraki has dumped him. And every other second republic heir politician from the north (the real northern mafia) are not joining him in his ADC.

If Atiku is not showing strong form, is it the content creator Obi that has since to himself being exposed and demystified to be the real con artiste that will challenge Tinubu ?

Well, it's good that you are only looking at upsets and not necessarily winning the elections .

But have it in the back of your mind that Obi will fail more woefully this time around and whatever victory he will record will be limited to his SE but he won't get the amount of near 100% votes there. States like Anambra, Enugu and Ebonyi will give Tinubu the minimum 25% .

Outside the SE, Obi will not record up to the minimum 25% and in places like the NW, and SW he will do so badly.

obailala:
What kind of campaign strategy is this exactly? A political ideology just rooted in hate?

I see this statement all over the place, "Obi can never rule Nigeria! Obi can never rule Nigeria!!! You're not promoting your candidate and neither are you telling us why we should support your candidate. But rather the ideology is just simply, "Obi can never rule Nigeria!"

How exactly can this hate make Nigeria a better place?

In law when an action is deemed null & void ab initio, it is worthless going into the details.

So the narrative being promoted is simple, "Obi can never rule Nigeria!" .

With Tinubu sitting in Aso Rock, it's a bit tricky judging the outcome of 2027 based on the performance of 2023.

While the other top candidates would likely retain their support base, Tinubu by virtue of his nature, character and presence in Aso Rock has earned about 4 additional key supporters:
1. INEC
2. JUDICIARY
3. ARMED FORCES
4. CBN

2027 election might just be the first in Nigeria's history where the number of votes may surpass the number of registered voters. No absurdity is beyond Tinubu!

Only thing that can change this is if Nigerians come out in record numbers to vote and defend their votes. So the key strategy of APC in 2027 would be to vehemently discourage people from coming out to vote.

Nice2023:
The sentiments in the north here where I live is that,Tinubu is going home.

And there is nothing anyone can do.

If he rigs and the number does not tally with what is on ground,he is then demanding for fight.

Mark this my word again,Tinubu is going home.

Please note, I honestly don't think Tinubu and his gang should be our president, I however do not genuinely see a better candidate in the rest of the pack.

He is just like a "one-eye man" in the land of the blind.

As to the sentiment in the North, you are merely expressing your biased opinion, the north has no sentiment.

The power brokers determine the direction of votes not sentiment.

Unlike in the south, the northerners vote according to the direction of their leaders.

For those who know him very well, Tinubu is not sleeping and only God can stop him.

Weaponization of poverty shows more people will vote for other reasons aside sentiment..An hungry man is not sentimental.

Forget the cities, the real votes are in the hinterlands.

And by the way, Obi is unlikely to get 6million votes again because he has not been able to manage the success of 2023 election. Both within and outside southeastern states. The governors have perfected their plans.

Like I said, vote buying is more sophisticated now. It is done through associations, community leaders, religious institutions etc.

Many will be shocked by the results.



We will wait

PORK movement.

Yeah I don't eat pork..

givedemwotowoto:
You have an interesting argument with the governors.

Yes having the governors counts, but I have to dispute that because Peter Obi won 12 states in 2023 without any governor, including Nassarrawa, Plateau, and Lagos with APC governors.

In fact, Atiku’s running mate was the sitting governor in 2023 yet PO won the state.

Winning a state is irrelevant in the presidential ambition. What matters is to get the highest numbers of valid votes and get the required 25% in 2/3 of states. If you can’t meet the constitutional requirement, you’re just wasting your time irrespective of the numbers of states won.

So, serious candidates don’t bother about how to win a state but how to get the maximum votes possible in that particular state.

obailala:
What kind of campaign strategy is this exactly?

Nah from Obidients I learn the strategy from o

I doubt you ever called out any of your brothers who were fond of saying "Tinubu Will Never Become The President Of Nigeria"

obailala:
With Tinubu sitting in Aso Rock, it's a bit tricky judging the outcome of 2027 based on the performance of 2023.

While the other top candidates would likely retain their support base, Tinubu by virtue of his nature, character and presence in Aso Rock has earned about 4 additional key supporters:
1. INEC
2. JUDICIARY
3. ARMED FORCES
4. CBN

2027 election might just be the first in Nigeria's history where the number of votes may surpass the number of registered voters. No absurdity is beyond Tinubu!

Only thing that can change this is if Nigerians come out in record numbers to vote and defend their votes. So the key strategy of APC in 2027 would be to vehemently discourage people from coming out to vote.

You remind me of the 2007 election that was held by Maurice Iwu led INEC

Maurice Iwu was declaring the election results in Abuja while voting was still ongoing in several part of Nigeria

seunmsg:
lol. Bring on the fight, we are waiting.

You are not part of those they’re calling to fight. You can’t fight.

Igboho ran for his dear life when Buhari came after him.