₦airaland Forum

I have been a broker, a financial adviser and a Financial technology expert for more than a decade, I was very disappointed to see everyone buying DANGOTE REFINERY IPO and nobody, not even one expert in the field spoke on the implications of owning a share in the IPO.

DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall so the decided to go public with his refinery IPO. Now let's look at the reality on ground:

1. Why is DANGOTE going public with the IPO?
I know it is hard to believe but you must understand that after the second world War and the formation of OPEC, The global CRUDE OIL supply became an international product i.e the price of a barrel of crude oil in Saudi or Iran or Venezuela will be the same with the Price of a Barrel of CRUDE OIL in Nigeria. Sometimes there are slight differentials in price but the difference is never more or less above or below $20. So with the war raging in the middle east and has driven the price of CRUDE OIL to over $120/barrel, Fuel at the pump has become more expensive and the war will not stop anytime soon and there is a possibility that we will experience an energy crisis due to fuel being very expensive and unaffordable. There is a possibility that a barrel of CRUDE OIL will hit $500/barrel in 3-4yrs. This is part of the process of phrasing out fossil fuel i.e petrol from being used globally like was done in China and being implemented in the UK. So DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall and decided to sell the Petrol refinery to the Nigeria people who ignorantly and blindly rushed it without thinking. Olodo uprising indeed.

2. Will you make profit from the buying into the DANGOTE IPO?
Yes, of course you will. But this is how it will happen; Due to exchange rate differentials, since the war in the middle east and Ukraine_Russia isn't ending anytime soon, it is projected that oil price will continue to go up hence, as oil prices skyrocket and the price of refined oil i.e Fuel at the pumps also continues to rise, you can expect you shares in DANGOTE REFINERY to continue to go up. Basically, as DANGOTE REFINERY SHARES PRICE goes up, cost of living for NIGERIANS WILL GO UP.

3. I see all these content creators and even other Nigerians talking about how they are monitoring DANGOTE trucks and calling DANGOTE, etc
All I have to say is that 99% of Nigerians are olodos. Go and read the agreement, find out what kind of share holder you are and stop disgracing yourselves. When you buy shares in the Dangote Refinery IPO, you become a part-owner of the company, but your role is strictly hands-off. You have no say in the day to day running of the company. #olodouprising.

dmexy33:
I have been a broker, a financial adviser and a Financial technology expert for more than a decade, I was very disappointed to see everyone buying DANGOTE REFINERY IPO and nobody, not even one expert in the field spoke on the implications of owning a share in the IPO.

DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall so the decided to go public with his refinery IPO. Now let's look at the reality on ground:

1. Why is DANGOTE going public with the IPO?
I know it is hard to believe but you must understand that after the second world War and the formation of OPEC, The global CRUDE OIL supply became an international product i.e the price of a barrel of crude oil in Saudi or Iran or Venezuela will be the same with the Price of a Barrel of CRUDE OIL in Nigeria. Sometimes there are slight differentials in price but the difference is never more or less above or below $20. So with the war raging in the middle east and has driven the price of CRUDE OIL to over $120/barrel, Fuel at the pump has become more expensive and the war will not stop anytime soon and there is a possibility that we will experience an energy crisis due to fuel being very expensive and unaffordable. There is a possibility that a barrel of CRUDE OIL will hit $500/barrel in 3-4yrs. This is part of the process of phrasing out fossil fuel i.e petrol from being used globally like was done in China and being implemented in the UK. So DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall and decided to sell the Petrol refinery to the Nigeria people who ignorantly and blindly rushed it without thinking. Olodo uprising indeed.

2. Will you make profit from the buying into the DANGOTE IPO?
Yes, of course you will. But this is how it will happen; Due to exchange rate differentials, since the war in the middle east and Ukraine_Russia isn't ending anytime soon, it is projected that oil price will continue to go up hence, as oil prices skyrocket and the price of refined oil i.e Fuel at the pumps also continues to rise, you can expect you shares in DANGOTE REFINERY to continue to go up. Basically, as DANGOTE REFINERY SHARES PRICE goes up, cost of living for NIGERIANS WILL GO UP.

3. I see all these content creators and even other Nigerians talking about how they are monitoring DANGOTE trucks and calling DANGOTE, etc
All I have to say is that 99% of Nigerians are olodos. Go and read the agreement, find out what kind of share holder you are and stop disgracing yourselves. When you buy shares in the Dangote Refinery IPO, you become a part-owner of the company, but your role is strictly hands-off. You have no say in the day to day running of the company. #olodouprising.

It's a shame really. He made 1.5 trillion in just one hour.

He go use gullible Nigerians become Elon musk everywhere Dangote IPO u go dey hear. Nigerians just like what's trending to follow without good confirmation

When has anything that will truly benefit Nigerians been marketed like this? Banks are flooding our emails with this IPO. We play a lot in this country.

Same way INEC will issue notice about needing ad-hoc staff. But when there is a vacancy in NNPC or CBN no one hears about it.

I have no business with that IPO.

BondRiv:
When has anything that will truly benefit Nigerians been marketed like this? Banks are flooding our emails with this IPO. We play a lot in this country.

Same way INEC will issue notice about needing ad-hoc staff. But when there is a vacancy in NNPC or CBN no one hears about it.

I have no business with that IPO.

