₦airaland Forum

It’s funny when I see Atiku supporters grandstanding.

Because until recently when Atiku came back with the lamba of returning subsidy, he was practically inexistent in national discourse. Even the promise to return subsidy is only resonating with northern populace; core north at that. And I think it’s because northerners are used to freebies so much that they will jump on anything that will bring back freebies.

Even with his little resurgence into media conversations, it changes nothing.

Or can Atiku supporters tell us any southern state that Atiku can win in 2027?

Let’s even reduce it to 25% threshold…. How many states in the South can Atiku score 25% of votes cast?

Or is Atiku hoping to win only with votes from the core north? Because even North Central is a shaky ground for him too.

He can win Osun...
He may win another. Let's wait until then

Penguin2:
It’s funny when I see Atiku supporters grandstanding.

Because until recently when Atiku came back with the lamba of returning subsidy, he was practically inexistent in national discourse. Even the promise to return subsidy is only resonating with northern populace; core north at that. And I think it’s because northerners are used to freebies so much that they will jump on anything that will bring back freebies.

Even with his little resurgence into media conversations, it changes nothing.

Or can Atiku supporters tell us any southern state that Atiku can win in 2027?

Let’s even reduce it to 25% threshold…. How many states in the South can Atiku score 25% of votes cast?

Or is Atiku hoping to win only with votes from the core north? Because even North Central is a shaky ground for him too.

Presidential elections go beyond winning states. All 3 candidates only won 12 states each in 2023 but Tinubu's margin of victory was only 1.9m (the least ever in the history of this country). 5.6m out of Tinubu’s total 8m votes came from the North. Only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes was from the South. It is possible for a candidate to not win a single state and still emerge president. All things being equal, Atiku is set to emerge with the highest number of votes cast on the first ballot and that's the worst case scenario. These are still early days but Atiku is the only opposition with the momentum as at today.

He cannot win any state in the southern parts and he will not get 25% required votes from any southern states that is why I said Atiku cannot be declared winner in next year presidential election come 2027 Jan.

AVAVictor1:
He cannot win any state in the southern parts and he will not get 25% required votes from any southern states that is why I said Atiku cannot be declared winner in next year presidential election come 2027 Jan.

If the 2027 elections become regionalised as you all are desperate to make it become, Atiku will be the candidate with the most advantage, but he is still the only one currently running an issue-based campaign. Atiku won Osun, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom in 2023. If the South are now "wiser" and will no longer vote for him because he suddenly turned a Northerner in 2027, what makes you think Northerners are still "foolish?". Abi una think say Atiku na orphan? Na person born Atiku too na.

2027 will surely be ATIKU worst political outing in history

Foolish questions from amateurs and foolish answers to make them happy

Atiku is incoming

yarimo:
2027 will surely be ATIKU worst political outing in history

You will be shocked .. so tey your mouth will remain open for next Four years

February is here already

Odin13:
You will be shocked .. so tey your mouth will remain open for next Four years

February is here already

ok

yarimo:
ok

Yawn

Penguin2:
It’s funny when I see Atiku supporters grandstanding.

Because until recently when Atiku came back with the lamba of returning subsidy, he was practically inexistent in national discourse. Even the promise to return subsidy is only resonating with northern populace; core north at that. And I think it’s because northerners are used to freebies so much that they will jump on anything that will bring back freebies.

Even with his little resurgence into media conversations, it changes nothing.

Or can Atiku supporters tell us any southern state that Atiku can win in 2027?

Let’s even reduce it to 25% threshold…. How many states in the South can Atiku score 25% of votes cast?

Or is Atiku hoping to win only with votes from the core north? Because even North Central is a shaky ground for him too.

the same way u should ask yourself which northern state can obi win?

Odin13:
Foolish questions from amateurs and foolish answers to make them happy

Atiku is incoming

Asgard


So obi no dey come again?

AMINDA:
Presidential elections go beyond winning states. All 3 candidates only won 12 states each in 2023 but Tinubu's margin of victory was only 1.9m (the least ever in the history of this country). 5.6m out of Tinubu’s total 8m votes came from the North. Only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes was from the South. It is possible for a candidate to not win a single state and still emerge president. All things being equal, Atiku is set to emerge with the highest number of votes cast on the first ballot and that's the worst case scenario. These are still early days but Atiku is the only opposition with the momentum as at today.

