₦airaland Forum

TRUTHTOPOWER:
If we take your post as a genuine observation order than a prejudiced retort then we owe you a duty of enlightenment.

Google the word Fallacy argumentum. you will notice ad hominen fallacy and appeal to authority.

What you should fault are the facts upon which he based his conclusion.

What is the lending rate? what is the expenditure ratio for both capital and recurrent? what is the inflation rate? what is the unemployment rate?

If there was no substantial improvement (between mere 10% -40%) in these indeces within 6 yrs. then you are free to glorify any one for whatever reason - certainly not on substantial growth. the only way out is to raise a defense of natural or some artificial disaster for a disastrous performance. that will be valid if verifiable.

Imagine what Aba entrepreneurs would do with favourable economic policies. rather the poor guys are reduced to importers of goods from China instead of job cteators. as we speak no accessible stimulus fund for them and no social safety net on any sustainable basis. SURE-P was based on treacherous oil prices!

WHAT IS THE NATIONWIDE INCENTIVE for job creation OR Sustainable economic relief under the Wizard of Bretton Woods (madam iweala)?
What percentage of our national budget was consumed by politicians and civil servants (who are no more than 10% of total population) and what percentage tricklef down on the remaining 90% as expenditure on human capital development? Google this. if after this you validate national poverty with World bank CVs, then, of course, we cannot have any debate in any connection to which socio-economic intelligence can be attached. What is left is tribalim or nepotism and we respect your choice to view the world you live in through this spectacle.

PS if the conditions under GEJ persist under PMB after 12 months, then the govt will have erred. After 3 years, it is a write off. no sentiment.

4Play:
This interview was in May 2015, odd that a 4 months old article is being resurrected today. Much of the criticism is the same tiresome cliched shallow commentary you get accustomed to hearing amongst Nigerians.

When he made a rare attempt to venture into offering policy solutions, something he said caught my interest.

If excess liquidity is causing high interest rates, inflation and a weak exchange rates and excess liquidity is caused by the CBN capturing dollar earnings, a reduction in dollar earnings would, ceteris paribus, reduce interest rates and inflation in addition to strenghtening the Naira. Instead, with the reduction in dollar revenue caused by lower oil prices, we have seen even much higher interest and inflation rates in addition to a weaker currency.

In my view, inflation is largely a result of the supply side or infrastructural constraints which make the costs of running businesses high - lack of power, electricity and security. Boyo kept on harping on reducing interest rates but reducing rates would increase liquidity, which he blames for inflation and high interest rates. Interest rates reflect the inflationary pressures an economy faces. A finance minister, it's not their responsibility anyway but the CBN governor's, cannot reduce interest rates at a whim.

All the other claims pertaining high recurrent expenditure and debts are the sort of things people say when they are playing to the gallery. Recurrent expenditure is mainly made up of the salaries of government workers. If you are serious about tackling this, you would need to cut salaries and or reduce staff headcount. No amount of posturing will change that.

ping72:
The question you should be asking yourself is : Is the average Nigerian richer or poorer since the commencement of her tenure to its termination?

ExInferis:
I'm quoting you here

henry boyo is one of few smart people who recognized that fat, flat-nose, flat head old igboe madam for the failure she is.

but then, nothing good ever comes out of the east.

baralatie:
let me break it down for you since you coukd not take time to read that Simple History of Nigeria Financial Outlook!
The issue WORKS LIKE YOUR REGULAR BANK LOAN

1,Nigeria goes to collect a certain amount of money(PRINCIPAL ) in DOLLARS CURRENCY
2,Nigeria is To be Charged INTEREST ON THE PRINCIPAL It borrowed and It is IN DOLLARS
3,Nigeria was not paying out its debt but was SERVICING THE DEBT BY PAYING THE INTEREST IN THAT DEBT.
4,Unfortunately ALONG THE LINE,Nigeria was not able to MEET UP ITS OBLIGATIIONS OF SERVICING THE DEBT ABD WAS PENAKISED WITH A FEE.
5.As Nigeria economy was growing so was its expenditure and ITS Revenue BASE(oIL) was not INCREASING
6.Nigeria Foreign Debt and Servicing Was NOW 150% of N IGERIAS OIL REVEN UE

it means for Nigeria to solve that debt Burden it will either
a,remain under an increasing debt of 200% and above
b,service the debt and have nothing to pat salaries,wages or even build infrastructure
c,pay part of the service charge and be further penalized.
d,go to your creditors and beg for forgiveness I.e to cancel your debt and pay small change.

