₦airaland Forum

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is expected to publish the final list of candidates contesting the January 16, 2027 presidential and National Assembly elections on Saturday, September 12. Yet, as the election draws closer, two of the major opposition candidates, Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), remain unwilling to step down for each other.



The two candidates will be deluding themselves if they believe they can go into the election individually and defeat the incumbent, President Bola Tinubu. This is not to suggest that Tinubu is unbeatable. His lacklustre performance in his first term may work against him, particularly if the opposition succeeds in turning public dissatisfaction with his administration into votes. But Tinubu has another advantage that should not be underestimated: he is the incumbent president and he belongs to the ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC) which currently boasts of 31 state governors.


Incumbency comes with enormous political advantages in Nigeria. Tinubu has the machinery of the federal government behind him, a nationwide political structure and the resources and visibility that come with occupying the presidency. The APC may have its internal disagreements, but it remains a formidable political machine.


Even if Tinubu himself is not particularly desperate to secure a second term, having already achieved his long-term ambition of becoming the president of Nigeria, those around him have every reason to want him to remain in office. Many of his loyalists, aides, appointees and political associates are benefiting from the current political arrangement. They will certainly not sit back and watch the system that sustains them disappear without a fight. That is why the opposition cannot afford to underestimate the 2027 election.


Last week, FCT Minister Nyesom Wike provided an interesting insight into how he sees the contest. Wike said that he had no option but to work for Tinubu's victory because either Atiku or Obi would "come for my head" or victimise him if the opposition wins. Wike's statement also exposes the personal stakes involved in the 2027 election. For some politicians, the contest is not merely about who becomes president. It is also about who controls the machinery of government and whether political allies and opponents will be protected or held accountable.


There is an old English saying that if you have done nothing wrong, you have nothing to fear. If Wike knows that he has done nothing wrong according to the law and that his hands are clean, then he should have no reason to be afraid. But if he has run foul of the law, then he should know that a day of reckoning must come, irrespective of what happens in the 2027 election. Nobody should be above the law because of the political party in power. As Wike himself can see, some powerful individuals who were untouchable during the administration of the late Muhammadu Buhari are facing the music today.




Let's not deceive ourselves. The reality is that any candidate who wants to defeat Tinubu must do so convincingly. And that can only become easier if the opposition is united behind one candidate. Even with a united opposition, Tinubu will be a hard nut to crack but he can be defeated and the heavens will not fall if that happens.


For Obi's supporters, popularly known as Obidients or OK movement, Atiku is the one who should step down. Their argument is that the presidency is currently the turn of the South and that Obi should be allowed to complete the remaining four years before power returns to the North in 2031. They also point to Obi's repeated promise that he would serve only one term if elected president.


Their position is that Atiku should be patient. If Obi wins in 2027 and keeps his promise, he would leave office after four years, giving the North another opportunity to produce the president in 2031.

But there is a problem with that argument from Atiku's supporters perspective.


Atiku was born in 1946, meaning he would be about 85 years old by 2031. His supporters therefore argue that he cannot simply be expected to wait until then to pursue his presidential ambition, given that age would no longer be on his side. For them, asking Atiku to wait another four years is almost the same as asking him to abandon his presidential ambition.



They also question whether Obi can be trusted to honour his one-term promise once he becomes president. Political promises are easy to make when seeking votes, but keeping such promises after acquiring political power is a different matter.



Atiku's supporters therefore believe that their candidate has every right to contest in 2027. They believe the core North will not vote for Obi even with Rabiu Kwankwaso as his running mate and that Atiku stands the best chance to win in 2027 given the mood of the North towards the Tinubu administration.




They also have another major grievance against Obi. They argue that Obi opted out of the original coalition which eventually birthed the ADC and joined the NDC. Atiku, on the other hand, remained in the coalition and contested its presidential primary, which he won.




I spoke with a chieftain of the ADC on this issue. Not only did he dismiss the G-100 initiative, he also questioned why Atiku should be the one to step down for Obi.


