₦airaland Forum

temitemi1:
Yes I did

myweb:
Guy we understand you are feeling like a winner already. Just like someone put it above, wait till middle of #MARCH4BUHARI you will experience a massive wave for GMB. You still dont get it, people want change and nobody can stop it.

Then you fail to understand that APC is full strategists compares with stone ages cargoes.
Listen! Agbo to feyin rin, agbara lo lo mu wa (you can still understand).

But till then, enjoy your temporal 'win'..

WisdomFlakes:
Hahaha. An honest GEJ supporter for once. Lol. Don't worry, this time around if Una allow this election date to stick we promise GEJ an unprecedented thrashing at the polls.

talktimi:


By Femi Aribisala
I HAVE news for APC stalwarts. You don’t win an election in Nigeria by being the champion of social media. You don’t win by renting crowds to fill up your rallies. You don’t win by putting up your billboards everywhere while tearing down those of your opponents. You don’t win by master-minding in the media a false sense of the inevitability of your victory. When you do all this successfully, you simply end up deceiving yourself.

You win elections by mounting an effective ground-game at the grassroots level; designed to bring out the people on Election Day to vote for you. Instead, APC strategy was to stampede the electorate into victory. The design was to proclaim victory even before the election, laying grounds for protests and acrimony in event of defeat.

Attempted coup d’état

The APC blueprint is see-through. Present a new refurbished, suit-wearing and church-visiting Buhari to the electorate chanting a mantra of “change.” Give him a Teflon-coated Redeemed pastor as vice-presidential running-mate. Shield him from public scrutiny and debates to hide his weaknesses and absent-mindedness. Gloss over his objectionable past and pedigree. Mount an aggressive image-laundering social media campaign.

So doing, before the PDP and the public would be up to your game, the election would be over. Nigerians would wake up on February 15th to discover to our cost that we had been hoodwinked into handing over power to Buhari and the Tinubu cabal.

The APC mechanism for perfecting this plan entailed bullying the PDP into defeat. In the North, PDP supporters were threatened and harassed. Some quickly packed their bag and baggage and left town. Even Goodluck Jonathan’s convoy was stoned by APC “democrats.” In Gombe, a suicide bomber paid a courtesy call on the president’s campaign rally.

But the killer-punch was to be the disenfranchisement of literally millions of PDP voters. With the complicity of Jega’s INEC, APC strongholds were supplied with PVCs: while PDP strongholds were denied them. Ghost-voters came out of the woodwork by their hundreds of thousands in unlikely places like the war-torn North-east to collect their PVCs. However, in peaceful higher-population places like Lagos and Kano, non-indigenes were denied their PVCs, suspected of being likely PDP supporters.

It is telling that, in all the ensuing brouhaha over 23 million people not yet receiving their PVCs seven days to D-Day, APC remained resolute that the election should go ahead nevertheless. This indicates that it knew the missing PVCs belonged disproportionately to PDP supporters.

The denouement

However, the entire strategy of the APC met its Waterloo with the postponement of the election. With the postponement, the Buhari election-train came to a screeching halt. Some have argued that the postponement was a military coup by Jonathan and the PDP. However, a more truthful assessment is that the postponement scuttled the APC plan to win the election by subterfuge.

APC blundered because it refused to entertain the possibility that the election could actually be postponed. As a result, it did not plan for that eventuality. In this gaffe, it was carried away by its own hyperbole. APC big-guns shouted themselves hoarse warning all and sundry that the election must not be postponed, or else. Worse still, they believed their own rhetoric.

APC is used to making threatening noises. It is all stuff and bluster. If it loses, the dogs and the baboons would be soaked in blood. If it loses it would form a parallel government. If the election is postponed, Nigerians would not stand for it. Therefore, it expended all its political and financial capital on a 14th February election. When it finally dawned on it that the election might be postponed, Buhari made an unusual visit to the Council of State to mount a pathetic eleventh-hour resistance.

But alas, the APC was completely outplayed. INEC succumbed to the inevitable and the election was postponed, and for six weeks no less. As a result, the APC stampede came to an end. The orchestrated Buhari momentum came to a screeching halt. Since then, APC pundits have been in shock; scratching their heads because, in all their impetuosity, they had no Plan B.

The APC was banking on the element of surprise. That is now gone with the postponement. It was hoping to win the election by disenfranchising PDP voters. That is no longer possible. It is now confronted with fighting an election it always knew it cannot win because it does not have the appropriate structure on the ground at the grassroots level.

