ejimatic:
Please find below the analysis of 2022 OSUN election as reported by the Tributne online.
From my observation,I am yet to see how Adeleke will escape defeat tomorrow:
#OsunDecides2026: Top 10 LGAs with the highest votes in 2022
As Osun State prepares for Saturday’s governorship election in less than 24 hours, attention is once again turning to the voting patterns that shaped the state’s last gubernatorial contest.
The upcoming poll is expected to feature a closely watched battle among incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke, who is contesting under the platform of the Accord Party; All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Bola Oyebamiji; and African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate Najeem Salam.
With voters set to return to the polls, the results of the 2022 governorship election offer insights into the local government areas (LGAs) that proved most influential in determining the outcome of the last contest.
The 2022 Osun State governorship election was held on 16 July 2022, with 15 candidates contesting under different political parties. However, the race was largely dominated by the then Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Ademola Adeleke, and the then incumbent governor, Adegboyega Oyetola of the APC.
At the conclusion of voting across the state’s 30 local government areas, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Adeleke the winner after he secured 403,371 votes, representing 50.14 per cent of the total valid votes cast. His closest rival, Oyetola, polled 375,027 votes, accounting for 46.62 per cent, while the remaining 13 candidates collectively garnered 26,052 votes, representing 3.24 per cent. In total, 804,450 valid votes were recorded in the election.
While every local government area contributed to the final result, some wielded greater influence because of the sheer volume of votes they produced. An analysis of the 2022 results shows that the 10 highest-voting LGAs delivered hundreds of thousands of ballots and were divided between Adeleke and Oyetola.
1. Osogbo
Osogbo, the Osun State capital in Osun Central Senatorial District, recorded the highest number of valid votes in the election with 54,997 votes. Adeleke won the LGA with 30,401 votes, while Oyetola secured 22,952 votes. Other candidates collectively polled 1,644 votes.
2. Olorunda
Following closely behind Osogbo is Olorunda, which is also in Osun Central Senatorial District. The LGA ranked second with 41,187 valid votes. Adeleke maintained his advantage in the area after polling 21,350 votes, ahead of Oyetola’s 18,709 votes. The remaining candidates received a combined 1,128 votes.
3. Ife East
Located in Osun East Senatorial District, Ife East came third with 39,125 valid votes. The LGA favoured Oyetola, who secured 19,353 votes against Adeleke’s 18,071 votes, while other candidates garnered 1,701 votes.
4. Iwo
Iwo, one of the major LGAs in Osun West Senatorial District, produced 35,634 valid votes. Oyetola narrowly emerged ahead with 17,421 votes, while Adeleke polled 16,914 votes. Other candidates received 1,299 votes.
5. Ifelodun
Rounding out the top five is Ifelodun in Osun Central Senatorial District, which recorded 34,036 valid votes. Adeleke won the area with 17,107 votes, edging Oyetola, who secured 16,068 votes. The remaining candidates polled 861 votes.
6. Ede North
Ede North, Adeleke’s home base in Osun West Senatorial District, generated 34,113 valid votes. It delivered one of the PDP candidate’s strongest performances, with Adeleke polling 23,931 votes against Oyetola’s 9,603 votes. Other candidates collectively secured 579 votes.
7. Ejigbo
Also in Osun West Senatorial District, Ejigbo recorded 33,329 valid votes. Adeleke won the LGA with 18,065 votes, while Oyetola polled 14,355 votes. Other candidates received 909 votes.
8. Irewole
Irewole, another major voting centre in Osun West Senatorial District, produced 33,315 valid votes. Oyetola emerged victorious in the area with 18,198 votes, compared to Adeleke’s 14,216 votes. Other candidates collectively secured 901 votes.
9. Ife Central
At number nine is Ife Central in Osun East Senatorial District, which recorded 32,544 valid votes. Oyetola won the LGA with 17,880 votes, while Adeleke secured 13,532 votes. Other candidates polled 1,132 votes.
10. Oriade
Completing the list is Oriade, also in Osun East Senatorial District, with 30,941 valid votes. Adeleke secured victory in the area after polling 15,947 votes, while Oyetola garnered 14,189 votes. Other candidates received a combined 805 votes.
Together, the 10 highest-voting LGAs produced 369,221 valid votes, accounting for about 46 per cent of the 804,450 valid votes recorded across Osun State in the 2022 governorship election.
Of the 10 LGAs that produced the highest number of valid votes in the 2022 election, Adeleke won six, while Oyetola emerged victorious in four. As Osun voters prepare for another governorship contest on Saturday, these high-voting LGAs are expected to once again attract close attention from political parties because of their potential influence on the final outcome.
Conclusion: In my opinion,if the above were the results in 2022, Adeleke will suffer defeat with the acceptability of APC candidate in many LGAs of Osun State tomorrow.
" no doubt Adeleke's defeat is imminent, he's a goner. |