His words "the idea of the G-100 is absolute nonsense and that is why Atiku did not attend their meeting. We spent almost two years to discuss coalition and we agreed that coalition is the ADC . Peter Obi pulled out even before we did primaries and went to NDC. Atiku chose to remain in the coalition and won the primaries. After that, some group of people said they are doing G-100 coalition and are seeking how either Atiku or Obi will step down. Some of these people were not in the original coalition that birthed the ADC. If Peter Obi wanted anyone to step down for him, will he leave the ADC coalition? You cannot leave the original coalition and go to another platform and now you want the coalition to step down for you. Peter Obi who went to NDC is not ready to step down for anybody. Is it Atiku that remained in the original coalition,which is ADC that will step down for him? Will Atiku leave the ADC which is the original coalition and join the NDC?".



That is the dilemma facing the opposition today. Nobody wants to be the first to blink. As a political analyst, I don't see either Atiku or Obi stepping down now because the election is still months away. Everybody will continue to boast that they can win. No serious presidential candidate will willingly tell his supporters in September that he cannot win an election scheduled for January. Doing so would amount to surrendering his bargaining power.


But things could change as the election draws closer. One month or even a few weeks to the election, a candidate may look at the political dynamics and conclude that he cannot win. At that point, any of them could say: having looked at the situation, I know I cannot win; let my supporters go and support the other candidate. That is possible. The question is whether either man will be willing to make that sacrifice. For now, neither appears ready to do so.


With Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi now leading separate opposition platforms, the biggest question confronting the opposition ahead of the 2027 presidential election is no longer whether they can work together, but whether either man is prepared to give up his presidential ambition for the other


The reality is that Atiku and Obi cannot both lead the same opposition campaign and go to the polls divided against a man like Tinubu. One of them will have to eventually convince the other that unity is more important than individual ambition, or they will both have to take their chances separately, something that the ruling party is praying fervently and working assiduously behind the scenes to happen in order to give President Tinubu the advantage.



Akinsuyi, former group politics editor of the Daily Independent, is a member of the Society of Editors, United Kingdom. He can be reached via shabydayo@gmail.com.

https://www.thecable.ng/who-should-step-down-atiku-or-obi/

We can't be preaching unity when one region, Igbos has not not produced president since 1999
Atiku should step down now

bolaayenimo:
We can't be preaching unity when one region, Igbos has not not produced president since 1999
Atiku should step down now

Bola, stop being clever by half. Why did your namesake, Bola Adekunle Tinubu usurp the turn of the Southeast by contesting when he could have stepped down for Obi? He even truncated the turn of a Southsoutherner, Jonathan, by travelling to Daura to convince a retired Buhari to come get rid of his Southern brother. The Southwest have been president for 12 years and Vice president for 8 years. Tinubu still wants additional 4 years and maybe more. It's the turn of the South but which of the South?

Bola Tinubu is also a southerner, or is he from the north?

AMINDA:
Bola, stop being clever by half. Why did your namesake, Bola Adekunle Tinubu usurp the turn of the Southeast by contesting when he could have stepped down for Obi? He even truncated the turn of a Southsoutherner, Jonathan, by travelling to Daura to convince a retired Buhari to come get rid of his Southern brother. The Southwest have been president for 12 years and Vice president for 8 years. Tinubu still wants additional 4 years and maybe more. It's the turn of the South but which of the South?

bolaayenimo:
Bola Tinubu is also a southerner, or is he from the north?

Jonathan was from Uganda abi?

No. He is from South Sudan

AMINDA:
Jonathan was from Uganda abi?

bolaayenimo:
No. He is from South Sudan

Anything aside Tinubu, Nigeria can't function without subsidy. Emilokan is a capitalist, percentages and kickbacks will be his downfall.

bolaayenimo:
We can't be preaching unity when one region, Igbos has not not produced president since 1999
Atiku should step down now

ehn ehn

U are just coming out to say d truth, if u campaign on "it's our turn"....many of us will vote whoever u present but don't tell us it's competence n u are talking about obi.

If u say it's been long u have produced president n it's your turn then bring anybody we will support u but don't tell us u are supporting obi cos u want competence

AMINDA:
Bola, stop being clever by half. Why did your namesake, Bola Adekunle Tinubu usurp the turn of the Southeast by contesting when he could have stepped down for Obi? He even truncated the turn of a Southsoutherner, Jonathan, by travelling to Daura to convince a retired Buhari to come get rid of his Southern brother. The Southwest have been president for 12 years and Vice president for 8 years. Tinubu still wants additional 4 years and maybe more. It's the turn of the South but which of the South?

who made Nigeria turn by turn enterprises?

