₦airaland Forum

Predictor3:
He can win Osun...
He may win another. Let's wait until then

Oh yes, Atiku can win Osun. Lol.
But I am afraid because it's still the turn of the south till 2031, Atiku may not win 25% of votes in another southern state.
Anyone who ignores the fact that zoning of the presidency between the north and the south holds Nigeria intact since 1999, such a person is lying to him/herself.

Penguin2:
It’s funny when I see Atiku supporters grandstanding.

Because until recently when Atiku came back with the lamba of returning subsidy, he was practically inexistent in national discourse. Even the promise to return subsidy is only resonating with northern populace; core north at that. And I think it’s because northerners are used to freebies so much that they will jump on anything that will bring back freebies.

Even with his little resurgence into media conversations, it changes nothing.

Or can Atiku supporters tell us any southern state that Atiku can win in 2027?

Let’s even reduce it to 25% threshold…. How many states in the South can Atiku score 25% of votes cast?

Or is Atiku hoping to win only with votes from the core north? Because even North Central is a shaky ground for him too.

Atiku has no hope in even the north central.

Sheuns:
You want the South to send a clear message, what do you want the north to do?

Remember there’s no united South.

There is no united north too

AVAVictor1:
He cannot win any state in the southern parts and he will not get 25% required votes from any southern states that is why I said Atiku cannot be declared winner in next year presidential election come 2027 Jan.

Is that because all southern states are selling petrol below N185 and getting dollars at N300, which he promised Nigerians when he grabbed power to make things worse than Buhari did?

onuman:
Oh yes, Atiku can win Osun. Lol.
But I am afraid because it's still the turn of the south till 2031, Atiku may not win 25% of votes in another southern state.
Anyone who ignores the fact that zoning of the presidency between the north and the south holds Nigeria intact since 1999, such a person is lying to him/herself.

On what basis is it the turn of the south until 2031

The fact of the matter is I see Atiku struggling to win just 4 states in the north and he will share the spoils across other states in the north. Atiku had PDP govs last time. He has no incumbent govs this time around. Obi is the only person who has a broad appeal of voters across the country. Obi wins hands down the following states and FCT
Lagos
Kano
Edo
Delta
Anambra
Ebonyi
Abia
Imo
Enugu
Cross River
Benue
Kogi
Plateau
Katsina
FCT.

He will share the spoils in other states. Mark my words Atiku will struggle to get 4 states and he knows it.

Penguin2:
Obi will win:
1) Kano
2) Plateau
3) Benue
4) Nasarawa
5) FCT.

Similarly, Obi will get 25% in:
1) Taraba
2) Adamawa (Binani factor)
3) Zamfara (Marafa factor)
4) Kogi
5) Kaduna (tentative)
6) Jigawa (Kwankwasiya presence but tentative)

Tell me which one is not realistic.

Benue?

Benue people have always voted a Fulani presidential candidate. The Munchi factor. Or are they going to change?

Predictor3:
He can win Osun...
He may win another. Let's wait until then

Osun in the north or which osun are you reffering to?
Kachala man cannot win my state . Ade dancer has already form allegiance with Jagaban.

Omoboricash:
Osun in the north or which osun are you reffering to?
Kachala man cannot win my state . Ade dancer has already form allegiance with Jagaban.

I hope the Okada riders and other artisans in Osogbo that were beating people up for campaigning for Tinubu in the state have stopped doing so?

and yet he came second behind tinubu in the and know that the north totally dont want tinubu you think ....

Penguin2:
It’s funny when I see Atiku supporters grandstanding.

Because until recently when Atiku came back with the lamba of returning subsidy, he was practically inexistent in national discourse. Even the promise to return subsidy is only resonating with northern populace; core north at that. And I think it’s because northerners are used to freebies so much that they will jump on anything that will bring back freebies.

Even with his little resurgence into media conversations, it changes nothing.

Or can Atiku supporters tell us any southern state that Atiku can win in 2027?

Let’s even reduce it to 25% threshold…. How many states in the South can Atiku score 25% of votes cast?

Or is Atiku hoping to win only with votes from the core north? Because even North Central is a shaky ground for him too.

Penguin2:
Saying that Fintiri has merged PDP and APC structure in Adamawa is you being disingenuous.

Why are you deliberately ignoring the fact that Nuhu Ribadu has arm twisted the governor out of APC which made the governor conduct an LG election where APC candidates won zero seats?

Also, it was Ribadu’s candidate, not Fintiri’s, that emerged as APC guber candidate which angered Fintiri.

So, there’s no coalescence of Adamawa stakeholders like you are trying to paint. It’s been fractured.

And lastly I ask you again, ADC has governorship candidate in Adamawa, if Binani works for Atiku and he wins the presidency, for instance, will Atiku leave ADC candidate and support Binani instead? You’re refusing to recognize the fact that Binani and Obi’s destinies are intertwined and she has no choice but to work for him. Same also with other NDC down ballot candidates in Adamawa.

