₦airaland Forum

Tareq1105:
I've challenged Bolaji Abdullahi ADC on this before to mention one state in the entire south and north central that he thinks Atiku could get 25%. He was not direct bcoz he had nothing to say. He said we should allow Jan 16 to come first.

Lol! Maybe they’re hoping to manufacture it from the sky when January 16 comes.

zegxy:
Southern vote is inconsequential compared to Northern votes
With the unprecedented sufferings, Nigeria has been plagued to under Tinubu, a reasonable amount of southerners might end voting for Atiku with his recent promise to return subsidy. Poverty has no tribe a d Nigeria are finding it difficult to even feed well.

For your information, I am a southerner and I voted Obi in the last election but I am considering voting Atiku this time around because he seems to be the most experienced out of the contestants to get Nigeria out of the wood in the economy sector.

The question you should ask yourself is, if Atiku returns subsidy, will it be permanent?

Or after some years they will remove the subsidy again and we start this suffering again?

Is that what you want to vote for?

seunmsg:
Atiku doesn't give a damn about the ADC candidate. I worked against both Fintiri and Bala Mohammed in favor of APC candidates in 2023. Binani will not work for Obi no matter the situation. You don't have to believe me, the result will speak for itself.

Well, without Binani, and in an election that LP had no serious candidate in Adamawa, Obi scored over 100k votes and you think that will now diminish?

onuman:
Benue?

Benue people have always voted a Fulani presidential candidate. The Munchi factor. Or are they going to change?

Obi won Benue in 2023 and they changed the result against him.

He will win it again.

Sleekfingers:
In Delta state, Osun state, and Oyo state

In 2023, his running mate, Okowa, was from Delta but he couldn’t win it. I doubt he even saw 25% of votes cast. What makes you think that will change now? What are the feelers on ground to support such?

Penguin2:
Obi won Benue in 2023 and they changed the result against him.

He will win it again.

Not without Ortom

Penguin2:
In 2023, his running mate, Okowa, was from Delta but he couldn’t win it. I doubt he even saw 25% of votes cast. What makes you think that will change now? What are the feelers on ground to support such?

He will definitely get 25% in those states aforementioned.

AMINDA:
If the 2027 elections become regionalised as you all are desperate to make it become, Atiku will be the candidate with the most advantage, but he is still the only one currently running an issue-based campaign. Atiku won Osun, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom in 2023. If the South are now "wiser" and will no longer vote for him because he suddenly turned a Northerner in 2027, what makes you think Northerners are still "foolish?". Abi una think say Atiku na orphan? Na person born Atiku too na.

He will only win NE if people turn tribal, there is no one North again.

Bluntemperor:
Sebi ,Osun na your State,abi- Awon elenu lip 👄 service only.
•Has your Atiku returned the $16- BILLIONS DOLLARS MONEY ( Not Naira)- NEPA/DISCOS Loan Money 💰 🤑 ?
• Has Your Atiku Gone to Court to Challenge OBJ Book 📚 titled ' My Watch' n all he did to Nigeria Public Companies - through Privatisation Exercises and his Members of the Committee?
Nigerians Are Waiting For Him!

I'm from Osun and we are just having a conversation here. If you can't debate without insults maybe you should keep your mouth shut.

How did Atiku win Osun in the last election and how did your Tinubu lose Lagos inspire of all the thugs deployed?

AMINDA:
If the 2027 elections become regionalised as you all are desperate to make it become, Atiku will be the candidate with the most advantage, but he is still the only one currently running an issue-based campaign. Atiku won Osun, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom in 2023. If the South are now "wiser" and will no longer vote for him because he suddenly turned a Northerner in 2027, what makes you think Northerners are still "foolish?". Abi una think say Atiku na orphan? Na person born Atiku too na.

We

You no really get the logic of the matter, how would he be declared winner if he failed to secured 25% from entire southern states and his opponents in APC with a magnificent structure in the North comfortably secure 25% in entire North? The margins will never favour him if that happened, because northern votes will be share among 3 leading candidates, while the south would probably be share by Tinubu and Obi. The only way Atiku can win is to share good numbers southern votes with other two candidates.

As for your last sentence, it is not about Northerners being foolish, those eying 2031 presidency will not fold their arms and allow Atiku to take over and kill their ambitions. Party members waiting for various opportunities, their families members and associates who benefits from them won't vote for Atiku and block their daily breads. Same way some southern politicians are working to be president despite having a president from the south, is the same way those in APC, who are 90% of entire northern politicians will never throw away their chances away for Atiku (for what na). This thing is common sense for those who care to listen.

Penguin2:
Lol!

Obi won Plateau, Nasarawa and FCT in 2023, can you point to any change in reality that shows he can’t retain these 3 states in 2027?

Kwankwaso is a god in Kano, and wherever he is that’s where Kano people goes. And I’m not relying on just historical evidence but also a little research into what is going on in Kano will tell you the atmosphere in the state. But just to ask you, if you say Obi can’t win Kano, Then who would?

Then for the rest of the states… Obi won Benue in 2023 but it was rigged for Tinubu. Out of 23 LGA, Obi won 15 and Tinubu only won 8.

