₦airaland Forum

psucc:
N8t and zero based!!! It's damn too high. Anyway I hope they know what that figure stands for. Or it's not Oshiomhole's number!!!!

Let it not be they are banking on loot recovery to come out with thus number o?

I don't want to hear, we did not say it. Osi baba I hope you are not playing another Garba Shehu here o?

it is a whooping
$40 billion dollar revenue!
I will be back with the analysis!

NgeneUkwenu:
It seems, you Guys don't understand the message or maybe the way the Punch Newspaper presented it.

Let me explain:

The 8Trillion Naira will be the total revenue generated by the Fed. Government in the next fiscal year. This will be made possible with the current introduction of TSA. No MDA (NNPC, NPA, NIMSA, Etc) will have a separate budget from that of the FG Govt. Unlike what we used to have. Therefore, the Fed budget will capture all their budgetary needs.

In the times past, these agencies generate, spend and pay a certain percentage of the surplus to the govt. They run the agencies as a separate country financially.

Zero Budgeting: Each Ministry/MDA will be given a "plain sheet of paper" to write what it needs for the fiscal year based on the economic policy of the Federal Government. With it, every kobo proposed by any agency or ministry will be justified. This is totally different from what was obtainable under PDP, where it operated what was known as budget padding, where the ministries just dust up the previous years budget and add some figures and Pronto, it becomes the new budget.

Thank you very much this is a simple layman explanation of it all,I belief this should put to rest the notion of whether the budget is realistic or not .

I see a new Nigeria

DelGardo:
The vice president of Nigeria is traditionally in charge of the economy.

The economy under Jonathan was in tatters because Jona had no clue and Sambo was a ghost worker.

Osinbajo, on the other hand, seems to have a good grip on things. Long may it continue.

Change is here.

keep deceiving urself. 10 osibanjos isn't equivalent to half iweala. That woman was the best nigeria could ever have. Just that hate no gree peeps like una allow her work. Maybe they plan to print naira notes to raise d 8 trillion else be ready to pay tax truh ur nose

Flets:
This government should be reminded that elections are over. Enough of these noises as reality have set in already.

Lets do some simple mathematics.
Nigeria's total crude production currently hovers at 2M barrel per day, but I will assume 2.5M barrel for sake of optimism
Crude oil sells at slightly above $40/ barrel but I will assume $45/ barrel
Most JV agreements with Oil corporations stands at an average of 60% for Nigerian govt.
Cost of production of oil for most companies stand at almost 50% but I will assume 30% (optimist case) and then 70% profit
Only about 52% of total earnings goes to the FG, the remaining goes to state allocations and host state derivation
Assuming an exchange rate 200 naira per dollar and 365 days a year

Federal Government can make approximately 1.8 trillion naira from crude sales for 2016 optimally. Details below
so 2.5Million x $45 x 60% x 70% x 52% x 200 x 365 = 1.8 Trillion Naira

Historically, crude has formed about 70% of our budgets.... following same logic, total budget can only be 2.6 trillion Naira (1.8Trillion/ 70%)

Even if we increase taxes, collapse all tax and duty exemptions and without any diversification efforts by the current government, we will be lucky to add another 1trillion the 2.6 trillion to make it a maximum of 3.6 trillion.

So realistically speaking, 8 trillion FG budget is impossible for 2016. Propagandically speaking, APC govt have said it and they believe their zombies will believe it.

In addition, APC FG has claimed that 2016 budget will be developed through zero budget based budgeting. Now without ministers who are supposed to draw up the budget components within their ministries ..... how exactly did Osibanjo come up with 8 trillion when zero based budget was the agreed method?


And for those quoting revenues from Gases- NLNG; Inflow from Royalties (Oil and Gas and other ones); Non- Oil revenues; Custom Duties; Fines and Penalties; Licenses etc...... You need to understand that these are not new revenue sources, they have always been there and only contribute about 30% of the budget while crude sales provides the rest. Y'all need to learn, crude earnings - 70%; non-crude earnings - 30%. As such, estimated budget of 2.6 trillion had that all included if non-crude contribution remains at 30%.

