₦airaland Forum

A Cameroonian investigative journalist, Bisong
Etahoben, is reporting via twitter the arrest of
Mahamat Bichara Gnoti, a close associate of
Chadian President IIdriss Déby Itno.
Mr. Gnoti was reportedly arrested on the
Chadian-Sudan border with 19 SAM2 missiles he
purchased from the Sudanese army meant for
Boko Haram terrorist in northeastern Nigeria.
Mr. Gnoti who claimed that President Idriss Déby
gave him the funds to purchase the weapons, had
waved a presidential pass issued to him by Mr.
Deby’s office in order to get past border guards
but was stopped and searched by the guards who
found the deadly weapons on him.
There has not been an official confirmation or
denial either by the Chadian or the Nigerian
authorities. A text message sent to the office of
Colonel Sambo Dasuki (rtd), the National Security
Adviser in Nigeria regarding Gnoti’s arrest did not
receive a response, an aide said Mr. Dasuki is
traveling in Mexico.
However, the arrest of Mr. Gnoti, if confirmed, will
provide solid evidence that the Chadian President
is largely behind Boko Haram lightning insurgency
in Nigeria’s northwest.
Mr. Derby recently swindled the Nigerian
government of millions of dollars in a failed
attempt to negotiate the release of some 200 high
school girls abducted by Boko Haram from Chibok
town in April.
On September 8th President Goodluck Jonathan
made a dramatic visit to N’djamena to meet with
Idris Derby, Mr. Jonathan was accompanied on
the trip by former Governor of Borno State, Ali
Modu Sherrif.
The visit was condemned by opposition figures
and civil society groups in Nigeria as they see it as
an open embrace of individuals funding Boko
Haram militants.
An Australian negotiator, Stephen Davis had
accused Mr. Sheriff and former Chief of Army
Staff, Azubuike Ihejirika of actively funding Boko
Haram.

adavize:
This sounds plausible
Idris Deby has been fingered before now on been one of those supplying boko haram.
My question is what benefit is the crises in North east to Chad.
Anybody can help with a good reason?.

phemmyjohnson:
On September 8th President Goodluck Jonathan
made a dramatic visit to N’djamena to meet with
Idris Derby, Mr. Jonathan was accompanied on
the trip by former Governor of Borno State, Ali
Modu Sherrif

http://saharareporters.com/2014/11/22/political-associate-chadian-president-idriss-dby-arrested-missiles-meant-boko-haram

adavize:
This sounds plausible

Idris Deby has been fingered before now on been one of those supplying boko haram.
My question is what benefit is the crises in North east to Chad.
Anybody can help with a good reason?.

With recent developments, it has become clear that the discovery of significant oil and gas reserves in Nigeria’s northeastern Lake Chad Basin, the zone of the Boko Haram insurgency, is a major factor contributing to instability in the region. The recent discovery has attracted the interest of neighboring countries, such as Chad, Cameroon and Niger, and international powers, including the United States, Britain and France.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, discovered new oil and gas reserves in the Borno Lake Chad Basin in 2012 after its francophone neighbors, Chad and Niger, announced significant discoveries on their sides of the Chad Basin. Nigerian Vice President Namadi Sambo announced in 2013 that the country was preparing to commence oil and gas exploration in the fourth quarter of 2013 or the first quarter of 2014.

It is estimated that the Lake Chad Basin, including the west of Chad, southernmost parts of Niger, northwest Cameroon and northeastern Nigeria, could hold as much as 2.32 billion barrels of oil and about 14.65 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

Further escalation of the Boko Haram threat into a full-blown military conflict, leading to a declaration of a state of emergency in the three northeastern states of Yobe, Adamawa and Borno in 2013 following the discovery of oil in the region, might seem at first glance a coincidence given the roots of the crisis in the civil conflict with Nigerian security forces in 2009.

The Nigerian government had completed plans to begin commercial oil and gas exploration in Yobe, Borno and Adamawa in 2014. However, with significant sections of the region under the control of insurgent forces who have declared an independent caliphate, the plans have been thwarted.

As the Nigerian political opposition writer Peregrino Brimah notes, "There is no question that the find of oil reserves in 2012 potentially puts the entire conflict in the north in a different light."

Who stands to gain from prolonging the Boko Haram conflict?

The risk management group Edinburgh International identifies the interest of Nigeria's northeastern neighbor, the Republic of Chad, in prolonging the conflict. Chad is already benefiting from the inability of Nigeria to commence commercial exploration of oil in the region due to the ongoing insurgency.

From its side of the Lake Chad Basin, Chad has started drawing crude oil from shared underground reserves. Under the so-called "Rule of Capture," Nigeria's neighbors can legally draw oil from reserves located in the Nigerian territory provided they do the drilling exclusively in their territory. Billions of dollars in investments are going to Chad's oil sector. Chad is drilling oil from the Chad Basin for exportation as part of the Chad-Cameroon Pipeline project.

