₦airaland Forum

naijaguy77:
Confused APC.

So 2 trillion is 40% of 8 trillion? Clowns

You are looking so frustrated, kpele, GEJ and cluelessness are gone. Get over it. Didn't you read where it was stated between 6-8trillion naira. Is the 8trillion fixed?

Flets:
This government should be reminded that elections are over. Enough of these noises as reality have set in already.

Lets do some simple mathematics.
Nigeria's total crude production currently hovers at 2M barrel per day, but I will assume 2.5M barrel for sake of optimism
Crude oil sells at slightly above $40/ barrel but I will assume $45/ barrel
Most JV agreements with Oil corporations stands at an average of 60% for Nigerian govt.
Cost of production of oil for most companies stand at almost 50% but I will assume 30% (optimist case) and then 70% profit
Only about 52% of total earnings goes to the FG, the remaining goes to state allocations and host state derivation
Assuming an exchange rate 200 naira per dollar and 365 days a year

Federal Government can make approximately 1.8 trillion naira from crude sales for 2016 optimally. Details below
so 2.5Million x $45 x 60% x 70% x 52% x 200 x 365 = 1.8 Trillion Naira

Historically, crude has formed about 70% of our budgets.... following same logic, total budget can only be 2.6 trillion Naira (1.8Trillion/ 70%)

Even if we increase taxes, collapse all tax and duty exemptions and without any diversification efforts by the current government, we will be lucky to add another 1trillion the 2.6 trillion to make it a maximum of 3.6 trillion.

So realistically speaking, 8 trillion FG budget is impossible for 2016. Propagandically speaking, APC govt have said it and they believe their zombies will believe it.

You forgot that FIRS alone raked in N2.2trn, by the time Tunde Fowler and his team spread tbe tax net to capture the over 300,000 non tax paying businesses as well as double vat to 10%, also the cancellation of frivolous waivers worth billions will certainly swell our revenue. Already the nnpc reform and the TSA implementation is yielding good results. Indeed that budget is achievable, because more costs will come down eg NASS allowances.

kozmokaz:
8trillion kini ? we dey fight war? dats is way too high !! if it was jona now una go open una mouth like black and white TV ... APC!!! una days are numbered!!



just tell us how much amechi and tinubu go gt from dat 8 trillion naira daz all I wan know!!!



8 trillion
8000000000000... I hope say d zeros complete?

DRYYYYY! You make no sense, run back to the cave you're from.

TonyeBarcanista:
Bros, free GEJ na. The guy don lose election na Bubu de power now. Where una wan see the phantom N8tr?

Ok I don hear. E be like say you don forget say Buhari siddon on top the yams this time. All goats don enter one chance.

Jesusloveyou:
clap for ur craps, so u believe in what ur clueless corrupt ogogoro hero told u, did u put into ur calculation d 2.6t paid to subsidy thieves, u one madueke and co steal and d missing $20b unremitted to federal acc? With less corruption and blocking of every loopholes, 8tr is achievable

oga, the 20bn$ is over three years oo..if at all any money is even missing. so it is not even in 2015 ..it was between 2011 and 2013..Sanusi left in 2014 so it is not what you think..that it is one year loot .....
i still agree govt can get 8trn or more if all these leakages are blocked....and the economy picks up but realistically, let them tell us how they intend to get the 8trn .e.g so much from oil,tax etc

Keegan:
DRYYYYY! You make no sense, run back to the cave you're from.

I like u guys courage ... even in a sinking ship una still dey shout change!!! Lol

wake up from ur dreams u av been scammed !!!

DelGardo:
The vice president of Nigeria is traditionally in charge of the economy.

The economy under Jonathan was in tatters because Jona had no clue and Sambo was a ghost worker.

Osinbajo, on the other hand, seems to have a good grip on things. Long may it continue.

Change is here.

lol@ghost worker.

Demdem:
What obviously isn't in debate here is that the forthcoming budget will be higher in an era of low oil-producing price than our recent past years under the leadership of Jonah-daft when oil price was very high.
It's obvious that Nigerians made the right decision by booting out the curse from Aso Rock.
With time, full details of Govt plan will be revealed.

correct ur work...

jomoh:
Typical Jonathanians.

Same way someone once said Nigeria does not have N30tn in 5years.

First go and learn what is called ZERO BASED budgeting.

It is the most frugal system of budgeting where you assume you have no money in your pocket and you want to spend N8trn. Meaning you have to go street wise. Nothing like wastage, nothing like excess.

If in 3months after all the trillions spent on election, After the bailout, despite the sharp drop in crude oil price, TSA can still generate N1.4trn. You can then imagine what past government has been stealing.