Some dullards are now clicking likes. Is he a CBN Governor or a Director in Federal Ministry of Finance? What basis has he analysed the economy under ten minutes? playing to the gallery.

bigtt76:
That means more tax and less tax exemptions in the coming year.

110 million poor? So the remaining 70 million are rich? How come sir

In economy, we dont only have rich and poor class. There is also another called middle class. so your calculations of number of rich people is wrong

TonyeBarcanista:
Where will they get the money to fund the budget? I hope nobody is considering loan?

Now you are thinking!!!!

NgeneUkwenu:
It seems, you Guys don't understand the message or maybe the way the Punch Newspaper presented it.

Let me explain:

The 8Trillion Naira will be the total revenue generated by the Fed. Government in the next fiscal year. This will be made possible with the current introduction of TSA. No MDA (NNPC, NPA, NIMSA, Etc) will have a separate budget from that of the FG Govt. Unlike what we used to have. Therefore, the Fed budget will capture all their budgetary needs.

In the times past, these agencies generate, spend and pay a certain percentage of the surplus to the govt. They run the agencies as a separate country financially.

Zero Budgeting: Each Ministry/MDA will be given a "plain sheet of paper" to write what it needs for the fiscal year based on the economic policy of the Federal Government. With it, every kobo proposed by any agency or ministry will be justified. This is totally different from what was obtainable under PDP, where it operated what was known as budget padding, where the ministries just dust up the previous years budget and add some figures and Pronto, it becomes the new budget.

Good explanation, Madam. However, you failed to explain how the FG intends to raise the N8trn total revenue considering the times we are in. Zero budgeting or budget padding as you called it, most Govt Agencies and ministries do not spend the revenues they generate without recourse to the approved national budget from which their budgets firm a sub-set.
NNPC, for one, I know have never operated a budget separate from the FG's; it's budget has always been approved by the FG and flows from the FG's budget . With NNPC, it has never been an issue of running a parallel budget but rather it is about budget performance and extra-budgetary expenditures (most times a result of Govt drawdown).
I would love to see us generate the 8trn but methinks that without obtaining loans that amount will be a mirage. Maybe I'm wrong, but then we have to wait for their explanation!

modelmike7:
I am 100% sure that Nigeria is in safe hands. God bless the Presidency.

....same here

Flets:
This government should be reminded that elections are over. Enough of these noises as reality have set in already.

Lets do some simple mathematics.
Nigeria's total crude production currently hovers at 2M barrel per day, but I will assume 2.5M barrel for sake of optimism
Crude oil sells at slightly above $40/ barrel but I will assume $45/ barrel
Most JV agreements with Oil corporations stands at an average of 60% for Nigerian govt.
Cost of production of oil for most companies stand at almost 50% but I will assume 30% (optimist case) and then 70% profit
Only about 52% of total earnings goes to the FG, the remaining goes to state allocations and host state derivation
Assuming an exchange rate 200 naira per dollar and 365 days a year

Federal Government can make approximately 1.8 trillion naira from crude sales for 2016 optimally. Details below
so 2.5Million x $45 x 60% x 70% x 52% x 200 x 365 = 1.8 Trillion Naira

Historically, crude has formed about 70% of our budgets.... following same logic, total budget can only be 2.6 trillion Naira (1.8Trillion/ 70%)

Even if we increase taxes, collapse all tax and duty exemptions and without any diversification efforts by the current government, we will be lucky to add another 1trillion the 2.6 trillion to make it a maximum of 3.6 trillion.

So realistically speaking, 8 trillion FG budget is impossible for 2016. Propagandically speaking, APC govt have said it and they believe their zombies will believe it.

In addition, APC FG has claimed that 2016 budget will be developed through zero budget based budgeting. Now without ministers who are supposed to draw up the budget components within their ministries ..... how exactly did Osibanjo come up with 8 trillion when zero based budget was the agreed method?


And for those quoting revenues from Gases- NLNG; Inflow from Royalties (Oil and Gas and other ones); Non- Oil revenues; Custom Duties; Fines and Penalties; Licenses etc...... You need to understand that these are not new revenue sources, they have always been there and only contribute about 30% of the budget while crude sales provides the rest. Y'all need to learn, crude earnings - 70%; non-crude earnings - 30%. As such, estimated budget of 2.6 trillion had that all included if non-crude contribution remains at 30%.

