₦airaland Forum

[b]without being biased.
The 2015 Imo governorship
contest has put the entire Imo
State on the edge. The contest is
too close to call as the race is
dominated by serious contenders
who have shown that they have
what it takes to win the polls and
govern the State.
Aside good credentials, speeches
and colourful campaigns, there
are certain indices and factors
that will determine who heads to
Government House, Owerri on
May 29, 2015 as elected governor
of the State. These include voting
pattern, zonal sentiments, the
disposition of the masses, political
party inclinations, and preference
for candidates for various reasons
by voters.
For purposes of clarity, there are
five major contenders for the Imo
governorship seat,
notwithstanding the fact that
there are 21 governorship
candidates flying the flag of some
obscure political parties that
cannot boast of a ward chairman!
The major five candidates include
the incumbent, Rochas Okorocha
(APC), Rt Hon Emeka Ihedioha
(PDP), Ken Ojiri (Accord Party),
Emmanuel Iheanacho (APGA) and
Osmond Ukanacho (UPP)
This piece will focus on the
capacity of these candidates to
win votes in the 27 local
Government Areas of Imo State
encapsulated in three geo political
zones namely Owerri, Okigwe and
Orlu. It will also focus on the
political dynamics in the zones
and possible voting directions that
will contribute who among the
candidates will brace the tape of
victory for Government House,
Owerri on the d- day.
Other factors such as the
disposition of the masses towards
each of the candidates were
considered. Crowd support during
political rallies or campaigns for
candidates were not taken into
consideration to evaluate their
chances to win votes since
investigations reveal that most of
the crowd are rented for a fee for
specific purposes.
The trend of voting patterns by
each zone was not factored in this
piece because in 2011 there was
“revolutionary” attitude put up by
the voters who wanted the PDP
government out of office. This
became the electoral advantage of
the All Progressive Grand Alliance,
APGA candidate in the 2011
elections.
The present disposition of the
voters in 2015 is totally different.
Respondents to our
questionnaires in the 27 LGAs
show that most voters are
influenced by political party
affiliation.
A good percentage of voters
especially those in the hinterlands
will vote for candidates based on
their disposition on issues such as
security, education, infrastructure,
health, etc.Another category of
voters will vote based on political
party affiliation and perception of
the candidates. Another
observation is that over 80% of
the youths of voting age in the
State will vote in the March and
April elections. It is observed that
they are well informed on the
candidates and will vote based on
political party affiliation and
perception of their choice
candidates.
In the overall analysis, there is an
overriding factor that will
influence the voters. In a complex
and well informed society like the
one in Imo State, sentiments such
as zoning is a strong factor that
will determine who wins the votes.
And this forms the crux of the first
part of this write-up.
The second part of this piece will
focus on how the candidates will
fare at the elections based on
issues such as the economy.
OWERRI ZONE
This is made up of nine local
Governments. They are Owerri
North, Owerri West, Owerri
municipal, Ahaizu Mbaise,
Ezinihitte Mbaise, Aboh Mbaise,
Ngor Okpala, Mbaitolu and
Ikeduru LGAs.
In this zone, the factor of an Imo
governor of Owerri zone
extraction come 2015 is very
strong. Okorocha and the APC will
only get pockets of votes in the
zone as the bulk of the votes will
be shared between the PDP
candidate, Ihedioha and his APGA
counterpart, Emmanuel
Iheanacho.
Marginal votes will also go the UPP
candidate, Osmond Ukanacho and
his counterpart in Accord Party,
Ken Ojiri who are also from this
zone.
Ihedioha of the PDP is expected to
sweep all the votes in the three
local Governments of Aboh,
Ahiazu, Ezinihitte Mbaise and Ngor
Okpala LGA. The APGA Candidate,
Iheancho and Ihedioha of the PDP
will take large chunk of the votes
in Owerri North while Ken Ojiri of
the Accord party will also make a
headway in the area since he is
the from the local government.
Owerri municipal is up for grabs.
The cosmopolitan status of the
municipality makes it a battle
ground. With the strong influence
of non indigenes in the area, the
votes will be shared between
Ihedioha, Iheancho and
Okorocha, with the indigenes
expected to vote for the APGA
candidate.
Owerri West, Mbaitoli and Ikeduru
LGAs are also hotbeds for the
leading contending candidates. In
Owerri West, the APC candidate,
Okorocha will get some votes, but
Ihedioha and Ihenacho will also
be in a rat race to curry over 75%
the votes in the area.
Ikeduru LGA is a PDP stronghold
so Ihedioha is likely to ride to
victory in the area. The UPP
candidate, Osmond Ukanacho will
pick up some votes as well based
on the son of the soil factor.
Mbaitoli will be up for grabs
because it is the home of
Okorocha’s deputy, Prince Eze
Madumere. However, the deputy
Governor is not a strong political
factor in the LGA, so it is expected
that the PDP and APC candidates
will take majority of the votes.

