₦airaland Forum

REIIGN:
And our president is busy lying "hale and hearty" in a London hospital. Wasting tax payers money treating an illness which he brought upon himself.

Earth2Metahuman:
Yeah

Ayam not understanding nigeria's economy again


It has gone beyond logic

diva90:
It's still going to go back up to N490. This measure put up is not strong enough to sustain the current 450 rate for a long time and many people are still buying 470 at black market till this moment. The key for true change is for Nigerians and nigeria to stop being extremely dependent on the dollar.

LordAdam16:
In recent days, I've heard lots of predictions about the USD/NGN exchange rate.

Some overzealous believers say it's going down to N200/$1. Some more conservative estimates put it at N350/$1. Others just say less than N400/$1.

The fact is that the rate will hover between N450 and N500 in the short term, pending any drastic action like what happened last week.

The CBN has made it ultimately clear that they would regularly intervene in the market to protect the Naira. Last week's reaction was one of such interventions and highly expected. The government wouldn't let the difference between the parallel and official rate to be more than N200/$1. That is a monetary disaster.

But here's the other fact. There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING the government can do now to harmonize the exchange rates without severe rattling of the economy.

Nigeria is already selling 2.1m barrels of oil a day (almost close to 2.2m barrels high in 2013). The oil price will not cross the $50-$60 band anytime soon. It means Nigeria is making the most money it can make from our single largest foreign earner (which is why our reserves have been rising) at the moment.

The CBN has been plunging money into the market since the managed float started to the tune of several hundreds of millions of dollars weekly (last week it was over $400m, this week it's already over $100m). There is a limit to which they can go.

And that is why the 41 prohibited list still exists, and Nigerian bank cards (aside GTB and Access) cannot do USD transactions.

Last week, the CBN liberalized accessing Forex for students, travelers, and those in need of medical attention. It is a very welcome policy. These groups of FX buyers have been unfairly targeted by the CBN since Buhari stepped on the brakes. But according to even the most generous estimates, these people only account for 20% of the Forex demand. Meaning the black market still caters to a majority of the Forex demand.

Even travelers at the Airports would not get dollars, unless they apply weeks in advance via their banks. This is because no bank in this recession will open FX outlets in airports, despite the instruction from CBN to do so. The major reason is that it's a short term measure that also hurts their bottom line.

For the parallel market rate to fall permanently, the CBN has to liberalize the FX market completely. The prohibited import list has to be redacted and no one should be barred from buying dollars at the official rate (whether he/she is a student or a blogger buying web hosting on NameCheap with a Naira card).

While the naira will become more valuable at the parallel market (from 450+ to 400 or less), it will lose value at the official market (from <315 to between 350 and 400) in the medium term. But the basic idea is that the difference between the official and parallel market rates will be less than 50 naira. And probably go back to 2012 levels of less than 10 naira. Basically, the divergence will no longer be business-worthy for speculators.

Unfortunately, the FG and CBN do not want to do this currently for obvious reasons. For example, we do not even have a fiscal economic plan at the moment. Osinbajo, the minister of budget and planning, and Adeosun have been assembling it for more than 12 months now, and they're yet to unwrap it. Also, our FDI levels are not that encouraging. We are also in a biting recession and it appears the economy is finally recovering (so there's good reason to hold back). Then there's the issue of price of fuel which will inevitably rise to N200+ (no one wants the blow back this would lead to).

Speculators are business men who make their living off plummeting currencies. They are like undertakers who make their living off dead people. If no body dies, the undertaker goes out of business. If an economy strengthens and the currency follows suit, speculators move on to another currency).

Saying speculators are unpatriotic and enemies of Nigeria is VERY SILLY. If the government didn't create the environment for them to thrive, they wouldn't thrive. Leave a bread for days and fungi would grow on it. You can't say the fungi are unpatriotic. Their only patriotism is to their survival.

I expect the parallel market rate to climb albeit slowly in the coming weeks to 470. N500/$1 seems like a stretch now and I expect the CBN to make another intervention if the rate crosses that resistance point again.

