Nigeria Economic Report: Improved Economic Outlook in 2014, and Prospects for Continued Growth Look Good

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

The Nigeria Economic Report cites positive economic trends for the country and predicts higher growth in 2014

The report highlights two potential risks, coming from oil prices and short-term capital flows
The report provides a reassessment of poverty and living standards in Nigeria, concluding that poverty rates are likely lower than previously believed, but highly uneven across Nigerian regions

ABUJA, July 22, 2014 – Nigeria’s short-term economic outlook has improved in 2014 and prospects for continued growth and macroeconomic stability are good in light of increased revenues to the federation, stable foreign reserves and an augmented fiscal reserve fund, according to a new World Bank report. The Nigeria Economic Report (NER) also highlights two remaining risks to the country’s positive economic outlook; uncertainty in oil prices and output, and short-term capital flows.

The report offers a reassessment of poverty and living standards in Nigeria on the basis of newly available data (GHS), concluding that poverty rates may actually be significantly lower than previously estimated. However, there is a strong and growing divide between the Southern and Northern parts of the country in poverty levels.

Using newly-available data on growth, poverty, and living standards, the report gives a clearer picture of general development trends in the country, according to report author John Litwack, World Bank lead economist for Nigeria.

“The combination of the new GDP and poverty estimates is valuable in giving us what we believe to be a clearer picture of development and poverty reduction in Nigeria,” Litwack said. “Both sets of numbers indicate the prime importance of urban areas for growth and poverty reduction.”

Additional key findings of the report include:

Short Term Economic Outlook: Nigeria faced a challenging macroeconomic and budgetary situation in 2013 and early 2014. Oil output decreased, leading to unexpected declines in exports and budgetary revenues. Despite a low benchmark (expected) oil price, oil revenues to the Federation in 2013 were 24.4% lower than expected. The country lost more than $10 billion in external reserves and almost exhausted its fiscal reserve fund (Excess Crude Account). The federal and state governments were compelled to cut expenditures in light of revenue shortfalls. The Naira came under considerable pressure by early 2014.

Macroeconomic trends were considerably more favorable in the second quarter of 2014. Oil revenues to the Federation have increased notably, budgetary revenues to the Federation in the first five months of the year were considerably higher than planned, the Excess Crude Account has received augmentation, and the foreign reserve position has stabilized. The government’s resolve to maintain prudent macroeconomic policy was an important factor in this stabilization.

The NER projects a generally optimistic short-term macroeconomic outlook, with the pace of economic growth accelerating and a likely continuation of the recent positive trends. Nevertheless, two important potentially important destabilizing macroeconomic risks remain; a negative shock to oil prices or oil output, and volatility in short-term capital flows.

A re-assessment of poverty and growth in Nigeria: Macroeconomic data on growth, poverty, and living standards during the last decade have been rather puzzling, Litwack said. On the one hand, the country appeared to be experiencing strong economic growth averaging 7% annually, which was particularly concentrated in the pro-poor areas of agriculture and trade. On the other hand, the national per capita poverty rate remained very high at more than 60% of the population, with little evidence of recent progress in poverty reduction. The recent re-basing of the national accounts, which increased estimated GDP to $509 billion, making Nigeria the 26th largest economy in the world, brought further attention to this puzzle. How could a country of the size and wealth of Nigeria have poverty rates much higher than in surrounding countries like Niger and Benin Republic?

The NER examines new data that would appear to clarify the murky picture of economic development in Nigeria:

· The new (re-based) gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for 2010-2013 offer a very different picture from previous numbers. The pace of annual GDP growth is somewhat slower, averaging 5% during this period.

· The Nigerian economy is revealed to be far more diversified and dynamic than previous numbers would suggest, with significant contributions to growth coming from manufacturing and various services that were underestimated in the past. The nature of this growth implies that it is much more concentrated in urban areas than previously believed. Average growth in agriculture was only 4.2% during 2011-2013, and is estimated to have fallen under to under 3% in each of 2011 and 2013. Thus, growth in agriculture in many rural areas in Nigeria would appear to be not much greater than population growth, which is estimated at close to 3% for the nation.

The NER then provides an updated analysis of poverty and living standards in Nigeria based on a panel survey of 5,000 households that was carried out in 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 as part of the General Household Survey of the Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics. The results are generally consistent with the newly re-based GDP numbers:

· The panel survey gives evidence that the per capital poverty rate (Nigerian definition based on less than 3000 calorie-a-day consumption) is significantly lower than had been previously estimated. From this survey, it is estimated that 33.1% of the population lived below the poverty line in 2012/2013.

