₦airaland Forum

Atiku Abubakar frequently presents the economic achievements of the Obasanjo administration as evidence of what he personally can deliver. The historical record is more complicated.

Atiku deserves some credit. As vice-president, he chaired the National Economic Council and initially supervised the National Council on Privatisation and the Bureau of Public Enterprises. He was an influential member of Obasanjo’s first-term government.

But influence is not sole authorship.

Atiku did not head the celebrated Economic Management Team established in 2003. President Obasanjo chaired it, while Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala led much of its work.
Many achievements Atiku now cites—including debt relief, banking consolidation and major fiscal reforms—came during Obasanjo’s second term, when their relationship had deteriorated and Atiku had become increasingly marginalised within the administration.

Atiku cannot therefore collect the entire administration’s report card as though Obasanjo, Okonjo-Iweala, Charles Soludo, Oby Ezekwesili, El-Rufai and other officials were merely spectators.

There is also an inconvenient contradiction.

When privatisation is praised, Atiku claims ownership because he supervised it. When controversial sales, political interference and failed transactions are mentioned, responsibility suddenly becomes collective and institutional.

He cannot have it both ways.

If supervision entitles him to the successes, it also exposes him to legitimate questions about the failures and allegations surrounding that programme.

The William Jefferson scandal must equally be discussed accurately. The FBI found $90,000 in the American congressman’s freezer from money allegedly intended to influence an African official in a Nigerian business deal. Atiku was mentioned in the prosecution’s case, but he was neither charged nor convicted, and prosecutors acknowledged that the money was apparently never delivered to him.

The fair conclusion is simple: Atiku played a meaningful role in Obasanjo’s early administration, but he was neither the sole architect nor the dominant driver of its entire economic success.

He cannot wear Obasanjo’s medals while pretending the mud from that same administration belongs entirely to somebody else.

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Cannot be said better. My problem are with people that portray atiku as solely responsible especially for the failures of obj's government when it's convenient for obvious political reasons.


Atiku is part of the success and failure of that government as a collective participant and not the sole authority responsible for decisions of the administration.


Another thing is the issue of corruption which atiku has never been charged or convicted in any court of law but which he is often and frequently been accused of... again for obvious political reasons.


xxxxxxx

brain54:
:::


Cannot be said better. My problem are with people that portray atiku as solely responsible especially for the failures of obj's government when it's convenient for obvious political reasons.


Atiku is part of the success and failure of that government as a collective participant and not the sole authority responsible for decisions of the administration.


Another thing is the issue of corruption which atiku has never been charged or convicted in any court of law but which he is often and frequently been accused of... again for obvious political reasons.


xxxxxxx

ATIKU: THE PERPETUAL POLITICAL CASH COW. by CharlesCNG.

One increasingly gets the impression that some of the politicians crowding around Atiku Abubakar are less interested in a realistic pathway to victory than in the financial opportunities surrounding another presidential campaign.

Dino Melaye, Dele Momodu, Kenneth Okonkwo and others may genuinely believe in Atiku’s candidacy, but they must explain the electoral arithmetic.

Where exactly is Atiku’s road to Aso Rock?

He risks losing significant portions of the North to the APC, Kwankwaso’s movement and other regional interests. In the South, his position is even weaker. Many of the governors, legislators, local organisers and financial backers who powered the PDP campaign in 2023 have either joined the APC, become politically inactive or aligned elsewhere.

Atiku has also left the PDP—the established nationwide platform he used in 2023—for the ADC. Yet he has not carried anything resembling the full PDP machinery with him. Even in Adamawa, his home state, the governor, leading legislators and much of the existing structure have not simply followed him wholesale into his new vehicle.

So what remains?

A familiar candidate, a circle of enthusiastic media defenders and another expensive presidential campaign.

This is why critics increasingly suspect that some people around Atiku see him as a political ATM: praise the ambition, encourage another contest, secure campaign appointments and keep the machinery running—whether or not victory is realistically achievable.

Atiku has contested repeatedly, spent enormously and repeatedly fallen short. By 2027, he will be approaching what may be his final serious presidential attempt.

That makes him valuable to political opportunists.

The harsh truth is that some of those shouting loudest may already know the electoral mountain is almost impossible to climb. But when a perpetual political cash cow is preparing for one last milking season, the professional praise singers will always arrive early with their buckets.

I still don't see Atiku’s pathway to victory in 2027

Jokay07:
I still don't see Atiku’s pathway to victory in 2027

You are absolutely right. And it is so easy to see.

He has left the nationwide PDP structure that carried him in 2019 and 2023 for an ADC still wrestling with internal factions and legal disputes. Peter Obi and Kwankwaso are pursuing separate ambitions, while the ruling APC retains most governors and federal lawmakers. Atiku may have experience and loyal supporters, but experience is not a pathway; he must show where the additional governors, structures and millions of new votes will come from.

