₦airaland Forum

Just passing

Nicklee:
Nigeria's electorate by numbers. Isn't it interesting how charts help accentuate trends, correlations and cluster behaviors? Interesting pop-ups:

1. Combined South East + South South registered voters make up 24% of total voters which is less than the 26% for North West alone.

2. Combined North West + South West voters make up 45% of total registered voters, greater than combined South South + South East + North Central voters which add up to 40% of voters.

I'm still trying to figure where the key battleground states are.

Op, your analysis lacks enough data to make a concrete inference. For example, out of the over 40 million Igbos in Nigeria, only about 15 million of them live in the South East. The remaining en million are captured in your data as belonging to other geopolitical zones. This us true by residence but they'll still vote for GEJ.

That's the reason we ask that states of origin should be captured in the next census. If we had such data, then one can conveniently plot graphs based on the percentage of people from the various regions living in each state. That would give a more believable index.

Buhari would get 25% in north west and north east making 13 states. Buhari would get 25% in all south west states. Totaling 13+6 = 19

Buhari would get 25% in all 6 north central states making it 25 states.

By the time we add Edo. That means he has killed it.

Both Jonathan and Buhari would get 25% of votes in 25 states.

It's the popular votes that would determine the winner and who controls the 6 most populous states

TheClown:
You think Buhari would win the NW? I dey laugh. The earlier the fulanis and their willing slaves realise that nigeria is for everyone, the better for them. We will vote just to prove a point, not because we like the person we would vote for, get that into your heads.

Where did buhari get his 12million votes in 2011 election? This time around, it is operation total vote for buhari. He is getting 95% of votes in north, all what we need is south west state

Sunnybobo3:
Op, your analysis lacks enough data to make a concrete inference. For example, out of the over 40 million Igbos in Nigeria, only about 15 million of them live in the South East. The remaining en million are captured in your data as belonging to other geopolitical zones. This us true by residence but they'll still vote for GEJ.

That's the reason we ask that states of origin should be captured in the next census. If we had such data, then one can conveniently plot graphs based on the percentage of people from the various regions living in each state. That would give a more believable index.

The Ibo population anywhere has never made a difference. In Lagos and Kano where they are concentrated, they have never won even a councillor seat

abu12:
You are talking as if igbo people will stand in polling unit to defend their votes, well it will be nice to see igbo people that day in kano,

IF IT COMES TO RIGGING WHO DO YOU THINK WILL WIN? I LAUGH IN SWAHILI.

raumdeuter:
Buhari would get 25% in north west and north east making 13 states. Buhari would get 25% in all south west states. Totaling 13+6 = 19

Buhari would get 25% in all 6 north central states making it 25 states.

By the time we add Edo. That means he has killed it.

Both Jonathan and Buhari would get 25% of votes in 25 states.

It's the popular votes that would determine the winner and who controls the 6 most populous states

IT IS THE MORE POPULOUS VOTES THAT DETERMINES THE WINNER AND NOT WHO CONTROLS SIX MORE POPULOUS STATES.BUHARI CANNEVER SCORE MORE THAN 60% IN LAGOS AND KADUNNA.THE PERCENTAGE OF VICTORY IS VERY KEY

BTW BUHARI CANNEVER GET 25% IN PLATEAU AND BENEUE AND THE 11 STATES IN THE SE AND SS.tHAT IS 13 STATES ALREADY,SO WHERE IS HE GOING TO GET HIS 25% IN 24 STATES REQUIRED FOR HIM TO ASCEND OFFICE

raumdeuter:
The Ibo population anywhere has never made a difference. In Lagos and Kano where they are concentrated, they have never won even a councillor seat

DO THEY CONTEST FOR ELECTIONS IN LAGOS AND KANO?

statistics do not win matches neither can they win elections. Anyone that says nigeria has not improved under Gej is a liar nd does not deserve any true nigerian's vote

chukwudi44:
highest no of states won do not win eelctions rather highest no of votes cast.This is waht this APC idiots are not seeing.Buhari cannot get 25% in up to 25 states this is because,he wont get it in the SS/SE/BENUE/PLATEAU.

GEJ can secure 25% in all the 17 Southerns states,and also the middle belt including states in the ne and nw like Kadunna,adamawa,and niger.