God bless u Flets, u remind me of datolee.

Flets:
This has been public knowledge for a long time. Your ignorance is no excuse.
Infact... Buhari is yet to understand this yet

Stop this lying. It was all opaque before Buhari came on board. Even your conscience is aware of this.

chukel:
I look at some comments, I see hypocrisy. U guys wail u want free feeding for school kids, 5k for unemployed as promised during campaign. Now a budget of 8trillion is being proposed and u scream propaganda. Do u think government is run d way u guys recklessly run ur individual savings?
What u demand for as promised during campaign is being reflected in that budget. As for those asking where they want to fund the budget from.... if only u know how reckless and how "kleptocratic" the previous government was, u would kn funding won't be an issue. do u have problems with 2 trillion for capital projects? Take away the 5k for the unemployed wailers and feeding for school kids, u will see 2 trillion will almost be 60% of that budget. You think 2 trillion is small? Just check the figures used in building monuments, edifices and world class developmental projects around the world. If pdp in the last 16yrs was able to sincerely plant in 1 trillion yearly to capital projects, we would have been better than dubai. Sai Buhari. Click like if u believe positive change has come.

well u cant and shouldnt compare china with Nigeria., the chinese power will involve at least 95% of it materials and personell from within so they wil spend way less than us. Am not suporting pdps mismanagement[our political class inclusive apshit]. But we should stop the baseless comparison.

Flets:
This government should be reminded that elections are over. Enough of these noises as reality have set in already.

Lets do some simple mathematics.
Nigeria's total crude production currently hovers at 2M barrel per day, but I will assume 2.5M barrel for sake of optimism
Crude oil sells at slightly above $40/ barrel but I will assume $45/ barrel
Most JV agreements with Oil corporations stands at an average of 60% for Nigerian govt.
Cost of production of oil for most companies stand at almost 50% but I will assume 30% (optimist case) and then 70% profit
Only about 52% of total earnings goes to the FG, the remaining goes to state allocations and host state derivation
Assuming an exchange rate 200 naira per dollar and 365 days a year

Federal Government can make approximately 1.8 trillion naira from crude sales for 2016 optimally. Details below
so 2.5Million x $45 x 60% x 70% x 52% x 200 x 365 = 1.8 Trillion Naira

Historically, crude has formed about 70% of our budgets.... following same logic, total budget can only be 2.6 trillion Naira (1.8Trillion/ 70%)

Even if we increase taxes, collapse all tax and duty exemptions and without any diversification efforts by the current government, we will be lucky to add another 1trillion the 2.6 trillion to make it a maximum of 3.6 trillion.

So realistically speaking, 8 trillion FG budget is impossible for 2016. Propagandically speaking, APC govt have said it and they believe their zombies will believe it.

In addition, APC FG has claimed that 2016 budget will be developed through zero budget based budgeting. Now without ministers who are supposed to draw up the budget components within their ministries ..... how exactly did Osibanjo come up with 8 trillion when zero based budget was the agreed method?


And for those quoting revenues from Gases- NLNG; Inflow from Royalties (Oil and Gas and other ones); Non- Oil revenues; Custom Duties; Fines and Penalties; Licenses etc...... You need to understand that these are not new revenue sources, they have always been there and only contribute about 30% of the budget while crude sales provides the rest. Y'all need to learn, crude earnings - 70%; non-crude earnings - 30%. As such, estimated budget of 2.6 trillion had that all included if non-crude contribution remains at 30%.

Your calculations are laughably wrong. But even without going into a detailed rebuttal of your figures, if you claim earnings are at a cap of 3.6tn, how do you account for the budget of 4.4trn for 2015?

As for ministers, you talk like if there are no permanent secretaries in the ministries to do most of the legwork.

Either way, wait for the first draft of the budget to show up before you start babbling.

philips70:
Ok I don hear. E be like say you don forget say Buhari siddon on top the yams this time. All goats don enter one chance.

Men, Baba no wan give anybody space to share yam o. The goats must be hungry and angry with him.