Dem hold your hand not to campaign abi Dem make law say make u people no campaign?


It's the turn of the south but anyone can take it, after u have messed up yourself with everyone n nobody wants u then u want to use it's your turn bullshit.

For your information, with this your nauseating attitude of insulting everyone once power is coming back to the south in 2039, yorubas will gladly support the south south cos one good turn deserves the other.

They are standing by us now when u people are trying to bring us down, once it time we will stand by them again

Gotocourt:
Anything aside Tinubu, Nigeria can't function without subsidy. Emilokan is a capitalist, percentages and kickbacks will be his downfall.

just say u can't stand a Yoruba man as president,make I burst your brain

Either u like it or not, Tinubu will rule till 2031 cos u are too inconsequential to stop him

BATified2023:
just say u can't stand a Yoruba man as president,make I burst your brain

Either u like it or not, Tinubu will rule till 2031 cos u are too inconsequential to stop him

Oya oya oooo do the needful as the 3 'short' weeks is up

Gentle warning ⚠️

And don't forget the Benwallt account too

SeeWahala:
Oya oya oooo do the needful as the 3 'short' weeks is up

Gentle warning ⚠️

And don't forget the Benwallt account too

what's this clown saying

U can't get any vote in d south west n d north will rather vote a shekau than vote your yes daddy who hates Muslim.

Oya now

BATified2023:
what's this clown saying

U can't get any vote in d south west n d north will rather vote a shekau than vote your yes daddy who hates Muslim.

Oya now

Wetin this one dey talk?

I say block 🚫 me again NOW before I tell you word that will sting your scrotum again

BATified2023:
who made Nigeria turn by turn enterprises?

Dem hold your hand not to campaign abi Dem make law say make u people no campaign?


It's the turn of the south but anyone can take it, after u have messed up yourself with everyone n nobody wants u then u want to use it's your turn bullshit.

For your information, with this your nauseating attitude of insulting everyone once power is coming back to the south in 2039, yorubas will gladly support the south south cos one good turn deserves the other.

They are standing by us now when u people are trying to bring us down, once it time we will stand by them again

But you were always going to do it anyways. Where is Elrufai who made Tinubu president in 2023? You are promising every region and their dog the presidency but Tinubu could only manage to win 4 Yoruba states out of the 17 states in the South. Where did you get the delusion that the Southsouth is standing by you? What happened to handing over to Ribadu? Shettima nko? What about your campaign DG, Yari? You mean Ganduje is dancing for nothing in Kano?

It is insulting to ask Atiku to step down for Obi.

Both of them are terrible and poor politicians who cannot manage political parties or people.

Let them both attend debates organized by G100 and let the opposition vote. In their outing with Kadaria Ahmed towards the 2019 elections, they were both mediocre.

Both of them are not presidential materials.

AMINDA:
But you were always going to do it anyways. Where is Elrufai who made Tinubu president in 2023? You are promising every region and their dog the presidency but Tinubu could only manage to win 4 Yoruba states out of the 17 states in the South. Where did you get the delusion that the Southsouth is standing by you? What happened to handing over to Ribadu? Shettima nko? What about your campaign DG, Yari? You mean Ganduje is dancing for nothing in Kano?

same el rufai that lost 2 senatorial seat to PDP eve as governor?

Y can't same el rufai remove himself from incarceration now?

So where is wike, akpabio n co from?

U can see Tinubu body language shows he doesn't need your 2% inconsequential vote

Buhari called u 2% n won reelection so what's your negotiating power to threaten anyone?

2% noisemakers

Only Atiku/Obi joint ticket can muster any possibility of unseating Tinubu. Atiku can't be a VP again, let Obi take the VP and run with his boss.

And you think Amaechi will accept that?

Bluna:
Only Atiku/Obi joint ticket can muster any possibility of unseating Tinubu. Atiku can't be a VP again, let Obi take the VP and run with his boss.

bolaayenimo:
And you think Amaechi will accept that?

Amaechi is not as popular as obi. I'm not sure he can deliver up to 1 million votes. Obi has millions of followers, Atiku is currently the biggest politician from the North, this is the best combo the opposition can give us, if they truly want to unseat Tinubu

We wouldn't even mind for one political party to present 2 presidential candidates on a merger ballot.

