₦airaland Forum

These are my projections for the Saturday election, I assume that there will be 40% turn out and that Buhari will have 80% in the North west, 70% in the northeast, 55% in the north central, 55% in the southwest, 10% in the southeast and 10% in the south south while GEJ was projected to have 20% in the northwest, 30% in the northeast, 45% in the north central, 45% in the southwest, 90% in the southeast and 90% in the southsouth. In arriving at these figures, I used the following criterias as what will guide the voters
1. Religion
2. Ethnicity
3. Performance
4. Undecided voters
5. Issues in the country such as corruption, Boko haram, Mama Peace etc
6. Performance of state governors
In the north, ethnic and religious considerations will tilt victory towards Buhari being predominantly Hausa-Fulanis and Muslims, in places like Kaduna, Adamawa, Kogi and Kwara states that has sizeable Christian populations, GEJ will have good showing while he may win marginally in states like Taraba, Plateau and Benue that are predominantly Christians.
For GEJ, ethnic consideration will give him good win in the southsouth and south east, I projected 90% for in in both zones.
In the south west, APC governors are on ground in four states so political party affliations and power of incumbency of governors will help Gen Buhari in those 4 states, In Ondo and Ekiti that have PDP governors, party loyalties will work in favour of GEJ to some extent but the Change mantra is so resounding in the two states, they are also the two states where allegations of non-performance is leveled against the president most in the southwest. In Osun State, GEJ will win big in Ife area because of Omisore, resentment against the governor because of salary issues will favour the president to some extent but will not be sufficient to give him a win, but he may get 25% this time around unlike in 2011. Other issues that could favour GEJ in the southwest is his dollarization of the terrain in the past few weeks, but in lagos, the consistent criticism of about N9bn contract given to Gani Adams, the OPC leader may work against GEJ because many reasonable voters are beginning to see the president as desperate and promoting Adams whom many educated Nigerians in the area continue to see as a nuisance. Issues such as religion will also play out in the south west, 90% of the votes of Muslims in the southwest will go to GMB, the Redeemed Christian Church of God where Prof Yemi Oshibajo is a Pastor will also play a role in favour of GMB. Though Pastor E.A. adeboye banned political statements in the church's pulpit nationwide, many influential pastors in the church are seriously rooting for one of their own. In the southwest, hatred for the first lady Dame Patient Jonathan, aka Mama Peace is more serious than in other parts of southern Nigeria, this will also affect GEJ marginally.
See my analysis in the attached document, a close race is in the offing even though GMB is favoured to win the race, I think I am fare to some extent, cheers!

wwwkaycom:
These are my projections for the Saturday election, I assume that there will be 40% turn out and that Buhari will have 80% in the North west, 70% in the northeast, 55% in the north central, 55% in the southwest, 10% in the southeast and 10% in the south south while GEJ was projected to have 20% in the northwest, 30% in the northeast, 45% in the north central, 45% in the southwest, 90% in the southeast and 90% in the southsouth. In arriving at these figures, I used the following criterias as what will guide the voters
1. Religion
2. Ethnicity
3. Performance
4. Undecided voters
5. Issues in the country such as corruption, Boko haram, Mama Peace etc
6. Performance of state governors
In the north, ethnic and religious considerations will tilt victory towards Buhari being predominantly Hausa-Fulanis and Muslims, in places like Kaduna, Adamawa, Kogi and Kwara states that has sizeable Christian populations, GEJ will have good showing while he may win marginally in states like Taraba, Plateau and Benue that are predominantly Christians.
For GEJ, ethnic consideration will give him good win in the southsouth and south east, I projected 90% for in in both zones.
In the south west, APC governors are on ground in four states so political party affliations and power of incumbency of governors will help Gen Buhari in those 4 states, In Ondo and Ekiti that have PDP governors, party loyalties will work in favour of GEJ to some extent but the Change mantra is so resounding in the two states, they are also the two states where allegations of non-performance is leveled against the president most in the southwest. In Osun State, GEJ will win big in Ife area because of Omisore, resentment against the governor because of salary issues will favour the president to some extent but will not be sufficient to give him a win, but he may get 25% this time around unlike in 2011. Other issues that could favour GEJ in the southwest is his dollarization of the terrain in the past few weeks, but in lagos, the consistent criticism of about N9bn contract given to Gani Adams, the OPC leader may work against GEJ because many reasonable voters are beginning to see the president as desperate and promoting Adams whom many educated Nigerians in the area continue to see as a nuisance. Issues such as religion will also play out in the south west, 90% of the votes of Muslims in the southwest will go to GMB, the Redeemed Christian Church of God where Prof Yemi Oshibajo is a Pastor will also play a role in favour of GMB. Though Pastor E.A. adeboye banned political statements in the church's pulpit nationwide, many influential pastors in the church are seriously rooting for one of their own. In the southwest, hatred for the first lady Dame Patient Jonathan, aka Mama Peace is more serious than in other parts of southern Nigeria, this will also affect GEJ marginally.
See my analysis in the attached document, a close race is in the offing even though GMB is favoured to win the race, I think I am fare to some extent, cheers!

Keep dreaming!
Pepper sellers are also making analysis.
You guys can't make any analysis without adding sentiments.

steppin:
Keep dreaming!
Pepper sellers are also making analysis.
You guys can't make any analysis without adding sentiments.

Thank you sir, where are the sentiments here? Simply tell me you read my post with a sentimental mind, or you didn't even read it as I can see.