· Poverty is much lower in urban areas (12.6%) than in rural areas (44.9%), [/b]and [b]the urban poverty reduction dynamic is much stronger.

The NER also documents major differences in poverty and living standards by macro-region in Nigeria. While the South of Nigeria has relatively low poverty rates, ranging from 16% in the South West to 28.8% in the South East, poverty rates in the North West and North East are 45.9% and 50.2%, respectively. While the South of Nigeria (especially the South West) has experienced a strong positive dynamic in poverty reduction in recent years, the poverty rate in the North West has remained stagnant, while poverty has actually increased in the North East. Thus, disparities between the North (North West, North East) and South of Nigeria in poverty and living standards have increased. This is no doubt related to the recent security challenges in the Northern part of Nigeria. Explanatory factors for the high differences in living standards by geographical region are likely related to differences in the provision of public services and the degree of connectedness to larger markets.

http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nigeria/publication/nigeria-economic-report-improved-economic-outlook-in-2014-and-prospects-for-continued-growth-look-good

Daydreamers.

Obvious to even the blind that Nigeria was better off in 2014 until the Lifeless one took over.

I was better too in 2014 but now? O ye Ọlọ́run.. (only God knows)

The panel survey gives evidence that the per capital poverty rate (Nigerian definition based on less than 3000 calorie-a-day consumption) is significantly lower than had been previously estimated

The per capital poverty rate quadrupled under the dullard.
For someone who did nothing for himself from 1985 to 2015 what did you expect?

We were cruising to eldarado notwithstanding low crude sales and price until Buhari appeared from nowhere and in six months killed all economic prospects by instilling fear and uncertainty in the market and foreign direct investments.

In all aspects Nigeria was better off until 2016..

Personally.. I was in foreign medical school abroad and i know how much 2016 affected my allowances.
Standard of living fell by 300%..

For example..someone who got 200k monthly then had above 1k dollars to pay his bills..

Fastforward to 2016 and 2017.. dollar sold above 400 ) before coming down to 360). So that same 200k now becomes less than 500dollars. Now this is despite the fact that ur sponsors means of livelihood is even doing more and more worse too due to poor spending powers of his clients..

So in all facets of it , Nigeria got worse and is still going worster under Buhari..

You don't have to tell it to an Oyibo man in Igbo. It is only cows that are enjoying this government.

On behalf of d govt and it's lifeless supporters " Dis report is obviously sponsored by d PDP"

Ok

just before that terrorist came to power

That was when we have a president that is full of life not that lifeless fellow in aso rock.
"other president went to America and sign a multi million dollar deal that'll benefit their people, but the lifeless one went there to shine teeth ,waste our money and com back with nothin"

unohbethel:
Ok


just before that terrorist came to power

you mean the lifeless one ?

Lifeless wailing zombies and piggish pigs are too hilarious, here is what the Finance Minister said about the economy then and oil was more than $70 per barrel. Bunch of whining Jokers

All thanks to the lifeless president

The report included
the urban poverty reduction dynamic is much stronger.

Poverty was fast reducing in our urban areas until Buhari appeared and dashed our hopes

[s]

vedaxcool:
Lifeless wailing zombies and piggish pigs are too hilarious, here is what the Finance Minister said about the economy then and oil was more than $70 per barrel. Bunch of whining Jokers

[/s]

Facts don't lie.
Don't argue with me, argue with the World Bank report.

Mynd44 lalasticala this guy is quoting a July 2014 article.

Okonjo Iweala warning came in November 2014. Clearly indicating our lifeless wailing zombies are eating poo as usual over nothing

Here we go again

Prepare to meet your vain

In Buhari's Daura reign

A token but a change

A futile, shallow aim

dukie25:
[s]

Facts don't lie.
Don't argue with me, argue with the World Bank report.

[/s]

Facts don't matter to you argue with Okonjo or is she also a lifeless dullard?

vedaxcool:
[s][/s]

Facts don't matter to you argue with Okonjo or is she also a lifeless dullard?

I told you to argue with world Bank, didn't I? Anyway check the image below, this was before Bubu asked the world Bank to concentrate on Northern Nigeria.... Enjoy.