Atiku doesn't give a damn about the ADC candidate. I worked against both Fintiri and Bala Mohammed in favor of APC candidates in 2023. Binani will not work for Obi no matter the situation. You don't have to believe me, the result will speak for itself.

anonimi:
On what basis is it the turn of the south until 2031

Did you not read my last paragraph about zoning, and how rotation of the highest office between regions have preserved civil rule (democracy??) since 1999.

It will for the first time, Tinubu will win Plateau State, APC Chairman factor, Jang is with Tinubu, Obi won in 2023 based on religious sentiments. Bookmark this, Tinubu will win Plateau and the General Elections 2027.

yomi531:
Apc has never won Presidential Elections in Plateau. E no go work bros

Stiv19cuff:
It will for the first time, Tinubu will win Plateau State, APC Chairman factor, Jang is with Tinubu, Obi won in 2023 based on religious sentiments. Bookmark this, Tinubu will win Plateau and the General Elections 2027.

Fingers crossed 🤞

Penguin2:
It’s funny when I see Atiku supporters grandstanding.

Because until recently when Atiku came back with the lamba of returning subsidy, he was practically inexistent in national discourse. Even the promise to return subsidy is only resonating with northern populace; core north at that. And I think it’s because northerners are used to freebies so much that they will jump on anything that will bring back freebies.

Even with his little resurgence into media conversations, it changes nothing.

Or can Atiku supporters tell us any southern state that Atiku can win in 2027?

Let’s even reduce it to 25% threshold…. How many states in the South can Atiku score 25% of votes cast?

Or is Atiku hoping to win only with votes from the core north? Because even North Central is a shaky ground for him too.

Southern vote is inconsequential compared to Northern votes
With the unprecedented sufferings, Nigeria has been plagued to under Tinubu, a reasonable amount of southerners might end voting for Atiku with his recent promise to return subsidy. Poverty has no tribe a d Nigeria are finding it difficult to even feed well.

For your information, I am a southerner and I voted Obi in the last election but I am considering voting Atiku this time around because he seems to be the most experienced out of the contestants to get Nigeria out of the wood in the economy sector.

na these your analysis you go use clean you tears next year

Penguin2:
Obi will win:
1) Kano
2) Plateau
3) Benue
4) Nasarawa
5) FCT.

Similarly, Obi will get 25% in:
1) Taraba
2) Adamawa (Binani factor)
3) Zamfara (Marafa factor)
4) Kogi
5) Kaduna (tentative)
6) Jigawa (Kwankwasiya presence but tentative)

Tell me which one is not realistic.

seunmsg:
The Osun where his party got 17k or which one? lol. He won’t even get 5% in Osun.

Big lie, you seem to have forgotten his wife, Titi is from Osun. He will do well in Osun

fergie001:
I always tell you something but you always don't listen.

Peter Obi can only win FCT and/or Nasarawa.
He can never win Kano.

He can't win 25% in any of the 5 States you mentioned.

He cant win Kano even with Kwankwaso? Kwankwaso is a principality in Kano oh.

seunmsg:
Well, I don’t see Obi winning both Kano and Plateau. He will do better in Kano but not win. Kwakwanso of 2023 is not Kwakwanso of 2027. A lot had happened to his movement and a lot of sentiments are now in favour of Atiku as the only realistic northern candidate on the ballot.

Obi did well in plateau in 2023 because of the MM ticket. However, if you combine APC and PDP votes at the time, they got far more votes than Obi. The PDP and APC structure in the state has been merged. A lot of the Christians that voted for Obi in 2023 are no longer scared of Tinubu coming with an Islamization agenda. The National Chairman of APC is a Christian from the state. Between him and the governor, everything possible will be done to win the state. I’m calling Plateau for Tinubu with my full chest.

Exactly, Nantawe is an heavy weight in Plateau....

AMINDA:
Presidential elections go beyond winning states. All 3 candidates only won 12 states each in 2023 but Tinubu's margin of victory was only 1.9m (the least ever in the history of this country). 5.6m out of Tinubu’s total 8m votes came from the North. Only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes was from the South. It is possible for a candidate to not win a single state and still emerge president. All things being equal, Atiku is set to emerge with the highest number of votes cast on the first ballot and that's the worst case scenario. These are still early days but Atiku is the only opposition with the momentum as at today.

Don't forget Atiku had the PDP structure bar the G5 with him in 2023. But he does not have such now. He doesn't have the momentum. The election is between Tinubu and Obi.

Penguin2:
It’s funny when I see Atiku supporters grandstanding.

Because until recently when Atiku came back with the lamba of returning subsidy, he was practically inexistent in national discourse. Even the promise to return subsidy is only resonating with northern populace; core north at that. And I think it’s because northerners are used to freebies so much that they will jump on anything that will bring back freebies.