They will still receive beating like someone who stole maggi

Peter Obi Said No — And That May Be the Point

In a recent interview, former Secretary to the Federal Government (SGF), Engr. Babachir Lawal, made a revealing disclosure about the political calculations behind the emerging coalition. According to Lawal, Atiku Abubakar sent him on a mission to persuade Peter Obi to become his running mate once again.

Lawal recounted:

"After sometime of working with him(Atiku), he sent me on a mission. They say you have influence against Peter Obi, I want Peter Obi to come back and be my vice presidential candidate. We will do presidency four years, withing those our years, I will amend the constitution to make presidency six year term. Single term of six years and then we put rotation into the constitution so there's no more dispute and we start from the southeast.

I went and met Peter. It was raining that day. Peter didn't even want me to come because it was raining that day. I woke my driver and my security up and we drove in the rain. And then I told Peter, I'm on a mission of this and this and that, and then he said he didn't like the idea very much"

That account deserves serious attention.

If Lawal's account is accurate, it tells Nigerians something important about the political architecture of the coalition: Atiku Abubakar had already positioned himself as the presidential candidate, while Peter Obi was being approached for the role of deputy.

And therein lies the fundamental issue.

Peter Obi is no longer simply a potential running mate whose political value can be measured by the number of votes he might deliver to another candidate. He has become a political phenomenon in his own right, with a substantial constituency of Nigerians who believe he represents a departure from the political establishment.

Yet the strategy appears to have been to bring him back into the same arrangement that Nigerians had already rejected: Peter Obi as Atiku's running mate.

The proposed inducement was equally extraordinary. According to Lawal's account, Atiku's proposal involved a four-year presidency followed by a constitutional amendment providing for a single six-year presidential term, after which power would rotate, beginning with the Southeast.

Whatever one's political persuasion, Nigerians should pause and examine what this means.

A constitutional arrangement of such magnitude should never be reduced to a private political bargain or presented as an incentive for securing an individual's support. The Constitution belongs to the Nigerian people, not to political actors negotiating electoral advantage.

This is why Peter Obi's reported response is significant.

He said no.

He rejected the offer to once again serve as Atiku Abubakar's deputy, despite the promise that, under the proposed arrangement, he would eventually ascend to the presidency after four years.

That decision should not be dismissed as political naivety. It can equally be interpreted as a refusal to subordinate a broader political vision to the ambitions of an established political order.

Atiku and his allies, including David Mark, Aregbesola and others, may have believed that bringing Peter Obi into the coalition would strengthen their political equation. They may have calculated that the man who has captured the imagination of millions of Nigerians could be persuaded to join their arrangement.

But Peter Obi was not persuaded.

And perhaps that is the point.

The question Nigerians must now ask is not simply who can assemble the biggest coalition of political heavyweights. The more important question is: what exactly is the coalition offering Nigerians?.

Is it a genuine political realignment, or is it another arrangement in which familiar political actors reorganize themselves, negotiate positions and ask Nigerians to once again choose between variations of the same political establishment?.

Nigeria does not merely need another election. Nigeria needs a fundamentally different political direction.

As the country teeters on the brink, we must reorganize our priorities. We must look beyond political titles, party structures, alliances and carefully negotiated arrangements and ask the question that matters most:

In whose hands is the leadership of Nigeria safe?.

Who has the compassion to understand the hardship of ordinary Nigerians?.

Who has the competence to manage a complex economy and a country facing enormous security and institutional challenges?.

Who has the credibility to inspire public confidence?.

Who has the capacity to deliver?.

Who has the character to place the national interest above personal ambition?.

And, ultimately, who has the commitment to build a Nigeria that works for Nigerians rather than another political arrangement that works primarily for politicians?.

For me, the answer remains unequivocal: Peter Gregory Obi.

I am, Ottersberger

BATified2023:
same el rufai that lost 2 senatorial seat to PDP eve as governor?

Y can't same el rufai remove himself from incarceration now?

So where is wike, akpabio n co from?

U can see Tinubu body language shows he doesn't need your 2% inconsequential vote

Buhari called u 2% n won reelection so what's your negotiating power to threaten anyone?

2% noisemakers

Tinubu has no contribution to his own victory because he lost Lagos, the state he governed and Osun, his state of origin. True or false? No be una again? Y'all ain't beating the allegations.

Just listen to what your leaders and moral compasses are saying. Time is a gentleman.