Until the Naira is fully floated, the speculators are going no where and the illusion of a N400 or less exchange rate in the parallel market will remain a pipe dream.

-Lord

LordAdam16:
In recent days, I've heard lots of predictions about the USD/NGN exchange rate.

Some overzealous believers say it's going down to N200/$1. Some more conservative estimates put it at N350/$1. Others just say less than N400/$1.

The fact is that the rate will hover between N450 and N500 in the short term, pending any drastic action like what happened last week.

The CBN has made it ultimately clear that they would regularly intervene in the market to protect the Naira. Last week's reaction was one of such interventions and highly expected. The government wouldn't let the difference between the parallel and official rate to be more than N200/$1. That is a monetary disaster.

But here's the other fact. There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING the government can do now to harmonize the exchange rates without severe rattling of the economy.

Nigeria is already selling 2.1m barrels of oil a day (almost close to 2.2m barrels high in 2013). The oil price will not cross the $50-$60 band anytime soon. It means Nigeria is making the most money it can make from our single largest foreign earner (which is why our reserves have been rising) at the moment.

The CBN has been plunging money into the market since the managed float started to the tune of several hundreds of millions of dollars weekly (last week it was over $400m, this week it's already over $100m). There is a limit to which they can go.

And that is why the 41 prohibited list still exists, and Nigerian bank cards (aside GTB and Access) cannot do USD transactions.

Last week, the CBN liberalized accessing Forex for students, travelers, and those in need of medical attention. It is a very welcome policy. These groups of FX buyers have been unfairly targeted by the CBN since Buhari stepped on the brakes. But according to even the most generous estimates, these people only account for 20% of the Forex demand. Meaning the black market still caters to a majority of the Forex demand.

Even travelers at the Airports would not get dollars, unless they apply weeks in advance via their banks. This is because no bank in this recession will open FX outlets in airports, despite the instruction from CBN to do so. The major reason is that it's a short term measure that also hurts their bottom line.

For the parallel market rate to fall permanently, the CBN has to liberalize the FX market completely. The prohibited import list has to be redacted and no one should be barred from buying dollars at the official rate (whether he/she is a student or a blogger buying web hosting on NameCheap with a Naira card).

While the naira will become more valuable at the parallel market (from 450+ to 400 or less), it will lose value at the official market (from <315 to between 350 and 400) in the medium term. But the basic idea is that the difference between the official and parallel market rates will be less than 50 naira. And probably go back to 2012 levels of less than 10 naira. Basically, the divergence will no longer be business-worthy for speculators.

Unfortunately, the FG and CBN do not want to do this currently for obvious reasons. For example, we do not even have a fiscal economic plan at the moment. Osinbajo, the minister of budget and planning, and Adeosun have been assembling it for more than 12 months now, and they're yet to unwrap it. Also, our FDI levels are not that encouraging. We are also in a biting recession and it appears the economy is finally recovering (so there's good reason to hold back). Then there's the issue of price of fuel which will inevitably rise to N200+ (no one wants the blow back this would lead to).

Speculators are business men who make their living off plummeting currencies. They are like undertakers who make their living off dead people. If no body dies, the undertaker goes out of business. If an economy strengthens and the currency follows suit, speculators move on to another currency).

Saying speculators are unpatriotic and enemies of Nigeria is VERY SILLY. If the government didn't create the environment for them to thrive, they wouldn't thrive. Leave a bread for days and fungi would grow on it. You can't say the fungi are unpatriotic. Their only patriotism is to their survival.

I expect the parallel market rate to climb albeit slowly in the coming weeks to 470. N500/$1 seems like a stretch now and I expect the CBN to make another intervention if the rate crosses that resistance point again.

Until the Naira is fully floated, the speculators are going no where and the illusion of a N400 or less exchange rate in the parallel market will remain a pipe dream.

-Lord

LordAdam16:
In recent days, I've heard lots of predictions about the USD/NGN exchange rate.