BTW they are now in government now. So they now see the through picture of things clearer than they even did when they were in the opposition. So you cannot claim the don't know what they're saying.

sorry, that is not zero based budgeting. ..nothing to do with frugality..but more of reality..frugality has to do with those operating the system..you can still be wasteful under a zero based budget.
a zero based means you start afresh..most budget are based on previous years earning and performance....but a zero based does not take into account the previous year(s) income and expenditure....it is as if nothing has ever happened. it has its advantages and disadvantages

LordAdam:
This article should help.



Also, I think it is high time we expanded the responsibilities of the Auditor General. Probably create an Accountability Agency with constitutional rights, independent, and reports directly to the Senate.

Non-accountability is pivotal to the virulence of corruption. We should lay the right foundations. If we are increasing our budget to $8trn, at the end of the year, we should know what the money was used for, how it was used, and how to optimize spending in the future. If businesses do this, why not the government?

Zero based allocation and when you multiply zero by trillions what do you get??

Omooba77:
Zero based allocation and when you multiply zero by trillions what do you get??

Read -- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-based_budgeting

I agree with the poster above. ZBB has it's merits and demerits. I'm only pointing out the feasibility of an N8 trn going by the facts from the HoR review.

kalakuta11:
MTN shall contribute 1 trillion to the budget. DSTV donate 2Trillion next year after paying 20 years fraud areas. Sai Baba

Nice one

Flets:
This government should be reminded that elections are over. Enough of these noises as reality have set in already.

Lets do some simple mathematics.
Nigeria's total crude production currently hovers at 2M barrel per day, but I will assume 2.5M barrel for sake of optimism
Crude oil sells at slightly above $40/ barrel but I will assume $45/ barrel
Most JV agreements with Oil corporations stands at an average of 60% for Nigerian govt.
Cost of production of oil for most companies stand at almost 50% but I will assume 30% (optimist case) and then 70% profit
Only about 52% of total earnings goes to the FG, the remaining goes to state allocations and host state derivation
Assuming an exchange rate 200 naira per dollar and 365 days a year

Federal Government can make approximately 1.8 trillion naira from crude sales for 2016 optimally. Details below
so 2.5Million x $45 x 60% x 70% x 52% x 200 x 365 = 1.8 Trillion Naira

Historically, crude has formed about 70% of our budgets.... following same logic, total budget can only be 2.6 trillion Naira (1.8Trillion/ 70%)

Even if we increase taxes, collapse all tax and duty exemptions and without any diversification efforts by the current government, we will be lucky to add another 1trillion the 2.6 trillion to make it a maximum of 3.6 trillion.

So realistically speaking, 8 trillion FG budget is impossible for 2016. Propagandically speaking, APC govt have said it and they believe their zombies will believe it.

In addition, APC FG has claimed that 2016 budget will be developed through zero budget based budgeting. Now without ministers who are supposed to draw up the budget components within their ministries ..... how exactly did Osibanjo come up with 8 trillion when zero based budget was the agreed method?

they are indirectly passing a message, naira is going to be devalued. don't be surprised if naira climbs to#300.

We are almost in 2016. All these sycophancy is not really wise.
The greatest enemy of propaganda is time.
I hope these praise singing sycophants would be around to justify the inevitable shortfalling of such a ludicrous budget.

Including 5k for unemployin uths?

sammhi:
oga, the 20bn$ is over three years oo..if at all any money is even missing. so it is not even in 2015 ..it was between 2011 and 2013..Sanusi left in 2014 so it is not what you think..that it is one year loot .....
i still agree govt can get 8trn or more if all these leakages are blocked....and the economy picks up but realistically, let them tell us how they intend to get the 8trn .e.g so much from oil,tax etc

Since they have been shouting of missing money; nobody has come out with concrete evidence to show how much.

orontogorah:
http://punchng.com/2015/11/4275

an 8 trillion budget for 2016, means govt intends to do some massive recruitment into the Police and Armed Forces, including borrow a whooping 4 trillion from World Bank, IMF, and other multilateral agencies. This level of spending will weaken the naira to 300/ $1, inflation rate will reach 15%, prices of food will go up e.g a loaf of bread will be 300-350 naira.

Yanks101:
We are almost in 2016. All these sycophancy is not really wise.
The greatest enemy of propaganda is time.
I hope these praise singing sycophants would be around to justify the inevitable shortfalling of such a ludicrous budget.

They we still look for excuse that GEJ stole their money, so they cant fulfilled thei promises. House built with spittle will be blown away by dew.

IyaIode:

Flets: This government should be reminded that elections are over. Enough of these noises as reality have set in already.

