₦airaland Forum

fergie001:
I can't even say the state he will win in the South but he can 25% in a couple.

We live in a world of data and statistics, nobody makes blanket predictions anymore without putting names and numbers to the prediction.

So, can you state the States where you think Atiku will get 25% and what are the feelers on ground that supports it?

Predictor3:
He can win Osun...
He may win another. Let's wait until then

The Osun where his party got 17k or which one? lol. He won’t even get 5% in Osun.

Akpakomiza2:
If obi will win Kano, it will be narrowly. He will win plateau with reduced margins. He won't win benue and nasarawa but will come close. Ofcourse he will win fct.

Obi getting 25% in Adamawa will be hard, Binani is more concerned about Guber and may still work for Atiku. Marafa can't give obi above 15% in Zamfara which is a stretch. Obi is not in contention in kogi and Jigawa. Apart from Kano, obi won't get more votes from any northern state

First, without boot on ground, Peter Obi scored 105k votes in Adamawa in 2023. Do I need to tell you that he scored more than that but the figures were changed against him? So, Obi is already popular, considerably, in Adamawa. All Binani and her team need to do is protect Obi’s votes and help add some few percentage, and you will see Obi getting his 25%.

Then Benue…. If you say Obi won’t win Benue, then who would? Tinubu that has overseen their slaughter since 2023 or Atiku?

Taraba is a Christian State and a traditional PDP voting state. Obi scored 146k votes in 2023. Atiku who won only scored 189k votes. What has happened that would change this? Also, the current NDC candidate gubernatorial candidate was NNPP gubernatorial candidate in 2023 and came second behind Kefas. Add his influence and that numbers goes even higher.

Then about Zamfara and Jigawa, I can’t say for certain but Kwankwasiya has considerable presence in Jigawa, and Marafa seems to be doing some work in Zamfara. You can’t write them off.

Penguin2:
Okay, so, Atiku got about 800k votes in 2023 and has now lost about 80% of that number and is also not sure of 25% in any southern state, not even in Rivers where his running mate is from.

What that means is that automatically Atiku is only sure of 25% of votes cast from 19 states of the north. So, even if the north votes for him en masse and helps him win simple majority, he will still fall short of spread.

But then again, can Atiku see 25% of votes cast in Plateau, Benue and Kwara?

So why does that bother you when Obi failed to even meet the spread in 2023 when he was more popular than he is today across the country? If Atiku gets the highest number of votes cast, that means he has already qualified for the run-off against the opponent who will get the most spread (not necessarily the candidate with the second highest votes cast). If this happens, the run-off election will be more favourable to Atiku because he will again have the advantage of numbers. Besides, like I always say, whoever will be able to build the most momentum heading into 2027 will win the election. Many more people voted Obi simply because they thought he could win. Similarly, many will eventually back Atiku if he builds enough momentum. Nigerians have largely learnt from the lesson of a three-horse race and it showed in Osun state. Many ADC supporters voted Adeleke in order not to split their votes in favour of the APC. The same will happen in 2027 on a large scale. The concept of "wasting" of votes will be less rampant in 2027 and the elections might very likely become a two-horse race as 2027 approaches.

AndroBlaze:
I just can't wait for the South to send Atiku a clear message, that "No One is Born to Rule"....imagine, if he wins there would have been THREE muslim Fulani Presidents from a so called heterogeneous North

Stop the unity begging. There is no South. The South didn't vote Tinubu. They voted Obi. The North made Tinubu president. If the elections were to be only held in the South, Tinubu wouldn't see draw. So what's this pontification about the South when Tinubu ran a solely Yoruba government?

Penguin2:
Obi will win:
1) Kano
2) Plateau
3) Benue
4) Nasarawa
5) FCT.

Similarly, Obi will get 25% in:
1) Taraba
2) Adamawa (Binani factor)
3) Zamfara (Marafa factor)
4) Kogi
5) Kaduna (tentative)
6) Jigawa (Kwankwasiya presence but tentative)

Tell me which one is not realistic.

Obi will not win Kano, Plateau and Benue. Nasarawa is 50/50 while I concede FCT to him.

