₦airaland Forum

Penguin2:
The question is can he retain all the 9 states he won in 2023?

Can he win Zamfara again?

Can he win Jigawa and Kebbi and Gombe?

AMINDA:
Stop the unity begging. There is no South. The South didn't vote Tinubu. They voted Obi. The North made Tinubu president. If the elections were to be only held in the South, Tinubu wouldn't see draw. So what's this pontification about the South when Tinubu ran a solely Yoruba government?

AndroBlaze:
As usual, keep being clever by half.

No matter how you sell your Fulani agenda and boast about your powers to enthrone presidents in a largely parasitic manner, 5 states from the south must still give Atiku 25%......all his outlandish promises currently are targeted at that and he will not see it this time, simple

Akpakomiza2:
You are very correct, Makinde will be on the ballot just to protect his candidates in Oyo so he won't endorse anyone. Oriyomi Hazmat is really eating until his votes though

AMINDA:
Lol. Who's going to stop him from getting it? Tinubu won only 4 states out of 17 Southern states. Atiku on the other hand, won 3 Southern states. 2023 was more of the "Southern turn" than 2027 will be. Economics and cost of living crisis will be the decider of the elections. Not tribe or religion.

After running a tribal government with arrogance for 3 years, you are now trying to rile up the other South with "Southern turn" but up North, Tinubu is running on muslim-muslim ticket to get Hausa-Fulani Muslim votes. Meanwhile, in Lagos, you're asking other Southerners to go back to their states. There is no South!

seunmsg:
He lost both Kebbi and Gombe in 2023. He will definitely retain both Zamfara and Jigawa in 2027. Nothing has changed in those two states other than the complete death of PDP structure that gave Atiku an advantage.

AndroBlaze:

So it is a man that became rich through customs and has not run any successful company beside pillaging Nigeria that will now improve the economy and reduce cost of living abi?

A man that is resident in Dubai 300 days out of 365 abi....you are only deceiving those who believe in fairytales

AndroBlaze:
So it is a man that became rich through customs and has not run any successful company beside pillaging Nigeria that will now improve the economy and reduce cost of living abi?

A man that is resident in Dubai 300 days out of 365 abi....you are only deceiving those who believe in fairytales

AndroBlaze:
As usual, keep being clever by half.

No matter how you sell your Fulani agenda and boast about your powers to enthrone presidents in a largely parasitic manner, 5 states from the south must still give Atiku 25%......all his outlandish promises currently are targeted at that and he will not see it this time, simple

anonimi:
How we foiled Jonathan’s effort to make Mulika Adeola Speaker, Akande reveals

AS president in 2011, Goodluck Jonathan did all he could to ensure South West grabbed the country’s number four seat, including lobbying then opposition leaders from the zone, to no avail. The North West eventually grabbed the seat, supported by South West leaders in opposition to then ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Former Governor of Osun State and now statesman, Chief Bisi Akande, made this revelation in his autobiography, “My Participations” which is currently dominating political and national dis- course.

Aminu Tambuwal, now Sokoto State governor, won the seat, against the preferred pick of his party, Mrs Mulikat Adeola Akande, from the South-West. Defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, then a fledging opposition, which had Akande and his soulmate, former Lagos State governor, Senator Bola Tinubu, as front- line leaders, openly asked its elected members of the House of Representatives, mostly from the South-West, to work against their region and back Tambuwal from North-West.

The opposition party’s support carried Tambuwal through the contest against Akande, then ruling party’s favourite for the speakership seat.

In his book, Chief Akande revealed that former president then as incumbent, personally reached out to Tinubu, who is now believed to be nursing presidential aspiration in 2023 and himself, but couldn’t convince them.

