₦airaland Forum

As an Osun indigene, I have no horse in this race.

As far as I am concerned, this is largely an internal APC family affair.

Governor Ademola Adeleke could easily have emerged from the APC had political circumstances unfolded differently as was suggested by President Tinubu.

If former Governor Gboyega Oyetola believes the APC has the superior candidate, organisation and message, then it should prove that at the ballot box—not through endless pre-election controversies.

After all, a lion that is confident of bringing down the antelope does not waste time chasing shadows—it chases the prey.

Let the election be won by persuasion, organisation and votes. That is how democracies grow.

Whoever wins the governorship election should do so fairly and peacefully. My interest is not in which party wins, but in ensuring that the process commands public confidence.

That is why I believe the Inspector-General of Police deserves commendation for redeploying the Osun State Commissioner of Police.

This is not an indictment of Commissioner Ibrahim Gotan.

Rather, it is an acknowledgment of a difficult reality in election policing: once one of the two principal political camps loses confidence in the neutrality of the referee—whether rightly or wrongly—the referee's effectiveness is significantly diminished.

Football provides a useful analogy. A referee may make every decision according to the rules, but if one team becomes convinced that he is biased, every whistle thereafter becomes another source of controversy. At that point, replacing the referee protects the credibility of the match, not because he has been found guilty of misconduct, but because public confidence is itself part of justice.

The IGP appears to have recognised this principle.

With the Osun governorship election only weeks away, restoring confidence in the neutrality of the police is arguably more important than insisting on the continued deployment of any individual officer.

That is mature institutional leadership.

As for the election itself, I honestly do not know whether the APC will win. In truth, I am not even sure former Governor Gboyega Oyetola has managed some of the critical political relationships required for victory. Many observers still point to the handling of the Ife political bloc and the fallout involving Senator Iyiola Omisore as examples of opportunities that were not optimally managed.

Ultimately, elections are won not only by party popularity but also by coalition-building, relationship management and public trust.

For now, the priority should be simple: let Osun vote in peace, let every vote count, and let the winner emerge from a process that both winners and losers can respect.

In the end, the greatest victory on August 15 will not belong to any political party. It will belong to democracy itself.

Adeleke already made peace with president Tinubu, likely possible it was president Tinubu that advised Oyetola to forget about recontesting again.

Why then is he still involved heavily in the election when he won't be on the ballot. For transferring the CP of the state, president Tinubu might have reached a conclusion about Oyetola's position as a minister

It will be so hard for the APC to win in Osun

Adeleke have the upper hand

Oyetola is still mourning his loss. It is over for him. The other one was regretting leaving his boss; he forgot he made a jest of him wearing Pampers

Does he still wear Pampers?

It's like you APC guys up there have insider information about the upcoming election in Osun State.

helinues:
Adeleke already made peace with president Tinubu, likely possible it was president Tinubu that advised Oyetola to forget about recontesting again.

Why then is he still involved heavily in the election when he won't be on the ballot. For transferring the CP of the state, president Tinubu might have reached a conclusion about Oyetola's position as a minister

My concern is if Oyetola and the Osun APC establishment resisted Adeleke’s entry to APC , are they now providing the leadership required to defeat him electorally?

The governor did not reject President Tinubu’s invitation to join APC, but was blocked by Oyetola and Osun APC.

Now, if you block an incumbent governor from entering your party, you must have a serious alternative strategy.

You must unite your house, manage bruised egos, pacify old power centres, energise weak blocs, and present a candidate capable of defeating the same governor you refused to absorb.

But from the feedback am getting from key blocs, especially the Ijesa bloc — Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Atakumosa East, Atakumosa West, Obokun and Oriade — the signals are not encouraging. This is dangerous because Ijesa was not an APC fortress in 2022. In fact, the bloc gave Adeleke/PDP a net advantage of about 6,807 votes in 2022.
If APC cannot reverse that in 2026, it has already failed one of the major swing tests.

The Ife bloc is also critical: Ife East, Ife Central, Ife North and Ife South. APC narrowly won the bloc in 2022 by about 8,600 votes, but that advantage was not deep enough to be taken for granted. If the Omisore matter is not handled with maturity, Ife can become dicey. Omisore may not win an election alone today, but in a tight Osun election, a wounded Omisore network can damage margins, demobilise loyalists or quietly frustrate APC’s local coordination.

This is what Oyetola should have understood.

voortrekker966:
It's like you APC guys up there have insider information about the upcoming election in Osun State.

Here is my own honest projection.

Based on 2022 results alone, Adeleke begins as the candidate to beat because his 2022 margin was built on strong Ede dominance, Osogbo swing, Ijesa advantage and broad enough spread.

APC’s path to victory is clear but difficult:

It must cut Adeleke’s Ede/Egbedore/Ejigbo margin.

It must win Irewole/Ikire-Apomu-Gbongan decisively.

It must hold Ife and expand its margin there.

It must flip Ijesa or at least neutralise it.

It must recover Osogbo/Olorunda.

It must prevent ADC/Aregbesola from eating too deeply into the old progressive vote.

Adeleke’s path is also clear:

Hold Ede massively.

Retain Osogbo/Olorunda.

Keep Ijesa close or positive.

Prevent Oyebamiji from turning Irewole into a large APC engine.

Exploit APC/Aregbesola/ADC divisions.

Kaa4:
Oyetola is still mourning his loss. It is over for him. The other one was regretting leaving his boss; he forgot he made a jest of him wearing Pampers

Does he still wear Pampers?

Honestly , Oyetola is falling my hand. He seems he has problem managing relationships.

Leadership is not only about blocking Adeleke. Leadership is about building the machine that can defeat Adeleke after blocking him.

If APC had allowed Adeleke to enter, the party would have avoided a bruising governorship war and possibly secured Osun early for Tinubu’s 2027 project.