Another obstacle is the politics of zoning.
Whatever anyone's personal view, a significant section of the country still believes the presidency should remain in the South until President Tinubu completes what they regard as the South's eight-year turn. That sentiment has not disappeared; if anything, it remains one of the major political headwinds confronting Atiku.

CharlesCNG:
You are absolutely right. And it is so easy to see.

He has left the nationwide PDP structure that carried him in 2019 and 2023 for an ADC still wrestling with internal factions and legal disputes. Peter Obi and Kwankwaso are pursuing separate ambitions, while the ruling APC retains most governors and federal lawmakers. Atiku may have experience and loyal supporters, but experience is not a pathway; he must show where the additional governors, structures and millions of new votes will come from.

Another obstacle is the politics of zoning.
Whatever anyone's personal view, a significant section of the country still believes the presidency should remain in the South until President Tinubu completes what they regard as the South's eight-year turn. That sentiment has not disappeared; if anything, it remains one of the major political headwinds confronting Atiku.

APC had 21 state governors in 2023 but Tinubu only "won" 12 states and half of those 12 were not APC-governed states. You lot exaggerate this "structure" so much while ignoring the voting sentiments that is currently against the incumbent. Don't think every governor will be willing to shed their people's blood to deliver Tinubu by all means as was done in Rivers. When you voted Tinubu in 2023, was it because your governor told you to? If your governor had decamped and asked you to vote another candidate, would you have done so? In 2023, Atiku won more APC-controlled states than he did PDP states. The margins will only be better come 2027 in the states where the votes actually are. If the election takes a "turn of the South" direction, Tinubu will still not benefit from this because the South didn't vote for him in 2023 and still won't. Obi is the face of the South, not Tinubu and that has not changed. It was the North that made Tinubu president.

AMINDA:
APC had 21 state governors in 2023 but Tinubu only "won" 12 states and half of those 12 were not APC-governed states. You lot exaggerate this "structure" so much while ignoring the voting sentiments that is currently against the incumbent. Don't think every governor will be willing to shed their people's blood to deliver Tinubu by all means as was done in Rivers. When you voted Tinubu in 2023, was it because your governor told you to? If your governor had decamped and asked you to vote another candidate, would you have done so? In 2023, Atiku won more APC-controlled states than he did PDP states. The margins will only be better come 2027 in the states where the votes actually are. If the election takes a "turn of the South" direction, Tinubu will still not benefit from this because the South didn't vote for him in 2023 and still won't. Obi is the face of the South, not Tinubu and that has not changed. It was the North that made Tinubu president.

Good Morning , my friend . Incidentally you and i have had this discussion in this same forum severally. My position has not changed.
Here is my response to you this time and i want to take them one by one.

Your argument misunderstands what political structure means.

1. Yes, APC had 21 governors before the 2023 election.

But nobody claims a governor can simply order every resident of his state to vote for a candidate. Structure is influence, not ownership.

It provides party agents, candidates, campaign offices, funding, local networks, mobilisation and protection of votes. Sentiment can sometimes overpower it, as happened in several states such as delta , edo , cross rivers etc in 2023-
Conversely , ask yourself, how did Atiku win Osun , Akwa ibom and Bayelsa- that shows structure matters.

2. In fact, 2023 proves that structure matters.

Tinubu lost Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Lagos and several APC-controlled states, yet he still collected:

Kano: 517,341
Katsina: 482,283 lost by only 6,000 votes
Jigawa: 421,390 came a very close second.
Kaduna: 399,293
Niger: 375,183

Those large second-place totals were not produced by fresh air. They came from organisation, alliances and an established party network.

Tinubu did not need to win every state. He needed to avoid collapsing in states he lost..

That is structure.

AMINDA:
APC had 21 state governors in 2023 but Tinubu only "won" 12 states and half of those 12 were not APC-governed states. You lot exaggerate this "structure" so much while ignoring the voting sentiments that is currently against the incumbent. Don't think every governor will be willing to shed their people's blood to deliver Tinubu by all means as was done in Rivers. When you voted Tinubu in 2023, was it because your governor told you to? If your governor had decamped and asked you to vote another candidate, would you have done so? In 2023, Atiku won more APC-controlled states than he did PDP states. The margins will only be better come 2027 in the states where the votes actually are. If the election takes a "turn of the South" direction, Tinubu will still not benefit from this because the South didn't vote for him in 2023 and still won't. Obi is the face of the South, not Tinubu and that has not changed. It was the North that made Tinubu president.

The claim that the South rejected Tinubu is exaggerated.

Across the 17 southern states:

Obi: 4,010,151
Tinubu: 3,206,734

Obi’s advantage was about 803,000, not an obliteration.

Outside the South-East, Tinubu actually defeated Obi in the South:

Tinubu: 3,079,364
Obi: 2,057,153

Tinubu also won five southern states—Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo and Rivers—not merely four Yoruba states.