He has sold the refinery to the Nigerian public

EmekaBlue:
He go use gullible Nigerians become Elon musk everywhere Dangote IPO u go dey hear. Nigerians just like what's trending to follow with good confirmation

Nah that's the truth up there

dmexy33:
Nah that's the truth up there

I mean without good confirmation

Mr. Broker and Fintech Expert,

You just confidently spew gibberish up there and you even went ahead tagging people as olodo when it is so glaring that reverse is the case.

I did not and do not intend to buy shares in the Dangote Refinery for personal reasons. That does not mean those who choose to invest are gullible. But nonetheless I will give reasons why you're wrong.

1. On the claim that Dangote's investment is poorly timed because the world is moving away from petrol, Your point is flawed because it overlooks the fact that the Dangote Refinery is an integrated petrochemical complex, not a pure petrol plant.

In addition to gasoline, it produces jet fuel for aviation, LPG for households, asphalt for construction, and petrochemical feedstocks for plastics and other industries.

Do you think an experienced industrialist of Aliko Dangote’s track record won't consider market trends?

Global oil demand forecasts from OPEC, EIA, and others all point to continued demand or modest decline not outright phase out that you as an armchair expert just predicted.

2. Your submission that an increase in Dangote refinery share price will result to an increase in cost of living cannot be verified substantially because there is no direct, automatic link between the refinery’s share price and Nigerian living costs. Living costs are influenced by many factors such as exchange rates, fiscal policy, logistics, taxes, and global commodity prices.

It is the job of the government to protect its citizens from economic shocks that might result from global changes in oil prices through subsides and other economic measures as done in other countries.

The two variables do not correlate in any way.

3. That shows that you don't understand Nigerians enough to know that those content are just cruise.

concerning the nature of agreement, it is called passive investment and it is a standard passive equity ownership common worldwide.

it is allows the entrepreneur, management or controlling shareholder to execute strategy without excessive bureaucracy While giving investors access to the company financial benefits.

Investors in such companies trust the founders based on previous track records. Take for instance, investing in Elon Musk's SpaceX and Dangote refinery.


So, to cap it all, before you go about calling people olodo, ensure that you have sufficient knowledge on the matter because all I see is you publicly exposing your ignorance.

Thanks for your attention to this matter.

EmekaBlue:
I mean without good confirmation

Good confirmation 🤣😅

dmexy33:
He has sold the refinery to the Nigerian public

Dangote currently holds 84.34% of the refinery post IPO. How does that means that he has sold the refinery to Nigerians?

It seems you don't understand how this investing of a thing works.

He opened up his business because he needed money for expansion and growing of his company which is the reason most companies go public.

You should rather educate Nigerians who sees their investment as a get rich scheme and a means to get rich fast that it does not work that way.


Infact, they may experience losses which I don't pray for but that should be their investment philosophy.

OAkanni001:
Mr. Broker and Fintech Expert,

You just confidently spew gibberish up there and you even went ahead tagging people as olodo when it is so glaring that reverse is the case.

I did not and do not intend to buy shares in the Dangote Refinery for personal reasons. That does not mean those who choose to invest are gullible. But nonetheless I will give reasons why you're wrong.

1. On the claim that Dangote's investment is poorly timed because the world is moving away from petrol, Your point is flawed because it overlooks the fact that the Dangote Refinery is an integrated petrochemical complex, not a pure petrol plant.

In addition to gasoline, it produces jet fuel for aviation, LPG for households, asphalt for construction, and petrochemical feedstocks for plastics and other industries.

Do you think an experienced industrialist of Aliko Dangote’s track record won't consider market trends?

Global oil demand forecasts from OPEC, EIA, and others all point to continued demand or modest decline not outright phase out that you as an armchair expert just predicted.

2. Your submission that an increase in Dangote refinery share price will result to an increase in cost of living cannot be verified substantially because there is no direct, automatic link between the refinery’s share price and Nigerian living costs. Living costs are influenced by many factors such as exchange rates, fiscal policy, logistics, taxes, and global commodity prices.

It is the job of the government to protect its citizens from economic shocks that might result from global changes in oil prices through subsides and other economic measures as done in other countries.

The two variables do not correlate in any way.

3. That shows that you don't understand Nigerians enough to know that those content are just cruise.

concerning the nature of agreement, it is called passive investment and it is a standard passive equity ownership common worldwide.

it is allows the entrepreneur, management or controlling shareholder to execute strategy without excessive bureaucracy While giving investors access to the company financial benefits.

Investors in such companies trust the founders based on previous track records. Take for instance, investing in Elon Musk's SpaceX and Dangote refinery.


So, to cap it all, before you go about calling people olodo, ensure that you have sufficient knowledge on the matter because all I see is you publicly exposing your ignorance.

Thanks for your attention to this matter.

Every refinery is an integrated petrochemical complex meaning that as it refines for petro, there are other byproduct comes out before petrol which are useful in making other products like clothes, fertilizer, etc does dangote have the comparative advantage to delve into clothes or fertilizer production?

For Dangote refinery to make money, putting into consideration foreign exchange rates, the refinery makes more profit when the cost of fuel at the pumps go up. Let's assume the price of CRUDE OIL goes from $100 to $120 the refinery will buy crude oil from the FG/NNPC at $120, refine it and sell it at a more expensive price.

And there IS NO DOUBT THAT DANGOTE REFINERY IS USELESS AS FUEL IS BEING PHASED OUT GLOBALLY, many countries in the middle east are losing their refineries to war, same applies to RUSSIA/Ukraine, China has completed phased it out, UK & Europe and US are phasing it out gradually. The refinery will eventually become useless.