The injection of oil geopolitics into an already volatile mix of ecological factors pushing socioeconomic devastation of the region is further complicated by the involvement of powerful local politicians on the Nigerian and Chadian sides whose personal investments in Chadian oil means that their interest is best served by Chad's continued exclusive and unfettered access to the oil reserves while Nigeria remains bogged down with the Boko Haram insurgency.

The unfolding of the regional scenario with the commencement of oil exploration on the Chadian side has made explicit previously implicit assumptions about the Chadian government's links with the Boko Haram insurgents in concert with local politicians who have vested interests in the commercial exploration of the Lake Chad Basin oil and gas reserves.

Evidence of close links between Chad, local Nigerian politicians, Chadian politicians and the Boko Haram insurgents has become clear following recent ceasefire negotiations between the Nigerian government and Boko Haram brokered by the Chadian leader Idriss Deby. Nigeria has in the past urged its neighbor to stop the insurgents from using Chadian territory as a safe haven for recruitment, supplies and launching attacks into Nigerian territory.

Chad’s destabilization role in the region, as part of its economic drive to transform into a major oil exporter, with the apparent backing of its former colonial master France, was highlighted by a recent Global Post report which indicted France of supporting Deby's destabilization policy in the Central African Republic, CAR, with the aim of securing Chad’s unfettered access to its common oil reserves with CAR and disrupting the country’s increasing trade and economic links with China.

According to Kasper Agger, field researcher for the NGO Enough Project, in an interview with Global Post: “’Chad is drilling oil from that border region and it's actually a shared oilfield with CAR’.... While there is no drilling on the CAR side yet, Chad has high interest in keeping tight control over the area.”

Recently, Australian negotiator Stephen Davis, who played a role in the negotiations that led to the granting of amnesty to Nigeria’s Niger Delta militants, repeated previous allegations against former Nigerian governor of Borno state Ali Modu Sheriff that he is one of the major local sponsors of Boko Haram.

Sheriff is known to have had close links with ECOMOG, a political militia that later morphed into Boko Haram under Mohammed Yusuf.

Sheriff is also known to be a personal friend of Chad's Idriss Deby with significant investments in the Chadian oil industry. As if to confirm his influence with Deby and Boko Haram, he played a key role in brokering a meeting between Deby and Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan which led to the ongoing ceasefire negotiations and talks between Nigeria and Boko Haram to release the Chibok girls.

According to an account by Sahara Reporters attributed to Nigerian intelligence sources:

Mr. Sheriff was actively involved in the recruitment, training and deployment of Boko Haram members.

"... members of Boko Haram sect are sometimes kept in Abeche region in Chad and trained before being dispersed. This happens usually when Mr. Sheriff visits Abeche," a 2011 memo from field officers in N’djamena, the capital of Chad, read.

When Mr. Sheriff visits Abeche for these activities, he lodges in Chadian Presidential Guest House in Abeche, and is provided security by the Chadian government… Mr. Sheriff is a close friend of the Chadian president, Idris Deby.

In 2011, during the Chadian presidential elections, Mr. Sheriff supported the Chadian president with 35 vehicles, for security, and is believed to have bankrolled Mr. Deby’s re-election.”

The recent ceasefire talks between Nigeria and Boko Haram, brokered by Chadian President Idriss Deby, with the backing of influential local Chadian and Nigerian politicians with a vested interest in the Chadian oil industry, has focused attention on how the discovery of significant oil and gas reserves in Nigeria's northeastern Lake Chad Basin is contributing to instability in the region.

To fully understand the nature of the relationship between local Nigerian politicians and their counterparts on the Chadian side it is helpful to learn that the region is home to Kanuri clans who have common cultural and historical links despite being separated by international borders drawn by European colonialists.

Rampant corruption in the Nigerian state, coupled with the diversity of its 170 million people, means that local Borno politicians have greater ties with their ethnic kinsmen across the border than with Nigerian government officials hundreds of miles away in Abuja.

The economic devastation of the Lake Chad region due to the shrinking of Lake Chad, the economic mainstay of the region’s fishing communities, also means that the discovery of oil in the region is seen by local political power brokers as an opportunity to seek independence from the weak central government in Abuja, regardless of the interests of the poor masses of their own people.

The complicating impact of the regional geopolitics of oil is that although the Nigerian government has not revealed the terms of its recent ceasefire talks with Boko Haram, it could be fairly expected that Boko Haram will make huge settlement demands based not only on the precedent case of the Niger Delta militants who negotiated an amnesty deal with the Nigerian state but also on the fact of the vast oil resources at stake.

No doubt, issues of pay settlement will play a major role in the talks. But it is unlikely that the Nigerian government will be able to accept the demands, thus paving the way for the perpetuation of the conflict to the detriment of the Nigerian side and the advantage of Chad, as is the case in the Central African Republic.

If negotiations fail, the Chadians will, at least, be able to say that they made an effort to help secure a resolution of the conflict and that the fact that they are benefiting from a prolonged conflict in Nigeria’s Borno Chad Basin region is a situation they can't help.

A blog post by a Nigerian analyst who claims knowledge of the inner workings of of Boko Haram probably gives an accurate picture of the complicated nature of the challenges Nigerian negotiators face in securing a deal with Boko Haram.