PDP fight back

Sixteen years in power had made the PDP over-confident. It seemed to have been caught unawares by the scripted APC nomination of Buhari and the gimmickry of choosing a Redeemed pastor as his running-mate. As a result, an election that should have been a cake-walk for it suddenly turned into a tight race. Part of this was self-inflicted. PDP had a bad set of primaries; creating considerable dissension within its ranks. Moreover, the PDP was bested in the public relations department; allowing the APC to define the narrative of the election on social media.

Had the election gone on as scheduled on 14th February, it would have been close but Jonathan would still have won. But with six weeks delay, the election will not even be close. Even though it was ebbing discernibly, APC had momentum for the 14th February election. By 28th March, that momentum would have dissipated and disappeared. Even now, the momentum is no longer there. Buhari is in London on a dubious visit. APC has run out of breath.

Make no mistake about it; the six week postponement of the election has effectively crippled the APC. It is no wonder then that the party has been grumbling non-stop. In the meantime, PDP has been able to get a full measure of the APC. Putting all its eggs in the 14th February date, which it insisted cannot and must not be changed; the APC played all its cards. It put all its eggs in one basket. However, PDP held some in reserve, banking on the postponement of the election.

APC’s confusion

What happens now? APC is confused. It is stretched for funds. It has lost its mojo, scrambling in panic mode to raise additional 50 billion naira from donors. Speaking to APC stakeholders at the party secretariat in Lagos, Bola Tinubu said: “We have to re-strategise; all of you should go back to your various constituencies starting from tomorrow.” This is a belated acknowledgment that the party now likely to win the election is the one best able to mount an aggressive and effective nationwide grassroots campaign.

In that department, the APC is clearly second-best. The party best positioned to mount an effective ground-game and mobilize votes at the grassroots level is the PDP. It has been around for 16 years. PDP local government councilors account for nearly 70 per cent of all councilors in Nigeria, comprising 6,521 members, making it a truly grassroots-based political party. The APC, on the other hand, does not have the nationwide political structure to win the coming election. To date, it is a newspaper and television political party. It has yet to build a formidable grassroots support. It is a JJC party, a little over a year old.

With all the noise about Buhari, it should not be forgotten that the man chronically lacks skills at building political party structures. In the APC presidential primaries, Northern delegates did not even vote for him; preferring instead Kwankwaso and Atiku. He was elected primarily on the strength of ACN votes. PDP strength on the ground everywhere in Nigeria explains why Jonathan was able to win 37% of the vote even in Buhari’s home-state of Katsina in the 2011 election.

While APC was busy stoking up the press to create its air of inevitable victory, PDP was busy mobilizing its local government councilors. Its Presidential Campaign Organisation brought all its elected and appointed councilors from all over Nigeria to Abuja to mobilize them to secure victory for the party at the grassroots level. In what was captioned “Operation Deliver Your Ward,” Professor Jerry Gana re-fashioned them as political foot-soldiers and grassroots mobilisers for the PDP, split into six groups according to their geopolitical zones.

Resurgent PDP

Since the postponement, Jonathan is no longer the issue. It is once again Buhari; the coup-plotting former dictator and alleged ethnic and religious jingoist. Thanks to the postponement, Nigerians can no longer be panicked into voting for Buhari. We now have enough time to appreciate that he is old, and completely bereft of ideas as to what to do when in power. It is not enough to shout “change, change.” The question is: change to what? To this question, Buhari provides a deafening silence.

In the meantime, the true message of Jonathan’s considerable achievements in office is now resonating. With the commissioning of new power-plants, we are now generating 5,500 megawatts of electricity: a new Nigerian record. We now know from PricewaterhouseCoopers that the allegation that $20 billion is missing from NNPC accounts is one big fat APC lie. The army is now fully-equipped for battle. For the first time in a long time, the Nigerian air force has come into the fray. The Boko Haram is being bombed to smithereens up North. There is even talk of capturing Abubakar Shekau alive.

Within the next six weeks, all that is left is for the PDP to put its house in order and APC will be toast. Since Buhari has whipped up himself and his supporters into an unrealistic psychological frenzy in this election cycle, it is certain he will end up at the tribunal, when it finally dawns on him that, in spite of all the bluster, he has lost again. The fate awaiting Buhari brings to mind that of Mitt Romney who was so deceived into believing he would be elected America’s next president in 2012, he had only a victory speech on election night when he was roundly defeated.

When the history of the 2015 presidential election is finally written, it will be recalled that the postponement of the election for six weeks was the final nail in the coffin of the APC.


http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/02/the-end-of-apcs-fabricated-momentum/

myweb:
[s]Guy we understand you are feeling like a winner already. Just like someone put it above, wait till middle of #MARCH4BUHARI you will experience a massive massive for GMB.

You still dont understand that APC is full strategies compares with stone ages cargoes.
Listen! Agbo to feyin rin, agbara lo lo mu wa (you can still understand).

