₦airaland Forum

Porthos:
guy chill.... i school in uniben... dont spew trash here. I got auchi, esan & benin friends..... all hate buhari. The auchi are mostly muslims but just dislike buhari.. & oshiomole is 4rm auchi he askd dem to vote for gej...... ask around.

Jenams:
Hahahaha as soon as I saw IMO for BUHARI I knew one of them APC e-rats was behind this. South south n south east is 100% for jonathan, the main battle will be in ur domain. Learn to tell urselves d truth ok. And FYI, I'm frm edo, we dnt like buhari at all, so dnt u ever tink he will get votes frm edo because of oshiomole. Oshio was voted in as governor not because of his party but his personal qualities n xploits in NLC, so even if he was in labour party like mimiko bak then, he wud av won. Ur buhari is nt electable. Sori.

demsid:
its too sure that buhari is our next president. for those that are not comfortable with this. the heaven's gate is always open for you. simply goan die

demsid:
its too sure that buhari is our next president. for those that are not comfortable with this. the heaven's gate is always open for you. simply goan die

atinukedam:
u are a fool 4 dat statement it is u and all ur family wil die......u ve ur opinion nether do oders ave deres 2....pls stop playin politica wiv bitterness........eranko

donphilopus:
@Noblezone, pls don't ban yourself. You're neither an indigene nor reside of/in Edo. As we talk now, the PDP Senatorial Candidate in Edo South (Benin) is not campaigning, his name is not even heard. Everybody in Edo South is shouting Osagie, Osagie, Osagie (HoR Minority Whip). The National Assembly Election in States like Edo would also determine who wins the Presidential.

noblezone:
Who is Osagie and what do I have to do with him?
I am talking about the Presidential poll bro.

Jonathan will win Rivers, Imo and Edo.
It is as simple as that.

byrron:
Let us put it in figures for greater clarity. In 2011, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) published the following figures as the final number of voters by geopolitical zones: 

South-West: 14,269,163 voters out of official (2006) population of 27,722,432; 
South East: 7,577,212 out of 16,395,555; 
South-South: 9,474,427 out of 21,044,081; 
North West: 19,803,689 out of 35,915,467; 
North East: 10,949,689 out of 18,984,299 
North Central: 10,684,017 out of 18,968,717.

It is a historical fact that the APC was originally formed by mergers of regional parties of Arewa North and South West, such as the All Nigerian Political Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) for Arewa North and the Action Congress of Nigeria for South West.

 The main motivating reason for the birth of APC was to remove power from President Jonathan and give it to back to Arewa. 

The calculation and permutation was that if Arewa Muslim North-based parties (where the reactionary elements have been clamouring for the North to snatch back political power, which they regard as their birthright) combine their perceived voting strength with that of the South West, they will win the presidency with or without the support of the rest three zones.

 This is because their numbers, based on the 2011 INEC figures, will come to a voting strength of 44,848,911 compared to the share of other three regions (SE, SS and NC: 27,735,656) where the PDP (and by extension President Goodluck Jonathan) seems to derive virtually unwavering support.

This calculation failed woefully in 2011 because the eventual number of voters came to just about 37 million votes, and the voting pattern did not follow this prediction.

Besides, it is not easy to use religion and region as baits to persuade political leaders from Arewa who are big stakeholders in the PDP federal government to transfer their loyalty from their ruling party to a new one that is merely aspiring to take over.

This pattern of merger created a big problem for the APC. Because the North East and North West are Muslim-dominated and the South West is not only made up of about fifty per cent Muslims but also has a leadership that are mostly Muslims, it became difficult to balance the leadership of the party with Christian elements.

This gave PDP supporters room to slam unsavoury tags on the party, such as “supporter of APC”, “Muslim Brotherhood” and what have you.
However, the APC received major lifelines with the continued presence of Senator Chris Ngige and Governor Rochas Okorocha from the South East and Edo State’s Governor Adams Oshiomhole. This was buoyed by Rivers State’s Rotimi Amaechi, who decamped from PDP.It was a lifeline, but it has not cured the fundamental problem.