The 3 states Atiku won in the South in 2023 were Osun, Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom.

Now, in Osun, Adeleke has endorsed Tinubu. But supposing Osun indigenes choose to defy Adeleke like it seems they would, I don’t see Atiku being the beneficiary of such defiance. I see Makinde being the beneficiary or even Obi.

In Akwa Ibom, Udom was Atiku’s DG and a sitting governor and wanted to show working and rigged the state for Atiku. Udom is no longer there. The sitting governor is now singing “on your mandate.” How does Atiku hope to garner votes in Akwa Ibom.

In Bayelsa, Diri has defected to APC and the National Leader of NDC is from there. Automatically, Bayelsa is for Obi while Tinubu might garner some fringe votes.

Now, which state is Atiku hoping to see even 25% in Southern Nigeria?

BATified2023:
the same way u should ask yourself which northern state can obi win?

Obi will win:
1) Kano
2) Plateau
3) Benue
4) Nasarawa
5) FCT.

Similarly, Obi will get 25% in:
1) Taraba
2) Adamawa (Binani factor)
3) Zamfara (Marafa factor)
4) Kogi
5) Kaduna (tentative)
6) Jigawa (Kwankwasiya presence but tentative)

Tell me which one is not realistic.

Penguin2:
The 3 states Atiku won in the South in 2023 were Osun, Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom.

Now, in Osun, Adeleke has endorsed Tinubu. But supposing Osun indigenes choose to defy Adeleke like it seems they would, I don’t see Atiku being the beneficiary of such defiance. I see Makinde being the beneficiary or even Obi.

In Akwa Ibom, Udom was Atiku’s DG and a sitting governor and wanted to show working and rigged the state for Atiku. Udom is no longer there. The sitting governor is now singing “on your mandate.” How does Atiku hope to garner votes in Akwa Ibom.

In Bayelsa, Diri has defected to APC and the National Leader of NDC is from there. Automatically, Bayelsa is for Obi while Tinubu might garner some fringe votes.

Now, which state is Atiku hoping to see even 25% in Southern Nigeria?

I think you should be more worried about Obi than Atiku. I just told you that only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes in 2023 came from the South unlike Tinubu who got 70% of his votes from the North. Atiku won more APC-governed states than he did PDP states. If it's about governors, then it's safe to say that Tinubu has won the elections because APC currently has 31 governors. But we know it's not about governors because Peter Obi had none in 2023 but did reasonably well while Okowa failed to deliver his state as an incumbent and Vice presidential candidate. APC also had 21 governors in 2023, but Tinubu only won 12 states. Only half of those 12 were APC-governed states. Data is stubborn. Like I said, worry more about Obi. Atiku is in good standing, heading into 2027.

I can't even say the state he will win in the South but he can 25% in a couple.

Penguin2:
Obi will win:
1) Kano
2) Plateau
3) Benue
4) Nasarawa
5) FCT.

Similarly, Obi will get 25% in:
1) Taraba
2) Adamawa (Binani factor)
3) Zamfara (Marafa factor)
4) Kogi
5) Kaduna (tentative)
6) Jigawa (Kwankwasiya presence but tentative)

Tell me which one is not realistic.

I always tell you something but you always don't listen.

Peter Obi can only win FCT and/or Nasarawa.
He can never win Kano.

He can't win 25% in any of the 5 States you mentioned.

AMINDA:
Presidential elections go beyond winning states. All 3 candidates only won 12 states each in 2023 but Tinubu's margin of victory was only 1.9m (the least ever in the history of this country). 5.6m out of Tinubu’s total 8m votes came from the North. Only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes was from the South. It is possible for a candidate to not win a single state and still emerge president. All things being equal, Atiku is set to emerge with the highest number of votes cast on the first ballot and that's the worst case scenario. These are still early days but Atiku is the only opposition with the momentum as at today.

It is always interesting to see how you throw up the 5.6 million votes BAT got in the North every time. The North is not monolithic. Also, the North of 2026 is not the North Ahmadu Bello left behind. Is the North not inclusive of Southern Kaduna, Plateau, Kogi, Kwara, Benue, Taraba, Niger, and Nasarawa?