Taraba is now an APC state so it will be a straight fight between Tinubu and Atiku. With the governor and TY Danjuma now backing APC and with most Northern Christians now supporting Mr. President, Tinubu should win Taraba with Atiku coming second. Whatever votes are left won’t be up to 25% for Obi.

Adamawa is Atiku’s home. He will win easily with Tinubu coming second. Tinubu will ride on the party structure and state governor to get 25%. Binani under NDC is not Binani under APC. She can’t deliver 25% to Peter Obi because she’s even backing Atiku for president. She’s in NDC for her own ambition and not Obi’s ambition. Tinubu saw her treacherous behavior in 2023 and that’s why she got no appointment despite her solid performance in the governorship election. Binani is an Atiku girl.


Obi will not get 5% in Zamfara so no need to waste time on that state. Kogi is also APC state. The only opposition in the state is Senator Natasha and she belongs to Wike’s rainbow coalition. Obi won’t get 15% in the state.

Peter Obi did well in Southern Kaduna in 2023. Sadly, he has lost that region to Tinubu. The people of southern Kaduna are Tinubu’s biggest supporters in the north right now. Tinubu will clear that region. Obi won’t get 10% in Kaduna in 2027.

Jigawa is not even in play so no point wasting time dreaming of Obi getting 25%. Kwakwanso himself couldn’t get 25% in the state when he contested for President, is it now Obi that will get 25% there? lol.

Predictor3:
He can win Osun...
He may win another. Let's wait until then

Osun where, mention 1 local government in Osun that Atiku will win, 100k bet per local government he wins.

moscow007:
So in ur delusive mind Peter Obi will not win Benue and Plateau?😂😂

He even forgot to mention Taraba, relax 2027 will hospitalise you!

Did he win Benue and Taraba in 2023?

Akpakomiza2:
Apart from osun if Aregbe is serious and maybe Oyo if Makinde collapses his structure for him, ADC is non existent

Aregbe’s candidate got 17k in Osun. Atiku won’t get 5% in Osun State. Makinde as a presidential candidate won’t get 25% in Oyo State. He’s only on the ballot to get votes for his governorship candidate. Tinubu will win Oyo State easily.

Penguin2:
First, without boot on ground, Peter Obi scored 105k votes in Adamawa in 2023. Do I need to tell you that he scored more than that but the figures were changed against him? So, Obi is already popular, considerably, in Adamawa. All Binani and her team need to do is protect Obi’s votes and help add some few percentage, and you will see Obi getting his 25%.

Then Benue…. If you say Obi won’t win Benue, then who would? Tinubu that has overseen their slaughter since 2023 or Atiku?

Taraba is a Christian State and a traditional PDP voting state. Obi scored 146k votes in 2023. Atiku who won only scored 189k votes. What has happened that would change this? Also, the current NDC candidate gubernatorial candidate was NNPP gubernatorial candidate in 2023 and came second behind Kefas. Add his influence and that numbers goes even higher.

Then about Zamfara and Jigawa, I can’t say for certain but Kwankwasiya has considerable presence in Jigawa, and Marafa seems to be doing some work in Zamfara. You can’t write them off.

Obi actually had boots on ground. Babachir Lawal was stoutly supporting him. Almost all that 105,000 votes came from Christian dominated areas. Binani is a supremacist, she was in APC 2023 yet supported Atiku. Be rest assured that she won't work for obi. Besides, those Muslim votes will mostly go Atiku.
Obi at the height of his popularity couldn't win Benue sir. Governor ortom and over 50% of PDP in Benue supported him yet he still lost. Now, ortom And his followers and even suswan are supporting Tinubu so no chance for obi to win. By now, you should know that Benue votes aren't influenced by insecurity. Besides, insecurity and herdsmen activities have reduced compared to Buhari era. Again, the Muslim- Muslim fear is also gone...

Taraba is Christian dominated. Obi had a chance to win but still lost which means the christians of North East vote differently from those of the north central. Taraba is usually won by the ruling party just like Bayelsa and Akwa ibom. Sani Musa is a Fulani like Binani, he is only interested in his elections. In 2023, he contested under nnpp and couldn't get votes for his fellow Fulani kwankwaso. Obi is on his own. With Taraba governor and the political structure in APC, I think Tinubu will likely win. If obi had people like Danlami ikenya, Sabo kente, Emmanuel bwacha etc, it would have been better.