Calling Obi “the face of the South” erases millions of southern voters who chose Tinubu, Atiku or other candidates.

AMINDA:
APC had 21 state governors in 2023 but Tinubu only "won" 12 states and half of those 12 were not APC-governed states. You lot exaggerate this "structure" so much while ignoring the voting sentiments that is currently against the incumbent. Don't think every governor will be willing to shed their people's blood to deliver Tinubu by all means as was done in Rivers. When you voted Tinubu in 2023, was it because your governor told you to? If your governor had decamped and asked you to vote another candidate, would you have done so? In 2023, Atiku won more APC-controlled states than he did PDP states. The margins will only be better come 2027 in the states where the votes actually are. If the election takes a "turn of the South" direction, Tinubu will still not benefit from this because the South didn't vote for him in 2023 and still won't. Obi is the face of the South, not Tinubu and that has not changed. It was the North that made Tinubu president.

4. The 2015 comparison is apples and oranges.

Before 2015, Buhari already possessed a formidable northern vote bank. In 2011, running on the relatively limited CPC platform, he received 12,214,853 votes and won 13 states.

What he lacked was southern reach and a broader coalition.

The APC supplied precisely that: Buhari’s CPC base, Tinubu’s ACN South-West structure, the ANPP network and defecting PDP governors and politicians were merged into one party behind one presidential candidate.

That was not merely public anger against Jonathan.

It was anger organised into a single national vehicle.

5. Where is the equivalent united opposition today?

Atiku no longer controls the PDP machinery and governors that supported him in 2023. He has moved to the ADC, while Obi and Kwankwaso have taken another route.

The opposition that defeated Jonathan in 2015 merged before confronting him.

Today’s opposition is dividing while confronting Tinubu.

That is the fundamental difference.

Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso separately accumulated over 14 million votes in 2023. But votes cannot simply be added together like beans in a market bowl. Their supporters, regional interests and ambitions are not automatically transferable.

AMINDA:
APC had 21 state governors in 2023 but Tinubu only "won" 12 states and half of those 12 were not APC-governed states. You lot exaggerate this "structure" so much while ignoring the voting sentiments that is currently against the incumbent. Don't think every governor will be willing to shed their people's blood to deliver Tinubu by all means as was done in Rivers. When you voted Tinubu in 2023, was it because your governor told you to? If your governor had decamped and asked you to vote another candidate, would you have done so? In 2023, Atiku won more APC-controlled states than he did PDP states. The margins will only be better come 2027 in the states where the votes actually are. If the election takes a "turn of the South" direction, Tinubu will still not benefit from this because the South didn't vote for him in 2023 and still won't. Obi is the face of the South, not Tinubu and that has not changed. It was the North that made Tinubu president.

Governors are not magicians, but they are not decorative furniture either.

Would I change my vote simply because my governor defected? Not necessarily.

But elections are not decided by one voter’s independence. They are decided by millions of voters operating within local political networks.

Governors influence elected officials, traditional alliances, ward executives, campaign resources, polling agents and turnout. A governor may not personally command your thumb, but he can alter the political environment surrounding it.
Governors influence elected officials, traditional alliances, ward executives, campaign resources, polling agents and turnout.

A governor may not personally command your thumb, but he can alter the political environment surrounding it.

AMINDA:
APC had 21 state governors in 2023 but Tinubu only "won" 12 states and half of those 12 were not APC-governed states. You lot exaggerate this "structure" so much while ignoring the voting sentiments that is currently against the incumbent. Don't think every governor will be willing to shed their people's blood to deliver Tinubu by all means as was done in Rivers. When you voted Tinubu in 2023, was it because your governor told you to? If your governor had decamped and asked you to vote another candidate, would you have done so? In 2023, Atiku won more APC-controlled states than he did PDP states. The margins will only be better come 2027 in the states where the votes actually are. If the election takes a "turn of the South" direction, Tinubu will still not benefit from this because the South didn't vote for him in 2023 and still won't. Obi is the face of the South, not Tinubu and that has not changed. It was the North that made Tinubu president.

Allegations of violence do not answer the arithmetic.**

Every credible allegation of electoral violence should be investigated and condemned, regardless of party.

But one cannot dismiss every APC victory as coercion and treat every opposition victory as pure democracy. That is not analysis; it is partisan convenience.

The real lesson of 2023 is not that governors are useless.

It is that structure is powerful but not absolute—and sentiment is powerful but must still be organised.

In 2015, Buhari brought a massive personal vote bank into a united opposition.

In 2027, Tinubu enters as an incumbent commanding a consolidated ruling party, while Atiku’s former structure has fractured and the opposition remains divided.

That is why 2015 cannot simply be photocopied and renamed 2027.

Buhari entered 2015 with twelve million votes and one united vehicle.

Today’s opposition has several drivers still fighting over the steering wheel.