North, as you often project it, represents the perspective of a typical North-Western Fulani politician, trying to intimidate a Southern politician. Tinubu might not get 5.6 million votes in the North in 2027, but he will still get millions in the North. Obi will also get millions in the North. I agree that Atiku will do a lot better in the North this time, but can he perform in the South as much as he did in 2023?

DoTheNeedful:
It is always interesting to see how you throw up the 5.6 million votes BAT got in the North every time. The North is not monolithic. Also, the North of 2026 is not the North Ahmadu Bello left behind. Is that North not inclusive of Southern Kaduna, Plateau, Kogi, Kwara, Benue, Taraba, Niger, and Nasarawa?

The concept of North as you project it often represent that of a typical North-Western Fulani trying to intimidate a Southern politician. Tinubu might not get 5.6 million votes in the North in 2027, but he will still get millions in the North. Obi will also get millions in the North. I agree that Atiku will do a lot better in the North this time, but can he perform in the South as much as he did in 2023?

I don't know. Neither do you. Which is why time is a gentleman. Southern Kaduna voted Obi in 2023. Even if we are to assume that they will all now vote Tinubu (they won't), Obi only got 250k+ votes in Kaduna. The other part of Kaduna splitted their votes largely between Tinubu (400k votes), Atiku (500k+), and Kwankwaso (150k). Tinubu's muslim-muslim is ageing like expired milk in the North. He should have picked a Christian.

An Islamic cleric has made some serious allegations about how the Tinubu administration allegedly engages religious leaders in the North.

According to him, 12 religious leaders were selected from each northern state to promote and preach the “gospel of Tinubu.” He claimed they… pic.twitter.com/1gVKmUr1Yw

— Dos Santos (@MyksonDosSantos) August 29, 2026

AMINDA:
I don't know. Neither do you. Which is why time is a gentleman.

An Islamic cleric has made some serious allegations about how the Tinubu administration allegedly engages religious leaders in the North.

According to him, 12 religious leaders were selected from each northern state to promote and preach the “gospel of Tinubu.” He claimed they… pic.twitter.com/1gVKmUr1Yw

— Dos Santos (@MyksonDosSantos) August 29, 2026

Good! At least, I tend to be measured with my positions.

The thing I am certain about is that Tinubu will come first or second in almost every state. Wherever Atiku comes first in the North, he would likely come second. Wherever Obi comes first, Tinubu would likely come second. He will surely win some states outrightly.

In a tight three-horse race as 2027 presidential election is shaping to be, winning a state outrightly might be overrated. Tinubu came second in Lagos in 2023, yet his highest votes of any state was still what he got in Lagos. So, it is possible to win 10 out of the 36 states and still be president.

moscow007:
So in ur delusive mind Peter Obi will not win Benue and Plateau?😂😂

He even forgot to mention Taraba, relax 2027 will hospitalise you!

Know this and know peace, outside of the Southeast and maybe a few states in the Southsouth, many who voted Peter Obi will no longer do so in 2027 if they do not see a clear pathway to victory for him. In 2023, Obi had momentum and so many thought he genuinely stood a chance as the only major Christian candidate, but he is currently failing to build one now while Kwankwaso remains lethargic and is rarely ever seen with Obi. No motion. Atiku is currently the only opposition with the momentum and his fuel subsidy proposal has endeared him to many voters across the country, but these are still early days

Penguin2:
Obi will win:
1) Kano
2) Plateau
3) Benue
4) Nasarawa
5) FCT.

Similarly, Obi will get 25% in:
1) Taraba
2) Adamawa (Binani factor)
3) Zamfara (Marafa factor)
4) Kogi
5) Kaduna (tentative)
6) Jigawa (Kwankwasiya presence but tentative)

Tell me which one is not realistic.

If obi will win Kano, it will be narrowly. He will win plateau with reduced margins. He won't win benue and nasarawa but will come close. Ofcourse he will win fct.

Obi getting 25% in Adamawa will be hard, Binani is more concerned about Guber and may still work for Atiku. Marafa can't give obi above 15% in Zamfara which is a stretch. Obi is not in contention in kogi and Jigawa. Apart from Kano, obi won't get more votes from any northern state

Atiku will win NorthEast and NorthWest while Tinubu will win SouthWest. His Excellency P. O. will win SouthEast, SouthSouth and North Central. P. O. will still win the most populated States like Lagos, Kano and Rivers where APC will spend big money but the people will vote NDC.

fergie001:
I can't even say the state he will win in the South but he can 25% in a couple.