He wrote, “President Jonathan, immediately after the meeting (with political parties), called Bola Tinubu aside into a lobby to broach the matter of ACN support for a choice of who would become the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

“That same day, President Jonathan talked to me on phone about the same matter. He disclosed that PDP had zoned the position to the South-West but that only one Muraina and another Mulika won elections on PDP ticket from the zone into the House of Representatives.

https://tribuneonlineng.com/how-we-foiled-jonathans-effort-to-make-mulika-adeola-speaker-akande-reveals/

guass:
Atiku will win NorthEast and NorthWest while Tinubu will win SouthWest. His Excellency P. O. will win SouthEast, SouthSouth and North Central. P. O. will still win the most populated States like Lagos, Kano and Rivers where APC will spend big money but the people will vote NDC.

LottiOk:
Nwokem pass d weed wey dey ur hand, maybe I go reason like u when I hit am.

Racoon:
Festus Keyamo Defends Tinubu From Drug Trafficking, Says Tinubu Mistakenly Shared Flats With Drug Lords

The Minister of State for Labour and Employment, Mr Festus Keyamo, has distanced the All Progressive Congress presidential candidata, Bola Tinubu, from being a drug baron who was involved in the traffic of narcotics in the United States.

Keyamo, who also doubles as APC Presidential Campaign spokesperson, noted that the former governor of Lagos State only shared a block of flat with drug barons about 30 years ago in the US.

His reaction is coming following documents of a Chicago District Court indicting and convicting Tinubu of drug dealings and money laundering in 1993.

The document which emerged online two days ago, described APC standard-bearer as a drug baron, adding that Tinubu entered a plea bargain, leading to the forfeiture of his assets to US authorities in 1993

It was also pointed out that Tinubu forfeited the sum of $460, 000 dollars in his bank account at First Heritage Bank to the US government.

Speaking on Wednesday on Channels TV, Mr Keyamo dismissed such claims, insisting that Tinubu was linked to drug peddlers who were his neighbours.

He said: “What happened was that Tinubu went to open an account. The address which he used in opening the account was the address used by these people. I think some blocks of flats. Maybe, he was happy to be in that block of flats too.

“So, they now link it that the other people they were investigating for narcotics are in the same address used by Asiwaju to open that account.’’

https://www.thenigerianvoice.com/news/313805/festus-keyamo-defends-tinubu-from-drug-trafficking-says-tin.html

 
U.S. court judgement indicts Tinubu for drug trafficking

https://www.google.com/amp/s/businessday.ng/amp/news/article/u-s-court-judgement-indicts-tinubu-for-drug-trafficking/

US Court Releases Documents Linking Tinubu to Largescale Drug Peddling


https://fij.ng/article/us-court-releases-documents-linking-tinubu-to-largescale-drug-peddling/

fergie001:
I always tell you something but you always don't listen.

Peter Obi can only win FCT and/or Nasarawa.
He can never win Kano.

He can't win 25% in any of the 5 States you mentioned.

seunmsg:
Well, I don’t see Obi winning both Kano and Plateau. He will do better in Kano but not win. Kwakwanso of 2023 is not Kwakwanso of 2027. A lot had happened to his movement and a lot of sentiments are now in favour of Atiku as the only realistic northern candidate on the ballot.

Obi did well in plateau in 2023 because of the MM ticket. However, if you combine APC and PDP votes at the time, they got far more votes than Obi. The PDP and APC structure in the state has been merged. A lot of the Christians that voted for Obi in 2023 are no longer scared of Tinubu coming with an Islamization agenda. The National Chairman of APC is a Christian from the state. Between him and the governor, everything possible will be done to win the state. I’m calling Plateau for Tinubu with my full chest.

Sheuns:
Atiku will get 25% in Lagos, Osun and Rivers to say the least.