But till then, enjoy your temporal 'win'..[/s]

Extractor101:
[s]



Trash.

WisdomFlakes:
You wish. Even GEJ's own team wishes he commands the level of following and confidence a Buhari independent candidacy will deliver, not to talk of the Buhari of today with the APC machinery. No wonder you all are having sleepless nights and bribing everyone from pastors to market women for votes. Buhari doesn't need to kneel to pastors for votes, his supporters will vote for him for free and even donate to his campaign.

Jonathan on the other hand is busy begging and bribing every one for votes. We go collect him money and still send him back to Bayelsa. Confirm!

myweb:
Guy we understand you are feeling like a winner already. Just like someone put it above, wait till middle of #MARCH4BUHARI you will experience a massive massive for GMB.

You still dont understand that APC is full strategies compares with stone ages cargoes.
Listen! Agbo to feyin rin, agbara lo lo mu wa (you can still understand).

But till then, enjoy your temporal 'win'..

chigo93:
wit apc,its nt abt money,its abt d poor masses who will wait under the sun to thumb in buhari. Poor pple vote,rich no get tym.last tym buhari had 12million votes, northerners and westerners will vote massively,lets wait and see who has momentum.Instead of gej to organise massive townhall meetings across western nigeria,he ended up dashing obas tax payers money,hmmm indeed he doesn't know how to make use of his brain intelligently.we shall see who has momentum.cote'divoire will repeat itself

mrmetoo1:
Please APC shouldn't make too much noise before elections because they'll postpone again. Buhari just went to the UK and all PDP members went into straight panic mode. Every thread was about Buhari and you tell me his momentum is dead.

Buhari's little visit gathered more attention than GEJ's "re-commissioning". Fayose didn't spend as much time to congratulate his candidate for the so-called achievement as he did running from pillar to post trying to discredit Buhari. Party chairman even gave AyeDee a special shout out because that one had spent his whole weekend working on silly "spot the differences". He didn't get a shout out because he talked about our president's achievement. You now come and say momentum is dead.. ok continu!!

Anyway my advice still is let APC just continue low-key so that they don't shift elections again abeg. Your supporters ain't going nowhere. Even though I'm sure they're planning a blitz about two weeks before or so

Xbabangida:
This should be awarded the dumbest post of the year.

GeneralBosco:
Talktimi, when I read that part where Femi Aribasala claimed that the crowd in Kano and Borno states were rented crowd, I immediately knew he wasn't to be taken serious. Alas, I'm surprised y'all are dancing and merrying cos of this ...anything that give PDP supporters hope, they hold on to it

Read this while you "celebrate"

festusowo:
Femi Aribisala, you call that rented crowd.
Jesus, how on earth can you pay over 3 million crowds in kano, over 2million in Borno, over 2million in Sokoto.

Rented crowd is what you see in PDP kano rally, rented crowd in Bayelsa PDP rally, where thr crowd is more than the number of pple in bayelsa itself.

The writing is very clear on the wall, we want change. I can't continue staying at home wen as a graduate I should be at work no matter ow small t is.

temitemi1:
Yes I get plenty of time!

PassingShot:
The guy no try at all. In two weeks time, they will surely start another plan to shift the election when the Buhari fever starts to catch everyone once more.

Samunique:
So the skills u acquired in school can not fetch a living, it is an old man of 72yrs u are waiting for to get u a job for a living Choi money don lost ooo!!!!

I'm sorry, maybe u have to wait till eternity !!!!

talktimi:
me sef gan no read am

EUROBOMBER:
This is a knock-out.

Samunique:
Don't mind that dullard, he just as dull as any APC supporter and their C in C of federal republic of sambisa forest and Arewanistian. U know him now? The old dictator, a coup plotter, and serial loser.

Rawani:
The message of change has been sent, the propaganda against the General demolished, and strategies of the incumbent have been, and are continually being defused and rendered useless by early revelations before they are implemented. The Nigerian people are better informed, and are resolute about voting for change. The PDP continues to help the APC's campaign by an unhealthy obsession about the General's health and person in general, the latest being Fayose's accusations which intimated Nigerians of the General's wide acceptance in the international scene and his efforts towards developing a robust foreign policy. He who fails to respond to stimuli by restrategizing should be ready to respond to failure with no surprise.

[center]THE APC HAS NOT LOST ANY MOMENTUM, THE MOMENTUM IS NOW WITH THE NIGERIAN PEOPLE[/center]

Permit me to comment on the messenger, since the message is filled with fallacies, conjectures, wishful thinking and sheer naivety. Aribisala on his profile in the Newspaper outlet he writes for describes himself as “a scholar and international relations expert”, if the quality of what Aribisala’s spews is anything to go by, then we may

have to redefine the true meaning of scholarship. His writings are not just filled with hate; they are in my opinion tell-tale signs of a man who has been paid to do a hatchet job, and an individual desperate to remain in the spot light. I could be wrong though!

