₦airaland Forum

contigiency:
The 2027 presidential election is increasingly shaping up as a three-way contest between Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar. But the more I examine the emerging political structure, the more I believe that one of the most important features of the election may be this:

Atiku Abubakar remaining in the race could substantially improve Peter Obi's chances of defeating Bola Tinubu.

This may sound counterintuitive. After all, Atiku remains one of Nigeria's most experienced politicians and has a strong following, particularly in the North. But elections are ultimately about the distribution of votes, not simply the popularity of individual candidates.

Atiku's northern strength may work against Tinubu

The APC currently has a formidable political structure across the North. It controls many state governments and has an extensive political network at federal, state and local levels.

If Atiku were not contesting, a significant proportion of his northern supporters would likely have to choose between Tinubu and Obi/Kwankwaso.

Given the APC's organisational strength in the North, it is reasonable to assume that a substantial portion of those votes could move towards Tinubu.

Atiku's presence therefore creates a third pole.

Instead of having a straightforward Tinubu-versus-Obi contest in which the APC could consolidate much of the northern vote, Atiku can retain a significant portion of the traditional northern opposition vote.

That could prevent Tinubu from converting APC's enormous northern political structure into an overwhelming presidential advantage.

In other words, Atiku does not necessarily have to win the election to influence who wins it.

But Atiku's 2023 southern advantage is no longer guaranteed

This is where the 2027 election could be very different from 2023.

Atiku's strong performance in states such as Akwa Ibom, Osun, Bayelsa and others in 2023 cannot simply be transferred to 2027.

He was running under the PDP, which had substantial political structures in those states. The political landscape has since changed considerably, with prominent PDP figures and structures moving elsewhere.

Atiku is now running under the ADC.

Meanwhile, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso are contesting as a single ticket.

That matters enormously.

In 2023, Obi and Kwankwaso competed separately. In 2027, their political strengths are being combined.

The implication is that Obi can potentially retain his strong southern base while gaining a significant northern constituency through Kwankwaso.

The Obi-Kwankwaso combination changes the equation

This may be the single biggest difference between 2023 and 2027.

Peter Obi's major weakness in 2023 was not a lack of enthusiasm or support. It was the absence of a sufficiently strong political structure outside his strongest regions.

He also had no major northern political figure on his ticket.

That has changed.

Kwankwaso brings an established northern political network and demonstrated electoral strength, particularly in Kano. In 2023, he won almost one million votes in Kano alone.

Those votes are no longer competing with Obi.

They are potentially part of the same presidential ticket.

The combination therefore gives Obi something he did not have in 2023: a credible national coalition with significant strength in both the South and parts of the North.

The South-South could become a major problem for Atiku

I would also revise the assumption that Atiku will automatically retain much of the South-South because he won several states there in 2023.

Consider Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Osun

Atiku won the three states in 2023, but the political circumstances are now different.

Atiku will not be running under the PDP, rather, under a weak structured and relatively unknown ADC.

At the same time, Obi remains highly competitive across the South-South.

My current assessment therefore gives Obi/Kwankwaso the advantage in Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta and Edo, with Rivers remaining a major battleground.

If that happens, Atiku's southern vote could decline significantly from 2023.

And that creates a serious problem for his presidential ambitions.

The three candidates now have very different electoral coalitions

Bola Tinubu

Tinubu has the strongest existing political machinery.

His advantages include incumbency, APC's national structure, strong Southwest support and substantial northern organisation.

His biggest vulnerability is that he is the incumbent at a time when economic hardship and insecurity are major concerns for voters.

Atiku Abubakar

Atiku has enormous political experience and a strong northern network.

But his biggest challenge may be that he has lost much of the institutional advantage he enjoyed as the PDP presidential candidate in 2023. And also, zoning arrangement does not favor him at the moment.

He now has to build a national coalition under ADC while competing directly with Obi-Kwankwaso for voters opposed to the APC.

Peter Obi

Obi appears to have the strongest growth trajectory.

He has retained the enthusiasm and loyalty of his core supporters while expanding his political network.

More importantly, he now has Kwankwaso on his ticket, giving him access to a significant northern political constituency that was outside his coalition in 2023.

His major remaining challenge is converting political enthusiasm into a sufficiently strong polling-unit and grassroots organisation across the country.

My current state-by-state assessment

My latest central scenario has Obi/Kwankwaso winning approximately 19 states plus the FCT, Tinubu about 12 states, and Atiku about 6 states.

The states where I currently see Obi/Kwankwaso strongest include:

Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Benue, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Nasarawa, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba, plus the FCT.

Tinubu remains strongest in much of the Southwest and parts of the North, including Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Jigawa, Katsina and Zamfara.

Atiku's strongest remaining territory is concentrated largely in the North, particularly Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi, Sokoto and Yobe.

These are projections, not polling results, and several of these states remain highly competitive.

The most important point

Nigeria's presidential election is not won simply by having the largest support in one region.

A candidate must obtain the highest number of votes nationally while also satisfying the constitutional requirement of at least 25 percent of the votes in at least two-thirds of the states and the FCT.

That makes Obi's growing geographical spread extremely important.

If Obi/Kwankwaso can maintain their overwhelming advantage in the Southeast, dominate much of the South-South, win significant parts of the North-Central and Northwest, and cross the 25-percent threshold in enough additional states, they can defeat Tinubu without winning the majority of states.

My current prediction

After considering the changing party structures, the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket, Atiku's movement from PDP to ADC, the APC's northern strength and the changing political landscape in the South, my current assessment is:

Peter Obi/Kwankwaso — 50% chance of winning

Bola Tinubu/Shettima — 36%

Atiku/Amaechi — 14%

These are analytical probabilities, not opinion polls.

My central vote scenario is approximately:

Obi/Kwankwaso: 8.9 million

Tinubu: 8.2 million

Atiku: 6.3 million

The projected margin is therefore relatively narrow.

But the deeper conclusion is more important than the numbers:

Atiku may currently be the candidate least likely to win the presidency, while simultaneously being one of the most important factors determining who does win.

His presence could prevent Tinubu from consolidating the northern vote, while his loss of southern political machinery could prevent him from converting that northern strength into a national victory.

That leaves Peter Obi with a potentially powerful combination:

a loyal southern base + Kwankwaso's northern strength + an expanding national political structure + an anti-incumbency environment.

The big question between now and 2027 is therefore no longer simply whether Peter Obi can repeat his 2023 performance.

It is whether Obi-Kwankwaso can turn the coalition they have assembled into a genuine nationwide electoral machine.

If they can, the 2027 presidential election could be the first Nigerian presidential election in which Peter Obi enters as a genuine national favourite rather than simply a strong third-force candidate.

Chijioke Nwankwo, PhD.
Writing from Enugu.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
This is exactly what would happen.Obi running with Datti that could not win his polling unit affected him in 2023,he has made amends now and Kwankwanso would help him get more votes in the North now Buhari is not around ,Northern votes would be Split between all of them.Obi still have his base in SE and SS intact.