The difficulty that APC’s presidential candidate had in picking his running mate owed to the faulty foundation of the party. Only Muslims have clout among the South West leaders of the party.

There is no visible electoral asset from the South West who is a Christian in the APC leadership. Therefore, only a Muslim/Muslim ticket would be strong, but not strong enough to win a presidential election.

Southern partnerThe Christians will feel left out, and obviously, the bid is bound to fail – again. But if they gave the VP to Yoruba Christian who cannot get votes it will become Buhari/Pastor Tunde Bakare all over again. And if they take it to the South-South, which has been a major financier through Amaechi, the main southern partner of Arewa in this merger – The South West – will have nothing to show for their sacrifices.

It is really a bone in APC’s throat!Another, more insidious problem the APC presidential candidate is already facing is what I call the circling of hawks. Northern regional hawks, who tried to snatch power from President Jonathan inside the PDP but repeatedly failed, have now moved over to the APC.

These include Professor Ango Abdullahi, Alhaji Lawal Kaita, Alhaji Ibrahim Coommassie and Dr. Junaidu Mohammed, among the rest.

They have already formed a cabal around Buhari. These are the unabashed “born-to-rule” elements who believe that Nigeria is a colony of Arewa, and it is anathema to them that anyone who is not a privileged, anointed Hausa-Fulani Muslim should lead them.

These are the people who have made it clear that the war on the Boko Haram insurgency is a “war against the North”. Coomassie and Abdullahi have already announced that Buhari is a “candidate of the North”.What will happen if Buhari wins the 2015 election?
It is obvious these hawks will move in and resume their old Arewa agenda that caters for the privileged aristocrats while impoverishing the masses.

 These were the people who pioneered the seizure of mission schools to truncate the educational advantage of the South and Christians, who promote the quota system, convert the federal ministries, parastatals and agencies to honeypots for their kinsmen and women; people who regard the oil wells of the Niger Delta as their booty.

 These people are actually de-marketing the Buhari candidacy further. But the funny thing is that these hawks are mere opportunists. They have no electoral value for Buhari and the APC, but they are waiting and hoping for the buffet to be ready. Then, they will crowd out the non-Arewa merger partners. After all, they have their power back.

The APC must reform these foundational negatives and balance the leadership and structure of their party if they hope to last the distance in this race.

They must tone down sectionalism and tell the hawks to take the back seat or actually jump off the bus. These are issues that can turn voters against even candidates that are otherwise highly rated.

The problem with Nigerian politicians is that they carry these heavy loads into political contests and when they lose, they say they have been rigged out.-

 http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/12/hawks-circling-buhari

PUBLIC NOTICE:
To all gullible and bitter disciples of pdp and apc that might develop HBP after reading this truthful but bitter analysis, pls direct all ur curses and frustrations to the link I provided which is the source because I am not the author.

I just dey my own lane!

donphilopus:
You need to read my previous posts before concluding. 60 - 70% of electorates vote (for) a party for all the seats, ie, Nat. Polls and Presidential. PDP Candidates are not even heard in Edo State, how do you then expect them to deliver for PDP?!

donphilopus:
You're the one who talks and writes like an illiterate. Stop that your 'South hate Buhari'. Who are those Southerners who hate Buhari?! And stop saying that Oshiomole would ask us to vote Jonathan. You expect Oshiomole to tell Edolites to vote someone who said "Edo will fall"?! We should vote someone who wants our downfall?! You're a stark illiterate.

The winners of the National Assembly would determine who wins the Presidential polls in Edo State. As it stands now, Osagie (APC) would surely sweep the votes in Edo South, North belongs to APC, PDP would surely sweep Central. And commonsense does not tell you that 60-70% of the Electorates would surely vote (for) one party!

noblezone:
We have just 7 weeks

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Guy I stay in Benin City,Ugbowo,GEJ would clear all d votes here,stop dreaming and deceiving ur self!

noblezone:
We have just 7 weeks