In Zamfara, I can see the activities of Kabiru Marafa who is quite popular in the state, and I believe he can influence at least 25% of votes for NDC in the presidential election.


Taraba voted for Obi in 2023 but because of lack of boot on ground to protect votes, results were changed for Atiku. Obi will still see 25% of the state’s votes if it’s protected. Let me also add that the current NDC governorship candidate was NNPP governorship candidate in 2023 and he came second just behind Agbu Kefas.

In Adamawa, Binani went toe to toe with a sitting governor in 2023, and you think she can’t mobilize 25% of votes for her presidential candidate? Add that also that Obi is already popular in the Christian communities of the state.

So, I don’t see any of what I said being unrealistic.

Lol. Even marafa no go campaign with obi picture. All the former govs of zamfara are in APC, including the gov. If obi see 15%. He shld thank God.

Odin13:
Foolish questions from amateurs and foolish answers to make them happy

Atiku is incoming

He didn't come with pdp sititing governors in the last election, it's now that he will come because he is messiah abi

AMINDA:
Presidential elections go beyond winning states. All 3 candidates only won 12 states each in 2023 but Tinubu's margin of victory was only 1.9m (the least ever in the history of this country). 5.6m out of Tinubu’s total 8m votes came from the North. Only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes was from the South. It is possible for a candidate to not win a single state and still emerge president. All things being equal, Atiku is set to emerge with the highest number of votes cast on the first ballot and that's the worst case scenario. These are still early days but Atiku is the only opposition with the momentum as at today.

I like as you are giving Atiku hope laced with lies.. keep it up. Same Atiku that Got 1.750m votes in the South is what you are falling 800k. Even the 750k on top, this time. He will never see it. He got that because of PDP govs, his VP and DG of his campaign. Now, no foot soldiers to spread his message on any of the states apart from Osun. Make he no use Dele momodu get hope oo. That one just want food.

Penguin2:
First, without boot on ground, Peter Obi scored 105k votes in Adamawa in 2023. Do I need to tell you that he scored more than that but the figures were changed against him? So, Obi is already popular, considerably, in Adamawa. All Binani and her team need to do is protect Obi’s votes and help add some few percentage, and you will see Obi getting his 25%.

Then Benue…. If you say Obi won’t win Benue, then who would? Tinubu that has overseen their slaughter since 2023 or Atiku?

Taraba is a Christian State and a traditional PDP voting state. Obi scored 146k votes in 2023. Atiku who won only scored 189k votes. What has happened that would change this? Also, the current NDC candidate gubernatorial candidate was NNPP gubernatorial candidate in 2023 and came second behind Kefas. Add his influence and that numbers goes even higher.

Then about Zamfara and Jigawa, I can’t say for certain but Kwankwasiya has considerable presence in Jigawa, and Marafa seems to be doing some work in Zamfara. You can’t write them off.

I like as you all give yourself hope. So NDC candidates have values and can influence votes, but governors just have 1 vote and can decide for others. Alright. Keep it up

AMINDA:
I think you should be more worried about Obi than Atiku. I just told you that only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes in 2023 came from the South unlike Tinubu who got 70% of his votes from the North. Atiku won more APC-governed states than he did PDP states. If it's about governors, then it's safe to say that Tinubu has won the elections because APC currently has 31 governors. But we know it's not about governors because Peter Obi had none in 2023 but did reasonably well while Okowa failed to deliver his state as an incumbent and Vice presidential candidate. APC also had 21 governors in 2023, but Tinubu only won 12 states. Only half of those 12 were APC-governed states. Data is stubborn. Like I said, worry more about Obi. Atiku is in good standing, heading into 2027.

The person you quoted simply said that in Osun the most likely beneficiary of votes is Makinde or even Obi( that means Obi is less likely to be) . He mentioned a lot of contenders but you singled out Obi to write long epistles. Can you see clearly the person giving you guys sleepless night. PO has death with corrupt politicians.

Atiku will win all southern states.

AMINDA:
Presidential elections go beyond winning states. All 3 candidates only won 12 states each in 2023 but Tinubu's margin of victory was only 1.9m (the least ever in the history of this country). 5.6m out of Tinubu’s total 8m votes came from the North. Only 800k votes out of Atiku's 6.9m votes was from the South. It is possible for a candidate to not win a single state and still emerge president. All things being equal, Atiku is set to emerge with the highest number of votes cast on the first ballot and that's the worst case scenario. These are still early days but Atiku is the only opposition with the momentum as at today.

That thing dem mix for you to take Dey work well well

AMINDA:
If the 2027 elections become regionalised as you all are desperate to make it become, Atiku will be the candidate with the most advantage, but he is still the only one currently running an issue-based campaign. Atiku won Osun, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom in 2023. If the South are now "wiser" and will no longer vote for him because he suddenly turned a Northerner in 2027, what makes you think Northerners are still "foolish?". Abi una think say Atiku na orphan? Na person born Atiku too na.

