₦airaland Forum

It is less than seven days to go and I am still convinced the forthcoming Ondo gubernatorial election is all PDP's to lose. All that the party needs to do is to get certain basics right and work together as a family. The social media has been taken over by rival political parties in the state but then over the time, we have all come to accept that social media propaganda do not win elections. People and structures do. In as much as I do not want to preempt the court, I shall stick to the person whose name still appears on the INEC list to form the basis of my conviction. I am not going to be carried away by unrealistic intellectual idealism in my narrative but shall be advised by the reality of our democracy as a people in Ondo state.
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There are four major contending parties that will determine the outcome of the forthcoming election with their votes on November 26.They are Alliance for Democracy, All Progressive Congress, People's Democratic Party and Social Democratic Party. All other parties will poll inconsequential votes. The four parties enumerated above have flagbearers and deputy flagbearers spread across the three Senatorial Districts the state is divided into namely; Ondo Central, Ondo South and Ondo North. The dominating people in these districts are as follow: Ondo and Akure in the Central. Ilaje and Ikale in the South and Akoko and Owo in the North. Dominating people here doesn't deny the presence of other people like the Idanres, Ijaws in some of these districts. Rather it suggests that the "dominating people" often set the pace for the others.

AD parades Barrister Olushola Oke an Ilaje man from the South with his deputy Ganny Dauda an Akoko from the North. APC parades Barrister Akeredolu an Owo man from the North with his deputy Agboola an Ilaje from the South. PDP boasts of Barrister Jimoh Ibrahim an Ikale man from the South with his deputy Ebenezer Alabi an Akure man from the Central. Finally, SDP brings into the game Dr Olu Agunloye an Akoko man from the North with Erelu Modupe Martins an Ikale woman from the South.
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This might prove too cumbersome to comprehend but you may wish to reread slowly because therein lies the secret to correctly predict who might win the forthcoming polls.
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What do we know about the traditional voting pattern of the state from recent elections especially since the new advent of democracy. The Central has the largest voting strength followed by the South and the North in that order. Numbers matter. Politics is after all a game of numbers.
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The Central are perhaps the most unpredictable of the three Districts when it comes to voting patterns. It is generally believed that their sheer numerical strength can determine a poll winner in a guber race. Unfortunately, they are the most cosmopolitan and you never can guess their motivation on an election day.

The South is a traditional PDP stronghold.

The North since time immemorial has voted AD, AC, ACN and APC in that metamorphic order . It will take a miracle in the mould of waking a dead Lazarus for any party aside APC to win that District.
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Well so much for voting pattern. What does the reality on ground says? There are two major identified parties (AD and SDP) that are not factored in the voting pattern. How would their entrance influence the forthcoming poll? I will tell you how. One, the root of these parties flagbearers and deputy flagbearers and their result in a popularity test.
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Olusola Oke (AD) is from Ilaje in the South which is a traditional PDP stronghold. That's his root. His is very popular. That's an objective popularity test result. Will he win the South then? Most likely. He has a lot to benefit from PDP's lack of hegemony going to the contest. He is going to tamper with the traditional voting pattern this one time.

Dr Olu Agunloye (SDP) is from Akoko in the North which is a traditional APC stronghold. That's his root. He is a son of the soil. That's an objective popularity test. Will he win the North then? Very unlikely. But whatever happens, he is going to get a healthy junk of the votes from the North. He will manage to tamper with the voting pattern even if the effect would be minimal.

What does all these mean? Oke wins Ilaje and maybe halves Ikale, Aketi wins Owo and most likely Akoko? Jimoh Ibrahim halves Ikale and Agunloye shares the spoils in Akoko.

Pray, who wins Ondo and Akure?
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I can beat my chest that whoever wins these two people wins the election.
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What does voting patterns tell us? Do not forget that the places where the voting pattern have majorly been tampered with are North and South with the entrance of new parties having flagbearers from the two districts. This leaves us with the Central which has the largest voting strength. Now, two things will determine who wins the Central which is dominated by Ondos and Akures and by statistics have the largest eligible voters. They are the Deputy slot and Power of Incumbency. The deputy slot becomes an imperative factor since none of the deciding parties picked a candidate from the Central and strangely only one picked her deputy from the valuable district. Coincidentally, these two factors work perfectly for the PDP. Ebenezer Alabi the PDP deputy candidate is an Akure man while the incumbent Governor is an Ondo man. The central remains the PDP's for taking.