Secondly, Aribisala, (as well as his friend, Femi Fani-Kayode) claims to be a “Pastor”, again we may need to reflect on the quality of pastors in our present Nigeria. Or is it part of their pastoral responsibilities to lie without recourse to objectivity? What happened to the biblical “Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall set you free doctrine”? Or did Aribisala choose to follow the ‘devil’ in this regard? I guess only Aribisala can answer all these. May I add that I have been observing with keen interest Aribisala’s previous writings, and I have never seen him write on the mis-governance and corruption-like activities which this PDP led government has undertaken under this dispensation. Not even the missing Trillions alleged by Soludo, “Corruption is not stealing hypothesis”, or the very recent $15m combined (failed) arms deal saga has drawn the interest of Mr Aribisala. How more parochial and sentimental can one’s writings be?

This particular hypocrisy of a write up only shows Mr Aribisala’s resentment for a man who is simply incorruptible. Under this administration, corruption and has been made a legitimate instrument of statecraft, and reduced to mere public stealing, we have watched countless number of probes without any of them getting to a logical conclusion. Under this administration, we have watched many corrupt politicians repatriated home only to be given state pardon. There has never been a time in our history as a people that we have had this division and mistrust as we have had administration; Yet Mr Aribisala has never found it ‘scholarly’ enough to write on any of these issues! If this is the ‘present or future’ of journalism in Nigeria, then some us must tarry a little why outside the shores of this country, otherwise, writers like Mr Aribisala will present Nigeria to us as the United States of America through their distortion of facts and sponsored (but woeful) attempts to re-write history.

EUROBOMBER:
This is a knock-out.

OLADD:
Very exciting piece. Virtually everything encapsulated by Femi Aribisala is evidently clear to Nigerians except the ever unrealistic APC supporters. But in addition to Femi's assertions, only poor students of Nigeria's political evolution would think APC/ Buhari stands a chance of ruling Nigeria (no matter the outcome of the forthcoming elections). For the benefit of hindsight, let's cast our minds back to the fates of late Obafemi Awolowo and MKO Abiola. The former was alleged to have lost his chance to rule Nigeria when he boasted during his campaigns that corrupt politicians would be probed if he won the election. Abiola in the same vein was said to have lost face with the West (the US in particular) when he consistently canvassed for REPARATION, a stance seen as an affront by world powers. No wonder his incarceration and eventual elimination was conviniently executed through local and international conspiracy. In the light of this, instead of leaning from history, APC seemed to have taken its own recklessness too far by denigrating every Nigerian institution i.e the police, Army, DSS, Judiciary, etc through barefaced propaganda, falsehood, blackmail, intimidation, unguided utterances all geared towards uncivilised push for power grab. So with enmity created with all apparatus of governance, it beats one's imagination for APC to nurture the idea of having a smooth sail to power by swiming against the tide. Those who live in glass house must desist from throwing stones.

Samunique:
OMG, Nigeria is highly blessed with so many intelligent people!!!!

I duff my hart for u!!!!

It's only an intellectually unsound mind that will not see sense in ur post.

OLADD:
Very exciting piece. Virtually everything encapsulated by Femi Aribisala is evidently clear to Nigerians except the ever unrealistic APC supporters. But in addition to Femi's assertions, only poor students of Nigeria's political evolution would think APC/ Buhari stands a chance of ruling Nigeria (no matter the outcome of the forthcoming elections). For the benefit of hindsight, let's cast our minds back to the fates of late Obafemi Awolowo and MKO Abiola. The former was alleged to have lost his chance to rule Nigeria when he boasted during his campaigns that corrupt politicians would be probed if he won the election. Abiola in the same vein was said to have lost face with the West (the US in particular) when he consistently canvassed for REPARATION, a stance seen as an affront by world powers. No wonder his incarceration and eventual elimination was conviniently executed through local and international conspiracy. In the light of this, instead of leaning from history, APC seemed to have taken its own recklessness too far by denigrating every Nigerian institution i.e the police, Army, DSS, Judiciary, etc through barefaced propaganda, falsehood, blackmail, intimidation, ridicule, unguided utterances all geared towards uncivilised push for power grab. So with enmity created with all apparatus of governance, it beats one's imagination for APC to nurture the idea of having a smooth sail to power by swiming against the tide. Those who live in glass house must desist from throwing stones.

OLADD:
God bless u sir.