₦airaland Forum

Kwara North Set to Surpass Kwara Central as Largest Voting Bloc in 2027 – KMC.

Hamzat says Central’s share may decline to 37% as North rises to 38%

Kwara Must Change (KMC), a prominent pro-democracy group in Kwara State, has projected that Kwara North Senatorial District could emerge as the largest voting bloc in the state by the 2027 general elections, potentially surpassing Kwara Central for the first time in the state’s political history.

In a statement issued by its Convener, Abdulrazaq O Hamzat, the group noted that Kwara Central’s share of the statewide vote has declined steadily from 52 percent in 1999 to about 39 percent in 2023, representing a 13 percentage point reduction in its long-standing electoral dominance, historically driven by the urban population of Ilorin and surrounding areas.

By contrast, Kwara North’s share has increased from 24 percent in 1999 to 36 percent in 2023, marking a 12 percentage point growth over the same period.

Hamzat further observed that while Kwara North and Kwara South recorded similar vote shares in 1999, the North has since outpaced the South by more than 12 percentage points, underlining its steady emergence as a key electoral force in the state.

He noted that this growth is particularly significant given that Kwara North began as the smallest voting bloc among the three senatorial districts.

According to him, the district’s upward trajectory reflects improved grassroots organization, increased voter engagement, and rising political awareness across its largely rural and semi urban communities.

Kwara South, meanwhile, has maintained a relatively stable share, fluctuating between 24 and 26 percent, and continues to play a swing role in statewide elections.

The KMC Convener pointed out that the 2023 elections reduced the gap between Kwara Central and Kwara North to just four percentage points, the narrowest margin recorded in decades, signaling a significant shift in the state’s electoral balance.

He attributed this trend to a combination of demographic changes, voter mobilization efforts, and evolving political behavior, which have enabled Kwara North to steadily expand its share, primarily drawing from Kwara Central and, to a lesser extent, Kwara South, particularly between 2015 and 2023.

Within this period, Kwara North is estimated to have gained approximately four percentage points from Central and about two points from South, consolidating its influence across its five local government areas, Baruten, Edu, Kaiama, Moro, and Patigi.

Looking ahead, KMC projects that Kwara North could secure between 38 and 39 percent of the total vote in 2027, while Kwara Central may decline to 37–38 percent, potentially marking a historic shift in the state’s political structure.

The group noted that even a modest continuation of the current growth rate, estimated at about two percentage points per election cycle, would be sufficient to overturn the existing margin.

According to Hamzat, such a development would reflect a broader transition from population driven dominance to performance driven mobilization, where organization, advocacy, and voter turnout play increasingly decisive roles.

He, however, cautioned that insecurity in parts of Kwara North could pose a challenge to voter mobilization if not effectively addressed.

“This projection should serve as a call to action for all senatorial districts to intensify voter sensitization, registration, and participation efforts,” Hamzat stated.

KMC, which played a notable role during the 2019 “Otoge” political movement and the 2023 election circle, said its projections are based on historical voting patterns, field engagement, and trend analysis.

The group concluded that the rising political momentum in Kwara North could significantly reshape the state’s electoral dynamics, with implications for future alignments, governance representation, and power distribution across the three senatorial districts.

https://newsbreaknaija.com/kwara-north-set-to-surpass-kwara-central-as-largest-voting-bloc-in-2027-kmc/

Towns are getting sacked by their numbers while their leaders are getting abducted and murdered but this is what's important regarding kwara?

Shame!

What's the worth of voters in Nigeria where votes don't count?
Arrangee method is used to select who will be president of Nigeria, after which the selected person is merely ratified in what looks, before foreign observers, like a presidential election.

The same template that says north has more population in Nigeria.

I still wonder why the north has more population, yet the only region with child voters every election year.

I ask, where then are the population?

The lie will still crumble. People are mistaken landmass to mean population.

North may have the landmass, they DO NOT have the most population. North that you can travel for hours and see only one small settlement with a handful of people, then vast lands again with nothing on it.

That statistics is bloated. Let Niger and Chad indigenes return home and let's have a strict census of the north again, without children and ghost registrations.

KMC do not let Kwara central knows that you want to makes it North vs Central,then APC will lose gubernatorial election to PDP in Kwara….Forget fake stats you’re bringing out,Kwara Central determines the winner.

what are their motives?
only time will tell

They have used terrorism to achieve this. That's one of the objective. Bad leaders use terrorism as an effective tool to take political power. It has been working since Buhari first used it

CrownedPhoenix:
The same template that says north has more population in Nigeria.

I still wonder why the north has more population, yet the only region with child voters every election year.

I ask, where then are the population?

The lie will still crumble. People are mistaken landmass to mean population.

North may have the landmass, they DO NOT have the most population. North that you can travel for hours and see only a settlement with a handful of people, then vast lands again with nothing on it.

That statistics is bloated. Let Niger and Chad indigenes return home and let's have a strict census of the north again, without children and ghost registrations.

You're smart, that is why Tinubu will suprise the North this coming election. And I'm very sure this same North would come out to form they voted Tinubu after he has disgraced them.