Who was there with President Tinubu when he couldn’t answer the questions at Chatham House and needed team support?

Who was there with him?

WHO? 🔥🔥😂

— Rufai Oseni pic.twitter.com/Nlavs3WHIU

— Omega X D 𝕏🤴🏽 (@OmegaXDreams) September 7, 2026

Bluna:
Only Atiku/Obi joint ticket can muster any possibility of unseating Tinubu. Atiku can't be a VP again, let Obi take the VP and run with his boss.

Atiku is fast absolving Tinubu's previous Northern bloc while the middlebelt Christians that Obi was holding out on have mostly thrown him under the bus and are already heavily falling for Tinubu's money and are pledging allegiance to his muslim-muslim ticket. What is Obi's excuse for wanting to go solo? Even if you want to attain power to do good with it, sometimes you must first stoop to conquer. Atiku has been a Vice before and Tinubu would have deputised Buhari in 2015 if not for muslim-muslim considerations. Not as many people that voted for Obi in 2023 will be sufficiently motivated to go all out for him again if they cannot see a realistic pathway to his victory. The era of merely playing politics to prove a point is long gone. If you must play, then play to win.

the northerners won't understand all these grammar but i agree with your points

ottersberger:
Peter Obi Said No — And That May Be the Point

In a recent interview, former Secretary to the Federal Government (SGF), Engr. Babachir Lawal, made a revealing disclosure about the political calculations behind the emerging coalition. According to Lawal, Atiku Abubakar sent him on a mission to persuade Peter Obi to become his running mate once again.

Lawal recounted:

"After sometime of working with him(Atiku), he sent me on a mission. They say you have influence against Peter Obi, I want Peter Obi to come back and be my vice presidential candidate. We will do presidency four years, withing those our years, I will amend the constitution to make presidency six year term. Single term of six years and then we put rotation into the constitution so there's no more dispute and we start from the southeast.

I went and met Peter. It was raining that day. Peter didn't even want me to come because it was raining that day. I woke my driver and my security up and we drove in the rain. And then I told Peter, I'm on a mission of this and this and that, and then he said he didn't like the idea very much"

That account deserves serious attention.

If Lawal's account is accurate, it tells Nigerians something important about the political architecture of the coalition: Atiku Abubakar had already positioned himself as the presidential candidate, while Peter Obi was being approached for the role of deputy.

And therein lies the fundamental issue.

Peter Obi is no longer simply a potential running mate whose political value can be measured by the number of votes he might deliver to another candidate. He has become a political phenomenon in his own right, with a substantial constituency of Nigerians who believe he represents a departure from the political establishment.

Yet the strategy appears to have been to bring him back into the same arrangement that Nigerians had already rejected: Peter Obi as Atiku's running mate.

The proposed inducement was equally extraordinary. According to Lawal's account, Atiku's proposal involved a four-year presidency followed by a constitutional amendment providing for a single six-year presidential term, after which power would rotate, beginning with the Southeast.

Whatever one's political persuasion, Nigerians should pause and examine what this means.

A constitutional arrangement of such magnitude should never be reduced to a private political bargain or presented as an incentive for securing an individual's support. The Constitution belongs to the Nigerian people, not to political actors negotiating electoral advantage.

This is why Peter Obi's reported response is significant.

He said no.

He rejected the offer to once again serve as Atiku Abubakar's deputy, despite the promise that, under the proposed arrangement, he would eventually ascend to the presidency after four years.

That decision should not be dismissed as political naivety. It can equally be interpreted as a refusal to subordinate a broader political vision to the ambitions of an established political order.

Atiku and his allies, including David Mark, Aregbesola and others, may have believed that bringing Peter Obi into the coalition would strengthen their political equation. They may have calculated that the man who has captured the imagination of millions of Nigerians could be persuaded to join their arrangement.

But Peter Obi was not persuaded.

And perhaps that is the point.

The question Nigerians must now ask is not simply who can assemble the biggest coalition of political heavyweights. The more important question is: what exactly is the coalition offering Nigerians?.

Is it a genuine political realignment, or is it another arrangement in which familiar political actors reorganize themselves, negotiate positions and ask Nigerians to once again choose between variations of the same political establishment?.

Nigeria does not merely need another election. Nigeria needs a fundamentally different political direction.