Kwankwaso as a contestant couldn't get 25% in jigawa, what would he do for Obi? Marafa is working for himself. Zamfara is very conservative, obi has no chance here.

Moroccoguy:
Osun where, mention 1 local government in Osun that Atiku will win, 100k bet per local government he wins.

Atiku will get 25% in osun

seunmsg:
Obi will not win Kano, Plateau and Benue. Nasarawa is 50/50 while I concede FCT to him.

Taraba is now an APC state so it will be a straight fight between Tinubu and Atiku. With the governor and TY Danjuma now backing APC and with most Northern Christians now supporting Mr. President, Tinubu should win Taraba with Atiku coming second. Whatever votes are left won’t be up to 25% for Obi.

Adamawa is Atiku’s home. He will win easily with Tinubu coming second. Tinubu will ride on the party structure and state governor to get 25%. Binani under NDC is not Binani under APC. She can’t deliver 25% to Peter Obi because she’s even backing Atiku for president. She’s in NDC for her own ambition and not Obi’s ambition. Tinubu saw her treacherous behavior in 2023 and that’s why she got no appointment despite her solid performance in the governorship election. Binani is an Atiku girl.


Obi will not get 5% in Zamfara so no need to waste time on that state. Kogi is also APC state. The only opposition in the state is Senator Natasha and she belongs to Wike’s rainbow coalition. Obi won’t get 15% in the state.

Peter Obi did well in Southern Kaduna in 2023. Sadly, he has lost that region to Tinubu. The people of southern Kaduna are Tinubu’s biggest supporters in the north right now. Tinubu will clear that region. Obi won’t get 10% in Kaduna in 2027.

Jigawa is not even in play so no point wasting time dreaming of Obi getting 25%. Kwakwanso himself couldn’t get 25% in the state when he contested for President, is it now Obi that will get 25% there? lol.

I think obi can narrowly win Kano and plateau. All kwankwaso needs is to work harder and with more force even though I know many of his fans won't vote obi. Obi will still likely win plateau narrowly. He won with a big gap in 2023 like fct. That can be easily eroded but again the Muslim-Muslim fears is down, insecurity in plateau curtailed and with Muftwang in APC, tinubu will get higher votes. I even learnt pdp in 2023 abandoned atiku And worked for obi And now are with Tinubu. He has a slim chance.

Obi won nasarawa because of Karu bloc votes and Wadada being neutral. He is popular there and will surely weigh in.
Binani just like Mama Taraba is pro Atiku. Obi will get up to 15% in kaduna

Akpakomiza2:
Apart from osun if Aregbe is serious and maybe Oyo if Makinde collapses his structure for him, ADC is non existent

Makinde is not because he doesn't want to repeat the mistake he made in 2023.
He has candidates on the down-ballot so it's APM or nothing in Oyo.

Akpakomiza2:
Atiku will get 25% in osun

So you from Adamawa, you know what’s happening there Abi, he will get it, how?

AndroBlaze:
I just can't wait for the South to send Atiku a clear message, that "No One is Born to Rule"....imagine, if he wins there would have been THREE muslim Fulani Presidents from a so called heterogeneous North

You want the South to send a clear message, what do you want the north to do?

Remember there’s no united South.

Penguin2:
Okay, so, Atiku got about 800k votes in 2023 and has now lost about 80% of that number and is also not sure of 25% in any southern state, not even in Rivers where his running mate is from.

What that means is that automatically Atiku is only sure of 25% of votes cast from 19 states of the north. So, even if the north votes for him en masse and helps him win simple majority, he will still fall short of spread.

But then again, can Atiku see 25% of votes cast in Plateau, Benue and Kwara?

Atiku will get 25% in Lagos, Osun and Rivers to say the least.

Akpakomiza2:
I think obi can narrowly win Kano and plateau. All kwankwaso needs is to work harder and with more force even though I know many of his fans won't vote obi. Obi will still likely win plateau narrowly. He won with a big gap in 2023 like fct. That can be easily eroded but again the Muslim-Muslim fears is down, insecurity in plateau curtailed and with Muftwang in APC, tinubu will get higher votes. I even learnt pdp in 2023 abandoned atiku And worked for obi And now are with Tinubu. He has a slim chance.