[s]

dukie25:


I told you to argue with world Bank, didn't I?

[/s]

I told you to argue with Okonjo Iweala who was Finance Minister then in the world Bank when this report was written who warned Nigeria should brace for hard times despite this report

millhouse:
you mean the lifeless one ?

bro he has many titles like this one below


just that the lifeless one is the most recent one

vedaxcool:
[s][/s]

I told you to argue with Okonjo Iweala who was Finance Minister then in the world Bank when this report was written who warned Nigeria should brave for hard times despite this report

You have time for those epileptic mouth foaming miscreants.

They want to talk about how the nation was in 2014 on the eve of a great recession which registered worldwide despite the warnings made by Okonjo iweala that then Finance minister in that same govetnment.

You know, I am beginning to think that the major reason GEJ conceded defeat was because this country would have been rendered valueless if he had continued because he knew all the massive looting and mismanagement that went on under him and he knew that if he had continued, then Nigerians would have lynched him by the time recession hit.

However, PMB did an awesome job bringing us out of reaccession in just 1 year which took Venezuela in the same year to a place of no return regarding their economy.

Once you loot foreign reserves the extent GEJ did then he clearly had no plan for the eventual recession so he threw in the towel as the clueless one he has always been.

Looters media crew assignment now is to dig up all reports pre 2015 which show Nigeria was allegedly better while they also ignore how we got to suffer the recession so much due to the nonsensical leading of their brother GEJ the ogogoro chugger.

Butterflyleo:


You have time for those epileptic mouth foaming miscreants.

They want to talk about how the nation was in 2014 on the eve of a great recession which registered worldwide despite the warnings made by Okonjo iweala that then Finance minister in that same govetnment.

You know, I am beginning to think that the major reason GEJ conceded defeat was because this country would have been rendered valueless if he had continued because he knew all the massive looting and mismanagement that went on under him and he knew that if he had continued, then Nigerians would have lynched him by the time recession hit.

However, PMB did an awesome job bringing us out of reaccession in just 1 year which took Venezuela in the same year to a place of no return regarding their economy.

Once you loot foreign reserves the extent GEJ did then he clearly had no plan for the eventual recession so he threw in the towel as the clueless one he has always been.

Looters media crew assignment now is to dig up all reports pre 2015 which show Nigeria was allegedly better while they also ignore how we got to suffer the recession so much due to the nonsensical leading of their brother GEJ the ogogoro chugger.

Omo see tackling, they say we should talk about how we got here but only the have the rights to talk about the past. They are as useless as used tissue paper

you can see a slight drop in 2009 during the world economic crisis and then continuous growth this it peaked in 2014 and as been going down since.
GDP growth is important because it correlates with the reduction in poverty levels over time.
GEJ was incompetent but he was willing to learn and adjust his stands when confronted with reality and the mechanics of the economy. Buhari on the contrary is not interested in genuine growth but in maintaining the status quo and sharing whatever money coming into the central account. While other African Countries with more intelligent leaders are growing consistently. For example Ethiopia below, sure our economy may not be the same size but annual growth should be consistent.

vedaxcool:


Omo see tackling, they say we should talk about how we got here but only the have the rights to talk about the past. They are as useless as used tissue paper

You would be insulting used tissue papers if you compare them to used tissue paper.

Uses Tissue paper still holds more value than they do.

Butterflyleo:


You would be insulting used tissue papers if you compare them to used tissue paper.

Uses Tissue paper still holds more value than they do.

Lol

vedaxcool:
Mynd44 lalasticala this guy is quoting a July 2014 article.

Okonjo Iweala warning came in November 2014. Clearly indicating our lifeless wailing zombies are eating poo as usual over nothing

so okonjo iweala has suddenly become a hero abi. The woman you lots called all manner of unprintable names. Shame on you all. It is now clear to you tribalists and religious bigots that you lots are the causes of our general suffering today in Nigeria.

vedaxcool:
Mynd44 lalasticala this guy is quoting a July 2014 article.

Okonjo Iweala warning came in November 2014. Clearly indicating our lifeless wailing zombies are eating poo as usual over nothing

so okonjo iweala has suddenly become a hero abi. The woman you lots called all manner of unprintable names. Shame on you all. It is now clear to you from the west side and religious bigots that you lots are the causes of our general suffering today in Nigeria.

Okay

Hian