Now you have taken path of 6d(fine)
the questions are what next for the NIGERIAN ECONOMY.

Nigeria was and STILL IS AN IMPORT BASED ECONOMY
1,it means your Balance of Payment(in dollars ) or Balance of Trade is not in FAVOR OF THE NAIRA.
Nigerian Govt Has to Pay For the Dollar to Do Business (IT LITERARIKY MEANS NAIJA MUST BIRROW)
2,Since that is the case.Nigeria had to PRIOTIZE HER FOREIGN DOLLAR IMPORTS and it was observed
2a,Oil Subsidy took 25% of your Foreign earnings
3,Now for Nigeria to borrow and not to enter problem with the DOLLAR.It decided to borrow in Local Currency(though it is presented as dollar)
3a,that is why you are not feeling the HEAT OF THE DOLLAR.

4,it was also clear that Nigeria need to ACCESS THAT DOLLAR THROUGH FDI(in order to promote growth)

I hope you now understand the SUCCESS THAT OKONJI IWEAKA ACHIEVED.IT IS IMMENSE!


Please read that I attached on this thread.and you will understand it more!

Thank you!

ibedun:
May Allah in his infinite mercy bless you!

petermichaels:
Ok na,we can see d handsome or legsome presidnt dat comes 4rm d north and d beta things/pple dat are coming 4rm d north..

petermichaels:
May God 4giv or evn 5giv u cos u ar lost.

landinfo:
It is easy to critise from the outside of the ring....ask Oliseh
Oliseh b4 his appointment said so many thingz to Keshi, abused & debased his team but power now don change handz & the same Almighty Oliseh can no longer open his mouth or make noise cos he is now on the hot seat & already showing the signz of failure b4 the race.
For Boyo, PMB shld give him the bartton let us see how the noise maker would fair well

Whynotthetruth:
1)Did the investors that came or FDI that we had even from companies that ran sway more than 20yrs ago by default?

2)YOUWIN & other such programs that encouraged entrepreneurship was it not something?

3)Transparency brought to the economy, was it a hoax?

4)BOI soft loans was it not reasonable?

5)Inflation came down to single digit under her was it by default and even remained so during oil price recession notwithstanding Russia etc were crashing?

6)Agriculture got unprecedented attention under her and helped in achieving long awaited diversification... isn't it something?

7)Pharmaceutical manufacturing industries and co got government incentive for the first time since independence under her...isn't it commendable?

Hatred & bigotry blinds most of you...thanks and goodnight

demandtruth:
Economics history that you are yapping about shows the relativness of
parity indices compared to what happened under NOI. yet you failed to
understand the statements you listed up there.

The article is all about the performance of the economic indicators
under NOI. It was abysmally considering the effect of all the action she take
when she was there; the period of big earning from oil.

All economic data suggest she had not grown the economy.
Our economy has not proving any resistant to external shock.

Now, consider also the current GDP deflator index (real GDP), what were
the NOI economics threshold on the real growth factors.

Don't even try to throw the re-bassing nonsense into this equation!

baralatie:
that is why boyo's article was misleading
what you are raising about economic performance is away beyond what Boyo is stating!





let us go by your line of thought of economic performance and its relationship to the Nigeria factor.
1,Nigeria's earnings is basically oil and it is 90% of the Fg,state and local govt revenue before she came on board.
2,we now have to take a closer look at what exactly is HAPPENING TO YOUR FINANCIAL BUDGET AND EXPENDITURE
3,Now with the economy growing Nigeria HAS OIL TO BE 70% revenue for GOVT (whether you like it or not that 30% signifies that there is some form of GROWTH OF NIGERIA'S ECONOMY)
4,But there is still an issue NIgeria economy is dominated by 70% oil revenue with 25% of its earning spent on subsidy.it means Nigeria has just 45% of its earning left.I did not end there
4b do you Know the EFFECT OF WAGE INCREMENT on the available % of spendable revenue

and you had the highest number of INFASTRUCTURE GROWTH AND FACLITIES SPRINGING LEFT AND RIGHT across the nation!