It's seems youare more angry that I am a BROKER AND FINTECH EXPERT 😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣

OAkanni001:
Dangote currently holds 84.34% of the refinery post IPO. How does that means that he has sold the refinery to Nigerians?

It seems you don't understand how this investing of a thing works.

He opened up his business because he needed money for expansion and growing of his company which is the reason most companies go public.

You should rather educate Nigerians who sees their investment as a get rich scheme and a means to get rich fast that it does not work that way.


Infact, they may experience losses which I don't pray for but that should be their investment philosophy.

84.34%? How? According to the last public records I saw, he barely owned 50% of it, how did it jump to 84.34%? Or is he buying shares of his own company ni? He could have bought off a few investors stakes before the IPO launch but hmmmmmm, this is why people mistrust this guy 👀👀👀👀👀

untoldtruth:
84.34%? How? According to the last public records I saw, he barely owned 50% of it, how did it jump to 84.34%? Or is he buying shares of his own company ni? He could have bought off a few investors stakes before the IPO launch but hmmmmmm, this is why people mistrust this guy 👀👀👀👀👀

This untoldtruth as told by you, can you point us to your source?

dmexy33:
Every refinery is an integrated petrochemical complex meaning that as it refines for petro, there are other byproduct comes out before petrol which are useful in making other products like clothes, fertilizer, etc does dangote have the comparative advantage to delve into clothes or fertilizer production?

For Dangote refinery to make money, putting into consideration foreign exchange rates, the refinery makes more profit when the cost of fuel at the pumps go up. Let's assume the price of CRUDE OIL goes from $100 to $120 the refinery will buy crude oil from the FG/NNPC at $120, refine it and sell it at a more expensive price.

And there IS NO DOUBT THAT DANGOTE REFINERY IS USELESS AS FUEL IS BEING PHASED OUT GLOBALLY, many countries in the middle east are losing their refineries to war, same applies to RUSSIA/Ukraine, China has completed phased it out, UK & Europe and US are phasing it out gradually. The refinery will eventually become useless.

It's seems youare more angry that I am a BROKER AND FINTECH EXPERT 😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣

Concerning your title, anybody can claim to be whatever but the fact is do you have what it takes to back up your claim?

My problem with you is your choice of word by calling others " Olodo"

I never claimed refining other derivates from crude oil to be Dangote's Comparative Advantage. If you could read between the line, you will understand that I'm trying to speak about the diversed revenue streams available to the refinery beyond petrol just like any other refineries in the world.

Secondly, Your point does not in anyway hold water because you're speaking as if Dangote refinery sells to only Nigerians. It's an international firm for crying out loud which means it can source for crude oil beyond Nigeria and sell it outside the shores of Nigeria while still making profit.

Moreover, the company is a major asset to Nigeria because it's a source of FOREX earning. It currently source 60% of its crude from Nigeria, refines it, then sell to the local market and overseas thereby attracting dollars into the economy which will also keep the exchange rate stabilized and strengthen the naira. So it is a blessing to Nigerians not a curse.

NNPC currently sells to Dangote in Naira under the naira-for-crude agreement so it shows you're divorced from reality. Every businesses is established to make a profit so why should Dangote become Santa Claus aka Nigerian Messiah?

If not for the refinery, do you know the kind of trouble Nigeria will have been considering the crises in the Middle East if we were still importing finished products?

The blame should be on your government to stop favouring the refinery "if such exists" and also incentivize other players to establish their own refineries so as to foster competition which will create a market where prices are driven by market forces.

Most of what I mentioned up there are Nigerians and their leaders' headache. As an investor, you are less concerned about that.

On your third point, You just keep making a mockery of yourself. I acknowledged that there is a massive push towards green and alternative energy across the globe but it won't happen overnight, it is a multi decade transition.

Those refineries closed down due to war in the middle East and co is a big advantage to Dangote based on the law of supply and demand. The Europe and The UK are recent market which the refinery is currently exploring.

I repeat Dangote is currently planning to open another refinery in East Africa. Are you telling me that he is blind from market realities or the numerous experts and investors backing him are not seeing the handwriting on the wall?

You said and I quote "China has completed phased it out" with reference to crude. Do you mean the same China currently been hit by the soaring oil prices too according to Al Jazeera and kpler or there is another China elsewhere?

I agrred that the demand for petrol has been weakened. That does not mean it has completely been phased out. They need other derivatives for aviation, heavy transport and other petrochemical allied industries.

I need to reiterate this once more, petrol contribute 42.5% to the company's revenue according to the IPO record. That means that the company has other source of revenue beyond petrol and I can tell you that they are prepared for a world where the world move beyond petrol.

On a final note because I won't keep engaging you anymore, if your concern is that many Nigerians investing did not do diligence research before investing, does not understand what they are investing in and they just jump on the wagon for fear of missing out, your concerns will be valid.

But portraying it as if Dangote is trying to see Nigerians as his escape plan from "an investment gone wrong" type shii or he is trying to operate something similar to a ponzi, is a wrong assertion.

Also, branding Nigerians who choose to invest or promote the company IPO as "olodo" Is too much of a statement to make.