Even with his little resurgence into media conversations, it changes nothing.

Or can Atiku supporters tell us any southern state that Atiku can win in 2027?

Let’s even reduce it to 25% threshold…. How many states in the South can Atiku score 25% of votes cast?

Or is Atiku hoping to win only with votes from the core north? Because even North Central is a shaky ground for him too.

I've challenged Bolaji Abdullahi ADC on this before to mention one state in the entire south and north central that he thinks Atiku could get 25%. He was not direct bcoz he had nothing to say. He said we should allow Jan 16 to come first.

Predictor3:
He can win Osun...
He may win another. Let's wait until then

Sebi ,Osun na your State,abi- Awon elenu lip 👄 service only.
•Has your Atiku returned the $16- BILLIONS DOLLARS MONEY ( Not Naira)- NEPA/DISCOS Loan Money 💰 🤑 ?
• Has Your Atiku Gone to Court to Challenge OBJ Book 📚 titled ' My Watch' n all he did to Nigeria Public Companies - through Privatisation Exercises and his Members of the Committee?
Nigerians Are Waiting For Him!

None. Zero. Zilch.

Actually, in his dream may be he will win all of SW, SE and SS because of Amaechi.

onuman:
Did you not read my last paragraph about zoning, and how rotation of the highest office between regions have preserved civil rule (democracy??) since 1999.

Was there rotation in 2011 when Jonathan was elected?

Was there rotation in 2015 when Tinubu asked Buhari to make Jonathan a one term president?

By next year, southerners would have had 17 years as president unlike the north with 11 years due to Atiku's 2003 error of being loyal to Obasanjo when Baba Iyabo was reminded of his one term promise to be like Mandela.

So again, what is the basis of this rotation after two tenures

aieromon:
According to sources available to us that time, Obasanjo said he will do a single term but after that, he decided to go for second term. I was physically present at Rivers state Governor’s Lodge when the heat became too much and Obasanjo in the presence of all of us knelt down in front of Atiku begging him to allow him do a second term. I think that was how Atiku missed the opportunity by agreeing to Obasanjo’s plea. His thought was that at least, if Obasanjo completes his second term, he will hand over to him but you all know the story of Third Term Agenda and that was how they fell apart. Atiku had the best opportunity to become president in 2003 and lost it. He had the support of PDP governors then.

https://independent.ng/atiku-lost-opportunity-become-president-2003-idahosa/

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Around November 2002, 15 of the 21 Governors from the PDP including me, had an ad hoc meeting at my lodge in Abuja to decide who should be nominated by the Governors Committee for election by PDP as the presidential nominee for the 2003 Election.

The Governors Committee decided almost unanimously to get a new candidate instead of President Obasanjo as the Committee was of the view that because of his military background, he was intolerant of dissent and had displayed very dictatorial and vindictive tendencies against those he perceived to be independent-minded and disloyal to him.

Immediately after the Governors meeting, I led the delegation of Governors to meet the then PDP Chairman, Chief Audu Ogbeh, at his residence around 2 am.

As the leader of the delegation, I spoke and communicated the views of the Governors to the Chairman, which was that the Governors had decided not to support President Obasanjo as PDPs nominee for the 2003 General Election.

The party chairman tried to persuade us to review our decision but when he saw our resolve, he told us that he would inform the President. I was later informed by Chief Audu Ogbeh that after we left his house he put an urgent call to the President and informed him of our decision.

What then followed were intense consultations before the PDP annual convention which took place in January 2003. Two days before the party convention, the Governors had a breakfast meeting with President Obasanjo.

I recall that at that meeting, the then Vice President Alhaji Abubakar Atiku told the President in the presence of the Governors that he was known to be very dictatorial, vindictive and unforgiving. The President appealed to the Governors to support him and assured both the Governors and the party leadership that if he was allowed to continue for the second term, he would adopt a more democratic approach.

On the basis of the President's assurance, given at that breakfast meeting, I led the move for the Governors to support his presidential nomination for the second term. However, notwithstanding my support for President Obasanjo's nomination for a second term, the President after the nomination, acted very shabbily towards me.

When I met him soon after the convention, he told me that he had learned that I had put forward the view that he was unsellable, unmarketable and unelectable. He then vowed that he was going to make sure that I was unsellable, unmarketable and unelectable.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2009/09/ibori-fights-back/

Atiku Camp - Visit Wikileaks and type the following in the search bar NIGERIA: DID VP ATIKU OUTFOX BABANGIDA AND OBASANJO DURING THE PDP CONVENTION?