That's a good development, This will tell Ilorin that they cannot always claim to be the most politically influential in Kwara State. Imagine, done 8 years and still have the political gut to push for Kwara Central candidate to govern again

onuman:
What's the worth of voters in Nigeria where votes don't count?
Arrangee method is used to select who will be president of Nigeria, after which the selected person is merely ratified in what looks, before foreign observers, like a presidential election.

So Adeleke was ratified?
Was tinubu ratified by Jonathan?
Freedom of speech sha
The voter is worth the rice and gala they collect instead of a asking for security

Nairalanders are you aware that ilorin has always been the one with the governorship candidate for a long time now

mycar:
what are their motives?
only time will tell

time will not tell anything they have all been looting they will continue to loot

omoredia:
They have used terrorism to achieve this. That's one of the objective. Bad leaders use terrorism as an effective tool to take political power. It has been working since Buhari first used it

that actually makes them good leaders
it is you that's a bad leader that cannot defend against terrorism
They have achieved their goals it is you that has not achieved yours

CrownedPhoenix:
The same template that says north has more population in Nigeria.

I still wonder why the north has more population, yet the only region with child voters every election year.

I ask, where then are the population?

The lie will still crumble. People are mistaken landmass to mean population.

North may have the landmass, they DO NOT have the most population. North that you can travel for hours and see only a settlement with a handful of people, then vast lands again with nothing on it.

That statistics is bloated. Let Niger and Chad indigenes return home and let's have a strict census of the north again, without children and ghost registrations.

It was 2015 that Buhari used millions of children voters. I met one in 2023 and he can't vote again due to irregularities with the date of birth on his PVC and other docs like NIN and BVN. He couldn't renew his voter's card.

Buhari was just a criminal that was willing to burn the whole of Nigeria if he didn't win.

Deliberating on voting blocs while communities are getting sacked by terrorism is witchcraft.

I have mentioned before that one of the major issues affecting this country is the lack of accountability.

The next issue is wrong priorities.

I don't expect any sane human deliberating on voting blocs, in a state that is currently being ravaged by insecurity.

It shows the people don't matter, only their vote does.

Cromagnon:
that actually makes them good leaders
it is you that's a bad leader that cannot defend against terrorism
They have achieved their goals it is you that has not achieved yours

Leadership is not on the person leading, but on the people being led, which makes your irrational statement flawed.

Killing your own people is not leadership - it is crime and horror.

You are a danger to humanity and need to be put down.

Dillusional. Kwara South is the most populous.

And how does this translate to good governance?

How does this benefit the electorate?

You people will never have sense at this point.

Ask the Kardashians (Kano, Kaduna, Kastina) how it has worked out for them.

Scâllywægs!!!

That abdulram of a governor is a goner

richeeyo:
Nairalanders are you aware that ilorin has always been the one with the governorship candidate for a long time now

That's Half truth,
Abdul fatai Ahmed is from Share, Ifelodun
Is share in ilorin?

faceland:
It was 2015 that Buhari used millions of children voters. I met one in 2023 and he can't vote again due to irregularities with the date of birth on his PVC and other docs like NIN and BVN. He couldn't renew his voter's card.

Buhari was just a criminal that was willing to burn the whole of Nigeria if he didn't win.

It's very obvious north do not have the population they claim.

How can they have the population they claim and still be lining up child voters in their numbers during elections?!! They simply use child voters to cover up the obvious lie.

rapcy:
You're smart, that is why Tinubu will suprise the North this coming election. And I'm very sure this same North would come out to form they voted Tinubu after he has disgraced them.

That anomaly in the statistics needs to be looked into.

The north is hoodwinking the entire country with that population lie!

Is this write being prepared to justify rigging for the on-coming election?

Cmeo:
Is this write being prepared to justify rigging for the on-coming election?

If others let it slide, that's how they'd keep inflating the bogus lie until it becomes an accepted "truth" that can't be overturned.

Just watch how they will then line up underaged kids during elections to make up for the inflated numbers.

CrownedPhoenix:
It's very obvious north do not have the population they claim.

How can they have that population and still be lining up child voters in their numbers?!! They simply use child voters to cover up the obvious lie.

If their was no finger prints, they would have registered cows, chickens and trees.

The issue is Kwara North is not a monolithic zone. There are about four to five very different major ethnicities in the zone. And they don't even necessarily vote the same way

Zouzer:
The issue is Kwara North is not a monolithic zone. There are about four to five very different major ethnicities in the zone. And they don't even necessarily vote the same way

You're right but I think Tapas are the majority there

I don't know who is deceiving APC that kwara north will vote for them. Just last week there was protest in tsaragi under Edu local government concerning the continues abduction going on in the area for long, my little sister Favour was kidnapped in tsaragi for pass 1 month with others that are in the bush for long. Now people moved on after a while after their loved ones are abducted.
Please tell me how APC will win in edu and patigi that many villagers have ran away from their villages, farmers can go to their farms, people live in fear... When ever I remember the situation I became sad 😭

RealityKings1:
That's Half truth,
Abdul fatai Ahmed is from Share, Ifelodun
Is share in ilorin?

They only put him there to take the fall for bukola mismanagement
Which later happened at the end of his tenor