You can have issues that are unclear to you or you disagree with, it fine to put it out there, engage in intellectual discussions on a forum like this rather than label the other party as ignorant on a matter you hold half baked knowledge about.

untoldtruth:
84.34%? How? According to the last public records I saw, he barely owned 50% of it, how did it jump to 84.34%? Or is he buying shares of his own company ni? He could have bought off a few investors stakes before the IPO launch but hmmmmmm, this is why people mistrust this guy 👀👀👀👀👀

At which point in time did his ownership reduced to 50%?

I got my data from the IPO filling and it pegged it at 87.27% before the IPO was released to the general public. The IPO will reduced his shares to 84.34%.


Just like you point out there that you don't trust him, it is fine because many people has alleged that he is a beneficiary of government policies and lot more, which has greatly impacted his success. Example is the CBN role in the construction of the refinery.

I understand that and won't blame someone for holding such position, in fact I also acknowledge their position as true but what I won't do is to call other people olodo for choosing to invest in his company based on unfounded excuses just like the op has done.

OAkanni001:
Concerning your title, anybody can claim to be whatever but the fact is do you have what it takes to back up your claim?

My problem with you is your choice of word by calling others " Olodo"

I never claimed refining other derivates from crude oil to be Dangote's Comparative Advantage. If you could read between the line, you will understand that I'm trying to speak about the diversed revenue streams available to the refinery beyond petrol just like any other refineries in the world.

Secondly, Your point does not in anyway hold water because you're speaking as if Dangote refinery sells to only Nigerians. It's an international firm for crying out loud which means it can source for crude oil beyond Nigeria and sell it outside the shores of Nigeria while still making profit.

Moreover, the company is a major asset to Nigeria because it's a source of FOREX earning. It currently source 60% of its crude from Nigeria, refines it, then sell to the local market and overseas thereby attracting dollars into the economy which will also keep the exchange rate stabilized and strengthen the naira. So it is a blessing to Nigerians not a curse.

NNPC currently sells to Dangote in Naira under the naira-for-crude agreement so it shows you're divorced from reality. Every businesses is established to make a profit so why should Dangote become Santa Claus aka Nigerian Messiah?

If not for the refinery, do you know the kind of trouble Nigeria will have been considering the crises in the Middle East if we were still importing finished products?

The blame should be on your government to stop favouring the refinery "if such exists" and also incentivize other players to establish their own refineries so as to foster competition which will create a market where prices are driven by market forces.

Most of what I mentioned up there are Nigerians and their leaders' headache. As an investor, you are less concerned about that.

On your third point, You just keep making a mockery of yourself. I acknowledged that there is a massive push towards green and alternative energy across the globe but it won't happen overnight, it is a multi decade transition.

Those refineries closed down due to war in the middle East and co is a big advantage to Dangote based on the law of supply and demand. The Europe and The UK are recent market which the refinery is currently exploring.

I repeat Dangote is currently planning to open another refinery in East Africa. Are you telling me that he is blind from market realities or the numerous experts and investors backing him are not seeing the handwriting on the wall?

You said and I quote "China has completed phased it out" with reference to crude. Do you mean the same China currently been hit by the soaring oil prices too according to Al Jazeera and kpler or there is another China elsewhere?

I agrred that the demand for petrol has been weakened. That does not mean it has completely been phased out. They need other derivatives for aviation, heavy transport and other petrochemical allied industries.

I need to reiterate this once more, petrol contribute 42.5% to the company's revenue according to the IPO record. That means that the company has other source of revenue beyond petrol and I can tell you that they are prepared for a world where the world move beyond petrol.

On a final note because I won't keep engaging you anymore, if your concern is that many Nigerians investing did not do diligence research before investing, does not understand what they are investing in and they just jump on the wagon for fear of missing out, your concerns will be valid.

But portraying it as if Dangote is trying to see Nigerians as his escape plan from "an investment gone wrong" type shii or he is trying to operate something similar to a ponzi, is a wrong assertion.

Also, branding Nigerians who choose to invest or promote the company IPO as "olodo" Is too much of a statement to make.

You can have issues that are unclear to you or you disagree with, it fine to put it out there, engage in intellectual discussions on a forum like this rather than label the other party as ignorant on a matter you hold half baked knowledge about.

The bulk of Dangote Refinery revenue comes from selling Refined crude i.e petrol.

Dangote can s3ll to any nation an make profit but you must remember that Oil is an International product, the price of a barrel of crude must be uniform across board safe for some slight differentials in pricing. Nevertheless, the major revenue generating stream is selling refined crude and shareholders will not make much profit if petrol price is stable or falling, For Dangote shareholders to be profitable, the price of CRUDE OIL must continue to skyrocket and as an import based economy, fuel is the lifeblood of our economy, as fuel prices rise, cost of living rise as well, goods and services become more expensive. So as Dangote Refinery shares produces more dividends, it will be offset by the high cost of living.
I said China has completely phased out petrol cars, all cars and motorcycles in China are electric, In the UK the use of fuel powered cars is a problem because there are certain areas you cannot enter and in some areas you pay a huge fine, America is gradually transitioning with Tesla beginning to gain widespread interest. In order to phase out petrol cars globally, petrol has to become unaffordable. Part of being a financial adviser is having the ability to FORCAST future events and I'm telling you right now that FUEL IS ON THE PATH OF BEING UNAFFORDABLE LEADING TO GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS. You always seem to forget that crude oil in an international product. Dangote Refinery ipo will be profitable in the short term but whatever profits shareholders make will be taken from them by an economy with high cost of living.