Obviously you are a poor student of Nigeria politics. Of al the states that Atiku won in 2023, how many of them were not PDP states as at 2023? And how many of those states are with Atiku by their governors today? If you think Atiku will get 25% in any Southern state, then you had better go and return the money they gave you to comment here. If you are sure, I will put the best of N50million between you and I and see who will be bankrupted for real

Predictor3:
I'm from Osun and we are just having a conversation here. If you can't debate without insults maybe you should keep your mouth shut.

How did Atiku win Osun in the last election and how did your Tinubu lose Lagos inspire of all the thugs deployed?

I dont know the part of Osun that you are from but I can bet you that here in Osun, Atiku will not even get 25% in 2027. Atiku won Osun because of Adeleke. No presidential candidate has ever won Osun if the governor does not support him. Go and check how Nuru Ribadu won Osun among other states. With Adeleke now supporting Tinubu, let's see how Atiku will get even 25% in 2027

Penguin2:
Well, without Binani, and in an election that LP had no serious candidate in Adamawa, Obi scored over 100k votes and you think that will now diminish?

Well, let’s wait and see. However, don’t rely on Binani.

Predictor3:
I'm from Osun and we are just having a conversation here. If you can't debate without insults maybe you should keep your mouth shut.
How did Atiku win Osun in the last election and how did your Tinubu lose Lagos inspire of all the thugs deployed?

So, you are not insulting o,at all- since you just learned how to speak 🗣️ grammar ' you should keep your mouth 👄 shut '
Many of you think that 4- years ago na same today for your lord Politicians - I pity you,if you are still in 2023 forlorn hope randevoiu ,just continue to dream on!

Akpakomiza2:
But Atiku won osun 2023

Adeleke influence in the last election that was the main reason Tinubu seal deal with Adeleke.

Predictor3:
He can win Osun...
He may win another. Let's wait until then

He can't win Osun except if Accord and other parties align with him.

Tinubu just need the 25percent spread in the NE and NW Which the Governors and local Government Chairmen would give him......then SS is and MB is on the Lock down ......This is what Obi wont get in the north and Atiku wont get in the South ......
So you should know who is in his favor
Tinubu would amass the SW votes with a wide margin no body envisaged .........
SS support is going to be masssive

The answer is none. He can't win any state in the south

Otamendi99:
I like as you are giving Atiku hope laced with lies.. keep it up. Same Atiku that Got 1.750m votes in the South is what you are falling 800k. Even the 750k on top, this time. He will never see it. He got that because of PDP govs, his VP and DG of his campaign. Now, no foot soldiers to spread his message on any of the states apart from Osun. Make he no use Dele momodu get hope oo. That one just want food.

5 PDP governors in the south were against Atiku in 2023, Okowa his running mate made no serious impacts or contribution yet he was able to pull 1.75M votes. Only Adeleke of Osun was with Atiku.

The scenario in 2027 will be similar to 2023 and Atiku will likely earn more votes than he did in 2023 because a lot of people will consider voting him because of that subsidy return statement.

Penguin2:
Obi will win:
1) Kano
2) Plateau
3) Benue
4) Nasarawa
5) FCT.

Similarly, Obi will get 25% in:
1) Taraba
2) Adamawa (Binani factor)
3) Zamfara (Marafa factor)
4) Kogi
5) Kaduna (tentative)
6) Jigawa (Kwankwasiya presence but tentative)

Tell me which one is not realistic.

Zamfara. Niger and Kwara seem more realistic. Why is no one talking about Bauchi?

WhizdomXX:
Zamfara. Niger and Kwara seem more realistic. Why is no one talking about Bauchi?

Nothing for obi

Akpakomiza2:
Nothing for obi

I thought we are doing postulation cuz Same thing was said in 2023.

sleekman:
The fact of the matter is I see Atiku struggling to win just 4 states in the north and he will share the spoils across other states in the north. Atiku had PDP govs last time. He has no incumbent govs this time around. Obi is the only person who has a broad appeal of voters across the country. Obi wins hands down the following states and FCT
Lagos
Kano
Edo
Delta
Anambra
Ebonyi
Abia
Imo
Enugu
Cross River
Benue
Kogi
Plateau
Katsina
FCT.

He will share the spoils in other states. Mark my words Atiku will struggle to get 4 states and he knows it.

Kogi and Katsina ke?

WhizdomXX:
I thought we are doing postulation cuz Same thing was said in 2023.

I mean obi can't get 25% in Bauchi or any core northern state outside kano

Sheuns:
5 PDP governors in the south were against Atiku in 2023, Okowa his running mate made no serious impacts or contribution yet he was able to pull 1.75M votes. Only Adeleke of Osun was with Atiku.

The scenario in 2027 will be similar to 2023 and Atiku will likely earn more votes than he did in 2023 because a lot of people will consider voting him because of that subsidy return statement.

Funny and more funnier. I can't remember the 5 govs from the south being angry apart from the G5 govs. But the others contributed financially to support him. Let me tell you one simple truth, Atiku isn't going anywhere, especially in the south. His biggest foot soldiers in the south are amaechi, ihedioha and Aregbesola. I'm in imo state, I will tell you the whole truth, nobody sends him here. Even ihedioha will never campaign for him in his mbaise because of his governorship ambition. I know you have never step your foot in imo state. But relax and watch.