ELECTORAL CHANCES IN OWERRI
ZONE
Ihedioha (PDP)_ 42%
Ihenacho (APGA) – 40%
Okorocha (APC) 10%
Ojiri (Accord) 5%
Ukanacho (UPP) 3%
OKIGWE ZONE
This zone is made up of six local
Governments namely Okigwe,
Ihitte Uboma, Onuimo, Ehime
Mbano, Isiala Mbano and Obowo.
Political pundits argue that it is the
zone that will decide who wins the
Imo governorship contest because
of two key factors despite the fact
it has the least number of Local
Governments.
One, the zone has no
governorship candidate in any of
the major political parties. Two,
the zone nurse a grouse against
Owerri Zone. – that Owerri zone-
robbed it of two tenures of eight
years by backing Rochas
Okorocha of then APGA from Orlu
zone in the 2011 elections.
This sentiment is strong and
strongly nursed by political
stakeholders who invariably
influence the voters. No doubt,
the quest for the votes will be
keenly contested and this makes
the zone the deciding factor in the
governorship race. The Mbano
clan, made up of Ehime and Isiala
are strong PDP strongholds. The
two Local Governments parade
galaxy of PDP heavy weights such
as former Governor Ikedi Ohakim
and Senator Ifeanyi Araraume.
Squabbles in the PDP lately over
the conduct of the PDP primaries
which produced Ihedioha from
Owerri zone as the candidate of
the party will lead to shortfall of
votes for the party, because both
Araraume and Ohakim have
queried the outcome of the
primaries.
But if the matter is resolved
before voting day, the two local
governments is a sure bet for the
PDP. This is where the PDP
candidate, Ihedioha will derive
huge chunk of the votes in Okigwe
zone.
Ihitte Uboma is a strong APC base
courtesy of the intimidating
political stance of key APC leaders
such as the Speaker, Rt Hon
Benjamin Uwajumogu who is in
the race for the senate. This is
Okorocha’s huge support base
and this is likely to translate to
large votes for the APC candidate.
This does not rule out the fact that
the PDP will give Okorocha a run
for the votes in the area. The
APGA candidate, Ihenacho is
strong here and cannot be ruled
out in the scramble for votes in
this area.
Obowo is a strong PDP enclave.
Since they share the same
geographical border with Mbaise
which is Emeka Ihedioha’s
stronghold, it is likely that the area
will vote for the PDP. Okigwe LGA
is too close to call as it remains a
shopping ground for the PDP, APC
and APGA governorship
candidates. Onuimo is also
unpredictable. Despite the strong
presence of the APC, it could be
described as a “home ground” for
the PDP and APGA.

ELECTORAL CHANCES
Okorocha- 40%
Ihedioha-40%
Ihenacho- 18%
The 2% will be split among
candidates in Accord, UPP and
other small political parties
Orlu Zone
This is the home zone of the State
Governor, Rochas Okorocha. It is
an area that has a mixture of rare
political dynamics and under-
currents. Its voting patterns have
been complex judging from the
results of the last two elections in
the area.
It has the largest number of local
Governments in Imo State. With
12 LGAs, Orlu has the numerical
strength to determine who the
next governor of Imo State will be
in 2015. The APC is considerably
so strong in the zone, so also is
the same with the PDP. Nwangele,
Nkwerre, Njaba LGAs are
considered PDP strongholds, but
the son of the soil factor which
Rochas and the APC enjoy
remains a source of concern for
the PDP and other political parties
Ideato North and Ideato South
LGAs do have PDP heavyweights
but how that translates to
electoral victory for the party
remains a guessing game
considering the fact that Rochas
comes from this area and has
strong political support. APGA is
also visible in the two LGAs as
well. Oru East, Oru West are also
up for grabs. There is strong
presence of APGA, PDP and lately
Accord Party in the area as well.
Ohajii/Egbema is a core PDP area,
but it is assumed that the voting
pattern may split this time. The
grassroots may be for the APC, but
being an area strongly controlled
by the PDP in the past, it is a
shopping ground for Okorocha’s
APC and Ihedioha’s PDP.
Oguta has strong PDP presence,
but APC and Rochas are making
strong incursions. One cannot
rule out APGA and Accord party
clinching some votes.