Do you see why I am convinced that with basic strategy and hegemony, PDP still remains the most favoured to win the election? Out of the two factors that can win the Central, Deputy and Incumbency, the latter is very vital because wherever the latter tilts to shall go a long way to determine who eventually wins this election.
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So let's have this redrawn one last time. Oke wins Ilaje and halves Ikale, Aketi wins Owo and Akoko, Jimoh halves Ikale, Akure and Ondo and Agunloye wins nought.
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I know this look too improbable. "Enu dun rofo". But if I were the Governor, this is how my head would think and my game plan would be tailored towards achieving same; something I'm sure the great Iroko could achieve if he sets his mind towards it.
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Whatever happens, the state braces herself up to be governed by a Lawyer after the Medical Doctor.
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Adedayo OlaOluwa Fisayo aka Ogbeni La is a social media enthusiast and a political conscious student and youth leader. He is presently the Coordinator of Ondo State Youth Network and a PDP sympathiser.

brilliantly written from an a well informed mind


mynd444



lalasticlala Sir this I'd informative Sirs


it need a wide audience

well, mimiko is working for APC. so rejig your thoughts.

If Dr Mimiko dare support Jimoh Ibrahim, are you saying that "the cosmopolitan" central senatorial district will still vote for him? I doubt it. Remember that Dr Goodluck Jonathan lost the central senatorial district despite Dr Mimiko's support last year. The people here are mostly unpredictable Sir.

I supposed they will rather vote for a party that is willing to gift them a deputy slot than the others with no such provision. The Central stands to gain more from a PDP victory. This should be the sentiment whipped by PDP and a valid one

Lovely... Our fingers are cross...

front page

lalasticlala

TplenT:
Why do people who are not on ground in Ondo state comment on issues like this now ?? haba.must U guys talk ?.

We in Akure knows who's pulling the crowd and who's not.Jegede would have been a better match for Oke but unfortunately for him,he no more in the race.As it stands,Oke has the highest chance of winning this election.How abi ??

1. Southern Senatorial district : Can Aketi ever even dream of winning in any of the six local governments in this place where Oke has his major Support base ?.If he manages at all,that might be Ese odo where his deputy(Agboola Ajayi) hails from cos Agboola is also no push over in his own local government and also being an Ijaw guy might want to play Ijaw sentiments.This senatorial district is soo sure for Oke.

2.Central district : this is the district with the highest vote and also where Mimiko hails from.Mimiko sensing his political death decided to play on the so called 'Akure Agenda' to pick a successor in Eyitayo Jegede from here so that he could garner the entire votes from Both Akure and Ondo,gather a few votes here and there and snick a narrow win.With Eyitayo no more in the race and the massive hatred for Mimiko here in Akure,this area will be shared between Oke and Aketi.

3.North district : this is where Aketi hails from.Unfortunately for him,he can only boast of support from 2 (Ose and Owo)out of 8 local goverments in the area.He is very much hated in the remaining 6 Akoko local governments which used to be sure bankers for ACN/APC simply because both Segun Abraham and Ajayi Borrofice whom he defeated in the primaries are from there.These 2 guys remain in APC but on instruction from Tinubu are working for AD.

For people mentioning Jimoh Ibrahim,he even isn't campaigning here at all.Believe me and ask anyone around here.

This election basically is between Tinubu and Buhari Cabal and a dress rehearsal for APC scheeming for 2019.

hmmmm they don dey start analyzing their election as if d people that is replying here are notice. Abeg sleep for one side ok. Ur analysis here is baseless. U are very biased with ur analysis and it will really shock u and surprise d results of d zones u analyze here. U can not be analyzing what happens four years ago and u expect are expecting the same results no way and it will not happen. Things av change drastically. D masses are getting wiser by the day. They will never vote to a betrayer and political protistute Oke. Oke is loosing the upcoming election cos' he failed when he decamped to another party without seeking advice from other party chieftains. He thinks he is smart not knowing he fail when he joined AD. AD party is not known in ondo state. U will be shocked when u heard d results of d election favoring Aketi on every local government.am sorry for Oke he will be surprise with the results coming during d counting of the ballot papers. He will be shock when d results are not favoring him. In his stronghold all d votes will be divided. D three candidates will share d vote among themselves. So far from my groundroot research Akleti is leading among d 3 candidates. It will shock u and ur supporters when Aketi is been declared d winner.