Buhari might be win in more sattes but the margin of victory wil go along way in determining the winner.While he can barely secure up to 70% victory in his core states ,GEJ will cost home with over 90% of the votes in hs areas of strength

Between 2011 and today, Buhari's popularity has grown. In 2011, he had 25% and above in 19 states (6 short of the needed 25). If you combine ACN and CPC as one, then Buhari has 25% and over in 25 states (FCT included, Kogi rounded up). This is 2011 results.
As things are today, Edo and Rivers states can give Buhari 25% or more. So I think it will come down to total votes.

chukwudi44:
DO THEY CONTEST FOR ELECTIONS IN LAGOS AND KANO?

They contest and the lose woefully

raumdeuter:
They contest and the lose woefully

give me an instance

olapluto:
Between 2011 and today, Buhari's popularity has grown. In 2011, he had 25% and above in 19 states (6 short of the needed 25). If you combine ACN and CPC as one, then Buhari has 25% and over in 25 states (FCT included, Kogi rounded up). This is 2011 results.
As things are today, Edo and Rivers states can give Buhari 25% or more. So I think it will come down to total votes.

I hope you are not relying on the recent online polls to make this projections.if that is what you are banking on,i am sorry for you.Mark my words and Bookmark this page.Buhari cannot secure up to 80% in rivers and edo state.He cannot even get up to 10% in imo state

raumdeuter:
The Ibo population anywhere has never made a difference. In Lagos and Kano where they are concentrated, they have never won even a councillor seat

There are Igbo COUNCILLORS in Lagos state. That I know of. There are also Igbo commissioners and PAs in Lagos and there used to be in Kano don't know if it's still so.

raumdeuter:
The Ibo population anywhere has never made a difference. In Lagos and Kano where they are concentrated, they have never won even a councillor seat

You will wonder why they are yet to win any election in Amuwo-Odofin LG. Most of igbo boys i know, are not register, they are busy selling their goods, only few are register. Many even promise to go back to their home during election period, places like sokoto, kano, zamfara, borno etc will come out with massive votes due to rigging, because GEJ is no longer popular in north again.

[color=#000099][/color]Very flawed, how can North be more than South...Surely there are millions of under-aged registered voters or the goats and cows there have been registered to vote.
The answer is simple, Northerners by the religion and culture marry more than 1 wife and have high number of children while due also to culture and religious beliefs, the Southerners mostly marry one wife and limit their children to 3 or 4.

Sunnybobo3:
There are Igbo COUNCILLORS in Lagos state. That I know of. There are also Igbo commissioners and PAs in Lagos and there used to be in Kano don't know if it's still so.

You are a liar!

There WERE very few Igbo councillors in time past, 1 Igbo commissioner(Ben Akabueze) to date courtesy of Tinubu's selfish ambition and no Igbo PAs.

The best Igbos get is vice chairman(errand boy) of LCDA.

chukwudi44:
I hope you are not relying on the recent online polls to make this projections.if that is what you are banking on,i am sorry for you.Mark my words and Bookmark this page.Buhari cannot secure up to 80% in rivers and edo state.He cannot even get up to 10% in imo state

Apart from the abracadabra in SS and SE election results, the rest are very easy to predict based on current political climate.
Ondo state for example, I believe Buhari will easily get over 25% votes, same thing for Edo and Rivers. The 25% for Buhari this time around is more possible than 2011.

VirginFinder:
You are a liar!

There WERE very few Igbo councillors in time past, 1 Igbo commissioner(Ben Akabueze) to date courtesy of Tinubu's selfish ambition and no Igbo PAs.

The best Igbos get is vice chairman(errand boy) of LCDA.

Say whatever you like, Igbos still make up 45% of Lagos voters. This much was made known by ACN last year.

abu12:
You are talking as if igbo people will stand in polling unit to defend their votes, well it will be nice to see igbo people that day in kano, come out and defend your votes for jonathan

I am a supporter of GMB but I don't support this subtle threat. We want a free and fair election at every corner of the country.

Sunnybobo3:
Say whatever you like, Igbos still make up 45% of Lagos voters. This much was made known by ACN last year.

Yet this 45% population can't produce a local govt chairman. While the minority rule over you.

So what's the use?

chukwudi44:
give me an instance

Do you research.

Apga candidate in Lagos are usually Ibo and they lose regularly

raumdeuter:
Yet this 45% population can't produce a local govt chairman. While the minority rule over you.

So what's the use?

I don't know when 45% became majority. No wonder WAEC results are so bad.

abu12:
You are talking as if igbo people will stand in polling unit to defend their votes, well it will be nice to see igbo people that day in kano, come out and defend your votes for jonathan

What does this mean? Are you threatening violence in Kano for GEJ voters or what?

