₦airaland Forum

exper:
I agree with you that business will always involve risk. Nobody can eliminate risk completely, and if someone waits for a business where nothing can go wrong, they may never start anything.

But I think there is an important difference between taking a risk and taking an unmanaged risk.

Dangote doesn't eliminate the possibility of workers stealing, accidents happening, or a business making losses. The difference is that large businesses put systems, controls, insurance, audits, proper records and accountability in place to reduce the damage when things go wrong.

So I wouldn't say “don't worry about what can go wrong.” I'd say understand what can go wrong, calculate the potential damage, put measures in place, and then take the risk.

Courage gets you into business. Good risk management helps you stay in business.

exper:
I agree with you that life and business involve risk, and being too afraid of risk can definitely stop someone from taking worthwhile opportunities.

My point isn't that someone shouldn't venture into farming. It's that when we're discussing an investment publicly, we should separate what can happen from what we should reasonably expect.

You're right that someone can rear goats for two years without losing a single animal. Just as you've assumed a 20% mortality rate, someone could also build a model using zero mortality and then stress-test it with higher mortality, feed costs or lower selling prices.

That's actually how I'd approach it: calculate the optimistic case, the expected case and the bad case.

If the investment still makes sense in the bad case, then you have a much stronger business decision.

And I agree with your main point: risk shouldn't automatically mean don't invest; it should mean understand what you're risking and why.

exper:
That's possible under favourable conditions, but I'd be careful about treating ₦1.3 million–₦1.8 million net profit as a realistic expectation without seeing the actual calculation.

With farming, the outcome can change significantly depending on feed costs, mortality, disease, labour, theft, weather, crop yield and the market price when you're ready to sell.

And even with goats, the assets don't automatically double or triple “without stress.” Reproduction can increase the herd, but so can the costs and risks of keeping them.

I'd be interested to see your numbers though.

If you start with ₦1 million, how exactly would you allocate it between the five goats and tomato/pepper farming, and what expenses are you deducting before arriving at that ₦1.3m–₦1.8m net profit?

exper:
That's a practical approach. You're thinking about using the ₦1 million to acquire productive assets rather than simply spending it.....

How much profit do you estimate the five goats and the tomato/pepper farming could realistically generate after all expenses?

olawooro:
Invest in my yam farm project . Another planting commences in October through February.

Yam is profitable

ModestManager:
Note:: HEM, is the tip or edge of for instance a dress, or curtain.....etc
:: HELM is taking control of something, eg affairs of state, ship or car driving, management leader, etc.

Cheers.