₦airaland Forum

Few weeks back I was on vacation in bauchi, northern Nigeria, stayed with a childhood friend(barrister Caleb A.)who serves in the state, and I fell sick. The symptoms were new to me, and the pain was growing by the day. Eventually I decided to seek help at the local clinic. A young doctor began to inspect me, prodding my stomach, gripping my shoulders and knees and poking each vertebra. I began to suspect that he had no idea what my problem was, but I wasn't really sure so I endure the strange examination. To signal its end he pulled out his note book and said 'Antibiotics. Take one tablet three times a day. It will get worse before it gets better.' glad that I now had a treatment, I dragged myself back to my friend's place with the prescription in hand.

The pain grew worse and worse-just as the doctor had predicted. The doctor must have known what was wrong with me after all. But, when the pain hadn't subsided after three days, I called him. ' increase the dose to five times daily. It's going to hurt for a while more' he said. After four more days of agony, I finally called a doctor friend who works with JUTH in jos. The doctor friend diagnosed appendicitis and operated on me immediately. ' why wait so long?' he asked me after the surgery.
I replied: 'it all happened exactly as the doctor said,so I trusted him
'Ah, you fell victim to the it'll -get worse before it gets better fallacy. The doctor in bauchi had no idea, probably just the same type of stand-in people you find in all the tourist places in high season.'



Lets take another example: a CEO is at his wits' end. Sales are in the toilet, the salespeople are unmotivated, and the marketing campaign has sunk without a trace. In his desperation he hires a consultant. For #50,000 per day. This man analysis the company and comes back with his findings: 'your sales department has no vision, and your brand isn't positioned clearly. It's a tricky situation. I can fix it for you - but not over night. The measure will require sensitivity and most likely salea will fall further before things improve.' The CEO hires the consultant. A year later, sales fall and the same thing happens the next year. Again and again the consultant stresses that the company's progress corresponds closely to his predictions. As sales continue their slump in the third year, the CEO fires the consultant.

A mere smokescreen, the it'll - get - worse- before-it -gets-better fallacy is a variant of the so called confirmation bias. If the problem continues to worsen, the prediction is confirmed. If the situation improves unexpectedly the CEO is happy and the expert can attribute it to his prowess. Either way he wins.

Suppose you are president to a country, and have no idea how to run it. What do you do? You predict 'difficult years' ahead, ask the citizens to 'tighten their belts', and then promise to improve the situation after this 'delicate stage of cleansing, purification and restructuring'. Naturally you leave the duration and the severity of the period open with no specified date.

In conclusion if someone tells you 'it will get worse before it gets better' it's either the have no idea of the problem or lack the leadership skills to provide solutions as seen in the myriad of problems in Nigeria today.

you are entitled to your opinion op but the fact remains that you did not make any sense to me

SweetyZinta:
you are entitled to your opinion op but the fact remains that you did not make any sense to me

Really? Then probably all brains are not the same

SweetyZinta:
you are entitled to your opinion op but the fact remains that you did not make any sense to me

Then what's the essence of commenting? if you can't understand him which i doubt, it would have been better for you to ignore his post completely by only viewing it, and not exhibing this
crass ignorance in a public forum as large as NL. Mind you, no one is under compulsion to dance skelewu or dabbing on nairaland. Thanks.

santino09:
Really? Then probably all brains are not the same

yeah, how is it my fault that my comment reminds you of ur weakness?
brains differ. we have 1gigabyte, 4gb, 8gb, 16gb etc it obvious your brain is just [color=#000000] 1gb[/color]

SweetyZinta:
yeah, how is it my fault that my comment reminds you of ur weakness?
brains differ. we have 1gigabyte, 4gb, 8gb, 16gb etc it obvious your brain is just [color=#000000] 1gb[/color]

one gig. Chai na chinko phone

orimsamsam:
one gig. Chai na chinko phone