Lets do some simple mathematics.
Nigeria's total crude production currently hovers at 2M barrel per day, but I will assume 2.5M barrel for sake of optimism
Crude oil sells at slightly above $40/ barrel but I will assume $45/ barrel
Most JV agreements with Oil corporations stands at an average of 60% for Nigerian govt.
Cost of production of oil for most companies stand at almost 50% but I will assume 30% (optimist case) and then 70% profit
Only about 52% of total earnings goes to the FG, the remaining goes to state allocations and host state derivation
Assuming an exchange rate 200 naira per dollar and 365 days a year

Federal Government can make approximately 1.8 trillion naira from crude sales for 2016 optimally. Details below
so 2.5Million x $45 x 60% x 70% x 52% x 200 x 365 = 1.8 Trillion Naira

Historically, crude has formed about 70% of our budgets.... following same logic, total budget can only be 2.6 trillion Naira (1.8Trillion/ 70%)

Even if we increase taxes, collapse all tax and duty exemptions and without any diversification efforts by the current government, we will be lucky to add another 1trillion the 2.6 trillion to make it a maximum of 3.6 trillion.

So realistically speaking, 8 trillion FG budget is impossible for 2016. Propagandically speaking, APC govt have said it and they believe their zombies will believe it.

Very pitiable analysis.

Stupid analysis will be better. Premise and arguments wrong and lopsided. Besides @Flets, stop brandishing wrong information. Production cost (Cost per Barrel)in the Oil and Gas industry is NEVER near 50%

kel4soft:
These re the informations you re now privy to know courtsey of Buhari's transparency election promise. Our non oil sectors have been a drain pipes for years.

This has been public knowledge for a long time. Your ignorance is no excuse.
Infact... Buhari is yet to understand this yet

mapet:
Stupid analysis will be better. Premise and arguments wrong and lopsided. Besides @Flets, stop brandishing wrong information. Production cost (Cost per Barrel)in the Oil and Gas industry is NEVER near 50%

Production cost today is over 50%. Production cost per barrel today stands at about an averaged $23/ barrel for optimal producers (higher for others). How much is $23/ barrel in relation to $40/ barrel (58%).

It was a different story when crude sold for $80 to $90/ barrel ..... though production cost was slightly less than $30/ barrel, it was still within 30% of selling price.

orontogorah:
but i tot dey said nigeria was broke na...

Let it go Man

These APC people know Nigerians are largely emotional people who don't reason well. If after six months of not achieving any from the bubget, they will resort to calling Jona and PDP. Nigeria Budgeted over 4 trillion and still borrow to achieve less than fifty percent. Nigerians earnings has not improve and yet somebody is planing 8 trillion. Every soon instead of working to bring their plane to fruition, it the story of how one minister under Jona stole 20trillion.

Not doubting that 100 million are poor rather the fact we got 70 million people rich. It is less than that I beleive

Empredboy:
base on world Bank index of $1 per day 1*#220=#220*30days=#6600. Which many youths and families can't boost of saving it a month. So yeah 100m people are poor in Nigeria that's the bitter truth from the government so that they can work harder to reduce it. Or do u want the government to lie to you that just 10m is poor or there is no poor people in Nigeria?

Omooba77:
Dont forget that part of the money generated are used for salaries and other statutory obligations

Salaries are typically accounted for in previous FG budget, maybe some statutory obligations are unaccounted for.

veraponpo:
Good analysis but with shallow inputs.

Budgets are not only financed by your revenue. You can finance budget with debts also. It only depends on what your plans, needs, strategies and situation are.

Also, you have, in a parochial way, boxed Nigeria's source of revenue to Taxes and Oil only. For the purpose of this write-up, other ones but not limited to them are:

1. Gases- NLNG;
2. Inflow from Royalties (Oil and Gas and other ones)
3. Non- Oil revenues
4. Custom Duties
4. Fines and Penalties
5. Licenses
6. Inflow from abroad (Nigerians working in other countries)
7. Other ones that I cant remember now.

In essence, we can finance it, if that is our plan and desire. That is the best way to revamp our dying economy. By putting much money there with capital expenditure taking a huge chunk and recurrent touching the poor. We would have made our infrastructure back to life and the populace shall be glad.

Bros,

when you see ppl like @Flets with limited exposure and ignorance, you can imagine far why some people's capacity are limited to beer-parlour ;Danalysis

Flets:
This government should be reminded that elections are over. Enough of these noises as reality have set in already.