Assuming I invested 50k during the IPO and after 3 years my 50k has earned dividends to the tune of 500k that is 10x gains, however the price of petrol at the pump is at 10k per liter, did I really make much progress?

I'm calling Nigerians olodo because they jump into things without thinking through it. They like popular culture and following the bandwagon .

dmexy33:
The bulk of Dangote Refinery revenue comes from selling Refined crude i.e petrol.

Dangote can s3ll to any nation an make profit but you must remember that Oil is an International product, the price of a barrel of crude must be uniform across board safe for some slight differentials in pricing. Nevertheless, the major revenue generating stream is selling refined crude and shareholders will not make much profit if petrol price is stable or falling, For Dangote shareholders to be profitable, the price of CRUDE OIL must continue to skyrocket and as an import based economy, fuel is the lifeblood of our economy, as fuel prices rise, cost of living rise as well, goods and services become more expensive. So as Dangote Refinery shares produces more dividends, it will be offset by the high cost of living.
I said China has completely phased out petrol cars, all cars and motorcycles in China are electric, In the UK the use of fuel powered cars is a problem because there are certain areas you cannot enter and in some areas you pay a huge fine, America is gradually transitioning with Tesla beginning to gain widespread interest. In order to phase out petrol cars globally, petrol has to become unaffordable. Part of being a financial adviser is having the ability to FORCAST future events and I'm telling you right now that FUEL IS ON THE PATH OF BEING UNAFFORDABLE LEADING TO GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS. You always seem to forget that crude oil in an international product. Dangote Refinery ipo will be profitable in the short term but whatever profits shareholders make will be taken from them by an economy with high cost of living.

Assuming I invested 50k during the IPO and after 3 years my 50k has earned dividends to the tune of 500k that is 10x gains, however the price of petrol at the pump is at 10k per liter, did I really make much progress?

I'm calling Nigerians olodo because they jump into things without thinking through it. They like popular culture and following the bandwagon .

Like I said, I don't wish to engage you anymore but I will do it this last time.

You keep repeating the same flawed narrative and dressing it up as financial wisdom.

1. On your claim that oil is an international product with uniform pricing and that shareholders can only make real money if crude keeps skyrocketing

Nobody disputes that crude oil is globally priced with minor differentials. What you conveniently ignore is that a refinery does not make its money solely from the absolute price of crude. It makes money from refining margins, the difference between the cost of crude and the selling price of the finished products.

Dangote Refinery is already selling petrol, diesel, jet fuel, LPG and petrochemicals both locally and internationally. Higher crude prices raise product prices, but the company still captures the margin.

Petrol is one of their major revenue stream but it is not the only thing being produced. They can easily diversify their revenue source and the reason petrol is the highest is because it is based on demand.

Modern refining plants are specifically engineered and optimized to maximize production of certain derivatives, some are optimized for Petrol while others are configured to prioritize diesel or jet fuel based on what is most profitable or requested by the market.

Your assertion that shareholders only profit when petrol becomes extremely expensive is simply not how refining economics work.


2. Your China claim is still wrong.

China has not “completely phased out petrol cars.” Electric vehicles are growing rapidly and have reduced petrol demand, but petrol and diesel vehicles are still on Chinese roads in large numbers. The same applies to the UK congestion charges and America’s gradual EV adoption.

China's Hainan plans to ban sales of fuel cars by 2030: https://www. chinadaily. com.cn/a/202607/14/WS6a55f6d4a310986e2b46535a.html

The above is a reputable news outlet announcing a plan by a major city in China to ban sales by 2030 not even the use of petrol cars.

Now quote your source on the outright ban.

Secondly, to phase out petrol cars, I don't understand your "unaffordable" that could eventually lead to a global energy crisis like you predicted.

But I know to discourage the use of petrol cars, government will either place an outright ban making it usage illegal or adopt a less strict approach by increasing tax and tariff to discourage citizens from using them. Those two measures can't lead to energy crisis.

3. On the cost of living argument:

There is still no automatic one-to-one relationship between Dangote Refinery’s share price or dividends and the cost of living for every Nigerian. Living costs are driven by exchange rates, fiscal policy, logistics, multiple taxes, and government decisions not solely by one company’s performance.

So, if you have a good government with solid economic plans to improve the welfare of Nigerians, the shareholder gains while that does not stops the economy from growth and development.

Infact if the refinery reduces Nigeria’s fuel import bill and earns foreign exchange, that is a net positive for the economy, not a curse.
Your 50k-to-500k example with petrol at 10k per litre is pure speculation designed to scare people.

You cannot invent extreme future prices and then declare that any investment gain is automatically wiped out. That is not forecasting; that is fear-mongering. Real financial analysis weighs actual refining margins, product mix, export potential, and the company’s expansion plans, not worst-case scare stories.

Your repeated claim that the only path to shareholder profit is an unaffordable fuel crisis is not supported by how modern refining actually operates and whether he released the shares to the general public or not, his refinery existed already so the IPO does not make much difference as it is less than 4% of the company valuation.


4. On calling Nigerians “olodo”:
You are free to criticise poor research or bandwagon investing. Many people do jump into IPOs without proper due diligence. That does not give you the right to brand an entire group of investors as fools simply because they chose to participate in a legitimate company offering. We've got institutional investors who partook in the exercise. Are you claiming they don't know what they are doing?