Akpakomiza2:
Obi actually had boots on ground. Babachir Lawal was stoutly supporting him. Almost all that 105,000 votes came from Christian dominated areas. Binani is a supremacist, she was in APC 2023 yet supported Atiku. Be rest assured that she won't work for obi. Besides, those Muslim votes will mostly go Atiku.
Obi at the height of his popularity couldn't win Benue sir. Governor ortom and over 50% of PDP in Benue supported him yet he still lost. Now, ortom And his followers and even suswan are supporting Tinubu so no chance for obi to win. By now, you should know that Benue votes aren't influenced by insecurity. Besides, insecurity and herdsmen activities have reduced compared to Buhari era. Again, the Muslim- Muslim fear is also gone...

Taraba is Christian dominated. Obi had a chance to win but still lost which means the christians of North East vote differently from those of the north central. Taraba is usually won by the ruling party just like Bayelsa and Akwa ibom. Sani Musa is a Fulani like Binani, he is only interested in his elections. In 2023, he contested under nnpp and couldn't get votes for his fellow Fulani kwankwaso. Obi is on his own. With Taraba governor and the political structure in APC, I think Tinubu will likely win. If obi had people like Danlami ikenya, Sabo kente, Emmanuel bwacha etc, it would have been better.

Kwankwaso as a contestant couldn't get 25% in jigawa, what would he do for Obi? Marafa is working for himself. Zamfara is very conservative, obi has no chance here.

Akpakomiza2:
Atiku will get 25% in osun

seunmsg:
Obi will not win Kano, Plateau and Benue. Nasarawa is 50/50 while I concede FCT to him.

Taraba is now an APC state so it will be a straight fight between Tinubu and Atiku. With the governor and TY Danjuma now backing APC and with most Northern Christians now supporting Mr. President, Tinubu should win Taraba with Atiku coming second. Whatever votes are left won’t be up to 25% for Obi.

Adamawa is Atiku’s home. He will win easily with Tinubu coming second. Tinubu will ride on the party structure and state governor to get 25%. Binani under NDC is not Binani under APC. She can’t deliver 25% to Peter Obi because she’s even backing Atiku for president. She’s in NDC for her own ambition and not Obi’s ambition. Tinubu saw her treacherous behavior in 2023 and that’s why she got no appointment despite her solid performance in the governorship election. Binani is an Atiku girl.


Obi will not get 5% in Zamfara so no need to waste time on that state. Kogi is also APC state. The only opposition in the state is Senator Natasha and she belongs to Wike’s rainbow coalition. Obi won’t get 15% in the state.

Peter Obi did well in Southern Kaduna in 2023. Sadly, he has lost that region to Tinubu. The people of southern Kaduna are Tinubu’s biggest supporters in the north right now. Tinubu will clear that region. Obi won’t get 10% in Kaduna in 2027.

Jigawa is not even in play so no point wasting time dreaming of Obi getting 25%. Kwakwanso himself couldn’t get 25% in the state when he contested for President, is it now Obi that will get 25% there? lol.

AndroBlaze:

So it is a man that became rich through customs and has not run any successful company beside pillaging Nigeria that will now improve the economy and reduce cost of living abi?

A man that is resident in Dubai 300 days out of 365 abi....you are only deceiving those who believe in fairytales

Penguin2:
He didn’t get 25% of votes in Lagos 2023, what will give it to him now?

Moroccoguy:
The same osun state that I'm staying or the one you lives

Akpakomiza2:
Where in osun are you

Penguin2:
First, why would Binani support Atiku? Does ADC not have a governorship candidate in Adamawa? Will Atiku support Binani over ADC candidate if he wins? The answer is no. So, Binani knows that her destiny is tied to Obi’s victory in the presidential election. Similarly there are other NDC candidates seeking other elective positions. These people know that Obi has to win for them to win.

In Taraba, I can tell you Obi won but results were changed for Atiku. But with strong NDC candidates Obi’s votes will be protected.

You need to understand that votes were massively manipulated in 2023 because parties believed INEC would transmit votes but that will no longer happen in 2027.

Moroccoguy:
Come Fakunle estate

Penguin2:
I appreciate that you are having a constructive conversation for the first time since forever.