Lets do some simple mathematics.
Nigeria's total crude production currently hovers at 2M barrel per day, but I will assume 2.5M barrel for sake of optimism
Crude oil sells at slightly above $40/ barrel but I will assume $45/ barrel
Most JV agreements with Oil corporations stands at an average of 60% for Nigerian govt.
Cost of production of oil for most companies stand at almost 50% but I will assume 30% (optimist case) and then 70% profit
Only about 52% of total earnings goes to the FG, the remaining goes to state allocations and host state derivation
Assuming an exchange rate 200 naira per dollar and 365 days a year

Federal Government can make approximately 1.8 trillion naira from crude sales for 2016 optimally. Details below
so 2.5Million x $45 x 60% x 70% x 52% x 200 x 365 = 1.8 Trillion Naira

Historically, crude has formed about 70% of our budgets.... following same logic, total budget can only be 2.6 trillion Naira (1.8Trillion/ 70%)

Even if we increase taxes, collapse all tax and duty exemptions and without any diversification efforts by the current government, we will be lucky to add another 1trillion the 2.6 trillion to make it a maximum of 3.6 trillion.

So realistically speaking, 8 trillion FG budget is impossible for 2016. Propagandically speaking, APC govt have said it and they believe their zombies will believe it.

In addition, APC FG has claimed that 2016 budget will be developed through zero budget based budgeting. Now without ministers who are supposed to draw up the budget components within their ministries ..... how exactly did Osibanjo come up with 8 trillion when zero based budget was the agreed method?

Very poor.

Is this what you are taught in school about economics?
It's not arithmetic; goodness!

And some peeps who don't understand a jack are adding their
"likes". Na wa ooooooo. I see why most of you are unemployable.

Go back to the 1st page and read what NgeneUkwenu delivered there
atleast, that is a simple way to explain it

Learn boy, learn!

Up 9ja.

sammhi:
sorry, that is not zero based budgeting. ..nothing to do with frugality..but more of reality..frugality has to do with those operating the system..you can still be wasteful under a zero based budget.
a zero based means you start afresh..most budget are based on previous years earning and performance....but a zero based does not take into account the previous year(s) income and expenditure....it is as if nothing has ever happened. it has its advantages and disadvantages

Flets:
Maybe you need to go learn about zero based budgeting for yourself first.

IT IS NOT ASSUMING YOU HAVE NO MONEY IN YOUR POCKET ....... DO YOU UNDERSTAND THAT NOW?

Zero based budgeting means building your budget from new cost components and structures. It means developing new basis for all budget components and not referencing previous budget basis.

E.g. The 2015 budget for developing a kilometer of road would have been based on escalating 2014 actual cost to reflect current day basis. Under zero budget budgeting, no reference will be made to the previous budget basis.... rather the budget will be based on today's executable bids and rates.

Now run along.......

All you just blow their na big grammar. Solving simple problem with complex solution.

@bold what is the difference between that and a street boy who assumes he has no money. It means the same thing. It means a conductor doesn't care how much you paid for T.fare yesterday it is what is obtainable today that he collects. You give him N1000 early in the morning he tells you no change despite going home with about N12000 in N200 & N100 denominations

You see the two of you just analysed the expenditure side of the budget. Now tell me in a zero based budget, what happens to the previous revenue you generated? Do you calculate your new revenue based on the previous revenue?

When I say street like is it not d same thing with starting afresh. Probably you don't know what street life is. Street life means you deal with life as it comes. Yesterday is gone. You only deal with now and what happens in the present. In the street, you assume(not definite) you don't have money. Ask any conductor in the morning for change, they will tell you they don't have irrespective of the amount of change they took home the previous day.

Nothing like historical cost. Do you now get it that I was explaining to a layman who knows little or nothing about budgeting and not you who knows too much and finds it hard to relate it to a street person.

BTW they were talking about the generation of the revenue so I didn't bother to go into the expenditure side.

lets see how buhari's policy helps our economy... at least there is a fear of corruption and "stealing" now.

NgeneUkwenu:
It seems, you Guys don't understand the message or maybe the way the Punch Newspaper presented it.

Let me explain:

The 8Trillion Naira will be the total revenue generated by the Fed. Government in the next fiscal year. This will be made possible with the current introduction of TSA. No MDA (NNPC, NPA, NIMSA, Etc) will have a separate budget from that of the FG Govt. Unlike what we used to have. Therefore, the Fed budget will capture all their budgetary needs.

In the times past, these agencies generate, spend and pay a certain percentage of the surplus to the govt. They run the agencies as a separate country financially.

Zero Budgeting: Each Ministry/MDA will be given a "plain sheet of paper" to write what it needs for the fiscal year based on the economic policy of the Federal Government. With it, every kobo proposed by any agency or ministry will be justified. This is totally different from what was obtainable under PDP, where it operated what was known as budget padding, where the ministries just dust up the previous years budget and add some figures and Pronto, it becomes the new budget.

The person you just educated actually passed through school but the school didn't pass through him

This 2x of jonathan budget 4 a year.one thing with apc is that their agenda are not realistic only meant to heighten the hopes of poor nigerians.they are proposing an 8tri budget without mention the money will go into.and still yet buhari is singing that jonathan left empty treasury or is that these 5months he has generated 8tri for next year n 400bil bear out fund to states