As the country teeters on the brink, we must reorganize our priorities. We must look beyond political titles, party structures, alliances and carefully negotiated arrangements and ask the question that matters most:

In whose hands is the leadership of Nigeria safe?.

Who has the compassion to understand the hardship of ordinary Nigerians?.

Who has the competence to manage a complex economy and a country facing enormous security and institutional challenges?.

Who has the credibility to inspire public confidence?.

Who has the capacity to deliver?.

Who has the character to place the national interest above personal ambition?.

And, ultimately, who has the commitment to build a Nigeria that works for Nigerians rather than another political arrangement that works primarily for politicians?.

For me, the answer remains unequivocal: Peter Gregory Obi.

I am, Ottersberger

Let us be clear: Atiku Abubakar has no verifiable pathway to winning this election without Peter Obi. Peter Obi, on the other hand, has a political constituency that exists independently of Atiku. That is the uncomfortable truth Atiku's supporters must confront.

This is not an insult to Atiku, nor is it an attempt to diminish his political experience. It is simply an assessment of the electoral arithmetic as it stands. If this becomes a contest in which every candidate must demonstrate a credible route to 25 percent in enough states and ultimately secure the constitutional threshold required to win, the numbers matter more than political nostalgia, party structures or the size of a coalition photograph.

Atiku's greatest problem is that he has yet to demonstrate what he would offer Nigeria that is fundamentally different from what Nigerians experienced under Muhammadu Buhari and are experiencing under Bola Ahmed Tinubu. After decades at the centre of Nigeria's political establishment, the question is no longer simply whether Atiku can defeat Tinubu. The more important question is: what compelling reason does he give Nigerians to believe that his presidency would take the country in a fundamentally different direction?.

This is not a popularity contest. But if it becomes one, Atiku appears to hold the shorter end of the stick compared to Peter Obi.

Our concern, however, should transcend the narrow question of who can win. The greater question is who is best qualified to unite a deeply divided country and lift Nigeria from the abyss into which years of poor governance, insecurity, economic mismanagement and institutional decay have pushed her?.

That is where the argument becomes even more difficult for Atiku.

Consider the South.

Atiku, as things currently stand, faces an enormous challenge in the region. It is difficult to identify a credible pathway for him to carry any Southern state outright, and the prospect of securing 25 percent in several Southeast and South-South states is even more problematic. The political reality has changed dramatically since 2019 and 2023, and the emergence of Peter Obi has fundamentally altered the electoral landscape.

The Southwest presents another complicated battlefield. With Seyi Makinde potentially emerging as a presidential contender, the political equation becomes even more fragmented. Osun may prove to be an outlier, and in politics, anything can happen. But relying on exceptions is not the same thing as having a credible national pathway to victory.

Then there is the Middle Belt.

Atiku's difficulties there cannot simply be dismissed as ordinary partisan opposition. There is deep-seated distrust in parts of the region arising from perceptions of ethnic and religious politics, particularly surrounding Fulani political dominance and the legacy of the conflicts that have devastated communities across the Middle Belt.

The 2023 election results should have been a warning. Despite the presence of PDP governors and the party's considerable political machinery in parts of the region, Atiku struggled to translate that infrastructure into overwhelming electoral support. If the political conditions that produced those results remain substantially unchanged, why should anyone assume that the numbers will suddenly reverse themselves?.

And this brings us to the North.

Even if Atiku secures a majority of the votes in the Northeast and Northwest, which itself is far from guaranteed, he still faces the fundamental problem of assembling the rest of the country required to win. The presidency of Nigeria cannot be won by simply dominating one section of the country while suffering major deficits everywhere else.

Atiku knows this.

Which raises the uncomfortable question that serious political observers should be willing to ask.

If Atiku's electoral pathway is so dependent on Peter Obi, yet he remains determined to lead the coalition rather than support the candidate with the broader national appeal, what exactly is the objective?.

Is this genuinely about defeating the ruling party and rescuing Nigeria?.

Or is something else at play?.

If the electoral arithmetic makes it increasingly difficult to see how Atiku can win, while his candidacy could potentially divide the opposition vote and make it easier for the incumbent to retain power, Nigerians are entitled to ask whether Atiku is merely playing spoiler.

And if he is playing spoiler, then another, even more disturbing question inevitably follows:

Is Atiku Abubakar, consciously or otherwise, working to the advantage of his longtime friend and political ally, Bola Ahmed Tinubu?.