2tn out of 8tn for capital project is 25%, which is even lower than OBJ and GEJ budget.. 75% on recurrent expenditure is another way to reward political jobbers. To much chopping money..

bigtt76:
That means more tax and less tax exemptions in the coming year.

110 million poor? So the remaining 70 million are rich? How come sir

Madam there is a good between the poor and the rich. I have and the have nots. They are called the middle class. Once you separate the poor from the rich, the balance is called middle class.

The middle class is usu the largest category in any healthy society. That is not the case in Nigeria because our society is not healthy.

Don't mind me am just trying to do some economics here

IyaIode:
All these are projections anyways before people come and say Buhari promised them 8 trillion

Yorubas will say the villagers know the king in whose reign the town as peaceful, they will also not easily forget the king in whose reign they groaned.

IyaIode:
40% on capital project is still low in my opinion especially for a country on the edge of depression. Impressive direction though

40% may be low but if implemented to the letter, it should make more impact on the citizenry than 60 or more % where over 3/4 of which ended up in private pockets and offshore accounts.

One shouldn't complain of a gift/bird being too big when the owner hasn't even finished un-wrapping it.

IyaIode:
Very pitiable analysis.

Why not post your own "Superior Analysis", that should enlighten people more

redsconsult:
if within 3months mda can generate over 1.4Trillion naira i think the zerobase 8trillion naira is feasible. and less coruption means more development and more job opportunities.

I kind of agree with you, Nigerian Immigrations and Passport offices also need some sanitizations. The brazenry there will baffle a sane person.

Flets:
This government should be reminded that elections are over. Enough of these noises as reality have set in already.

Lets do some simple mathematics.
Nigeria's total crude production currently hovers at 2M barrel per day, but I will assume 2.5M barrel for sake of optimism
Crude oil sells at slightly above $40/ barrel but I will assume $45/ barrel
Most JV agreements with Oil corporations stands at an average of 60% for Nigerian govt.
Cost of production of oil for most companies stand at almost 50% but I will assume 30% (optimist case) and then 70% profit
Only about 52% of total earnings goes to the FG, the remaining goes to state allocations and host state derivation
Assuming an exchange rate 200 naira per dollar and 365 days a year

Federal Government can make approximately 1.8 trillion naira from crude sales for 2016 optimally. Details below
so 2.5Million x $45 x 60% x 70% x 52% x 200 x 365 = 1.8 Trillion Naira

Historically, crude has formed about 70% of our budgets.... following same logic, total budget can only be 2.6 trillion Naira (1.8Trillion/ 70%)

Even if we increase taxes, collapse all tax and duty exemptions and without any diversification efforts by the current government, we will be lucky to add another 1trillion the 2.6 trillion to make it a maximum of 3.6 trillion.

So realistically speaking, 8 trillion FG budget is impossible for 2016. Propagandically speaking, APC govt have said it and they believe their zombies will believe it.

In addition, APC FG has claimed that 2016 budget will be developed through zero budget based budgeting. Now without ministers who are supposed to draw up the budget components within their ministries ..... how exactly did Osibanjo come up with 8 trillion when zero based budget was the agreed method?


And for those quoting revenues from Gases- NLNG; Inflow from Royalties (Oil and Gas and other ones); Non- Oil revenues; Custom Duties; Fines and Penalties; Licenses etc...... You need to understand that these are not new revenue sources, they have always been there and only contribute about 30% of the budget while crude sales provides the rest. Y'all need to learn, crude earnings - 70%; non-crude earnings - 30%. As such, estimated budget of 2.6 trillion had that all included if non-crude contribution remains at 30%.

Well, the man made an audacious statement I agree, but he's not a man of words, so he must have something up his sleeves.
Let's wait and see.... So long as they won't come next year and start the blame game they've been at recently all over.

nwanna89:
If budget is 8 trillion, govt should try to spend more on capital projects. Lot of decay in infrastructure esp roads. Also i noticed Osinbajo seems to have been put in charge of economic affairs. While he is a well-read man, he is lawyer and is not an expert in that area. So i hope Buhari has plans to put one of the more qualified ministerial nominees in charge of drawing up a budget.