I'm done with ya!

dmexy33:
I have been a broker, a financial adviser and a Financial technology expert for more than a decade, I was very disappointed to see everyone buying DANGOTE REFINERY IPO and nobody, not even one expert in the field spoke on the implications of owning a share in the IPO.

DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall so the decided to go public with his refinery IPO. Now let's look at the reality on ground:

1. Why is DANGOTE going public with the IPO?
I know it is hard to believe but you must understand that after the second world War and the formation of OPEC, The global CRUDE OIL supply became an international product i.e the price of a barrel of crude oil in Saudi or Iran or Venezuela will be the same with the Price of a Barrel of CRUDE OIL in Nigeria. Sometimes there are slight differentials in price but the difference is never more or less above or below $20. So with the war raging in the middle east and has driven the price of CRUDE OIL to over $120/barrel, Fuel at the pump has become more expensive and the war will not stop anytime soon and there is a possibility that we will experience an energy crisis due to fuel being very expensive and unaffordable. There is a possibility that a barrel of CRUDE OIL will hit $500/barrel in 3-4yrs. This is part of the process of phrasing out fossil fuel i.e petrol from being used globally like was done in China and being implemented in the UK. So DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall and decided to sell the Petrol refinery to the Nigeria people who ignorantly and blindly rushed it without thinking. Olodo uprising indeed.

2. Will you make profit from the buying into the DANGOTE IPO?
Yes, of course you will. But this is how it will happen; Due to exchange rate differentials, since the war in the middle east and Ukraine_Russia isn't ending anytime soon, it is projected that oil price will continue to go up hence, as oil prices skyrocket and the price of refined oil i.e Fuel at the pumps also continues to rise, you can expect you shares in DANGOTE REFINERY to continue to go up. Basically, as DANGOTE REFINERY SHARES PRICE goes up, cost of living for NIGERIANS WILL GO UP.

3. I see all these content creators and even other Nigerians talking about how they are monitoring DANGOTE trucks and calling DANGOTE, etc
All I have to say is that 99% of Nigerians are olodos. Go and read the agreement, find out what kind of share holder you are and stop disgracing yourselves. When you buy shares in the Dangote Refinery IPO, you become a part-owner of the company, but your role is strictly hands-off. You have no say in the day to day running of the company. #olodouprising.

You just wrote rubbish and doesn't sound like you know anything about financial brokerage.

You admitted that buyers will make money which is the reason they bought the shares yet you're calling yourself olodo.

Also, it's either you don't have sense of humour, or you don't understand sarcasm, or you're just being intelligent by half for you not to understand the jokes by content creators.

Read your write up again and then tell me the reason why you're not the olodo.

OAkanni001:
Mr. Broker and Fintech Expert,

You just confidently spew gibberish up there and you even went ahead tagging people as olodo when it is so glaring that reverse is the case.

I did not and do not intend to buy shares in the Dangote Refinery for personal reasons. That does not mean those who choose to invest are gullible. But nonetheless I will give reasons why you're wrong.

1. On the claim that Dangote's investment is poorly timed because the world is moving away from petrol, Your point is flawed because it overlooks the fact that the Dangote Refinery is an integrated petrochemical complex, not a pure petrol plant.

In addition to gasoline, it produces jet fuel for aviation, LPG for households, asphalt for construction, and petrochemical feedstocks for plastics and other industries.

Do you think an experienced industrialist of Aliko Dangote’s track record won't consider market trends?

Global oil demand forecasts from OPEC, EIA, and others all point to continued demand or modest decline not outright phase out that you as an armchair expert just predicted.

2. Your submission that an increase in Dangote refinery share price will result to an increase in cost of living cannot be verified substantially because there is no direct, automatic link between the refinery’s share price and Nigerian living costs. Living costs are influenced by many factors such as exchange rates, fiscal policy, logistics, taxes, and global commodity prices.

It is the job of the government to protect its citizens from economic shocks that might result from global changes in oil prices through subsides and other economic measures as done in other countries.

The two variables do not correlate in any way.

3. That shows that you don't understand Nigerians enough to know that those content are just cruise.

concerning the nature of agreement, it is called passive investment and it is a standard passive equity ownership common worldwide.

it is allows the entrepreneur, management or controlling shareholder to execute strategy without excessive bureaucracy While giving investors access to the company financial benefits.

Investors in such companies trust the founders based on previous track records. Take for instance, investing in Elon Musk's SpaceX and Dangote refinery.


So, to cap it all, before you go about calling people olodo, ensure that you have sufficient knowledge on the matter because all I see is you publicly exposing your ignorance.

Thanks for your attention to this matter.

I wish I were with u directly to make u understand that he is actually right ...

workchopNG:
You just wrote rubbish and doesn't sound like you know anything about financial brokerage.

You admitted that buyers will make money which is the reason they bought the shares yet you're calling yourself olodo.

Also, it's either you don't have sense of humour, or you don't understand sarcasm, or you're just being intelligent by half for you not to understand the jokes by content creators.

Read your write up again and then tell me the reason why you're not the olodo.