According to Adesanya, Atiku met the governors the first day of the convention; they urged him to leave Obasanjo and seek the nomination himself. Atiku demurred; he also deflected the suggestion that he join Ekwueme. Finally, Atiku arranged a meeting between Obasanjo and the now irate governors. The governors railed that Obasanjo was hypocritically pursuing them for corruption, while turning a blind eye to corrupt politicians within his own Administration. Atiku supported the governor's position, telling Obasanjo that significant corruption was not the exclusive ambit of the governors and that serious transgressions occurred in the executive branch: he said it would be unjust to focus exclusively on gubernatorial excesses. Assuming the role of mediator, Atiku then asked both sides to affirm their mutual support and cease the antagonism being fueled by elements that wanted to destroy the PDP. The governors agreed to bury the hatchet, if Obasanjo would shelve the dossiers. Having demonstrated his influence with the governors, Atiku continued to play coy with Obasanjo.

In the end, Atiku extracted an extraordinary concession from the President. Obasanjo agreed to relinquish the entire domestic agenda to Atiku, including the appointment of key economic policy-makers. Since Obasanjo focused on the world arena during his first term and aspired for recognition as an international statesman, Atiku said that is where he would like Obasanjo's attentions to remain. Obasanjo would serve the role of a "super Foreign Minister" and ceremonial Head of State. As Adesanya understood the agreement, Atiku would be allowed to direct domestic economic policy while Obasanjo busied himself with debt relief, NEPAD, conflict resolution and other measures to shore up Nigeria's image abroad.

OBJ camp - visit Wikileaks and type the following in the search bar NIGERIA: DIFFERENT INSIDER VIEWS ON THE PDP CONVENTION

The President was dazed, Abayomi recalled. Jarred by the unexpected possibility of defeat, the usually know-it-all Obasanjo eagerly solicited counsel on how to escape the closing vise. Early that day, the dominant theme was to seek a court injunction postponing the convention. Proponents suggested the delay to afford Obasanjo time to marshal support and undermine Ekwueme's momentum. However, this idea was ultimately discarded, partially because of apprehension over the public's reaction. More importantly, the push for an injunction became less urgent when the President's advisors began to sense their man was regaining ground by the hour.

The President owed much of his recovery to his own tenacity and, at times, shamelessness. He pulled out virtually all the stops to clinch the nomination, according to Abayomi. For most of that day, the President's diet consisted of liberal portions of humble pie. The President pleaded and cajoled; on at least two occasions his eyes welled with emotion as he pursued fence-sitting delegates and governors. However, Obasanjo saved his best to keep Vice President Atiku from defecting.

With rumor swirling that Atiku would opt to run with Ekwueme, Obasanjo wasted no time visiting the Vice President's residence. Obasanjo begged, declaring he would not leave Atiku's home unless the Vice President accompanied him to win back the delegates and governors. The performance had the desired effect. Atiku joined Obasanjo in publicly lobbying the conventioneers. While it might not have been Obasanjo's finest hour it was the defining moment of the convention. What had been a suspenseful contest would now turn into a rout.

onuman:
Oh yes, Atiku can win Osun. Lol.
But I am afraid because it's still the turn of the south till 2031, Atiku may not win 25% of votes in another southern state.
Anyone who ignores the fact that zoning of the presidency between the north and the south holds Nigeria intact since 1999, such a person is lying to him/herself.

How would Atiku win Osun with 17,000 votes?

zegxy:
Big lie, you seem to have forgotten his wife, Titi is from Osun. He will do well in Osun

The same Titi that had been married off over 40 years ago still has a say in Osun politics? Come on, she has never had effect. Atiku won in 2023 bcoz of Adeleke was in PDP and Aregbe maintained his anti Tinubu stance. So, it doesn't have anything to do with Titi.

Was Titi not alive when ADC scored 17,000 last month?

The north won't vote or TPain , insecurity want to finish them, just like GEJ time,again fuel is above 1300 in some part of the north

Manfromlasvegas:
Forget all this long grammar, take it to the bank the election will probably end this way: Tinubu, Obi, Atiku.

Tinubu first because he is the incumbent and I expect him to be competitive (first or second) in every state unlike both obi and Atiku.

zegxy:
Southern vote is inconsequential compared to Northern votes
With the unprecedented sufferings, Nigeria has been plagued to under Tinubu, a reasonable amount of southerners might end voting for Atiku with his recent promise to return subsidy. Poverty has no tribe a d Nigeria are finding it difficult to even feed well.

For your information, I am a southerner and I voted Obi in the last election but I am considering voting Atiku this time around because he seems to be the most experienced out of the contestants to get Nigeria out of the wood in the economy sector.

There are many Southerners like you who would do the same in 2027. Obi really fumbled on his position on fuel subsidy. He has lost a lot of followers as a result while putting his die-hard supporters in an awkward situation where they find themselves defending Tinubu.

May be state of emergency

Adamawa south

The 2027 battle is between Obi and atiku. Tinubu has already lost out especially as 80% of of his votes came from the north.