Maybe with 8 trillion naira budget, FG really does have plans to pay 5k and feed school kids

That he's a lawyer doesn't make him any less a good macroeconomist.
Awolowo read commerce and that even by distance learning. Go find out how prosperous the old Western Region was under him.
So all it takes is a willing mind.
I studied Engineering in School myself but I can still talk of a somewhat average grasp of economic realities.

NgeneUkwenu:
It seems, you Guys don't understand the message or maybe the way the Punch Newspaper presented it.

Let me explain:

The 8Trillion Naira will be the total revenue generated by the Fed. Government in the next fiscal year. This will be made possible with the current introduction of TSA. No MDA (NNPC, NPA, NIMSA, Etc) will have a separate budget from that of the FG Govt. Unlike what we used to have. Therefore, the Fed budget will capture all their budgetary needs.

In the times past, these agencies generate, spend and pay a certain percentage of the surplus to the govt. They run the agencies as a separate country financially.

Zero Budgeting: Each Ministry/MDA will be given a "plain sheet of paper" to write what it needs for the fiscal year based on the economic policy of the Federal Government. With it, every kobo proposed by any agency or ministry will be justified. This is totally different from what was obtainable under PDP, where it operated what was known as budget padding, where the ministries just dust up the previous years budget and add some figures and Pronto, it becomes the new budget.

A thousand likes for this comment. gbam

NgeneUkwenu:
It seems, you Guys don't understand the message or maybe the way the Punch Newspaper presented it.

Let me explain:

The 8Trillion Naira will be the total revenue generated by the Fed. Government in the next fiscal year. This will be made possible with the current introduction of TSA. No MDA (NNPC, NPA, NIMSA, Etc) will have a separate budget from that of the FG Govt. Unlike what we used to have. Therefore, the Fed budget will capture all their budgetary needs.

In the times past, these agencies generate, spend and pay a certain percentage of the surplus to the govt. They run the agencies as a separate country financially.

Zero Budgeting: Each Ministry/MDA will be given a "plain sheet of paper" to write what it needs for the fiscal year based on the economic policy of the Federal Government. With it, every kobo proposed by any agency or ministry will be justified. This is totally different from what was obtainable under PDP, where it operated what was known as budget padding, where the ministries just dust up the previous years budget and add some figures and Pronto, it becomes the new budget.

But why U 2Sabi something, FAVOUR is on U WAY

I thought they said nigeria is broke, the figure shows nigeria is not broke. They only gave us liars...

.

OrlandoOwoh:
I wonder the type of VP Namadi Sambo was.

An architect. E elped crafted d failures wit strong connivance n unrivaled support from uncle J-boy n dey HAPPILY achieved unprecedented height in destroying d economy. After all, dey had no different plans.

989900:
I see intent of purpose.
I see relative honesty and transparency.
I see ambition.
I see determination to prove doubters wrong.
Hopefully, we get to actually feel it!

GBAM!!! In short, GBAMGBAM!!! Bros na u talk sometin. Na u land. Others still d fly.

N2tr already "missing" out of the proposed budget.

bigtt76:
That means more tax and less tax exemptions in the coming year.

110 million poor? So the remaining 70 million are rich? How come sir

I quite agree with your first line. But the second? No because the 110 million must have been the adult population whereas the 70 million you proposed must also include the children/Adolescent population. So the Rich's total population is not upto 70million from the above analysis/assumption.
Note: My disagreement does not in any way portray a dislike or hatred to your point of view oo but just trying to expantiate on the angle you are coming from nee ooo ok

Pay our alloweeee

You're very correct and thanks for the valid point made. The report itself was quite ambiguous. A reader would definitely need to rack his or her brain to actually know the middle-class still exists in the country without being told they're not just visible. To me if you not at the top... you just nowhere else but at the lower wrung of the ladder... Sad

Kbs468:
I quite agree with your first line. But the second? No because the 110 million must have been the adult population whereas the 70 million you proposed must also include the children/Adolescent population. So the Rich's total population is not upto 70million from the above analysis/assumption.
Note: My disagreement does not in any way portray a dislike or hatred to your point of view oo but just trying to expantiate on the angle you are coming from nee ooo ok