Oga that dangote shit is nonsense, trust the profit u go see will not be worth it,any update that is always loud always end up in fuckery,
That investment is not for middle class or the rich, it is for the wealthy ones, every other people buying that just dey waste their time,someone who is investing 50k cannot be compared to the person I vesting a million dollar, because the profit will be very minute
Putting your money inside Opay and be seeing daily gain is better than buying that rubbish share

Powerbandooo:
Oga that dangote shit is nonsense, trust the profit u go see will not be worth it,any update that is always loud always end up in fuckery,
That investment is not for middle class or the rich, it is for the wealthy ones, every other people buying that just dey waste their time,someone who is investing 50k cannot be compared to the person I vesting a million dollar, because the profit will be very minute
Putting your money inside Opay and be seeing daily gain is better than buying that rubbish share

One thing is sure, you and I do not know what will happen tomorrow. We can't tell if buyers will make profit or loss, that's stock for you. However, I responded to him based on his words, not based on any speculation.

cr7lomo:
I wish I were with u directly to make u understand that he is actually right ...

You don't need to be with me to make your point. Put it out there and let's examine it together.

Powerbandooo:
Oga that dangote shit is nonsense, trust the profit u go see will not be worth it,any update that is always loud always end up in fuckery,
That investment is not for middle class or the rich, it is for the wealthy ones, every other people buying that just dey waste their time,someone who is investing 50k cannot be compared to the person I vesting a million dollar, because the profit will be very minute
Putting your money inside Opay and be seeing daily gain is better than buying that rubbish share

Then you and the OP are almost the same in that you don't understand how the stock market works.

The market is not meant for a quick profit turnaround or a get rich quick scheme.

It is mostly suited as either a retirement plan with investment on a continuous basis like monthly, quarterly or more.

OR.......

You invest one large sum once and for all and live off the dividend annually.

I said earlier that I can't invest in it because I know there are better alternatives out there to make money but I insist that the IPO is not nonsense for those who better understand the market and the company they're investing in.

So, what you will rather say is that most people are getting into something they have little knowledge about not attack the IPO itself.

In fact those wealthy ones might lose too but they understand that it is part of the game.

dmexy33:
I have been a broker, a financial adviser and a Financial technology expert for more than a decade, I was very disappointed to see everyone buying DANGOTE REFINERY IPO and nobody, not even one expert in the field spoke on the implications of owning a share in the IPO.

DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall so the decided to go public with his refinery IPO. Now let's look at the reality on ground:

1. Why is DANGOTE going public with the IPO?
I know it is hard to believe but you must understand that after the second world War and the formation of OPEC, The global CRUDE OIL supply became an international product i.e the price of a barrel of crude oil in Saudi or Iran or Venezuela will be the same with the Price of a Barrel of CRUDE OIL in Nigeria. Sometimes there are slight differentials in price but the difference is never more or less above or below $20. So with the war raging in the middle east and has driven the price of CRUDE OIL to over $120/barrel, Fuel at the pump has become more expensive and the war will not stop anytime soon and there is a possibility that we will experience an energy crisis due to fuel being very expensive and unaffordable. There is a possibility that a barrel of CRUDE OIL will hit $500/barrel in 3-4yrs. This is part of the process of phrasing out fossil fuel i.e petrol from being used globally like was done in China and being implemented in the UK. So DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall and decided to sell the Petrol refinery to the Nigeria people who ignorantly and blindly rushed it without thinking. Olodo uprising indeed.

2. Will you make profit from the buying into the DANGOTE IPO?
Yes, of course you will. But this is how it will happen; Due to exchange rate differentials, since the war in the middle east and Ukraine_Russia isn't ending anytime soon, it is projected that oil price will continue to go up hence, as oil prices skyrocket and the price of refined oil i.e Fuel at the pumps also continues to rise, you can expect you shares in DANGOTE REFINERY to continue to go up. Basically, as DANGOTE REFINERY SHARES PRICE goes up, cost of living for NIGERIANS WILL GO UP.

3. I see all these content creators and even other Nigerians talking about how they are monitoring DANGOTE trucks and calling DANGOTE, etc
All I have to say is that 99% of Nigerians are olodos. Go and read the agreement, find out what kind of share holder you are and stop disgracing yourselves. When you buy shares in the Dangote Refinery IPO, you become a part-owner of the company, but your role is strictly hands-off. You have no say in the day to day running of the company. #olodouprising.

even u when write this thing no get sense.

Could it be that even these his riches came via devices of scamming unsuspecting Nigerians?

You can't just call them gullible for now investment is just like gambling at times just imagine what the networth of the so-called gullible ones who bought BTC when it was 5k USD then. Who knows if the shares will x4 what ever they buy it in the next few years. My only advice is for everyone to do their due diligence before investing in it or wait till 2027 1st quarter financial report of the refinery then check these.
1 Debt to profit ratio : if the debt drastically reduced because of the IPO and not from any other sources of capital inflow then it's a red flag.
2 [b]Capital inflow : [/b]if the capital inflow doesn't justify the profit when compared to the previous year ,or quarters report another big red flag.
The risk factor here is if the Iran-US crisis is resolved before the first quarter of 2027, then the share price will correct itself to its nominal value which is way too below the 5,525 that it's and might not retrace itself back to that price especially if PBAT or the next president is serious about bringing the state refineries back to functioning.

such an investment is for long term investors with a very strong appetite for loss

Them use refinery raise election money for tinubu after tinubu was denied loans

That 2nd term go too sweet
3k fuel loading
25k cement
10k naira for 10units if light

Very soon una go dey tear reform billboard use drink tea

Reform wey don put country for poverty

dmexy33:
I have been a broker, a financial adviser and a Financial technology expert for more than a decade, I was very disappointed to see everyone buying DANGOTE REFINERY IPO and nobody, not even one expert in the field spoke on the implications of owning a share in the IPO.

DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall so the decided to go public with his refinery IPO. Now let's look at the reality on ground:

1. Why is DANGOTE going public with the IPO?
I know it is hard to believe but you must understand that after the second world War and the formation of OPEC, The global CRUDE OIL supply became an international product i.e the price of a barrel of crude oil in Saudi or Iran or Venezuela will be the same with the Price of a Barrel of CRUDE OIL in Nigeria. Sometimes there are slight differentials in price but the difference is never more or less above or below $20. So with the war raging in the middle east and has driven the price of CRUDE OIL to over $120/barrel, Fuel at the pump has become more expensive and the war will not stop anytime soon and there is a possibility that we will experience an energy crisis due to fuel being very expensive and unaffordable. There is a possibility that a barrel of CRUDE OIL will hit $500/barrel in 3-4yrs. This is part of the process of phrasing out fossil fuel i.e petrol from being used globally like was done in China and being implemented in the UK. So DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall and decided to sell the Petrol refinery to the Nigeria people who ignorantly and blindly rushed it without thinking. Olodo uprising indeed.

2. Will you make profit from the buying into the DANGOTE IPO?
Yes, of course you will. But this is how it will happen; Due to exchange rate differentials, since the war in the middle east and Ukraine_Russia isn't ending anytime soon, it is projected that oil price will continue to go up hence, as oil prices skyrocket and the price of refined oil i.e Fuel at the pumps also continues to rise, you can expect you shares in DANGOTE REFINERY to continue to go up. Basically, as DANGOTE REFINERY SHARES PRICE goes up, cost of living for NIGERIANS WILL GO UP.

3. I see all these content creators and even other Nigerians talking about how they are monitoring DANGOTE trucks and calling DANGOTE, etc
All I have to say is that 99% of Nigerians are olodos. Go and read the agreement, find out what kind of share holder you are and stop disgracing yourselves. When you buy shares in the Dangote Refinery IPO, you become a part-owner of the company, but your role is strictly hands-off. You have no say in the day to day running of the company. #olodouprising.

Talk is cheap. You are clearly not successful and that reflected in how you presented your opinions.

Describing investors as gullible alone proves that you are not a professional. You will be reported to CIS, SEC and NGX las las to prove why you insiunuated that Dangote Refinery IPO, approved by the appropriate regulators,is a scam.

This is a disgraceful piece! It is so disgraceful that I have to withhold my concerns on the promise of improved fundamentals by Dangote Refinery. If I do not buy it, it can never be because of your toxic opinions.

I am not a no'er do well so I flee from such company and toxic opinions!

I will be unpleasantly disappointed if Dangote Refinery does not IMMEDIATELY take this matter up with you like Access Bank did with these two women.

dmexy33:
I have been a broker, a financial adviser and a Financial technology expert for more than a decade, I was very disappointed to see everyone buying DANGOTE REFINERY IPO and nobody, not even one expert in the field spoke on the implications of owning a share in the IPO.

DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall so the decided to go public with his refinery IPO. Now let's look at the reality on ground:

1. Why is DANGOTE going public with the IPO?
I know it is hard to believe but you must understand that after the second world War and the formation of OPEC, The global CRUDE OIL supply became an international product i.e the price of a barrel of crude oil in Saudi or Iran or Venezuela will be the same with the Price of a Barrel of CRUDE OIL in Nigeria. Sometimes there are slight differentials in price but the difference is never more or less above or below $20. So with the war raging in the middle east and has driven the price of CRUDE OIL to over $120/barrel, Fuel at the pump has become more expensive and the war will not stop anytime soon and there is a possibility that we will experience an energy crisis due to fuel being very expensive and unaffordable. There is a possibility that a barrel of CRUDE OIL will hit $500/barrel in 3-4yrs. This is part of the process of phrasing out fossil fuel i.e petrol from being used globally like was done in China and being implemented in the UK. So DANGOTE has read the handwriting on the wall and decided to sell the Petrol refinery to the Nigeria people who ignorantly and blindly rushed it without thinking. Olodo uprising indeed.

2. Will you make profit from the buying into the DANGOTE IPO?
Yes, of course you will. But this is how it will happen; Due to exchange rate differentials, since the war in the middle east and Ukraine_Russia isn't ending anytime soon, it is projected that oil price will continue to go up hence, as oil prices skyrocket and the price of refined oil i.e Fuel at the pumps also continues to rise, you can expect you shares in DANGOTE REFINERY to continue to go up. Basically, as DANGOTE REFINERY SHARES PRICE goes up, cost of living for NIGERIANS WILL GO UP.

3. I see all these content creators and even other Nigerians talking about how they are monitoring DANGOTE trucks and calling DANGOTE, etc
All I have to say is that 99% of Nigerians are olodos. Go and read the agreement, find out what kind of share holder you are and stop disgracing yourselves. When you buy shares in the Dangote Refinery IPO, you become a part-owner of the company, but your role is strictly hands-off. You have no say in the day to day running of the company. #olodouprising.

One issue that always amaze me in this forum is that, people always insult each for no reason. Why

Make una Rest na.

This is just the first of many.
This is an African Industrial Revolution.

No matter the odds, you'll eventually be getting dividend in the LONG run.

Why can't we be professional in our submissions? Some people on this forum need to learn how to make an argument and drive home their point. For someone who claims to be a financial expert, this post is just too opinionated and emotional, and it lacks both expertise and knowledge.