In Adamawa, Tinubu came second with 187k votes even with Binani’s popularity. He has now lost Binani, who would influence the votes? Nuhu Ribadu? And saying Binani will support Atiku is a wild because she knows ADC has governorship candidate. So, if Atiku wins, will he leave ADC candidate to support her?

In Southern Kaduna… there’s no denying the fact that they have fared better under Tinubu than was the situation in 2023 especially with the appointment of Chris Musa and improved security in the region. Whether that will make them support APC is something we will find out in 2027. But we know their historical voting pattern.

And then just to ask you, you really don’t think the hardship Nigerians are suffering will alter the voting sentiments of a lot of the people that voted Tinubu in 2023? Or that is immaterial?

seunmsg:
Binani never worked for Tinubu in 2023. She worked for Atiku who in turned secretly supported her governorship ambition against Fintiri. Why did you think Tinubu refused to give her any appointment despite her strong performance in the governorship election? Same thing happened in Bauchi state.

After the election, Binani quickly joined Atiku in ADC even before Fintiri moved to APC. She knew there was no way she would get APC ticket in 2027.

Adamawa is an interesting state in terms of ethnic and religious composition. The Christians in the state voted for Peter Obi in 2023. The APC structure and minority tribes carried Tinubu to second while Atiku won being the home boy. However, Atiku is Fulani just like Binani. Adamawa minority ethnic groups including the Christians don’t want Fulani dominance.

The outgoing governor has done a lot in empowering the minority ethnic groups in the last four years. He has also been able to merge the APC and PDP structure together. Add Christian votes to the mix, there is no path to victory for Binani.

For the presidential election, Binani will simply support her Fulani elder brother like she did in 2023. Anyone thinking she will work for Peter Obi is simply delusional. She’s an Atiku babe 100%. Governor Fintiri, Ribadu and the now stronger APC structure will deliver for the president.

Overall, Atiku will still win being the home boy. Tinubu will come a close second and get over 25%. Peter Obi won’t get 25% because APC has made strong inroad into the Christian population that voted for him in 2023.



To your other question, Voting is largely rural based in Nigeria. Only few elites who stay in the cities vote based on perceived performance or non- performance. Ethnicity, religion, party structure, community leaders, vote buying etc determines the voting pattern in rural communities. Tinubu will still struggle in FCT, PH city, and other state capitals but those votes will thin out with rural votes just like 2023.

Again, a lot of folks who don’t like Tinubu also did not see Atiku and Peter Obi as better alternatives. So even the votes Tinubu is losing in the cities, the opposition are not getting them.

Penguin2:
It’s funny when I see Atiku supporters grandstanding.

Because until recently when Atiku came back with the lamba of returning subsidy, he was practically inexistent in national discourse. Even the promise to return subsidy is only resonating with northern populace; core north at that. And I think it’s because northerners are used to freebies so much that they will jump on anything that will bring back freebies.

Even with his little resurgence into media conversations, it changes nothing.

Or can Atiku supporters tell us any southern state that Atiku can win in 2027?

Let’s even reduce it to 25% threshold…. How many states in the South can Atiku score 25% of votes cast?

Or is Atiku hoping to win only with votes from the core north? Because even North Central is a shaky ground for him too.

Penguin2:
It’s funny when I see Atiku supporters grandstanding.

Because until recently when Atiku came back with the lamba of returning subsidy, he was practically inexistent in national discourse. Even the promise to return subsidy is only resonating with northern populace; core north at that. And I think it’s because northerners are used to freebies so much that they will jump on anything that will bring back freebies.

Even with his little resurgence into media conversations, it changes nothing.

Or can Atiku supporters tell us any southern state that Atiku can win in 2027?

Let’s even reduce it to 25% threshold…. How many states in the South can Atiku score 25% of votes cast?

Or is Atiku hoping to win only with votes from the core north? Because even North Central is a shaky ground for him too.