Boyo was heavily and MONSTROUSLY MISTAKEN.







OKNOJO DID A SPECTACULAR JOB AS AN ECONOMIST AND FINANCIAL EXPERT

demandtruth:
Honestly, your line of argument has a sentimental coloration to it.
Be as it may, the relationship between growth, performance and all other economics indices is what Boyo is referring to. He was not measuring NOI as an individual, but her performance and application of the economic spheres.
I'll leave you to your opinion.
If by any grace we get a good economists to man the ministry of finance and you and i remain alive to witness a different direction, then i'll call you out on this your opinion.
Peace

4Play:
This interview was in May 2015, odd that a 4 months old article is being resurrected today. Much of the criticism is the same tiresome cliched shallow commentary you get accustomed to hearing amongst Nigerians.

When he made a rare attempt to venture into offering policy solutions, something he said caught my interest.

If excess liquidity is causing high interest rates, inflation and a weak exchange rates and excess liquidity is caused by the CBN capturing dollar earnings, a reduction in dollar earnings would, ceteris paribus, reduce interest rates and inflation in addition to strenghtening the Naira. Instead, with the reduction in dollar revenue caused by lower oil prices, we have seen even much higher interest and inflation rates in addition to a weaker currency.

In my view, inflation is largely a result of the supply side or infrastructural constraints which make the costs of running businesses high - lack of power, electricity and security. Boyo kept on harping on reducing interest rates but reducing rates would increase liquidity, which he blames for inflation and high interest rates. Interest rates reflect the inflationary pressures an economy faces. A finance minister, it's not their responsibility anyway but the CBN governor's, cannot reduce interest rates at a whim.

All the other claims pertaining high recurrent expenditure and debts are the sort of things people say when they are playing to the gallery. Recurrent expenditure is mainly made up of the salaries of government workers. If you are serious about tackling this, you would need to cut salaries and or reduce staff headcount. No amount of posturing will change that.

Obrigardo:
Jonathan is to be blamed for this JP Morgan issue. They looted Nigeria till there was nothing left now some Igbos are now turning it against Buhari.

Tell me why Jonathan will not be jailed

(i'm surprised to see flat - heads are now censored to be Igbos - This is condescending )

hinwazaka:
An economist who does not know the true debt service ratio in the country from 1960-2007 is no economist. Imagine an economist saying that we had paid our debts several times over before 2007. Henry Boyo is nothing but a fraud. As at 1997, our official external debt stock, stood at $27.012 billion. How in gods name, Mr boyo said we have serviced all our debts, with a sober mind is puzzling. He is in no way of NOI's standard. Why doesn't he go and get an appointment in world bank. If he could not see the brilliance behind, Madam NOI's economic strategy, then he should ask for a refund from his alma mata. What a joke.

omonnakoda:
The logic of the "several times over" claim is a comparison between the original principal and the total amount paid. Nigeria never stopped servicing its debt at any time so that is not an illogical thing to say though that is usually the case for long term loans that the total amount paid is a multiple of the principal.If consistent with agreed terms there is nothing strange there. Several times over does not mean "more than was contractually agreed" though he may have issues with the agreements

Bevista:

hinwazaka: An economist who does not know the true debt service ratio in the country from 1960-2007 is no economist. Imagine an economist saying that we had paid our debts several times over before 2007. Henry Boyo is nothing but a fraud. As at 1997, our official external debt stock, stood at $27.012 billion. How in gods name, Mr boyo said we have serviced all our debts, with a sober mind is puzzling. He is in no way of NOI's standard. Why doesn't he go and get an appointment in world bank. If he could not see the brilliance behind, Madam NOI's economic strategy, then he should ask for a refund from his alma mata. What a joke.