U need to check your brain, we are not going to be slave to Fulani's like u and Aketi ..... For the op, point of correction Aketi Deputy is not from ILAJE is an APOI Man from Ese-odo local government before you write anything in favor of your pay master do proper finding. OKE IS OK.

Johnnyessence:
hmmmm they don dey start analyzing their election as if d people that is replying here are notice. Abeg sleep for one side ok. Ur analysis here is baseless. U are very biased with ur analysis and it will really shock u and surprise d results of d zones u analyze here. U can not be analyzing what happens four years ago and u expect are expecting the same results no way and it will not happen. Things av change drastically. D masses are getting wiser by the day. They will never vote to a betrayer and political protistute Oke. Oke is loosing the upcoming election cos' he failed when he decamped to another party without seeking advice from other party chieftains. He thinks he is smart not knowing he fail when he joined AD. AD party is not known in ondo state. U will be shocked when u heard d results of d election favoring Aketi on every local government.am sorry for Oke he will be surprise with the results coming during d counting of the ballot papers. He will be shock when d results are not favoring him. In his stronghold all d votes will be divided. D three candidates will share d vote among themselves. So far from my groundroot research Akleti is leading among d 3 candidates. It will shock u and ur supporters when Aketi is been declared d winner.

U need to check your brain, we are not going to be slave to Fulani's like u and Aketi ..... For the op, point of correction Aketi Deputy is not from ILAJE is an APOI Man from Ese-odo local government before you write anything in favor of your pay master do proper finding. OKE IS OK.

It is getting more obvious that Akeredolu is going to win this election.

With Jegede out of the way and Oke in the race, all the permutations have been seriously distorted.

Ondo South
Oke will win South, Jimoh will act as a spoiler here, reducing his winning margin. Aketi becos of his deputy will also clinch at least one local government. Both Aketi and Jimoh because of their party structure on ground will not allow any manipulation in favour of Oke. His winning numbers will thus not be massive.

Ondo North
Akeredolu will win Ondo North. AD though a known name in Ondo North politics does not have enough structure to secure the votes of Ondo North. Same for Agunloye. In Nigeria's election, apart from canvassing for votes, you also need to jealously guard the votes like an eagle guarding her chicks. This is where AD is going to have a serious set back. But Oke will still do well in the Akoko areas, but the massive wins from Owo and Ose will deliver this senatorial district to Aketi.

Ondo Central
All the 3 major candidates/parties will have a good showing here and the results will be too close to call.

There is going to be a lot of dog fights in this senatorial district.
Ondo township will record low turnout due to the issues PDP is experiencing.

At the end, Aketi will edge a very narrow victory.


Aketi's victory in the North, and narrow victory in the central will make him the next governor of the state. People are free to bookmark this post against poll results next Sunday.

#Well noted...and I will remind u soon.

Johnnyessence:
hmmmm they don dey start analyzing their election as if d people that is replying here are notice. Abeg sleep for one side ok. Ur analysis here is baseless. U are very biased with ur analysis and it will really shock u and surprise d results of d zones u analyze here. U can not be analyzing what happens four years ago and u expect are expecting the same results no way and it will not happen. Things av change drastically. D masses are getting wiser by the day. They will never vote to a betrayer and political protistute Oke. Oke is loosing the upcoming election cos' he failed when he decamped to another party without seeking advice from other party chieftains. He thinks he is smart not knowing he fail when he joined AD. AD party is not known in ondo state. U will be shocked when u heard d results of d election favoring Aketi on every local government.am sorry for Oke he will be surprise with the results coming during d counting of the ballot papers. He will be shock when d results are not favoring him. In his stronghold all d votes will be divided. D three candidates will share d vote among themselves. So far from my groundroot research Akleti is leading among d 3 candidates. It will shock u and ur supporters when Aketi is been declared d winner.