Obi won nasarawa because of Karu bloc votes and Wadada being neutral. He is popular there and will surely weigh in.
Binani just like Mama Taraba is pro Atiku. Obi will get up to 15% in kaduna

Well, I don’t see Obi winning both Kano and Plateau. He will do better in Kano but not win. Kwakwanso of 2023 is not Kwakwanso of 2027. A lot had happened to his movement and a lot of sentiments are now in favour of Atiku as the only realistic northern candidate on the ballot.

Obi did well in plateau in 2023 because of the MM ticket. However, if you combine APC and PDP votes at the time, they got far more votes than Obi. The PDP and APC structure in the state has been merged. A lot of the Christians that voted for Obi in 2023 are no longer scared of Tinubu coming with an Islamization agenda. The National Chairman of APC is a Christian from the state. Between him and the governor, everything possible will be done to win the state. I’m calling Plateau for Tinubu with my full chest.

AMINDA:
while Kwankwaso remains lethargic and is rarely ever seen with Obi.

How many times has Atiku been seen with Amaechi since he choose him as VP?


PO and Kwankwaso have been seen together more than tinubu /shettima and Atiku/Amaechi .

AMINDA:
I think you should be more worried about Obi than Atiku. I just told you that only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes in 2023 came from the South unlike Tinubu who got 70% of his votes from the North. Atiku won more APC-governed states than he did PDP states. If it's about governors, then it's safe to say that Tinubu has won the elections because APC currently has 31 governors. But we know it's not about governors because Peter Obi had none in 2023 but did reasonably well while Okowa failed to deliver his state as an incumbent and Vice presidential candidate. APC also had 21 governors in 2023, but Tinubu only won 12 states. Only half of those 12 were APC-governed states. Data is stubborn. Like I said, worry more about Obi. Atiku is in good standing, heading into 2027.

Of the 12 states Atiku won in 2023, 7 states were governed by the PDP at the time of the presidential election (February 25, 2023):

1. Adamawa — PDP
2. Akwa Ibom — PDP
3. Bauchi — PDP
4. Bayelsa — PDP
5. Osun — PDP
6. Sokoto — PDP
7. Taraba — PDP

While 9 of the 12 states Tinubu won in 2023 had APC governors.

Please stop misleading people.

donphilopus:
Of the 12 states Atiku won in 2023, 7 states were governed by the PDP at the time of the presidential election (February 25, 2023):

1. Adamawa — PDP
2. Akwa Ibom — PDP
3. Bauchi — PDP
4. Bayelsa — PDP
5. Osun — PDP
6. Sokoto — PDP
7. Taraba — PDP

While 9 of the 12 states Tinubu won in 2023 had APC governors.

Please stop misleading people.

Now add the APC-governed states of Katsina, Kaduna, Gombe, Yobe, and Kebbi. Tinubu and his muslim-muslim ticket was very popular in the North in 2023. The same cannot be said today. The Bottomline line is that governors alone do not determine the outcome of presidential elections. Now, tell us why Tinubu only managed to win 7 states out of 21 APC-governed states in 2023.

AMINDA:
Now add the APC-governed states of Katsina, Kaduna, Gombe, Yobe, and Kebbi. Tinubu and his muslim-muslim ticket was very popular in the North in 2023. The same cannot be said today. The Bottomline line is that governors alone do not determine the outcome of presidential elections. Now, tell us why Tinubu only managed to win 7 states out of 21 APC-governed states in 2023.

Tinubu won 9 out of the 21 APC-governed states in 2023. If he's able to win 4 out of the extra 10 now, that'd be about 13 states. Now add Osun to his number of states, that'd be 14. In a three-horse race, 14 states should get him re-elected. True or false?

donphilopus:
Tinubu won 9 out of the 21 APC-governed states in 2023. If he's able to win 4 out of the extra 10 now, that'd be about 13 states. Now add Osun to his number of states, that'd be 14. In a three-horse race, 14 states should get him re-elected. True or false?

The question is can he retain all the 9 states he won in 2023?

Can he win Zamfara again?