But if Oyetola and the OSUN APC rejected that route because it believed Adeleke was beatable, then it must now prove seriousness on the field.

You cannot reject political absorption and then fail at electoral confrontation.

You cannot block the incumbent and then run a lazy campaign.

Parachoko:
It will be so hard for the APC to win in Osun

Adeleke have the upper hand

As things stand, the 2026 Osun election may expose whether Oyetola is still a real commander of Osun APC or merely a former governor with federal title but weakened local grip.

The warning is simple: if Oyetola stopped Adeleke from entering APC, then Oyetola must help APC defeat Adeleke.

Anything less will be political self-sabotage by Oyetola and the party national secretary.

Your opening sanctimony to Oyetola would have also served to Tinubu when he was hounding the opposition, stiffling dissent, declaring state of emergencies in non-compliant states, imposing local government "autonomy" in only Osun state for obvious reasons, incarcerating opposition figureheads and using state institutions against opponents all in a bid to make Nigeria a one-party state but you were nowhere to be found. Is it any surprise that Oyetola is behaving like his nephew? Osun is the only state where the defection of a sitting governor was rejected without any consequence. Tanduje lost his sit as chairman because of that while others like Barth Nnaji lost their ministerial seat and are currently being hounded by the ICPC. Favouritism is only for his tribesman and immediate relatives.

voortrekker966:
It's like you APC guys up there have insider information about the upcoming election in Osun State.

I am not on ground. i am based in Abuja , but i know that the answer to these five questions will determine the outcome of this coming election.
Question 1: Can Adeleke maintain his Ede home margin?
If yes, he starts with a major advantage.

Question 2: Can APC expand Oyebamiji’s Irewole/Ikire home-area margin?
If APC only wins this bloc narrowly, it is not enough.

Question 3: Who wins Osogbo/Olorunda?
This is the urban state-capital test. Adeleke won it in 2022. APC needs a serious reversal.

Question 4: Does Ijesa remain PDP/Accord-leaning or flip APC because of elite defections?
This may be the most decisive swing belt.

Question 5: Where does ADC/Aregbesola take votes from?
If ADC drains APC progressives, Adeleke benefits. If ADC drains anti-incumbent protest votes, APC benefits.

Osun indigenes- especially those of you on ground, have answers to these questions?

Parachoko:
It will be so hard for the APC to win in Osun

Adeleke have the upper hand

Adeleke that is struggling for a foothold in Accord doesn't have any upper hand.

AMINDA:
Your opening sanctimony to Oyetola would have also served to Tinubu when he was hounding the opposition, stiffling dissent, declaring state of emergencies in non-compliant states, imposing local government "autonomy" in only Osun state for obvious reasons, incarcerating opposition figureheads and using state institutions against opponents all in a bid to make Nigeria a one-party state but you were nowhere to be found. Is it any surprise that Oyetola is behaving like his nephew? Osun is the only state where the defection of a sitting governor was rejected without any consequence. Tanduje lost his sit as chairman because of that while others like Barth Nnaji lost their ministerial seat and are currently being hounded by the ICPC. Favouritism is only for his tribesman and immediate relatives.

This is a long accusation built on several false or unsupported premises.

First, Tinubu did not declare states of emergency in multiple “non-compliant states.” He declared one emergency—in Rivers State—amid a paralysis between the governor and legislature and attacks on critical oil infrastructure.

Second, local-government autonomy was not invented for Osun. The Supreme Court’s judgment applied to all 774 local governments nationwide, and Tinubu subsequently demanded nationwide compliance. Osun became a special dispute because rival APC and PDP councils were claiming authority. In fact, the Supreme Court later faulted the Federal Government for withholding Osun’s funds, although it struck out the state’s case on procedural grounds. That hardly supports the picture of a President exercising unchecked personal power.

Third, where is the evidence that Ganduje lost the APC chairmanship because Adeleke’s defection was rejected? Ganduje formally cited health concerns when he resigned on June 27, 2025.

Fourth, you have confused Barth Nnaji with Uche Nnaji. Barth Nnaji was Jonathan’s former power minister. Uche Nnaji was Tinubu’s own Minister of Innovation, Science and Technology. He resigned after certificate-forgery allegations and was later arrested and charged by the ICPC. How does prosecuting Tinubu’s own former minister prove favouritism toward relatives and tribesmen? It proves precisely the opposite.

Finally, saying opposition figures are being “incarcerated” without naming them, the allegations against them, the courts involved or their bail proceedings is not evidence—it is allegation by volume.

What you have done is throwing every rumour into one political blender and calling the result evidence.

CharlesCNG:
As things stand, the 2026 Osun election may expose whether Oyetola is still a real commander of Osun APC or merely a former governor with federal title but weakened local grip.

The warning is simple: if Oyetola stopped Adeleke from entering APC, then Oyetola must help APC defeat Adeleke.

Anything less will be political self-sabotage by Oyetola and the party national secretary.

I think the APC in Osun should have let him in.

APC would have become very strong in Osun by now with Adeleke in the Party.

Osun is a very important state in the Presidential election

aswani:
Adeleke that is struggling for a foothold in Accord doesn't have any upper hand.

I want the APC to win, but I won't be underestimating Adeleke

Parachoko:
I want the APC to win, but I won't be underestimating Adeleke

I don't see how Adeleke that is constantly fire fighting within Accord has a stable enough base to take on the well oiled APC machine but we shall see.

Parachoko:
I think the APC in Osun should have let him in.

APC would have become very strong in Osun by now with Adeleke in the Party.

Osun is a very important state in the Presidential election

You are right there

APC messed up not allowing Adeleke to join the party

Parachoko:
I want the APC to win, but I won't be underestimating Adeleke

Exactly. It is 50 50