Apart from osun if Aregbe is serious and maybe Oyo if Makinde collapses his structure for him, ADC is non existent

fergie001:
I always tell you something but you always don't listen.

Peter Obi can only win FCT and/or Nasarawa.
He can never win Kano.

He can't win 25% in any of the 5 States you mentioned.

You are brutally honest. Obi should win Kano but with the way kwankwasiyya are dumping him, he might not. It is very dicey. He won't win nasarawa again. Even plateau and fct he would win won't be easy

Forget all this long grammar, take it to the bank the election will probably end this way: Tinubu, Obi, Atiku.

Tinubu first because he is the incumbent and I expect him to be competitive (first or second) in every state unlike both obi and Atiku.

AMINDA:
If the 2027 elections become regionalised as you all are desperate to make it become, Atiku will be the candidate with the most advantage, but he is still the only one currently running an issue-based campaign. Atiku won Osun, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom in 2023. If the South are now "wiser" and will no longer vote for him because he suddenly turned a Northerner in 2027, what makes you think Northerners are still "foolish?". Abi una think say Atiku na orphan? Na person born Atiku too na.

One thing about you is that , you are still reasoning with 1960 mentality! Atiku win bayelsa, osun and awka ibom in pdp in 2023, so automatically , all those votes will transfer to Atiku in ndc in 2027? Abeg this is the tenth time we are asking you, can you tell us one states in the south atiku will get 25%, even the dullest person in the north know apc will get more than 25% in atikus state , so why are you always fooling yourself?

fergie001:
I always tell you something but you always don't listen.

Peter Obi can only win FCT and/or Nasarawa.
He can never win Kano.

He can't win 25% in any of the 5 States you mentioned.

Lol!

Obi won Plateau, Nasarawa and FCT in 2023, can you point to any change in reality that shows he can’t retain these 3 states in 2027?

Kwankwaso is a god in Kano, and wherever he is that’s where Kano people goes. And I’m not relying on just historical evidence but also a little research into what is going on in Kano will tell you the atmosphere in the state. But just to ask you, if you say Obi can’t win Kano, Then who would?

Then for the rest of the states… Obi won Benue in 2023 but it was rigged for Tinubu. Out of 23 LGA, Obi won 15 and Tinubu only won 8.

In Zamfara, I can see the activities of Kabiru Marafa who is quite popular in the state, and I believe he can influence at least 25% of votes for NDC in the presidential election.


Taraba voted for Obi in 2023 but because of lack of boot on ground to protect votes, results were changed for Atiku. Obi will still see 25% of the state’s votes if it’s protected. Let me also add that the current NDC governorship candidate was NNPP governorship candidate in 2023 and he came second just behind Agbu Kefas.

In Adamawa, Binani went toe to toe with a sitting governor in 2023, and you think she can’t mobilize 25% of votes for her presidential candidate? Add that also that Obi is already popular in the Christian communities of the state.

So, I don’t see any of what I said being unrealistic.

AMINDA:
I think you should be more worried about Obi than Atiku. I just told you that only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes in 2023 came from the South unlike Tinubu who got 70% of his votes from the North. Atiku won more APC-governed states than he did PDP states. If it's about governors, then it's safe to say that Tinubu has won the elections because APC currently has 31 governors. But we know it's not about governors because Peter Obi had none in 2023 but did reasonably well while Okowa failed to deliver his state as an incumbent and Vice presidential candidate. APC also had 21 governors in 2023, but Tinubu only won 12 states. Only half of those 12 were APC-governed states. Data is stubborn. Like I said, worry more about Obi. Atiku is in good standing, heading into 2027.

Okay, so, Atiku got about 800k votes in 2023 and has now lost about 80% of that number and is also not sure of 25% in any southern state, not even in Rivers where his running mate is from.

What that means is that automatically Atiku is only sure of 25% of votes cast from 19 states of the north. So, even if the north votes for him en masse and helps him win simple majority, he will still fall short of spread.

But then again, can Atiku see 25% of votes cast in Plateau, Benue and Kwara?