It is entirely possible that Mr Boyo was off the mark in claiming that Nigeria had paid off its debt "several times over". I doubt if he has any valid evidence to support such claim. I, personally, do not think the corrupt military governments paid off the debt.

Having said that, I think it is completely uncharitable to dismiss all the other points raised by Boyo. You claimed that you read the whole article but then allowed your bias and prejudice to determine what you comment on.

As someone with a fair amount of Economics & Finance background, I can tell you that Boyo raised very salient points. He may have gone overboard in criticizing NOI.

Maybe you should comment on some of the other points he raised such (1) rational for the balloon debt repayment (2) why did our debt go up again even with a higher oil price (3) Inflation, Interest rate, Unemployment, Exchange rate (4) Diversification of the economy (5) Subsidy payments (6) 70% budget recurrent expenditure (7) Depletion of foreign reserves and ECA, etc.

I'd be glad if you can deepen the debate by commenting on those issues. Baralatie is also encouraged to desist from trolling the thread with that long article.

InvertedHammer:
/
All in all, I will give a C- to NOI in the management of the economy. A coordinating Minister that is ignorant of account receivables of a country from crude oil sales is as good as nothing.

And if anyone has ever worked in a big corporate organization, the hierarchy and mode of operations is very complex and complicated. NO I might have been a Vice President in World Bank but how much input did she have in the decision-making process?

Nigerians are easily intimidated with high-sounding appendages. Some even made it seem like she did Nigerians a favor? Really? There is no way you can compare the renumerations of a Nigerian minister to a World Bank Vice-President. A Nigerian minister is worth 10x more than any World Bank.VP even though the latter have more influence. As a matter of fact, being the coordinating Minister was a very big promotion for Mrs Iweala.

mapet:
Bros,

Simple context. It means we have probably paid 10x the initial principal with the endless interest payments and devaluation requirements

OohLalah:
True and a great minister would renegotiate the terms and try and get out of the debt Scot free or with the minimal settlement payment ever, that should be much less than capital debt not double or triple the capital debt.

mapet:
Bros,

Simple context. It means we have probably paid 10x the initial principal with the endless interest payments and devaluation requirements

Hehe , any average Joe can negotitate a similar deal, actually a better one.

989900:
Most people didn't read that part in the other article. Anyway, NOI did well for herself, the world bank, and her brother who pocketed millions of dollars in that 'deal'.

TRUTHTOPOWER:
I do not see how these tokens amount to a sufficient answer for the question of documented apocalypse in the economic sector. A man' s roof is leaking and the walls are cracking and someone had the temerity to remind us that the foreman is the serving dean of civil engineering at Harvard? what has that got to do with his complaint. for the individuals who are accustomed to poverty of imagination or benefited in such charade they can counsel the man to shut up and be grateful for the roof over his head.

By the way what was the benefit of Investors such As kellogs, Dunnants, Fords and Dows to America suffering masses in recesssion (1930S)? Tell me what the whole of JP morgan & Co at wall street did to save America from sliding into economic crisis in 2008. even if all the money in world bank and the the financial centres of Tokyo, London and Singapore are moved to Nigeria and they failed to address lending rate, unemployment and inflation, they are failures.
All these pale to tokens you want to flaunt as achievement.
Then all PMB has to do is to double those tokens and become a hero for you. For those of us who voted him we will not even accept "trippling" or "quadraupling" of your performance standard as an entry point for PMB. we are working with him to reduce what you think is excellent to a mere foot note in economic milestones of Nigeria after 3 years. All PMB has to do is to lock down corruption and insecurity to such an extent that will permit honest enterprise to thrive. even you will be able to publish a good book in the fullness of time (whether for or against our policies) This time your publisher will tell you write with FUNDAMENTAL facts and figures and not sentiments that may sell in Onitsha market literature.

Good night!