Sunnybobo3:
I don't know when 45% became majority. No wonder WAEC results are so bad.

In any multi ethnic community where there are more than 10 groups any single one with 45% would be the majority.

In Lagos if Ibo are 45% then Hausa Yoruba calabar ijaw etc all share 55%

No wonder they can't produce an ordinary LG chairman

raumdeuter:
Buhari would get 25% in north west and north east making 13 states. Buhari would get 25% in all south west states. Totaling 13+6 = 19

Buhari would get 25% in all 6 north central states making it 25 states.

By the time we add Edo. That means he has killed it.

Both Jonathan and Buhari would get 25% of votes in 25 states.

It's the popular votes that would determine the winner and who controls the 6 most populous states

Count Ondo and Ekiti state out of the list. GMB cannot have 25% here. I am based here. Atiku is more popular here than GMB so keep dreaming

EldaTimba:
Count Ondo and Ekiti state out of the list. GMB cannot have 25% here. I am based here. Atiku is more popular here than GMB so keep dreaming

You mean if 100 people vote in Those states the APC flagbearer with a strong Yoruba vice president won't get 25 votes in a Yoruba state?

Funny I tell you

raumdeuter:
In any multi ethnic community where there are more than 10 groups any single one with 45% would be the majority.

In Lagos if Ibo are 45% then Hausa Yoruba calabar ijaw etc all share 55%

No wonder they can't produce an ordinary LG chairman

How did you come to that conclusion? State your source of data like I did mine.

Sunnybobo3:
How did you come to that conclusion? State your source if data like I did mine.

What data are you asking about?

Is it that Lagos is multi ethnic? Or what

raumdeuter:
You mean if 100 people vote in Those states the APC flagbearer with a strong Yoruba vice president won't get 25 votes in a Yoruba state?

Funny I tell you

Is Tunde bakare not a yoruba man? APC cannot win ANY election in Ekiti and Ondo state. Ekiti is even worse. APC can't even campaign there again. I am telling you the FACT. In Ondo state, APC has NO party structure. APC of course has technocrats but they lack POLITICIANS. Owo, Aketi's home town doesn't have a campaigner for GMB. Fasawe is a strong man there and he supports Atiku. If GMB wins primary, Atiku switches over to PDM.
For you information, PDM has started mobilization.
Least I forget, Elections are rigged always and PDP was the only party check mating LP before Iroko decamped.




Lastly, like Ngwakwe
said, the minority vocal Swesterners silencing the Majority non-vocal yoruba's love for GEJ.

raumdeuter:
Do you research.

Apga candidate in Lagos are usually Ibo and they lose regularly

How old r u boy? 19?

I asked you for proof of your claim and you ask Me to do research. Are you for real?

Guy election is not win the way the Islamic goat are telling you, it is the number of state that you win that is the most important according to Nigerian law which they don’t know about, if you check this law you will discover that their hero Buhari will never never smell Aso rock:
If candidate Buhari have the highest number of total vote cast and candidate Jonathan win in 2/3 of the 36 states + FCT, candidate Jonathan wins the election according to Nigerian law. you don't talk about a lots of others things pdp will do behind the seen and apc will be helpless to do nothing.
Do you think that Buhari will win 2/3 of Nigerian state? Think again and again, the south is not supporting him and because of their goat brain they don’t see anything wrong, apc and Buhari hope is only in the north which will not give him up to 2/3 of Nigeria State

GEJ just needs 25 states to return for a second term. They will be very easy to get.
SS - 6 States confirmed (All)
SE - 5 States confirmed (All)
SW - 4 States at least (Ondo, Ekiti, Lagos & Oyo)
MB - 5 States sure (Plataeu, Kwara, Niger, Kogi & Benue)
NE - 3 States (Borno, Bauchi & Adamawa)
NW - 1 State (Kaduna)
Plus FCT - 1
I am sure he would pull the 25% votes in the remaining states.
Sweet victory for Mr President and PDP already. Is some one that said this truth above and it is a sure truth. My advice is that if you want to fight those on top, find your way to the top when you get there you change the rule , ask your people to joint pdp and find a way to the top and change the rule, as it stand now it will take more than Buhari, book haram and north and west propaganda to overturn pdp,
Ask God what it took him to remove Satan from Heaven, it took him a holy Angels not evil angel, Buhari /apc cannot do anything to pdp may be when apc are honest with Nigeria and are different from pdp they may dream of something like that