ELECTORAL CHANCES
Okorocha (APC)- 60%
Ihedioha (PDP)- 20%
Ihenacho- 15%
Ojiri- (Accord) – 3%
Ukanacho- 1%
Other Small Political parties will
get at least 1% of the Votes.
[/b]

Nice analysis my brother. ..but I beg to differ a little. ...owerri zone will vote pdp. ..unlike what you said about ihedioha getting 42% of the votes cast...I see him getting over 60%..I say this because capt. Iheanacho has no political structures and is obviously working alone ...you and I know how elections in this country work..so I don't see him getting quite a number of votes. .then to orlu zone...its a straight slug between ihedioha and rochas. ..ohaji egbema and oguta will not cast a single vote for rochas because of what he has subject them to. ..stealing and diverting their money and all that...you forgot to mention the pdp bigwigs and their Lgas. ..The likes of The former governor Achike Udenwa. ..nzeribe. ..uzodimma etc. ..In all I see pdp getting about 38% vote cast in orlu owing to rochas being their son factor...but you know that those stalwarts ll not seat down and watch rochas apc sweep their Lgas just like that. ..u hit the bull's eye on owerri municipal. ..nice analysis

Who knows one green cap wearing unknown quantity named ihedioha in Orlu? With all the work done by Rochas in Owerri and the okigwe peoples anger against Ihedioha for stealing their sons victory at the pdp convention, how come you expect a tight race there? Even in Owerri municipal, is an untested mbaise man more politically relevant than an Orlu man with a proven track record? You guys are just planning to rig and are throwing up cooked statistics to prepare the ground. Just remember otokoto . . A flagrantly rigged election by the pdp mafiaso in Imo state may usher in a mob action that will settle things once and for all. PDP in Imo is club house for 419ers.

owobokiri:
Who knows one green cap wearing unknown quantity named ihedioha in Orlu? With all the work done by Rochas in Owerri and the okigwe peoples anger against Ihedioha for stealing their sons victory at the pdp convention, how come you expect a tight race there? Even in Owerri municipal, is an untested mbaise man more politically relevant than an Orlu man with a proven track record? You guys are just planning to rig and are throwing up cooked statistics to prepare the ground. Just remember otokoto . . A flagrantly rigged election by the pdp mafiaso in Imo state may usher in a mob action that will settle things once and for all. PDP in Imo is club house for 419ers.

u sound clueless. ...like you know nothing about politics. ...villagers look up to their community heads to tell them which place to thumb print. ..In as much as I'd like this thread to be non partisan. ..rochas has not done anything in the villages aside the ubec school blocks that he claimed but he has been exposed by the minister of state for education

The youths that helped rochas and intimidated inec into announcing him winner in 2011 have been abandoned by him....I'm sure you know it was ohakim dt won that election b4 it was declared inconclusive and an unconstitutional supplementary election conducted

BADNEAT:
u sound clueless. ...like you know nothing about politics. ...villagers look up to their community heads to tell them which place to thumb print. ..In as much as I'd like this thread to be non partisan. ..rochas has not done anything in the villages aside the ubec school blocks that he claimed but he has been exposed by the minister of state for education

You actually show how empty you are when you say that Rochas hasn't done anything in the villages. Where did you wriggle out from to tell me what happens in my villages? And who is partisan? Do I sound APC to you? So because my hardworking governor is in an oppossing party , I should throw away the baby with the bath water? What I know is that NL is full of hired PDP anti Rochas propagandistz. . Yet, slice it the way you like, Rochas is the best thing that has happened to imo state since dee mbakwe. Village roads are being done in EVERY local government. New superb hosspitals in EVERY local government. A brand new university. Free education and low level corruption in government.. what else do you want? What else will that your vote buying ikedioha do better?

BADNEAT:
The youths that helped rochas and intimidated inec into announcing him winner in 2011 have been abandoned by him....I'm sure you know it was ohakim dt won that election b4 it was declared inconclusive and an unconstitutional supplementary election conducted

So much for your sophisticated political reading! Ohakim won? LoL. .

Nice 1 op... I pray Capt. Emmanuel Ihenancho wins IJN Amen.