Some overzealous believers say it's going down to N200/$1. Some more conservative estimates put it at N350/$1. Others just say less than N400/$1.

The fact is that the rate will hover between N450 and N500 in the short term, pending any drastic action like what happened last week.

The CBN has made it ultimately clear that they would regularly intervene in the market to protect the Naira. Last week's reaction was one of such interventions and highly expected. The government wouldn't let the difference between the parallel and official rate to be more than N200/$1. That is a monetary disaster.

But here's the other fact. There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING the government can do now to harmonize the exchange rates without severe rattling of the economy.

Nigeria is already selling 2.1m barrels of oil a day (almost close to 2.2m barrels high in 2013). The oil price will not cross the $50-$60 band anytime soon. It means Nigeria is making the most money it can make from our single largest foreign earner (which is why our reserves have been rising) at the moment.

The CBN has been plunging money into the market since the managed float started to the tune of several hundreds of millions of dollars weekly (last week it was over $400m, this week it's already over $100m). There is a limit to which they can go.

And that is why the 41 prohibited list still exists, and Nigerian bank cards (aside GTB and Access) cannot do USD transactions.

Last week, the CBN liberalized accessing Forex for students, travelers, and those in need of medical attention. It is a very welcome policy. These groups of FX buyers have been unfairly targeted by the CBN since Buhari stepped on the brakes. But according to even the most generous estimates, these people only account for 20% of the Forex demand. Meaning the black market still caters to a majority of the Forex demand.

Even travelers at the Airports would not get dollars, unless they apply weeks in advance via their banks. This is because no bank in this recession will open FX outlets in airports, despite the instruction from CBN to do so. The major reason is that it's a short term measure that also hurts their bottom line.

For the parallel market rate to fall permanently, the CBN has to liberalize the FX market completely. The prohibited import list has to be redacted and no one should be barred from buying dollars at the official rate (whether he/she is a student or a blogger buying web hosting on NameCheap with a Naira card).

While the naira will become more valuable at the parallel market (from 450+ to 400 or less), it will lose value at the official market (from <315 to between 350 and 400) in the medium term. But the basic idea is that the difference between the official and parallel market rates will be less than 50 naira. And probably go back to 2012 levels of less than 10 naira. Basically, the divergence will no longer be business-worthy for speculators.

Unfortunately, the FG and CBN do not want to do this currently for obvious reasons. For example, we do not even have a fiscal economic plan at the moment. Osinbajo, the minister of budget and planning, and Adeosun have been assembling it for more than 12 months now, and they're yet to unwrap it. Also, our FDI levels are not that encouraging. We are also in a biting recession and it appears the economy is finally recovering (so there's good reason to hold back). Then there's the issue of price of fuel which will inevitably rise to N200+ (no one wants the blow back this would lead to).

Speculators are business men who make their living off plummeting currencies. They are like undertakers who make their living off dead people. If no body dies, the undertaker goes out of business. If an economy strengthens and the currency follows suit, speculators move on to another currency).

Saying speculators are unpatriotic and enemies of Nigeria is VERY SILLY. If the government didn't create the environment for them to thrive, they wouldn't thrive. Leave a bread for days and fungi would grow on it. You can't say the fungi are unpatriotic. Their only patriotism is to their survival.

I expect the parallel market rate to climb albeit slowly in the coming weeks to 470. N500/$1 seems like a stretch now and I expect the CBN to make another intervention if the rate crosses that resistance point again.

Until the Naira is fully floated, the speculators are going no where and the illusion of a N400 or less exchange rate in the parallel market will remain a pipe dream.

-Lord

strrev:
Wey tabbaz them

https://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Mike-Tyson-clapping-and-laughing.gif

Earth2Metahuman:
Yeah

Ayam not understanding nigeria's economy again


It has gone beyond logic

abhosts:
Emelife should be Removed. He enforces new policy for 1 week then abandons it.

unclezuma:
It'll get better.