That question should not be dismissed as conspiracy theory merely because it is uncomfortable. It is a legitimate political question arising from the consequences of the choices being made.

Politics is ultimately about outcomes, not declarations of intent.

A candidate who cannot demonstrate a credible pathway to victory, but whose candidacy can demonstrably fragment the opposition vote, should expect Nigerians to scrutinize his motives, his strategy and the consequences of his continued candidacy.

The central issue, however, remains bigger than Atiku.

Nigeria is in crisis. Nigerians are poorer, more insecure and more distrustful of government than they should be in a country with our enormous human and natural resources. The next election therefore cannot simply be another contest among familiar political elites over who occupies Aso Rock.

It must be a referendum on what kind of Nigeria we want to build.

The question is not who has the longest political résumé.

It is not who has the largest collection of political allies.

It is not who can assemble the most impressive coalition of former officeholders.

The question is much simpler:

Who can unite Nigeria?. Who can restore confidence?. Who has the competence to rebuild the economy, the character to resist the corruption of power, the credibility to command national trust, and the capacity to pull Nigeria back from the abyss?.

That is the question Nigerians should be asking.

And that is why Peter Obi's position in this political equation cannot be reduced to that of somebody's running mate.

He has his own political constituency. He has demonstrated that he can mobilize voters independently. And, more importantly, he represents an alternative political proposition that millions of Nigerians believe is worth considering.

Atiku needs Peter Obi.

The more difficult question for Atiku's supporters is whether Peter Obi needs Atiku.

The electoral arithmetic, at least as it currently stands, suggests that he does not.

I am, Ottersberger

bennybuhari:
the northerners won't understand all these grammar but i agree with your points

That had to be said, and then some. I'm being deliberately verbose.

any one that tells you it is the turn of the south, stone the person

after asking which part of the south

Will Atiku agree to step down after one term? I don't think so

Will Obi also agree to step down after one term?

Yampotatocarrot:
Will Atiku agree to step down after one term? I don't think so

At this stage, Obi needs Atiku's support in the north and vice versa. A divided opposition can never unseat Tinubu

ottersberger:
Let us be clear: Atiku Abubakar has no verifiable pathway to winning this election without Peter Obi. Peter Obi, on the other hand, has a political constituency that exists independently of Atiku. That is the uncomfortable truth Atiku's supporters must confront.

This is not an insult to Atiku, nor is it an attempt to diminish his political experience. It is simply an assessment of the electoral arithmetic as it stands. If this becomes a contest in which every candidate must demonstrate a credible route to 25 percent in enough states and ultimately secure the constitutional threshold required to win, the numbers matter more than political nostalgia, party structures or the size of a coalition photograph.

Atiku's greatest problem is that he has yet to demonstrate what he would offer Nigeria that is fundamentally different from what Nigerians experienced under Muhammadu Buhari and are experiencing under Bola Ahmed Tinubu. After decades at the centre of Nigeria's political establishment, the question is no longer simply whether Atiku can defeat Tinubu. The more important question is: what compelling reason does he give Nigerians to believe that his presidency would take the country in a fundamentally different direction?.

This is not a popularity contest. But if it becomes one, Atiku appears to hold the shorter end of the stick compared to Peter Obi.

Our concern, however, should transcend the narrow question of who can win. The greater question is who is best qualified to unite a deeply divided country and lift Nigeria from the abyss into which years of poor governance, insecurity, economic mismanagement and institutional decay have pushed her?.

That is where the argument becomes even more difficult for Atiku.

Consider the South.

Atiku, as things currently stand, faces an enormous challenge in the region. It is difficult to identify a credible pathway for him to carry any Southern state outright, and the prospect of securing 25 percent in several Southeast and South-South states is even more problematic. The political reality has changed dramatically since 2019 and 2023, and the emergence of Peter Obi has fundamentally altered the electoral landscape.

The Southwest presents another complicated battlefield. With Seyi Makinde potentially emerging as a presidential contender, the political equation becomes even more fragmented. Osun may prove to be an outlier, and in politics, anything can happen. But relying on exceptions is not the same thing as having a credible national pathway to victory.

Then there is the Middle Belt.