Rochas time is up it is a pity that we are going to vote him out

Faulty analysis... Okigwe zone is for Rochas except the court wil hand Ararume the PDP ticket. Ngor Okpala LGA will rather vote for Iheanacho than vote for Ihedioha. The whole LGAs in Orlu is for Rochas aside Egbema and Oguta which wil be keenly contested and "fought for". Ihedioha is only sure of securing substantial votes in ONLY the three LGAs of Mbaise. The presence of Ojiri, Iheanacho, and Ukanacho wil not help the course of Ihedioha in Owerri zone. And of course, Rochas wil get considerable votes there too. In the Final analysis, the grassroot appeal and support of Owelle wil comfortably return him to govt house EXCEPT God says otherwise. Udo diri unu

BADNEAT:
The youths that helped rochas and intimidated inec into announcing him winner in 2011 have been abandoned by him....I'm sure you know it was ohakim dt won that election b4 it was declared inconclusive and an unconstitutional supplementary election conducted

you're very funny!

I shouldn't be arguing with a particular set of people here. ..being myopic is a curse...heartland fm has turned to Rochas fm. ..Every single minute of the day theyre singing Rochas. ..my brother Rochas is desperate and can read the writings on the wall. ..by the way ka opuo

Plshavmercyamen:
Faulty analysis... Okigwe zone is for Rochas except the court wil hand Ararume the PDP ticket. Ngor Okpala LGA will rather vote for Iheanacho than vote for Ihedioha. The whole LGAs in Orlu is for Rochas aside Egbema and Oguta which wil be keenly contested and "fought for". Ihedioha is only sure of securing substantial votes in ONLY the three LGAs of Mbaise. The presence of Ojiri, Iheanacho, and Ukanacho wil not help the course of Ihedioha in Owerri zone. And of course, Rochas wil get considerable votes there too. In the Final analysis, the grassroot appeal and support of Owelle wil comfortably return him to govt house EXCEPT God says otherwise. Udo diri unu

More like it. .

BADNEAT:
I shouldn't be arguing with a particular set of people here. ..being myopic is a curse...heartland fm has turned to Rochas fm. ..Every single minute of the day theyre singing Rochas. ..my brother Rochas is desperate and can read the writings on the wall. ..by the way ka opuo

Taaaah gbafuo . .

Rochas we know in owerri West ihiagwa . take it to the bank

owobokiri:
Taaaah gbafuo . .

anyi n'ele onye ga agbafu

owobokiri:
Who knows one green cap wearing unknown quantity named ihedioha in Orlu? With all the work done by Rochas in Owerri and the okigwe peoples anger against Ihedioha for stealing their sons victory at the pdp convention, how come you expect a tight race there? Even in Owerri municipal, is an untested mbaise man more politically relevant than an Orlu man with a proven track record? You guys are just planning to rig and are throwing up cooked statistics to prepare the ground. Just remember otokoto . . A flagrantly rigged election by the pdp mafiaso in Imo state may usher in a mob action that will settle things once and for all. PDP in Imo is club house for 419ers.

You don't need to sound pathetic to make your point. You mean Ihedioha, the number sixth ranking politician in Nigeria is an unknown quantity in Imo state?
What you should know is that the damage has been done on Okorocha. He will surely go back through the back door he came from.

Plshavmercyamen:
Faulty analysis... Okigwe zone is for Rochas except the court wil hand Ararume the PDP ticket. Ngor Okpala LGA will rather vote for Iheanacho than vote for Ihedioha. The whole LGAs in Orlu is for Rochas aside Egbema and Oguta which wil be keenly contested and "fought for". Ihedioha is only sure of securing substantial votes in ONLY the three LGAs of Mbaise. The presence of Ojiri, Iheanacho, and Ukanacho wil not help the course of Ihedioha in Owerri zone. And of course, Rochas wil get considerable votes there too. In the Final analysis, the grassroot appeal and support of Owelle wil comfortably return him to govt house EXCEPT God says otherwise. Udo diri unu

Hmmmmm.

owobokiri:
Rochas is the best thing that has happened to imo state since dee mbakwe. A brand new university.

Abeg o, where is the brand new University Rochas government built, or is building?

My brother ask them oo

op, u are not serious. ihedioha will floor criminal okorocha hands down

mandax:
Abeg o, where is the brand new University Rochas government built, or is building?

I'm shocked to hear it.

BADNEAT:
The youths that helped rochas and intimidated inec into announcing him winner in 2011 have been abandoned by him....I'm sure you know it was ohakim dt won that election b4 it was declared inconclusive and an unconstitutional supplementary election conducted

this is one of the most hilarious comment I have heard in a long time

asha80:
this is one of the most hilarious comment I have heard in a long time

then you must be a clown