Can he win Jigawa and Kebbi and Gombe?

fergie001:
Makinde is not because he doesn't want to repeat the mistake he made in 2023.
He has candidates on the down-ballot so it's APM or nothing in Oyo.

You are very correct, Makinde will be on the ballot just to protect his candidates in Oyo so he won't endorse anyone. Oriyomi Hazmat is really eating until his votes though

seunmsg:
Well, I don’t see Obi winning both Kano and Plateau. He will do better in Kano but not win. Kwakwanso of 2023 is not Kwakwanso of 2027. A lot had happened to his movement and a lot of sentiments are now in favour of Atiku as the only realistic northern candidate on the ballot.

Obi did well in plateau in 2023 because of the MM ticket. However, if you combine APC and PDP votes at the time, they got far more votes than Obi. The PDP and APC structure in the state has been merged. A lot of the Christians that voted for Obi in 2023 are no longer scared of Tinubu coming with an Islamization agenda. The National Chairman of APC is a Christian from the state. Between him and the governor, everything possible will be done to win the state. I’m calling Plateau for Tinubu with my full chest.

Atiku will never fly in Kano no matter the sentiments. You can't just expect pdp and aoc votes to coalesce, votes are not that easily transferrable. Again, Ex governor Jang who is popular among plateau voters is still in PDP. Nasarawa is far easier than plateau

Akpakomiza2:
Atiku will never fly in Kano no matter the sentiments. You can't just expect pdp and aoc votes to coalesce, votes are not that easily transferrable. Again, Ex governor Jang who is popular among plateau voters is still in PDP. Nasarawa is far easier than plateau

Jang is in Wike’s Rainbow coalition. He will be settled to work for Tinubu since PDP has no presidential candidate. I don’t see Jang supporting Peter Obi.


Nasarawa has always been difficult for APC because of Karu local government. In 2019, an APC orchestrated violence led to the cancellation of votes from almost half of the polling units in Mararaba. That was the only time APC was able to win the state narrowly in a presidential election. Except they go that route again, Nasarawa will remain extremely difficult to win for APC.

Penguin2:
The question is can he retain all the 9 states he won in 2023?

Can he win Zamfara again?

Can he win Jigawa and Kebbi and Gombe?

He lost both Kebbi and Gombe in 2023. He will definitely retain both Zamfara and Jigawa in 2027. Nothing has changed in those two states other than the complete death of PDP structure that gave Atiku an advantage.

Sheuns:
Atiku will get 25% in Lagos, Osun and Rivers to say the least.

Atiku won't get anything in Lagos or rivers

Well he will get 25 percent in most southern states , now tell us which how many northern states Tinubu can win

seunmsg:
Jang is in Wike’s Rainbow coalition. He will be settled to work for Tinubu since PDP has no presidential candidate. I don’t see Jang supporting Peter Obi.


Nasarawa has always been difficult for APC because of Karu local government. In 2019, an APC orchestrated violence led to the cancellation of votes from almost half of the polling units in Mararaba. That was the only time APC was able to win the state narrowly in a presidential election. Except they go that route again, Nasarawa will remain extremely difficult to win for APC.

You are very right. Nasarawa is complicated and small, it is not really significant or strategic. Plateau is more important. If Tinubu can get bloc in Lafia and keffi or one, they can win. Jang moves like T. Y Danjuma, you dont know who they will eventually support.

SalamRushdie:
Well he will get 25 percent in most southern states , now tell us which how many northern states Tinubu can win

Mention the southern states. Are you not tired of Atiku ? Tinubu will win at least 8 northern states

Akpakomiza2:
Mention the southern states. Are you not tired of Atiku ? Tinubu will win at least 8 northern states

Tinubu sent 70 million more Nigerians into poverty , triggered 10 x inflation , he should be the one I am tired of

Penguin2:
The question is can he retain all the 9 states he won in 2023?

Can he win Zamfara again?

Can he win Jigawa and Kebbi and Gombe?

He will certainly win Zamfara and Jigawa. He has a chance of winning Kebbi with Aliero on his side. He can't win Gombe especially with Goje aggrieved. Tinubu is in a very good place electorally, he doesn't need to win those northern states. He just needs substantial votes