Atiku's difficulties there cannot simply be dismissed as ordinary partisan opposition. There is deep-seated distrust in parts of the region arising from perceptions of ethnic and religious politics, particularly surrounding Fulani political dominance and the legacy of the conflicts that have devastated communities across the Middle Belt.

The 2023 election results should have been a warning. Despite the presence of PDP governors and the party's considerable political machinery in parts of the region, Atiku struggled to translate that infrastructure into overwhelming electoral support. If the political conditions that produced those results remain substantially unchanged, why should anyone assume that the numbers will suddenly reverse themselves?.

And this brings us to the North.

Even if Atiku secures a majority of the votes in the Northeast and Northwest, which itself is far from guaranteed, he still faces the fundamental problem of assembling the rest of the country required to win. The presidency of Nigeria cannot be won by simply dominating one section of the country while suffering major deficits everywhere else.

Atiku knows this.

Which raises the uncomfortable question that serious political observers should be willing to ask.

If Atiku's electoral pathway is so dependent on Peter Obi, yet he remains determined to lead the coalition rather than support the candidate with the broader national appeal, what exactly is the objective?.

Is this genuinely about defeating the ruling party and rescuing Nigeria?.

Or is something else at play?.

If the electoral arithmetic makes it increasingly difficult to see how Atiku can win, while his candidacy could potentially divide the opposition vote and make it easier for the incumbent to retain power, Nigerians are entitled to ask whether Atiku is merely playing spoiler.

And if he is playing spoiler, then another, even more disturbing question inevitably follows:

Is Atiku Abubakar, consciously or otherwise, working to the advantage of his longtime friend and political ally, Bola Ahmed Tinubu?.

That question should not be dismissed as conspiracy theory merely because it is uncomfortable. It is a legitimate political question arising from the consequences of the choices being made.

Politics is ultimately about outcomes, not declarations of intent.

A candidate who cannot demonstrate a credible pathway to victory, but whose candidacy can demonstrably fragment the opposition vote, should expect Nigerians to scrutinize his motives, his strategy and the consequences of his continued candidacy.

The central issue, however, remains bigger than Atiku.

Nigeria is in crisis. Nigerians are poorer, more insecure and more distrustful of government than they should be in a country with our enormous human and natural resources. The next election therefore cannot simply be another contest among familiar political elites over who occupies Aso Rock.

It must be a referendum on what kind of Nigeria we want to build.

The question is not who has the longest political résumé.

It is not who has the largest collection of political allies.

It is not who can assemble the most impressive coalition of former officeholders.

The question is much simpler:

Who can unite Nigeria?. Who can restore confidence?. Who has the competence to rebuild the economy, the character to resist the corruption of power, the credibility to command national trust, and the capacity to pull Nigeria back from the abyss?.

That is the question Nigerians should be asking.

And that is why Peter Obi's position in this political equation cannot be reduced to that of somebody's running mate.

He has his own political constituency. He has demonstrated that he can mobilize voters independently. And, more importantly, he represents an alternative political proposition that millions of Nigerians believe is worth considering.

Atiku needs Peter Obi.

The more difficult question for Atiku's supporters is whether Peter Obi needs Atiku.

The electoral arithmetic, at least as it currently stands, suggests that he does not.

I am, Ottersberger

bolaayenimo:
We can't be preaching unity when one region, Igbos has not not produced president since 1999
Atiku should step down now

Complete waste of time mr. mohbadliveson, & ottersberger, the honest truth is that an Igbo man can never be president of The Federal Republic of Nigeria till earliest 2039.

Same way that a Northerner can never be president until 2031.

mohbadliveson:
At this stage, Obi needs Atiku's support in the north and vice versa. A divided opposition can never unseat Tinubu

Looking at it from a regional lens and not a personal lens, who has the most to lose? Even if (big if) Tinubu wins the elections, power will still head North in 2031. A Northern Shettima is already Vice to Tinubu. The only region that hasn't had a foot in the corridor of power since 1999 is the Southeast. The likes of Umahi, Hope and co are only hoping they will be considered for Vice to a Northerner in 2031. But the APC will still tell them that they need to deliver their region in 2027 to make that happen. When Tinubu said Emi lokan in 2023, even Northerners understood because they knew he had sowed. That was why he got 5.6m votes in the North despite being rejected in the South. Why can't the Southeast do the same and have one foot in the door with the best opportunity that they now have to align with the North?