According to the analyst, the ceasefire talks may have succeeded only in accentuating the differences between the four major militant groups constituting Boko Haram, namely:

Jamaa’atu Ahlis-Sunnati Lid-Da’wati Wal-Jihad ("Group of the People of the Traditions of the Prophet, for the Propagation and the Striving", led by Abubakar Shekau
Jamaa’atu Ahlis-Sunnati ‘Alal-Haqq Wal-Jihaadi Fii Sabilillah ("Group of the People of the Traditions of the Prophet on the Truth and the Striving in the Cause of Allah", led by of Sheikh Bukar Al-Barnawi
Ansorul-Muslimiina Fii Bilaadis-Sudaan ("Helpers of the Muslims in the Lands of the Sudaan", led by Abu Usamah Al-Ansori
Harakatul-Muhajiriina Wal-Mujahidiin (“Movement of the Emigrants and Those Who Strive), led by Khalid Al-Barnawi
Following a succession of victories by Nigerian forces in September, it appears that Shekau is anxious to secure a temporary ceasefire deal to regroup, rearm and secure his rear bases in Cameroon. But the other groups have reportedly rejected the proposal of a ceasefire deal with the Nigerian government.

Shekau's faction also reportedly rejected a proposal by the Nigerian government for a permanent resolution of the crisis, saying it was interested only in a temporary ceasefire deal. If the analyst’s report is accurate, it reveals the real intentions of Shekau’s faction in seeking a temporary ceasefire: The militants are merely seeking a brief respite to regroup and rearm following recent setbacks.

The analyst also denied reports that the Shekau faction has agreed to release the Chibok girls, noting that Shekau cannot release them simply because his faction is not holding them. Shekau's negotiators only promised to try to persuade Ansorul-Muslimiin to release the girls, according to the analyst.

Regardless of the accuracy of this analyst’s sources, it is widely understood that the major factor behind the desperation of Nigerian authorities for a temporary ceasefire is politicians seeking a respite to conduct elections, barely three months away. Politicians set for the campaign season want to be able to conduct their electioneering without distraction from the insurgents. President Goodluck Jonathan only recently announced his intention to seek re-election amid controversy.

The upcoming general election is the cause of the situation in which the Nigerian government is on its knees begging the insurgents for a temporary ceasefire. There is an understanding that it is in the best interest of politicians if fighting ceases temporarily to allow elections to take place, even if it means they return to the battlefield immediately after. The more pressing issue of who controls oil revenue flows to the center is settled through rigged elections.

As incredible as it sounds, Nigeria’s corrupt politicians are in effect begging the mad dog they unleashed to allow them a brief respite to conduct elections. But how much are they willing to bribe the mad dog to allow them to have peace for a season?

Collynzo9:
Why would the Sudanes border patrol arest him if their army actually sold the weapons to him?
Doesn't add up

nuclearboy:
Today's BH seems more about the oil in the Chad basin than the nonsense our govt has been feeding us. It does make sense that as long as the NE is in turmoil, exploration, drilling and a thriving oil industry in the area will remain a mirage.

I wish we'd stop the APC/PDP noise and truly find a solution to this "insurgency", if not for oil, at least for the innocents condemned to being caught between the armies of BH and those of Nigeria.

Fat chance..... ... the dogs will soon be here barking in support of their masters (oppressors) who's children are in foreign universities whist they are given laptops to fight on behalf of their oppressors

Lol - I see some already have arrived

tit:
Does it make sense to you that
1) Sudan will sell arms to Deby, then arrest Deby at the border or
2) Sudan will sell arms to Deby, then Deby's own security will arrest him in Chad?

Stop peddling lies!
You are no worset than the dpo that said SCOAN building collapse was controlled demolition!

jamace:
Please read what Dr Iyorchia Ayu said about sponsors of Boko Haram here: https://www.nairaland.com/1995223/boko-haram-neither-apc-nor#28256554

utytill:
But some governors are spending money in Chad and Niger republic calling them brodas.Now we need to know more.

kadas01:
These are the criminals behind this boko haram menace!

NIA and DIA still have a lot of work to do!

sunkoye:
both NIA and DMI are not functional. As it is...we cant even afford to fight a country Now oo

tit:
i am just telling you all, this news report does not make sense.
I have not read Mr Ayu's report (and i am not likely to) but i can bet you it will be full of conjecture.

This report is talking about an event which does not even pass the smell test.
If you are not one of the fools,
then do not be fooled.

adavize:
This sounds plausible

Idris Deby has been implicated before now on been one of those supplying boko haram.
My question is what benefit is the crises in North east to Chad.
Anybody can help with a good reason?.

2cato:
All these ar nothing but lies from the pit of hell.
APC are having been trying their best to spurn the wickedness about them on another person

focus7:
Nigeria should ask Jonathan to tell us the truth he knows and the level of his involvement with boko haram. Jonathan and his associate Sheriff Modu had a pally with the chadian president on boko haram what is it about, why has boko haram activity not abated since after their meeting and how has the chadian succeeded in supplying arms to boko haram if Jonathan is not involved?